Military Review

The National Interest: Russian submarine forces are slowly dying?

42
The American publication The National Interest traditionally pays great attention to the Russian armed forces and their development. One of the most interesting materials of this publication, published in recent days, touched on the topic of underwater development fleet Of Russia. Judging by the specific headline, the American press did not come to positive conclusions.


10 November in the headings of The Buzz and Security was published an article "Is Russia's Submarine Force Dying a Slow Death?" - "Are Russian submarine forces slowly dying?". The author of this publication was Robert Beckhasen, who is the editor of the portal War Is Boring. It should be noted that the new article in The National Interest is a revised and updated version of the older material in War Is Boring, which was released in early August. However, as can be judged, the material, in general, remains valid.

R. Beckhasen begins his article with a reference to the events of the recent past. In March of this year in the northern port city of Severodvinsk, the newest nuclear submarine Kazan, designed by 885 Yasen, was launched. Probably, this submarine, which is characterized by reduced noise, can be considered as another proof of the high potential of Russian shipbuilding. It shows that the Kremlin is able to build effective and deadly submarines, including armed with cruise missiles.



However, the current state of the Russian submarine fleet has its own characteristics. By War Is Boring and The National Interest, it is estimated that by 2030, most Russian nuclear submarines carrying torpedoes and cruise missiles will have time to celebrate their thirtieth anniversary. Moreover, the age of some ships will pass for 40 years. For comparison, R. Beckhasen recalls the oldest of the existing American submarines. For example, the USS Dallas, USS Bremerton and USS Jacksonville boats remain in service for 36 years. In the next three years they will be decommissioned due to moral and physical obsolescence.

During service, submarines wear out and spend their resources. First of all, these features of operation associated with corrosion of the shell. Another serious problem with nuclear submarines is corrosion processes affecting components of nuclear reactors. However, information on this subject is classified by all military fleets and, for obvious reasons, is not published.

Another feature of the old submarines, as reminds R. Beckhasen, is a specific schedule of service. Over time, the ship begins to need a longer and more complex service, which leads to an increase in the intervals between exits for military service. The author recalls that even according to the most optimistic estimates, the Russian submarine fleet can at any moment withdraw only half of its boats to sea. Thus, a group consisting predominantly of relatively old ships should have limited operational readiness.

The Kremlin has already ordered and built two multi-purpose nuclear submarines of the 885 Ash project. Submarine "Severodvinsk" was launched in the 2010 year, the first production "Kazan" - in the 2017-m. However, as R. Beckhasen points out, two new submarines will not be able to become a full-fledged replacement for ships preparing to decommission. In the future, the Russian Navy will have to withdraw 11 submarines of the 971 Shchuka-B / Akula-class submarines, three 945 Barracuda and 945A Condor ships (Sierra-class), and four 671РТМ submarines (C) Pike / Victor III. Over time, the fleet will also abandon the eight submarine missile carriers of the 949A Antey project (Oscar II).

The author also recalls that most of the submarines of the 971 “Pike-B” project entered service in the early nineties. The last of the ships of this type, bearing the name "Cheetah", has been in operation since 2000.

As a replacement for torpedo and missile submarines are considered ships of the project 885 "Ash". This project, according to the author, was created in the last years of the Soviet Union. Now it is planned to build seven submarines on it. The last one will be commissioned in the 2023 year. Such plans look very optimistic, since Ash is notable for its high cost. It is alleged that such a submarine is twice as expensive as a modern strategic missile submarine.

Demonstrating the current situation and its perspectives, R. Beckhase quotes the publication of the well-known Russian blog BMPD, in one of whose materials quite harsh assessments were made. So, Russia intends to continue the exploitation of old submarines for the maximum possible time. At the same time, if we take into account the risks of rising costs, by 2030, the total number of submarine forces of the navy could be halved compared with the current figures.

In the same period, in the year indicated by 2030, the fleet of submarine carriers of strategic ballistic missiles will have a slightly better state. Only a few countries currently have submarines with similar weapons on board - these are Russia, the USA, India, China, France, the United Kingdom and North Korea. At the moment, the Russian Navy is armed with 13 strategic submarines. Three of them were built in recent years according to the newest 955 “Borey” project. Five more similar boats will be built in the foreseeable future.

