Military Review

"Everything is exactly the same for them."

Every time I have a conversation about the prospects of serious battles in the Donbas, about the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, about the deplorable state of some issues in the buildings of the People’s Militia of the DPR and LPR, somewhere in the comments to the original or to one Inevitably, a person with an unkillable argutment, "They have everything exactly the same." Well, without any of my posts lovers neighing over European integrators runs up the sea. Finally, I was finished off by the reaction of the Internet patriots to the arms exhibition in Kiev. Nothing, not noticed, except for "Tortilla", made by a Ukrainian farmer, and the antenna in the form of a swastika. They laughed at the Maximov parka.

Morons, I apologize for the expression. Blind and deaf morons. So that you laughed so much, citizens, over the recent zrada, which happened in the Russian MO with "proof of the connection of Americans with LIH."

There was no time, now I will single out the day, sit down, I will write to you, dear citizens, how it all really is "from that side." As usual - a picture to attract attention.

"Everything is exactly the same for them."

In the picture, if that, a very simple, but quite effective wooden mock-up of an AGS automatic grenade launcher, designed to be installed in a false position.

1. Guide.

With all its intellectual insignificance, theft, quarrelsomeness, and with all sorts of various negative qualities, the Ukrainian ruling elite has the main thing - a clear understanding that they need to win this war at all costs. With Poroshenko, with Saakashvilli, with anyone. The American owners explained to all of them popularly that no one needs them who lost the war there, in the West. Have you won? Yes, you are freedom fighters, an outpost of Western Civilization and other "Danke, Voldemar!". Lost? Vile corrupt officials who plundered foreign loans. The Ukrainian elite has the goal of complete victory, and for it, any negotiations with the Russian Federation, whether in Minsk or peacekeepers, are an instrument to bargain for themselves more advantageous positions for a final decision. From here, from this situation, the whole situation grows with the implementation of the Minsk Agreements, when they force us to strictly observe them, and the Ukrainian side wanted to shit on them. Rolled out to the front Tanks and work all day until you get bored. And, naturally, Western friends allow them to do this. And ours can afford full-fledged work in response only occasionally. The result - the enemy squeezes the "gray zone" where he can, and over time he feels more and more confident on the front line.

2. Mobilization potential.

There is one simple answer to morons telling that "They are all the same way." It sounds like "And how will this help us if there are five times more of them?" In order to win with such a balance of power, it is necessary that all your personnel be in the level of training and motivation on your head, two heads taller than your opponent. And so that all random factors come out in your favor. Most of the well-known victories in the world military stories they are known not so much because they were defeated against a numerically superior opponent, but rather because they were decisive victories. But they were victories over the enemy with comparable forces.

The rest of Ukraine, even weakened by emigration (mostly those who would not have come to the front for various reasons), is still many times larger than Donbass in terms of the number of conscript troops. And, a key moment, on the other side CALLING ARMY. Once again, for the dull. There, in a large country, there is a military draft army, here, in two small republics, there are volunteer armies forced by the Minsk Agreements to serve and live by peacetime patterns. With all the consequences of this wild difference. The enemy during the three years of the war, after driving through the front tens of thousands of "mobilized", created a significant personnel reserve. Moreover, the call allowed them to massively drag technicians into the troops, whom the general situation in the country, competently kept at the required level of universal poverty, led them to stay there. And with which the "Western Allies" distribute any useful non-lethal, which we will talk about separately. At the same time, the call allows the enemy to support a much larger percentage of “young stock” in parts, which, due to youth and health, will be more combat-ready. Here, for example, in the summer of 15, the fighter-signalist, in years already uncle, began to lose consciousness when we were in 30 + degrees of heat and weighed down the heavy radio station P-173 into a tank. And how would he, at the same temperatures, work in combat continuously for a day or two?

3. Propaganda.

The Ukrainian propaganda, by virtue of the very situation in which it is carried out, turns out to be more logical than the propaganda on our part, no matter how slag the “actual” content of this Ukrainian propaganda is. It’s difficult for our propaganda to explain to a soldier why he must abide by the Minsk Agreements, which resulted in the Donbass returning to Ukraine. Although everyone understands that no, voluntarily, without a fight, will not return. "Well and what for?" And then there's this Danyne comes out and says, "No, you did not understand, we will return, we will return to Ukraine! Without options." Schizophrenia is direct.

And the enemy propaganda is logical. Moreover, the fact that at times she is quite fit for herself, reality throws things up to her, and she, being calm, will twist and turn them to her advantage. Here, in May 2015-th were caught by two Grushnikov, having listened to stories about suckers-baboons-Maydauns, and the enemy now has evidence that "We are fighting against the Russian special forces!". Lupanula successfully art on them - "This is the Russians have gone." The sniper began to work well - "the Russians have entered, the GRU special forces". Any success - "the victory over the Russian-terrorist forces." The enemy becomes more confident. What he needs.

Speaking of propaganda. Tell me, dear friends, the first "cauldron" of this war. Southern? Ilovaisky? Not. The first cauldron of this war was Slavic. From which, however, most of the militia burst. There were separate successful battles, raids, ambushes, DRG raids, successful artillery attacks using a few then-mortars and artes, downed airplanes and helicopters, but the battles for Yampol showed that even a very amorphous army that somehow came to life and gathered art together , armor and infantry even with some kind of control at the head successfully disperse lightly armed militia. A large, overwhelming part of the military operations of the 2014 summer militia is the defense of varying degrees of success with occasional counterattacks. When VSUshniki stretched along the border, ours managed to temporarily cut off the so-called “gut”, and then they unblocked it and pulled out a significant amount of their forces from it, and at that time the militia broke through from another boiler, Lysychansky. And in August, the Lugansky cauldron almost took place. The militia, disunited, devoid of full unified control and full supply, eventually managed to play only the role of an anvil for the hammer of the North Wind.

Even then, the APU slowly began to "swing" and, no matter how large losses in equipment and personnel they suffered in August 2014, the battles for Debaltseve were very heavy, any tactical mistake committed by ours immediately followed the punishment, and not at all necessarily for this was the presence on the other side of some kind of super special forces or mercenaries.

