Washington's plan was beautiful and elegant. ISIS (banned in the Russian Federation), having played its part in the destruction of Syria, had to clear the way and give way to a more handshaking successor. Bashar Assad was to be pressed to the sea and put up with defeat. The plan was good, but the Russians intervened, and the winner in Syria was not the one.
It looked different in 2016
Now it is meaningless to talk about what American politicians wanted to turn Syria into. I think something very similar to what was depicted on the map of Colonel Peters.
By the middle, especially by the end of 2016, it was already obvious that this plan had failed. Russian surprisingly quickly able to reorganize the Syrian government army, equip it weapons and ensure uninterrupted supply.
And they taught her to fight and win.
Russian aviation and ground units were able to provide a turning point in the war, and Washington needed a new plan of action.
The plan was pretty simple and even real. LIH with all its strength pounces on the government army and binds it in all directions. Meanwhile, parts of the SDF and the Kurds created by Washington without much resistance occupy areas of eastern and central Syria and go to the Jordanian border. At the same time, the “opposition” detachments in Idlib join them and in one “front” demand the withdrawal of Assad. At the beginning of 2016, the plan was good, but a new factor intervened. The coup in Turkey against Recep Erdogan failed, and he decided to go to war in Syria. Against Washington and their allies, of course.
Turkey confuses all cards
In the summer of 2016, the Turkish army and the Syrian “opposition” detachments supported by it invaded Syria. Damascus, as it should be in this case, protested, and Moscow was silent. After all, the Turkish army came to help her.
What was interesting and remarkable fights in the north of the province of Aleppo? Just a couple of weeks before the “invasion”, the Kurds took a large Syrian city on the right bank of the Euphrates, Manbij. They took light and very quickly. Against the background of this operation, the advance of the pro-Turkish forces in the same area against the same enemy looked like a real mockery of common sense. And the epic with the storming of El-Bab is like a clear misunderstanding.
But there was no bullying or misunderstanding. The August and September 2016 battles of the year in the province of Aleppo showed the real essence of ISIS and what tasks are set before it: to provide minimal resistance to the Kurds and maximum to the rest.
By this time, Plan B of Washington had already entered its force, and ISIL quickly handed over the SDF and the Kurds from area to area, where they were able to dramatically increase due to mobilization of local populations into their ranks.
The Turkish “aggression” confused the US with all their plans. The ISIS attack units, instead of assisting the bleeding bloggers in Aleppo with the “brothers” of An-Nusra (forbidden by Russia), had to fight with recent allies and hold off their advance with all their might.
The 2016 fall fights of the year were turning points in the Syrian campaign. The Americans saw that their very beautiful plan had burst, and we need to find another solution.
Blitzkrieg in Syria sample 2017 of the year
By the beginning of December 2016, the situation on the fronts of Syria was as follows. Aleppo was almost taken by the CAA, and it was only a matter of time when the militants inside it capitulate. Turkish units and the “opposition” controlled by them linked ISIS in the El-Baba region. It was obvious to Washington that as soon as the CAA regrouped its forces and stopped worrying about the rear, it would continue its offensive operations at an ever-accelerating pace. Calculations have shown that to solve their problems in Syria militarily, Washington has a maximum of 2017 a year.
The new plan was, in fact, a blitzkrieg. The Kurds and the Arab SDF detachments were shipped across the Euphrates near Tabka. At the same time, the United States created a strike force in Jordan. A blow from the north and south cut through ISIS and allowed the "pro-American" forces to join and cut off the CAA to the east in the Palmyra region. But it took months for Washington to prepare. And this time they had to provide their constant Syrian wand wand, that is, ISIS.
At the beginning of December, the “caliphate” secretly regrouped its forces (many detachments were withdrawn from Mosul and were withdrawn from the Kurdish front) and hit government forces in the Palmyra region. A real disaster has broken out. The retreat of the parts of the CAA that held the Palmyra area turned into flight and was only stopped after 100 km.
Restoring the original position in the area took the Syrian and Russian command more than two months. Thus, ISIS won for Washington three whole precious months in preparation.
By the beginning of spring 2017, the situation in Syria for the government troops was very threatening. They only fought off Palmyra from the enemy, and they needed rest and regrouping of forces. But there was no time, since by that time intelligence was reporting on the beginning of the concentration of pro-American forces in Jordan and the preparation of the crossing of the Kurds to the right bank of the Euphrates in the area of Tabka.
The crossing of the Kurds coincided with a blow in the rear (end of March 2017 of the year). The Idlib group of the “opposition” launched a suicide attack. A rout was waiting for her, but it helped Washington win a couple of very important weeks.
The Americans delivered their main blow in the first days of May. Moreover, their "southern front" very quickly managed to take control of several strategic points in the Syrian desert. It seemed another pressure, and the goal will be achieved. The Russian response was elegant and deadly.
The plan, the implementation of which the United States had been preparing for six months, collapsed ... because of the enemy's craziness.
Meanwhile, the “tigers” of General Suheyl were able to cut off the Kurds all the way south in the area of Tabka, and thus finally buried the last American hopes to take control of important strategic areas on the right bank of the Euphrates.
Then there was a run to the south, during which the CAA managed almost everything. They completely liberated Deir-ez-Zor, created a bridgehead on its left bank, took the last capital of the “caliphate” Al-Mayadin in ten days, and established control over the most important communication center of south-eastern Syria, Al-Bukamal, yesterday .
But they could not take the main oil fields of Syria on the left bank of the Euphrates opposite Al-Mayadin, although they really wanted to.
Summing up the fight
To understand who won the war in Syria, and who lost, you need to decide on a point of reference. If you take the 2011 year, then Bashar Asad and the people of Syria lost. Their country is destroyed and split, and its future has not yet been fully determined.
But if you push off from the 2015 or 2016 situation of the year ...
In the year 2015, one could expect that the United States would be able to control a significant part of Syria and thereby incline the country's leadership to surrender. Even Russia's intervention did not guarantee another victory, but only gave a chance to achieve it in the future.
In the 2016 year, before Turkey moved to the anti-American camp, everything was very sad. Until the summer, everything was hanging by a thread. And only in December it was possible to breathe a little calmly.
2017 year started not very. Until the middle of June, until the American blitzkrieg was completely disrupted, everything could have gone according to a not very consoling scenario. And only the dedication of the troops, a certain insolence and justified risk allowed by the end of June to eliminate the main threat to the American blitzkrieg.
Today we can safely say that the war has been won. Won, despite the most difficult conditions and very weak initial conditions. It won despite the fact that Washington created a seemingly flawless plan to reformat Syria, Iraq and the entire Middle East. Today, pro-American forces are thinking how to save the situation, and, by and large, they have no good way out. They need to negotiate with Bashar Asad on his terms and hope that fate will give them another chance in the future.