The situation with strategic submarines in the 2030 year should look like this. The three ships of the project XNUMBБДР (Delta III-class), the six boats of the project 667BDRM (Delta IV) and one project 667 (Typhoon) - if they remain in service - will be at least 941 years. However, even if Russia by this time abandons all these ships and relies on the new Boreas, it will be able to retain its leadership position. From the point of view of the number of submarines with strategic missiles, only the USA, China and, possibly, India can compete with Russia.

It is known that Russia may try to solve the existing problems with the number of submarines with torpedo weapons and cruise missiles with the help of new projects. Thus, a project of unified submarines of the Husky type is currently being developed. On the basis of a common "platform" can be created submarines of different classes that have different tasks.

According to known data, the Husky project can lead to the construction of three types of submarines. The first will be an attacking submarine with torpedoes, the second will become the carrier of cruise missiles, and the main weapons The third project will be ballistic missiles. Cruise ships with cruise missiles are of greatest interest to the Russian fleet. The fact is that the Russian naval doctrine for many years envisaged the use of submarines as hunters for the US carrier strike groups, for which they needed cruise missiles with a sufficient range. R. Beckhasen recalls that Russian anti-ship missiles pose a great danger to ships of a potential enemy.

However, the Husky project may also face problems. Even by the most optimistic estimates, by the 2030, the Russian navy will be able to receive no more than three such ships. At the same time to obtain such results, construction should start at the very beginning of the next decade. In addition, it is necessary to order one boat every two years, and the construction should take no more than four and a half years.

Nuclear submarines such as "Ash" have the ability to launch cruise missiles. However, this does not solve all relevant issues. According to the results of the implementation of all existing plans, in the foreseeable future, the Russian fleet will have only ten new multi-purpose submarines armed with torpedoes or cruise missiles. At the same time, about two dozen submarines, 30 or even 40 years old, who will eventually complete their service, will remain in service.

The author of War Is Boring and The National Interest also touched upon the development of a non-nuclear submarine fleet, although he did not consider this sphere in detail. R. Beckhasen believes that the state of the Russian grouping of diesel-electric submarines is no better than in the case of a nuclear submarine fleet.

The author points out that Russia has 17 diesel-electric submarines of the Kilo family projects (877 “Halibut” and 636 “Varshavyanka” projects). Much of these submarine hunters were transferred into service until the early nineties, inclusive. At the same time, a foreign expert indicates that the newest submarines of the 636 Varshavyanka and 677 Lada projects are being built and put into operation much faster than the larger and more complex atomic Yaseni.

***

The title of the article in The National Interest was the question of the slow death of the Russian submarine fleet. Nevertheless, the article itself, despite some pessimistic tone, still gives a negative answer to the question posed. Indeed, in the foreseeable future, we will have to observe a tendency towards a gradual reduction in the number of Russian submarines. However, in this case, the underwater forces will not die. Moreover, they will be able to maintain the required potential.

It must be remembered that the processes of downsizing — more pronounced, as well as aggravated by a number of specific factors — were observed in the last decade of the last century. For technical and economic reasons, the Russian Navy was forced to decommission diesel-electric and nuclear submarines of various classes and types. All this led to the most serious reduction in the number of ships and a corresponding drop in the combat potential of the fleet. The construction of new ships, which was also hampered by a lack of funding, did not even allow to partially compensate for the losses.

Unlike the nineties, the Russian military now has the ability to promptly replace aging ships. In recent years, the construction of new submarines of several types. The submarine “hunters” of the old types are replaced by new “Ash”, the submarines of the 667BDR (M) family will eventually give way to the new “Boreas”. The development of a non-nuclear submarine fleet continues, primarily, at the expense of diesel-electric submarines of the Varshavyanka type. In addition, promising submarines are already being developed, which in the distant future will complement the current newest ships.

It should be noted that the conclusions of Robert Beckhasen may not be entirely correct due to some mistakes or a certain slyness. In particular, considering the situation with diesel-electric submarines, he made a mistake. The American specialist indicated that the Russian Navy has 17 boats of the Kilo family. However, the fleet lists 21 listed submarine projects 877 and 636. Even if we take into account the ships that are being repaired, the number of “active” boats still does not coincide with the indicated one.