Since then, more than one year has passed. Already more than two and a half years have passed. Already since then, apart from the constant exchange of fire and sorties, Marinka, twice - big battles on the Svetlodar arc, the entry of dill on Avdeevskaya Promku and stubborn defense there, Zhelobok was this summer. And the attitude of many, those who are not directly involved in all of this, towards the enemy, who in all these clashes showed that he is constantly learning, is still at the level of anecdotes from the fall of 2014 - “In which boiler did they serve?”. The time is right for the question - who in the end is more "stupefied with propaganda"?

In the 2017 year, on the other side of the front, not a “lost” conscript of the 2014 summer pattern sits in a trench, but a fully trained, motivated, stubborn, stupid soldier. Who runs the same officer, who knows his business.

4. Frames

When it became obvious that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had transferred all their radio communications, above the level of a company, into a “closed number”, it became envious of me not so much in terms of equipment, but in terms of the fact that the enemy had enough trained personnel for this. Whatever typical sores the Ukrainian system of training army personnel was ill with, in 2014 she began to recover. The first Ukrainian training manuals on combat and conduct on the front came across to me in September of 2014, abandoned by grateful readers in the fields south of Donzek. I didn’t have a phone with a camera at that time, so pictures of this beautiful little book did not survive, and there many points were quite clearly explained, including, for example, street fighting. Then there was a booklet in Debala, which, apart from the recommendations, had basic and reserve dreams and split the personality without waiting for schizophrenia, there was also an adequate compilation from the western field manuals. This year came the book for the infantry "Destruction of Russian tanks". Not without the Aryan physics book, but mostly there is a useful detailed description of the vulnerabilities of armored vehicles and the fire capabilities of anti-tank rifle weapons from the Second World War to modern anti-tank systems.

And it was the case that somehow our infantrymen were dragged by artillerymen from the battle, a notebook of Ukrainian artillery officer with notes and tasks found in enemy positions. The conclusion of the commander-artillery from our side was unequivocal - the owner of the notebook knows his business at a good level, would take this to himself. And by the way VSA works, it is clear that there are quite a few of them.

The enemy snipers began to systematically prepare as soon as he was given time for this. Realizing that the truce will pour out into a long-term trench seat, the enemy with his right hand signed “Minsk”, and with his left - orders for mass selection and training of snipers. He has a team of snipers in the states of the brigades, we have a platoon. And now we have sections of the front on which our “heads do not lift”. As a result of long and fruitful work -
the appearance of large-caliber snipers in the trained riflemen of the enemy, significantly increasing the range of their effective work.

Let's solve a simple logical puzzle. The enemy prepares shots. The enemy does this constantly and continuously, starting from the very beginning of the war, attracting, among other things, hundreds of highly qualified foreign specialists. The enemy initially had more resources for this, and he continued to streamline and increase these resources over time, continuing to exceed us in this matter. In this case, the enemy has the advantage in manpower and mobresurs. The question is: what will the permanent, perennial fights with this adversary end in, in which the sides suffer commensurate losses? Right. They will result in the depletion of human resources on our part and, in parallel with this, their unqualification. Moreover, these two processes will mutually urge each other. So it gradually happens.

5. "Non-lethal" foreign aid.

I think that for morons who repeat “No“ Javelins ”will not help them!”, It will be an incredible discovery that without the Javelins and without any lethal content at all, foreign aid has already helped the enemy very well. Western hosts shared and continue to share optics with the APU, including night radio, digital radio communications, EW equipment and artillery radars. The equipment is transmitted to tens and hundreds of millions of dollars. The results - the superiority of the enemy in night optics, the transition of the enemy to digital communications, the operational and accurate response from the Ukrainian artillery during artillery duels becomes the rule rather than the exception, as in 14.

Even a huge amount of green military iron will be useless without optics and communication. In the presence of both, the required amount of "iron" and BC to it decreases. Western masters understand this very well and pump up the Ukrainian Armed Forces with modern means of communication and surveillance.

6. Technical equipment of the enemy in general.

For some reason, it turned out that for some divisions of our sofa forces, the solution of technical equipment of the enemy is associated exclusively with the most inadequate production of Ukrainian media. With the young lady who offered to sew magnets into body armor to attract bullets sideways, and with a boy who shows an innovative configuration of armor on a cardboard tank. The reaction to the recent arms exhibition in Kiev clearly showed how narrowly the Chinese comrades look at the problem. Here, for example, post bmpd pro famous armored tractor. 400 + comments. But the reaction to homemade machines for the PCT and the pair of Maximovs, to the antenna in the form of a swastika. And I somehow, you know, looking at the Maximov’s Spark, I think not that the machine looks ridiculous, but that this Spark itself successfully replaces the PKM enemy for some fixed position, and This PCM will work on our mobile version somewhere else. The mass production of tripods for PCT is also quite a logical and sensible step in a trench war. PKTshny barrel in a well-fortified firing point is a beautiful thing, and the enemy in the warehouses have such machine guns in quantity.

Here is another abyss of wit. All neigh on the Ukrainian drone, which put the RPK and RPG. "Will not fly." Laugh laugh, and 82-mm mines they are already closest to the nearest to the front. It seems to be a safe place, but here is an opanka, and without any "exhaust" sounds, a very nasty shit quietly falls from above. The “Physics” towel, the photo of which I posted in one of the reports, it was after such a discharge of 82-mm mines that it acquired its present form. Not only grenades are dumped, but also such gifts.

From the fact that it would really be worth discussing, the focus of attention of our careless hurray-patriots was perhaps that a contract with the Turks for the purchase of radio communications. There are far fewer comments, but they are still as beautiful as in the case of an armored vehicle. “It’s enough for them all for one brigade! Muhahaha! Let the others send messengers!” And what, in the LPR or the DPR could at least one brigade be completely transferred to digital communication?

The reality, especially in view of the last paragraph, is that the Turks are going to make a cheap version of the connection for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Motorola Standard of the closed DMR, and she, to put it mildly, is alarming. That the Turkish stations, that the Ukrainian complexes on the basis of "Motorol", already put on the equipment.

