Neighborliness on the "Needle"
Of the 10 ASEAN member countries, Russia, like the USSR, has never supplied arms only to Brunei. But the armies of Cambodia and Laos are still equipped almost exclusively with Soviet equipment. Unfortunately, the solvency of both is traditionally low, which did not matter for the USSR, but is essential for Russia.
In the post-Soviet period, Cambodia did not purchase weapons from Russia at all, and Laos only purchased a certain number of Igla-1 MANPADS and transport helicopters (6 Mi-17, 7 Ka-32, 1 Mi-26). Basically, these countries are now shopping in China and Eastern Europe, since prices are lower there.
Loud statements by Philippine President Duterte about the possibility of mass purchases of Russian weapons have not yet led to real serious contracts. The Philippines is traditionally the main ally of the United States in ASEAN, their armed forces are completely focused on American and Israeli weapons, therefore it will be extremely difficult to even partially switch to our weapons and military equipment.
The volume of military-technical cooperation between Russia and Thailand is also extremely modest. Bangkok purchased 5 Mi-17 helicopters and 54 Igla MANPADS. In the Thai market, the positions of China and the United States are very strong, and it is difficult for us to break into it in the first place for political reasons.
The military-technical cooperation between Russia and Singapore is symbolic, materialized only by 30 Igla MANPADS.
Malaysia acquired in post-Soviet Russia 18 MiG-29 and Su-30, 2 Mi-17 helicopters, 400 Igla MANPADS. The Air Force of the country should decide in the near future which fighter they will acquire to replace the MiG-29s purchased in the early 90s. If an appropriate tender is announced, Russia will most likely offer either an additional number of Su-30s or MiG-35s.
In the 2000s, a major buyer of Russian weapons was Myanmar. Its armed forces acquired a hundred D-30 howitzers, a S-125 air defense division, 38 Tunguska air defense missile systems, 30 MiG-29 fighters, 3 Yak-130 UBS, 10 Mi-35P combat helicopters, and multi-purpose Mi-24 and Mi-17 acquired a dozen. In 2015, a contract was signed for the supply of 16 Russian aviation RD-33 engines for a similar number of Chinese JF-17 fighters to be built for Myanmar in Pakistan. But it should be noted that its solvency is low, the country's opportunities in military-technical cooperation are limited. Until recently, an important advantage of Russia in the Myanmar arms market was that Western countries did not sell weapons to it for political reasons, considering the country a military dictatorship, and in fact China was our only competitor. However, after the withdrawal of the military from power, relations between the West and Myanmar may improve significantly, including through military-technical cooperation.
Indonesia acquired even more Russian military equipment - 54 BMP-3, 12 BTR-80A, 5 Su-27, 11 Su-30, 5 Mi-35P, 18 Mi-17. The delivery of the latest Russian Su-35S fighters is being actively discussed. However, the number of cars in the contract has already decreased from 16 to 11, and yet it has not yet been signed. This is due to Jakarta's lack of funds, so the fate of the deal is currently unclear. For the same reason, it is extremely difficult to talk about the purchase of any other Russian weapons by the Indonesian Armed Forces.
Hanoi remains Moscow’s main partner in the field of military-technical cooperation in the SEA region, which orders more military equipment from Russia than all the other ASEAN countries combined, and is one of the three largest buyers of our weapons in the world. During the Soviet and recent periods, he acquired from the USSR and Russia a huge amount of military equipment of all classes. Now the Vietnamese Armed Forces (“Hanoi's Ark”, “VPK”, No. 23, 2016) are purchasing naval, air force and air defense equipment from us. Recently, the largest contract for the construction of 6 Russian submarines of project 636 for Vietnam was completed. For them, 50 SLCM 3M54 and 80 torpedoes 53-65 and TEST-71 were purchased. The second largest contract is for 10 project 12418 missile boats (in addition to the previously delivered four project 12411), of which 8 are to be built in Vietnam itself. To date, 8 units have already been introduced into the Navy, of which 6 are of our own manufacture. In addition, contracts were signed for the construction of 4 Project 11661 frigates for the Vietnamese Navy in addition to two ships of this type purchased earlier. For them and project 12418 boats, 400 X-35 Uran anti-ship missiles are being purchased. Earlier, Vietnam received 6 project 10412 patrol boats from Russia.
The fourth contract for the supply of Su-30 fighter-bombers for the Air Force has already been completed. A total of 36 aircraft have been ordered. Earlier, Vietnam acquired 12 Su-27 fighters. In 2015, the implementation of the contract for the modernization of three divisions of the Soviet S-125 air defense system of Vietnam to the S-125TM variant was completed. In addition, Hanoi received two divisions of S-300PMU1 air defense systems, as well as the most modern Bastion coastal missile system with Yakhont anti-ship missiles.
Currently, Vietnam has no political restrictions in the field of military-technical cooperation, however, it prefers to acquire well-known, mastered Russian equipment. It is likely that the country will buy additional Su-30s, and there is a lot of interest in the Su-35S. In Vietnam, in the near future, it is planned to launch the production of missiles of various classes and types (anti-ship missiles, anti-tank missiles, missiles) under Russian licenses. Obviously, ground-based air defense equipment will be purchased, which requires a complete update. The same applies to ground forces. In the post-Soviet period, their technical component was not updated at all. Purchase of several dozens expected tanks T-90A.
At the same time, Vietnam began to actively acquire weapons and equipment from the United States, Spain, Israel, Australia, and Korea. So far, the volume of purchases from them is much less than under contracts with Russia, but the trend is obvious.
The states of Southeast Asia seem to us to be very attractive allies and economic partners, since on the whole they have significant financial resources and do not have serious political contradictions with us. But the development of military-technical cooperation with Russia is influenced by the relations of these countries with the United States and China. For a long time we will have to divide our clients from Southeast Asia into “Vietnam and all the rest”. For the foreseeable future, no ASEAN country can replace Hanoi as Moscow's special partner.
Russia's main problem in relations with the states of the region is our too close rapprochement with Beijing. For ASEAN members, China is the main threat. They really need counterbalances from the PRC, one of which they have long considered Russia. But Moscow does not justify these hopes, which is bad both for the countries of Southeast Asia and for ourselves.
In addition to the ASEAN countries, one can mention their neighbor from the west of Bangladesh. She consistently buys Russian weapons. From 1992 to 2016, this country acquired up to 645 armored personnel carriers-80 of various modifications (after the completion of deliveries, it will have the second fleet of these vehicles in the world after the RF Armed Forces), 1200 Metis ATGMs, 8 MiG-29 fighters (including 2 training combat) and 96 R-73 air-to-air missiles for them, 16 training Yak-130 and 33 Mi-8 and Mi-17 helicopters. Dhaka does not have a lot of money, but we have good prospects in this market.
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