And yet it must be admitted that in the foreseeable future, the Russian Navy will be faced with the need to write off part of submarines with unacceptably large age. As a simple calculation shows, current construction programs will not be able to provide equivalent in number replacement of this technology. However, in this case, the fleet will not remain without the necessary submarines, and will also retain the required potential. The question asked by an American specialist can be answered with certainty: no, the Russian submarine forces do not die.


The article "Is Russia's Submarine Force Dying a Slow Death?":
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/russias-submarine-force-dying-slow-death-23141
Author:
42 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. Same lech
    Same lech 17 November 2017 06: 35 New
    10
    The National Interest: Russian submarine forces are slowly dying?


    Dying ... dying ... smile believe it now the Americans and do not cry later.
    1. Titsen
      Titsen 17 November 2017 07: 13 New
      +3
      Quote: The same Lech
      Dying ... dying ...


      There is a share in every joke ... Jokes!
    2. xetai9977
      xetai9977 17 November 2017 11: 02 New
      +9
      "Believe it now, Americans and don’t cry later."
      Americans are not alone in this. 100 years already as the USA "rots and collapses." laughing
      1. 73bor
        73bor 17 November 2017 18: 46 New
        +3
        You know very well that the end of our fleet was prophesied as ten years ago! And don’t have to jerk off, the US has never been spoken about the “decay” of the Navy, and our demise is as long as you want!
        1. Evgenii Xolod
          Evgenii Xolod 19 November 2017 00: 51 New
          +3
          To read them, everything is falling apart from us from Ivan Vasilyevich ..... Grozny. everything cannot collapse. laughing laughing laughing
      2. Nikolay Fedorov
        Nikolay Fedorov 18 November 2017 17: 36 New
        +4
        Quote: xetai9977
        "Believe it now, Americans and don’t cry later."
        Americans are not alone in this. 100 years already as the USA "rots and collapses." laughing

        And what, haven't they rotted?
      3. edigs
        edigs 20 November 2017 07: 19 New
        +2
        Russia should cease to exist as early as 98, this was inevitable with the secession of the entire Caucasus. But what went wrong in the plans of the West ...
    3. Juborg
      Juborg 17 November 2017 14: 37 New
      +4
      The National Interest, this is a tabloid yellow leaf, and was once a serious analytical publication. What makes Russophobia life-giving! laughing
      1. jjj
        jjj 17 November 2017 15: 04 New
        +9
        In our fleet, at the signal of the flagship "Kako-Live-People"? it is customary to answer only like this:

        1. jjj
          jjj 17 November 2017 15: 06 New
          +1
          PS This is not a joke of humor
      2. leonid-zherebtcov
        leonid-zherebtcov 18 November 2017 00: 26 New
        0
        I agree. And now serves as toilet paper for demagogues "without show-offs."
  2. Stirbjorn
    Stirbjorn 17 November 2017 09: 30 New
    10
    Indeed, in the foreseeable future we will have to observe a trend towards a gradual reduction in the number of Russian submarines.
    Which, however, does not prevent the local couch army from enthusiastically quacking when they post news about the anxiety of some British, American, New Zealand and so on Navy, due to the increased activity of the Russian submarine fleet! soldier Why increase this activity if the number of submarines decreases over the years ?!
    1. Krabik
      Krabik 17 November 2017 09: 45 New
      +3
      Something like Ukraine.

      There, if an American citizen accidentally steps on the flag of Ukraine, there will immediately be enthusiastic cries that they are respected all over the world!

      And if they spit on the flag, then a hysteria about their superiority through all channels.