Installation on T-72AMT of new digital radio stations from the Turkish company Aselsan and Ukrainian Lybid K2 will help not only improve the quality of communication, but also reliably protect it. Also, these radio stations allow tank crews of the direction to maintain contact with infantry units, is of great importance for interaction on the battlefield. In addition, the modification of the T-72AMT received modern satellite navigation aids. Another area of ​​modernization was the improvement of the working conditions of the crew. Even the usual rear-view camera greatly facilitates the work of the driver.

The stations "Lybid К2", in fact - adapters for integration into the tank TPU of motor scooter "bases", produce hundreds of pieces. The Armed Forces of Ukraine receive and to a significant degree have received what is not and is not foreseen in the "corps" of the LC and the DPR - encrypted radio communication of armor with infantry. Anyone who has at least some modernized war with armor will confirm how much possession of this option at the level of everyday everyday skill increases the level of troops' effectiveness and reduces their losses. Plus, each car with such a station is a long, for tens of kilometers, “shoulder” of a closed connection with the base for any combat group that includes it.
There is not a single motorized rifle or tank battalion in the LPR, nor in the DPR, in which all light armor or, respectively, all tanks would be equipped with a closed digital communication, no. I know one territorial battalion of the LC, where, thanks to the efforts of the volunteers and the help of sympathetic people, something like this may be possible. Vso.

The equipment itself, repaired or restored from that found at the storage bases, is also received by the APU. I am glad, of course, to the optimism of our patriotic commentators - "only thirty tanks!" - but the enemy has in the rear, they have not gone anywhere and military factories continue to work. And still Soviet-time training cadres remained in quantity, allowing the work and repair of machines. Not without marriage, not without lazhi, not without sabotage, probably, but the equipment goes to the troops. A multi-million successfully propagated country is desperate to win the war. A bunch of companies deals with a variety of issues. For example, they made a relatively cheap EW complex. The dream of intelligence, especially artillery, any brigade of the LC or the DNI. That's just, alas, "does not shine" is.

By the way, a lot of our patriots bellowed over the "fences" of the gratings on the Ukrainian machinery, until they saw exactly the same ones covering the rear part of the "Armata". BROWN! It turned out that if this seemingly primitive design is made with certain parameters, it is quite effective against standard RPG shots. The epidemic of bed nets and window grids in the Armed Forces of Ukraine passed, they put, basically, factory grids of the correct configuration, tested on Soviet tanks in Afghanistan. I already, in my opinion, wrote about the situation during Debaly, when multiple hits from an RPG to a Ukrainian armored personnel carrier could not make a car because of such grids. More laugh?

7. That's specifically about the "Javelina".

Especially, separately I will write a piece for fans of the mantra "Do not help them" Javelins "!". Dear optimists! They and without "Dzhavelinov", the old Soviet anti-tank guides, do an excellent job. As I already wrote, getting into the near rear of ours and working with an ATGM on a car carrying people and / or cargo to the front line, it became their usual work exercise for reconnaissance. They need "Javelins" for a specific task - to stop possible attempts of tank counter-attacks from the "corps". Weapon compact and effective, deploying it will be difficult to detect, and the effect, if successful, is enormous, especially if the interaction of tanks with infantry remains at the same level, easily killed by enemy EW. Operators they, I assure you, will find. The main advantages, compared with the Soviet ATGM, are a tandem warhead, automatic flight control after launch, and a trajectory that makes it possible to hit a tank in the roof of a turret or military procurement system. Naturally, certain measures can reduce the vulnerability of our old T-64 and T-72 for Javelins. Naturally, it is possible on the battlefield to create a lot of noise. The question is how well it will be possible to create this interference in the situation of hasty preparation and execution of strikes, as is usually the case.

8. "They have no shells, all the warehouses have burned down."

How would you explain the situation with Soviet weapons and the BC for Ukraine so that it is clear? First, not all burned out. Secondly, there were plants. Thirdly, the victory of Ukraine in the Russian-Ukrainian war is very important for the United States, who are the masters of NATO, so they will search for and find the enemy the Soviet BC. If necessary, it will be produced at enterprises in Eastern Europe. It will be necessary - equipment will be brought from there to Ukraine and will be manufactured there. Given the rearmament of all others in Eastern Europe under NATO standards, this will not be so difficult. Here, for example, Lithuania took in 2016 and handed over its 150 tons of military cargo, mostly 5,45-mm cartridges, to its Ukrainian colleagues on suffering from the "Soviet occupation". And this is just one supply of those that became known. Fourth, endless echelons of ammunition are needed for a long war or mass training of personnel. There are already personnel in the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the quantity, for the week of battles, namely, they will need it so much to “clean up the Donbass” in the scenario of a moderate degree of optimism, they will definitely find the BC themselves and, I believe, there will be a lot more for later. No need for illusions on this topic.

9. Intelligence service.

Let it be known that the enemy is doing well with intelligence. Starting from monitoring social networks and ending with the usual front-line intelligence of the level "quietly crawling behind the" language, "although none of the parties have a special meaning, apart from sports and training interest, in this kind of work. “Phantoms” to big “birds", radio interception works and, what is more important, interception of GSM traffic in the front line. The war has been going on for more than three years. The enemy is aware of all the main points he needs. He is aware of the organizational structure People’s militia corps tours, basing on locations, warehouses, fleets of vehicles, staffs. There are no special wartime restrictions on civilian movements except in the LC and the DPR. How to isolate the enemy agents in the huge flow of 2014 returning from the events 21 century in the courtyard, radio transmitters are no longer needed for agents, there is enough Internet, I think at the moment there are no agents for dill in every battalion, and you can’t say that the enemy spy . Because such a person, unlike the rest of the personnel, tormented by the uncertainty of the position of the republics, lack of money, squabbles and squabbles, will be careful in their work, friendly, reasonable and obligatory. Sober, at times - demonstratively. And it will be very attentive to listen to conversations in smoking rooms and quietly help intrigues against the most sane commanders. Him for his work money drips from the other side of the front. He served in one place for a year, brought there godfather to his place, he himself waited for a profitable offer and transferred to another part. I would do that. The fact that I am more or less able to guess the course of the opponent’s thoughts was demonstrated by the story of “female DRGs”.