      Just like ours ...
    2. 73bor
      73bor 17 November 2017 19: 06 New
      +2
      But you can clearly see how the fleets of NATO fleets were reduced, for your information, from the end of the 80s the US fleet was reduced by more than 2 times, and our death was predicted twenty years ago, believe one of the “couch” with ten years of experience in military operations!
    3. Abel
      Abel 18 November 2017 13: 52 New
      0
      And if you remove the American nuclear submarines (after all, it’s far to dig in), how many boats do the European NATO members have? And the Americans are far away to swim.
    4. Nikolay Fedorov
      Nikolay Fedorov 18 November 2017 17: 46 New
      +4
      Quote: Stirbjorn
      Indeed, in the foreseeable future we will have to observe a trend towards a gradual reduction in the number of Russian submarines.
      Which, however, does not prevent the local couch army from enthusiastically quacking when they post news about the anxiety of some British, American, New Zealand and so on Navy, due to the increased activity of the Russian submarine fleet! soldier Why increase this activity if the number of submarines decreases over the years ?!

      When the inhabitants of a country enthusiastically quack about any success army of his country, it’s good, it’s normal.
      When the inhabitants of a country about the successes of the army of their country sarcastically grin and angry, and enthusiastically quack about the successes of the enemy armies, then this is bad, very bad. At all times, such residents were called traitors, traitors, and many more Russian words that are prohibited on this site.
  3. The Siberian barber
    The Siberian barber 17 November 2017 09: 36 New
    +3
    Somehow, I remembered the picture of Yagelnaya Bay, when all the piers were lined with ships. It was a deal ..
  4. Magic archer
    Magic archer 17 November 2017 09: 57 New
    11
    That’s what Americans are right about: we don’t have a mass series. Like Los Angeles and Virginia. Now, for all the coolness of Ashen, they are few. And if you add English and French to the American submarines, the ratio will turn out catastrophic. And hopes for an improvement in the situation are not expected .. Unfortunately
  5. AlexMark
    AlexMark 17 November 2017 09: 59 New
    +5
    It dies, it dies, but as it dies, it will be assembled, so it can take half of the known continent with it.
    I can give an example using my subject matter. A person has three firearms. But one cracked the butt, the other bore went with the whole shell, because the great-grandfather fired from it, but the third, a new, modern trouble-free rifle and ammunition for it in sufficient quantities, and even interchangeable barrels and pribludy different facilitate efficient use. And so, according to the logic of Robert Beckhasen, a man on 2 / 3 is unarmed laughing
    And also a man saves a pistol, and a pair of grenades lies to grab adversaries with him if they really press him.
  6. Andrei from Chelyabinsk
    Andrei from Chelyabinsk 17 November 2017 10: 00 New
    19
    This uncle R. Beckhasen is an intelligent analyst. In principle, I painted everything correctly.
    1. avt
      avt 17 November 2017 11: 40 New
      +2
      Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk
      This uncle R. Beckhasen is an intelligent analyst. In principle, I painted everything correctly.

      Malover, defeatist ........ yes, just RETERIC! bully By the way, that slipped - Rakhmanov threatens, if they don’t give money, Oleg’s right to move the terms request
      The author of War Is Boring and The National Interest also touched upon the development of a non-nuclear submarine fleet, although he did not consider this sphere in detail. R. Beckhasen believes that the state of the Russian grouping of diesel-electric submarines is no better than in the case of a nuclear submarine fleet.
      request ,, Alrosa "a campaign in repair, as in an eternal parking lot. Of course, we can hope that something will move qualitatively as a result of walking ,, Sarova", but this secret is covered in a dark fingerboard bully
    2. Abel
      Abel 18 November 2017 13: 54 New
      0
      I painted it right, but the conclusions do not correspond to the content. Just like in our courts
  7. venik
    venik 17 November 2017 10: 07 New
    +7
    ".... only a few countries currently have Premier League with similar weapons on board are Russia, the USA, India, China, France, Great Britain and North Korea. ...... "
    ==========
    That's interesting, where This is a respected author in North Korea saw atomic submarines ???? Diesel-electrics are available (and even with a BR), but atomic ones, as it is "not observed" ..... Carefully it is necessary, more thoroughly, it is not necessary "do not insist a kirsa!" (M. Zhvanetsky)
    1. Maki Avellevich
      Maki Avellevich 17 November 2017 10: 47 New
      0
      Quote: venik
      Why, I wonder where this respected author of the DPRK saw atomic submarines ????