10. "Russia will definitely intervene."

Here is this thesis, made in the title of the last "license" section, especially dear to me. Separately, he is dear to me in the performance of nefashista Steshina, the author of this nice presentation of Putin’s Cunning Plan. The person who tells us about what information sabotage and “humming” are, he himself writes, saying, why do you need tangents? You do not know how to use them. You are appointed cannon fodder, who will pay the price for the cowardice of our leadership in 2014. Sit, wait for the dill to surround you and begin to soak, Arta and "Grads" in urban areas. That's when there will be a beautiful bloody picture of the victims of the bloody Kiev fascists, then Russia, perhaps, will send in troops and save everyone. This is exactly what Steshin’s beautiful phrase “the most hilarious is that you don’t understand that the role of these corps (even with a year’s supply of tangent) is similar to that of the Ossetian militia in 2008.”

Not from this idiot alone, I heard such a statement of the question. Apparently, those who tell them this as a “version of events that should be voiced,” are naively confident that they will easily and easily repeat the 2008 of the year made during the war, when in battles for one metropolitan city they defeated the grouping in 12 000 Georgians without combat experience with 75 tanks, or 2014 events of the year, when the unmobilized Ukrainian army was hit with a hammer "Northern wind" while goring with the "anvil" of the militia. Here, with the army, which is fighting a real war for the third year, there will be a completely different conversation.

Well, the main thing is precisely because the entire policy of military construction in the DPR and LPR, briefly described by the above-mentioned replica of Steshin, is built around "Hold on for a couple of days, and then Russia will come and save everyone," the enemy will try to build a situation The issue is maximum smudunia. The United States and its allies will make every effort not only to “press” the current Kiev in terms of a decision to attack or change the leadership to very hardcore Mishiko upright bears, but also to Moscow to create maximum problems in domestic and foreign policy. Here, for example, what can our Western partners spice up the election-2018
- banal financial pressure
- the next claims to Russian companies abroad, arrests of accounts and property
- repression against the property of Russian officials abroad
- mass protests inside the country (the atmosphere of economic stagnation contributes, plus the first and second points)
- another round of hype around the downed Boeing with well-promoted attempts to prove that the Russian Federation is to blame
- surprises in Syria, in connection with which military resources, primarily personnel, will be urgently needed to be connected there
In short, they will drive “collective Putin” into the decision on non-intervention, just as Milosevic was driven into the same decision in the case of the Serbian Krajina. Ideally, they will try to create the appearance of the possibility of retaining power during the surrender of the Donbass, and then, after the surrender, they will finish off. People know how, they have "the overthrow of hostile regimes" for a long time no longer high art, but routine technology. And the bet was made, including on those who would launch a record in the media, “Nobody promised anything to the Donbas, but the Donbass itself couldn’t do anything.”

Accordingly, the task of the APU will be set as soon as possible to split the republic into parts, to go to the border with the Russian Federation and block it as quickly as possible, while the Russian leadership doubts about the deployment of troops. In terms of doubt, by the way, the summer of 2014 is very, very significant.

How do I imagine the progress of such an operation? Judging by the individual elements that the enemy has been working on in different places over the last couple of years, everything will look something like this.

1. I suppose the adversary will manage at some suddenness. The specifics of the location of the troops of the DPR and LPR on the front line in the form of a chain of observation posts with meager filling with personnel will not require from the Ukrainian Armed Forces any special concentration of forces on the front line. The same elections in the Russian Federation are a completely legitimate reason to maintain for some time "increased combat". "Suddenly, Putin decides to arrange a small victorious war?" And at some point, this increased combat readiness will simply be implemented. Just like the Russian troops, after the regular exercises, remained to "secure" South Ossetia, the dill will mask in the rotations they carry out the concentration of BC and fuels and lubricants on the front lines.

2. At the same time, in the morning, neutralization of advanced NPs and sabotage in technology parks will begin on the “branches”. Also, together with the groups that will be responsible for the rapid neutralization of the NP on the front line, the DRGs will be assigned the task of which they will be ambushed with ATGMs on the ways of advancing the vehicle to the front line. DRG, abandoned in advance, will receive tasks on the locations of various units. I would expect a full set of DRG-troubles, including snipers, sitting opposite the headquarters buildings in Donetsk and Lugansk or at the approaches to them, land mines in vehicles parked at the entrances to the headquarters. The history of terrorist attacks in the republics simply cries for such a prospect. As for the rear technology parks, in a relaxed atmosphere of a kind-like-deep-rear, a pair of experienced female cheaters, already familiar with the place, with appropriately “treated” moonshine can easily neutralize the protection of such a park. Further - it is trivial.

3. Most of the NP, especially those on which there was a lull in previous days and slight relaxation reigns, will not even have time to squeak. EW, which is now successfully run in places of more active hostilities, crush mobile phones and unpretentious walkie-talkies. Find and cut the vole, which, due to the shortage, prokinut on the shortest distances, on the surface, also does not make much work, if it is needed at all. Although, most likely, just spetsur with PNVshnikami and silent weapons will work on the observers and climb into the trenches.

4. As soon as the battles for the most persistent NP begin, the Ukrainian artillery will start working on the headquarters to make it harder to control, and according to advanced positions, to prevent those who are there from moving to the trenches. By suppressing and capturing advanced NP, in previously explored places, and reconnaissance of this kind of dill is carried out, they will be able to get infantry with tanks and light armor that will block the bulk of our first line forces in advanced locations in front-line settlements. The management of even the most advanced of these groups at this moment will be much clearer than the management on our part. The result of the first hours of the "big war" will be that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will prevent the full-scale deployment of our brigades to "cover positions." The command of the brigades and the corps, if it gets to workplaces past ambushes and shell explosions, finds that it urgently needs to assemble its parts piece by piece — tanks — here, art — here, infantry — here. How many such processes take up in the "corps" showed a year ago the battles at Svetlodarke.

5. Alas, the constant blatant non-observance by the enemy of “Minsk” has made it customary for our troops to have the enemy on the front of the entire spectrum of heavy equipment, even tanks. Accordingly, to successfully launch an offensive, he will not have to pull anything from the depths, and at that moment, when the columns still go, already the second echelon of the column, ours will not be up to them - the first echelon will go deep enough, disrupting the deployment of our forces. If control is still preserved on our side, ours will be busy trying to assemble battle groups from pieces, refuel them and equip BCs to stop the enemy’s advancement and help out troops fighting on the first strongholds of support, around front-line buildings, and so on. It will be very similar to May 1940 or June 1941.

6. Based on the available data, I assume that some conditional “stabilization” after a couple of days of quite a colorful tent will occur along the boundaries of the buildings, and in many places the APU will not only be able to circumvent these resistance nodes, but also “hook” on these buildings. The main battles will unfold, IMHO, east of the Donetsk-Lugansk line and will “spin” around the enemy’s desire to launch their tentacles far away to the border and in parallel - close the encirclement rings around Donetsk and Luhansk. Inspired by the first successes, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will pull up new forces from the depths, from our side improvised fighting groups will be formed from the most diverse people - from military officers and volunteers who came to military registration offices to various departmental superspecial forces, which will be supplied by equipment that was scraped from linear parts, infantry whose linear parts will already rapidly end. At this stage, which will last several days, everything will be decided by the product of the number of forces and the quality of their management, the degree of their homogeneity and the quality of training. All the text I had previously written says that the product of this opponent will be higher. The huge crowd of men, which was expelled under the lenses of cameras and drones, demonstrating the "mobilization reserve" of the DPR, is just a crowd of men. Prepared, "harmonious", fully managed and equipped military units - this is quite different. This is a lot of time and money.

How will these battles differ from the battles of the summer of 2014?
- we will have an opponent with the experience of three years of war, who knows exactly what he wants and how he will achieve it
- the number of the group will be larger and will increase, and the "lost" conscripts, who in the summer of 2014, after fleeing their officers, changed into a citizen and ran off to surrender, there will be a minimum number in its ranks
- the percentage of efficient equipment will be much higher
- equipping with electronics, communication and control equipment, EW equipment will be absolutely incomparable with 2014. Cellular communication and unprotected radio communication of the enemy will mercilessly crush.

The “fate of the campaign” will be decided somewhere in the range from D + 2 to D + 6 in maneuver battles in the already mentioned zone east of the Lugansk-Donetsk line. The more enemy forces will be constrained in other places, in battles around the perimeter of the buildings held by ours, the less he will have the strength to throw them into the steppe meat grinders, deciding the question of surrounding our forces, entering the border with the Russian Federation and blocking it.

The fact that "There is all the same," I would not hope from the word "absolutely." What do I suggest to hope for? Actually, I don’t offer any hope, everything is bad for me with hopes and faiths. I suggest COUNTING instead. What do I propose to count on?

First, the fact that all those who still remained in the armies of the DPR and LNR with experience and desire to fight, serve and endure all the marasmic service of the service only for the moment when they are allowed to shoot at the enemy and kill him without any restrictions. There is simply the inevitable contagious berserk.

Secondly, with all the disadvantages of the heterogeneity of the level of training units on our side, which will allow the enemy in some places to go through the line of contact and cover position "like a knife through butter", there is a small plus - in the case of such an offensive, the units are more monolithic, a higher level of training will become centers of resistance capable of building up and directing this resistance. And it is reasonable to manage those additions that will appear from among those who fled from the rules of association or volunteers returning from the Russian Federation.

Third - long live surprises. Somewhere instead of the silent cutting-out of the advanced NP, it will happen like on the Groove - a stubborn fight from the very beginning. And not in one place, I believe, intelligence, thanks to optics and UAVs, will still allow active movement of the enemy in time and local commanders will send reinforcements to the NP. Somewhere large groups of the enemy advancing into the “breaches” will still encounter land mines and controlled minefields, in which it will be covered by a combat-ready, timed alarm on an armament. And then it will also work through its headquarters and near-rear concentration points. Somewhere there will be groups of highly motivated snipers with good optics who will slow down the advancement of enemy battle groups, somewhere tanks and infantry will get at least some connection between themselves and will be able to work out counter-attacks. Far from everywhere, not very much everywhere, but in some places, in a significant number of places, this will happen. Actually, our work, the Coordination Center for Assistance to New Russia, is aimed not only at helping the military republics in the current trench warfare, but also at making it possible for our people to present the enemy with the maximum of such unpleasant surprises in a situation of maneuvering war. I do not like to sit on the ass and hope for something, I love to do something in order to improve the situation.

In general, "The sun rose, Savinyak approached" (c).

If my inflorescences seem too bleak to someone, read the July interview by the fareastener, which so many tried to show me in terms of, "Here he does not panic like you."

- Is the general offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine possible?
- Theoretically yes. If the Ukrainians decide on this and throw all their forces into battle, they will roll us out in about a day.

No paneks, yes. I am talking about some D + 2, D + 6, and Zhenya just does not give more than a day in the case of non-interference of Russia. Who among us is an optimist, who is a pessimist?

Now I allow myself some conclusions from the above.

I. The man taratori "They are all the same," a fool or a pest to choose from. Firstly, it is not so, secondly, as has already been said, even if it is so, what will it help us if there are at least five times more of them?

Ii. The person telling you that you do not understand that the role of these corps (even with an annual supply of tangent) is similar to that of the Ossetian militia in the 2008 year, a pest or fool working on pests to choose from. Because in the event of the defeat of the “corps” by NM of the LC and the DNI, the salvation of Donbass and “non-interference of Russia into a big war”, for which, allegedly, all these “Minski” were started, will become mutually exclusive paragraphs.