      Quote: venik
      ".... Only a few countries currently have nuclear submarines with similar weapons [i] [/ i] on board
      1. Serzh
        Serzh 17 November 2017 15: 48 New
        +3
        Premier League with similar weapons

        Maki Avellyevich, is this an abbreviation? Isn't the ATOMIC submarine deciphering, dear ?!
        So correctly pointed venik
  8. The leader of the Redskins
    The leader of the Redskins 17 November 2017 12: 05 New
    0
    In! I thought only we have "funeral" articles that I adore so much. Not! And beyond the hill are individuals! Well, if so ... Take off our hats, ugh! Capless! And we take a sad look ....
  9. For New Russia
    For New Russia 17 November 2017 12: 19 New
    0
    Are you not going to write off anything? Is everything ok? The average age of aircraft is 33 years old, boats and ships are the same. For many 90 years, the resource was worked out. While ours stood .... there are 10 pieces written off per year ...
  10. For New Russia
    For New Russia 17 November 2017 12: 26 New
    0
    And who said that Antey was for cancellation? Of these, the ash-tree will not be a bad analogue .... unlike the fagots on them, the reactor is not one-time!
  11. Eflintuk
    Eflintuk 17 November 2017 17: 43 New
    +2
    The picture was written quite realistic, RTM - they live to the last, 971 - they sawed the head one, 4 pieces stand on an asterisk (2 in an unhurried repair, 2 fate is unknown (India?)), Barracudas - have long lagged behind the better times that they do not shine on, Condors - undergo kerosene repairs, ash - for a long, expensive. Do not forget that these boats are RPKSN bodyguards to give them at least some sort of combat stability. With the SSBN - it’s about, DEPL - we are not seriously considering, 949A - fate has not been decided which missiles to stuff into them, and the expediency of this re-equipment.
  12. shinobi
    shinobi 17 November 2017 18: 56 New
    0
    Well, well, no, of course they let them believe what they want, but they don’t come to us.
  13. Vladimir1155
    Vladimir1155 17 November 2017 22: 07 New
    0
    stupid s cannot think logically
  14. misti1973
    misti1973 18 November 2017 01: 17 New
    0
    And where did he get the three Barracudas? Not so much. There is one! Pike B is a good boat, but old. BDRM Dolphin is generally firewood. In general, all soviet boats have one main problem-noise! I would rely more on diesel engines. In the A2 / AD concept and even with the caliber in the nuclear version, the surface fleet is completely neutralized. True, their SLBMs will be destroyed! Trident II is a very good rocket (we don’t have one!) And they have a lot of them. All this talk about the S-400, which supposedly can shoot down warheads, is full of bullshit!
    1. Lock36
      Lock36 18 November 2017 02: 28 New
      0
      Yes, I agree, excellent. And the development is fresh, and everyone is in fair condition - regular tests, they say, are pretty expensive. They even take off. They say.
    2. Eflintuk
      Eflintuk 18 November 2017 11: 53 New
      0
      Our submarine fleet has the task of delivering a guaranteed retaliatory nuclear strike. While the suicide bombers are distracting, the bombers should shoot as far as possible ... What tridents are there ...
  15. Yeti
    Yeti 18 November 2017 01: 19 New
    0
    Then the striped chase Abrams in Europe. ))))
  16. Robin - Bobbin
    Robin - Bobbin 18 November 2017 10: 08 New
    0
    Quote: misti1973
    ! Trident II is a very good rocket (we don’t have one!) And they have a lot of them.
    So leave for permanent residence in the States until they pulled the Tridents according to your theory.
  17. Serega86
    Serega86 20 November 2017 00: 57 New
    +1
    Quote: Stirbjorn
    Why increase this activity if the number of submarines decreases over the years ?!

    Fluid stools, however, overcome with fear .....
  18. Nitarius
    Nitarius 22 November 2017 08: 53 New
    0
    it's okay .. die reactors to the shores of the United States send))
  19. Russian bear
    Russian bear 22 November 2017 09: 38 New
    0
    they will be afraid, even if there is one boat capable of causing unacceptable damage to the United States ...
    and boats are slowly being built.
  20. Sergey Koryagin
    Sergey Koryagin 5 March 2018 19: 48 New
    0
    Well, yes, that’s all, we dry the oars. I’d better count the money in my pocket. By the way, we have in reserve for an emergency case - let’s put a hat in a circle.