Iii. People who argue about "freezing the conflict in its current state for many years," the choice, pests or idiots who are not in control of the situation. “Freezing” of this kind is impossible even for a couple of years without a radical revision of the policy of military and economic construction in the republics. And the situation is deteriorating with time. Taking into account the constant losses of the ongoing trench warfare, taking into account how many good personnel sucks Syria out of the “corps”, where they began to take everyone, with any passports, not only with Russian (apparently, extras are needed critically for victorious parades), taking into account the frustration in a year, the masses of people of the republics will acquire a purely symbolic meaning.

Iv. About people saying that "If Ukraine goes, there will be no massacre," I have already said everything.

In general, we have to work, work very hard, and not engage in complacency.
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    SCHWERIN 18 November 2017 15: 46
    Never underestimate the enemy. To mock his image. For it reduces the ardor of war and calls into question the Victory!
    1. Hlavaty
      Hlavaty 18 November 2017 17: 29
      The author described what concerns the military component. But there is also a powerful ideological work that is being conducted in Ukraine. Many "Russians" giggle over the "senility of Ukrainization", there is a tendency to portray what is happening in Ukraine as antics of idiots. Something reminds how in the old Soviet films the Nazis portrayed as idiots.
      At the same time, for some reason, it does not seem that this is all not only funded, but also invented by someone, pushed through parliaments and local councils, organized, etc.
      That is, all this is not as stupid as it seems giggling over the "Ukrainians." A lot of people are involved in this. And it brings results. More and more Ukrainian language is heard on the streets. While the “Russians” giggle and tell each other jokes about Ukrainization, the country and people are really changing here.
      1. SCHWERIN
        SCHWERIN 18 November 2017 18: 50
        Beating the "clown" Kovtun on channel 1 from Soviet propaganda films about the Germans. Articles from our media of the same damage. One can only hope that all this is for the layman and our military have truthful information, and not zakidayshapkovaya.
      2. seti
        seti 18 November 2017 18: 51
        Quote: Hlavaty
        The author described what concerns the military component. But there is also a powerful ideological work that is being conducted in Ukraine. Many "Russians" giggle over the "senility of Ukrainization", there is a tendency to portray what is happening in Ukraine as antics of idiots. Something reminds how in the old Soviet films the Nazis portrayed as idiots.
        At the same time, for some reason, it does not seem that this is all not only funded, but also invented by someone, pushed through parliaments and local councils, organized, etc.
        That is, all this is not as stupid as it seems giggling over the "Ukrainians." A lot of people are involved in this. And it brings results. More and more Ukrainian language is heard on the streets. While the “Russians” giggle and tell each other jokes about Ukrainization, the country and people are really changing here.

        I totally agree.
    2. region58
      region58 18 November 2017 20: 08
      There were many articles on the topic "what happened to Ukraine during the collapse of the USSR", for example, here:
      The industrial potential is also not sickly - they built the whole Union ... And people are literate, primarily technically. Many of us probably sat at their desks with them. How did it happen that there is “we” and there are “they” is a separate question ... And if at first the same APUs at first were pretty cool about the idea of ​​fighting their own people (everyone saw the shots stopping the BMP as a “field”) , now the "process has begun," as the author correctly noted. In general, it will not be easy. In fact, the civil war in miniature ... the most worthless option of all ... Eh, we survived ...
      PS And nobody needs a strong Ukrainian industry, neither Europeans nor ours, however competition ...
  2. Vasya Vassin
    Vasya Vassin 18 November 2017 15: 57
    Interesting article.
    1. Settlement Oparyshev
      Settlement Oparyshev 18 November 2017 18: 42
      The article is correct. An excellent guide for the New Russia Command.
      I will add that the main purpose of the Armed Forces army in Russia, in the case of a complete mixing of Russia with China. That is, a full-scale war. Of course, not with pure China. First, migrants drg, then kndrki with South Korea, then only China will reach. APU will strike the moment. From History it is known that the Battle on two fronts always leads to the defeat of the one in the middle. Enemies will not be scattered in time. There was an experience that this does not roll. I will add that there is a positive in the Armies of New Russia Debalah, already with modern APUs, has shown that they can be made. Their equipment burns, despite the screens.
      Thanks to the author for Enlightenment.
      1. AllXVahhaB
        AllXVahhaB 18 November 2017 21: 45
        Quote: p-k Oparyshev
        I will add that the main purpose of the Armed Forces army in Russia, in the case of a complete mixing of Russia with China. That is, a full-scale war. Of course, not with pure China. First, migrants drg, then kndrki with South Korea, then only China will reach. APU will strike the moment. From History it is known that the Battle on two fronts always leads to the defeat of the one in the middle. Enemies will not be scattered in time. There was an experience that this does not roll. I will add that there is a positive in the Armies of New Russia Debalah, already with modern APUs, has shown that they can be made. Their equipment burns, despite the screens.

        What language is it written in?
        1. Settlement Oparyshev
          Settlement Oparyshev 19 November 2017 08: 03
          In a secret language, so that the enemy could not catch the red thread thought.
      2. igorka357
        igorka357 18 November 2017 22: 06
        Read the military doctrine of the Russian Federation, everything is there in black and white!
        1. Settlement Oparyshev
          Settlement Oparyshev 19 November 2017 08: 02
          Read my doctrine. I have no reason to fool you.
  3. solzh
    solzh 18 November 2017 16: 00
    If my inflorescences seem too bleak to someone, read the July interview by the fareastener, which so many tried to show me in terms of, "Here he does not panic like you."
    - Is the general offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine possible?
    - Theoretically yes. If the Ukrainians decide on this and throw all their forces into battle, they will roll us out in about a day.

    War correspondent Alexander Sladkov said on air of the program “Evening with Vladimir Solovyov”:
    If (APU) go on the offensive, then the front line will be broken.
    To the question of the journalist Solovyov about how deeply the units of the Ukrainian army can enter and how long the Donbass militias can hold out without external assistance, Sladkov replied that it was only three days, but military personnel of the DNI and LNR armies will fight to the last. Further, the military commander recalled the words of the head of the DPR, Alexander Zakharchenko, that if the Armed Forces of Ukraine capture the Donbass, then they will not have enough posts to hang everyone.

    Well, my personal opinion is, even if my words sound too pathetic, but I WILL NOT GET ANYTHING.
    1. svd-xnumx
      svd-xnumx 18 November 2017 16: 21
      Russia may launch an offensive along the entire border with the non-brothers to help LDNR and the horses run the risk of losing Kiev by throwing all their forces in the Donbass. So they will have to keep a large group to repulse the offensive not only from the north-east, but also from Crimea.
      1. Pereira
        Pereira 18 November 2017 17: 02
        Our attack before the World Cup is impossible in principle.
  4. andrewkor
    andrewkor 18 November 2017 16: 47
    Somehow I doubt that the APU will fight to the death with the militia of Donbass!
    1. Hlavaty
      Hlavaty 18 November 2017 18: 00
      And I completely admit. The war did not start yesterday, and many have already had personal scores with LDNR - someone killed a relative, someone else. And the longer this ATO lasts, the more such accounts appear.
      Plus, as the author correctly noted, a powerful ideological machine, against the background of completely slurred Russian propaganda. After all, if you think calmly, it’s completely incomprehensible what Russia wants with regard to Ukraine. If you follow the letter of the officially proclaimed policy, then LDNR is not needed. But why then the "North wind"?
      To those who will now begin to tell me about Putin's Tricky Plan, with which he confuses his opponents, I can only say that he also successfully confused his friends. Ukrainians do not understand at all what Putin offers them. At the same time, official propaganda convinces them that Russia attacked Ukraine. And then simple worldly logic turns on: if the attacker on Ukraine does not say a word about what the future awaits the Ukrainians, then nothing good awaits the Ukrainians. Then why Putin Ukrainians?
      Again feed the oligarch swindlers at the expense of the people. In LDNR, they say, the term "young oligarchs" has already appeared - these are those who, under the "people's" republics and the control of Russia, managed to grab and become a petty oligarch. And the last video when Plotnitsky personally evicts his chief law enforcement officer from the house, which he captured and lived there for several years according to lawlessness?!?! Carpenter’s “at least understood” what he did to the LDNR and Putin anti-advertising?!?!? What is better for Ukrainians than what is?
      So I fully admit that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will fight against this "incomprehensible future from Putin", for its own, maybe worthless, but somehow understandable present.
      1. igorka357
        igorka357 18 November 2017 22: 08
        It is very lazy to write such opuses as you, but what Porshenko suggested to you ... fulfills .. lol ?
        1. Hlavaty
          Hlavaty 18 November 2017 22: 59
          Poroshenko is not a player, but a game figure. Therefore, it makes no sense to pay attention to his promises.
          1. Settlement Oparyshev
            Settlement Oparyshev 19 November 2017 08: 17
            Russia has one Front and no matter what it is called, Syria, Ukraine or Chechnya.
            1. Hlavaty
              Hlavaty 19 November 2017 10: 38
              Is this Putin’s point of view?
              1. Settlement Oparyshev
                Settlement Oparyshev 19 November 2017 16: 10
                Unfortunately, there are lots of old men with the mind of youngsters in the open air of VO. They would still play shooting games in tanks.
  5. The comment was deleted.
    1. igorka357
      igorka357 18 November 2017 22: 10
      Perhaps your voice will be in her piggy bank .. laughing ?
  6. The leader of the Redskins
    The leader of the Redskins 18 November 2017 17: 37
    I read this article two days ago on the BMPD. Then I re-read it twice, followed the links. I was surprised how such an “all-crawler” was allowed to go to the Internet. And then I looked at other publications - maybe some troll? It turns out he has a lot of articles and a lot of worthwhile deeds - delivery to the forefront of optics and other ammunition is just worth it, so I think a person knows what he is writing about.
    So it’s time for couch generals dreaming of global seizures and boilers to change rhetoric.
  7. astronom1973n
    astronom1973n 18 November 2017 17: 39
    Quote: Pereira
    and even Madame Sobakina is gaining some chances.

    Well, this is unlikely!
    1. Pereira
      Pereira 18 November 2017 22: 11
      Many can vote out of mischief.
  8. alexnh
    alexnh 18 November 2017 17: 43
    Awful article. And horror, first of all, in the competence and undeniable logic of the author. But the question arises: what signal are the rulers of Ukraine waiting for? Maybe some events in Moscow?
    1. Hlavaty
      Hlavaty 18 November 2017 18: 04
      Traders will be traded until the very last second.
  9. The comment was deleted.
  10. valerei
    valerei 18 November 2017 18: 52
    Good, serious article. But, as I wrote more than once, why is all this written on this site? What will change dramatically from this publication? In the face of the increasingly probable danger of an APU offensive, these two republics must, at least militarily, urgently unite! And it’s even better to create one, united republic. But probably no one wants to give up power, even if as a result of this they have to be defeated and flee to Russia. As I wrote more than once, Ukraine will inevitably be washed away with blood and, as quite rightly stated in the article, this time is inexorably coming. Poroshenko and his Natsiks inexorably need a war, even if Poroshenko leaves, voluntarily or not, then the Natsiks will certainly attack the republics. This sitting cannot last indefinitely, the deadlines for repaying Ukraine’s debts on Western loans are already running out, therefore, everything is correct, the smell of gunpowder has already smelled strongly. These two republics for Russia play the role of a buffer between the Natsiks. Russia should urgently help them in all respects and Russia in this situation will not be able to stay on the sidelines, with all the ensuing consequences for both our army and the economy. Having lost Syria, the Americans are simply obliged to go all-in in Ukraine, and there, a couple - three military provocations such as South Ossetia and Russia in the war. The Americans wanted it too. However, it is likely that our General Staff has already pumped this development of the situation, but the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine is definitely stronger than the armies of both republics is a fact that both the republics and us must reckon with.
  11. Glory1974
    Glory1974 18 November 2017 18: 54
    Quite a sober view of things. Combat experience, plus the numerical superiority of the Armed Forces of Ukraine creates the conditions for an offensive. Combat experience, plus prepared LDNR positions, create conditions for repelling an offensive. And here it becomes clear that in a few days of fighting a critical situation will come: if the republics have reserves, they will be able to turn the tide. If they are not, then the APU will be able to finish.
    Recall the Kursk Bulge, both sides knew where and what would begin, they knew about the time and prepared. In my opinion, a similar situation has developed.
  12. Stena
    Stena 18 November 2017 19: 53
    The situation without this article, for sane people, is understandable.
    Not clear 2 things:
    1. The author’s conclusions on ammunition for the main types of weapons (and especially art. And tank ammunition; ammunition for MLRS) are not obvious. If there is enough ammunition - why did the number of shellings from "heavy weapons" decrease (according to reports of the MAG military commissar)? Moreover - the message is not clear - that "Secondly, the factories remained." What, specifically, factories produce ammunition for tanks (125 mm), howitzer artillery (122, 152 mm), MLRS -? In Bulgaria, they produce it, but judging by the articles (data are not accurate), they already supply it. Although 82-mm shells for mortars - really produce.
    2. The main defeats of VSU were inflicted by the "north wind", moreover, even without the use of aviation. This is, first of all, a lesson! For the high school and political leaders, it’s independent - what will happen if there is a possible military participation of the Russian army.
    Therefore, with the author's conclusions, in addition to 3 - in general, I completely agree.
  13. APASUS
    APASUS 18 November 2017 20: 21
    Interesting material. But what the author did not mention is the moral and ethical side of the issue, the motivation of the enemy. The soldier should go into battle with one hundred percent confidence that he is right. And while he sees the country turning into a herd, the rich and the rich The majority is poor. It’s worth remembering the 90s, the army at that time was still equipped according to the norms of the USSR, and turned into a herd.
    All these modern gadgets certainly give a big plus, but the paradox is that barefoot Vietnamese kicked the ass of the Americans (the most modern army at that time), as well as the Afghans (who still live in the Stone Age)
    1. Hlavaty
      Hlavaty 18 November 2017 21: 27
      Quote: APASUS
      In the meantime, he sees how the country turns into a herd, as the rich get richer and the beggars the majority.

      Which is true for both sides of the conflict. Both here and there, people feel cheated.
    SCHWERIN 18 November 2017 22: 23
    I read somewhere that in order to defeat an enemy, a soldier should hate him more than that of him. I recall the documentaries of the beginning of the Second World War. Our prisoners, their faces. They misunderstanding what happened. Advocacy of the pre-war period - a German worker and more ....
    But when people began to understand that the question was whether to live or not to live, when propaganda began to illuminate the real atrocities of the Nazis, then the turning point began.
    I don’t know if the LDNR fighters hate the chocolate army, but I think very much.
  15. iouris
    iouris 18 November 2017 23: 14
    Everything is exactly the same with us.
  16. The comment was deleted.
  17. Leonid Dymov
    Leonid Dymov 19 November 2017 07: 56
    I fully agree with the author of the article. But I am convinced that not simpletons are sitting in our General Staff, whose wives build summer cottages using soldiers of military service.
  18. vissarion
    vissarion 19 November 2017 13: 43
    Very competent article. The main warning to the authorities of the DPR and Russia about the possible situation in the event of the outbreak of a large-scale war in the Donbass. If all this mess starts, then how many people will die. Donetsk will be razed to the ground. The USA after the defeat of ISIS in Syria needs a war, and necessarily with the participation of Russia. And the whole world, with the United States casting an odd voice, will shout about Russia's "aggression" against a small sovereign Ukraine. If Putin gives way to Medvedev or to someone else who is frankly carrying out orders from behind a puddle, then it will not seem enough. So what, brother to brother, father to son, etc. And all this will fall on our shoulders. After all, the oligarchs will not go to war, there is a profit for them. What to do?
  19. Normal ok
    Normal ok 19 November 2017 15: 47
    Morons, I apologize for the expression. Blind and deaf stupid people.

    Voice in the wilderness. In the sense of VO.
  20. Spook
    Spook 20 November 2017 09: 00
    I can only discuss the general sensations of the information background. On their basis, the article seems to be true and everything that is written is correct. From my point of view, the forecast of events can be as follows:
    1. The Ukrainian Wehrmacht will go mad at the end and go on the offensive, the lack of amers strategy in the region, pushing them into the abyss of suicide.
    2. Putin has already indicated that he will not allow massacres, it means that Russia will intervene, how Russia has been interfering in military operations lately - all hotheads will receive a personal grenade, then, as usual, they will squeeze out any American property, and squeeze out which a piece of territory;
    3. It seems to me that Mariupol is quite suitable for the squeezed piece of territory, maybe in Odessa itself, not for nothing that it wasn’t captured at one time, now there would be nothing to threaten. And other territories are worse suited to the role of victim, are not economically developed and are even more hostile.
    4. American javelins, etc., would be very suitable for possessed property. I think the Americans suspect something. Because they are in no hurry to supply ukrov.
  21. kartalovkolya
    kartalovkolya 20 November 2017 11: 18
    Here is another “relative” of Marshal Zhukov, but I dare to remind the old army of wisdom that it was smooth on paper, but forgot about the ravines ... It should be a respected theoretician and connoisseur of military art to recall one tiny detail that not all Ukrainians burn the desire to become "wood" in the furnaces of the Donbass, but the LDNR people's militia has nothing to hope for but themselves and they will not have to wait for mercy! And who will be more motivated in this case? History knows many cases when fewer beaten more powerful enemies and this is from the time of 300 Spartans ... I dare to recall the words of the outstanding commander of Ancient Greece that "... we would die if we did not die ..."! Are there people in the Armed Forces of Ukraine who are capable of “lying with their bones” without reasoning for something that they don’t quite understand and need and no propaganda will force them to sacrifice themselves for the interests of the junta!
  22. DimerVladimer
    DimerVladimer 21 November 2017 11: 51
    A very balanced and competent assessment of the situation, possible military operations of the Armed Forces and confrontation.

    What keeps the Ukrainian Armed Forces from taking actions to “roll out the LPR of the DPR” is unacceptable damage, a potential threat of Russian interference.