Military Review

Bundeswehr predicted 6 developments in the EU before 2040

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The Bundeswehr analyzed the 6 possible scenarios that could trigger events in the European Union before the 2040 year, the most pessimistic scenario involves the disintegration of the European community, reports Kommersant with reference to the weekly Der Spiegel.




The report is called "Strategic Perspectives-2040". The defense ministry examined scenarios from the most optimistic (“Global West: The EU thrives and spreads its culture and influence”) to the most pessimistic (“The EU collapses: decades of instability destroy international agreements, which for Germany leads to numerous clashes”).

According to analysts, either the aggression on the part of Russia or the consequences of Brexit can lead to the disintegration of the EU. In this case, countries will not join the EU, many members will come out of it, Europe will lose its competitiveness in the world, and the number of conflicts will grow.

The remaining four scenarios look like this: “Peaceful large regions (EU grows and integration increases with the expansion of trade relations), Status quo (stable position with a strong German economy and peaceful neighborhood), Multi-polar competition (extremism pushes EU member states to more nationalistic politicians) and the West against the East (some Eastern EU members step out of it to create their own bloc). ”

For all scenarios, how they affect Germany and its policies and situation will be considered.

The report was prepared by the Bundeswehr Planning Department and the command in February of this year. For the first time, military analysts have prepared such a long-term forecast, with the possibility of the EU disintegrating.

After preparing a general forecast, the Bundeswehr will also develop detailed military plans for each of the scenarios.
Photos used:
http://www.globallookpress.com
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  1. 32363
    32363 8 November 2017 14: 34 New
    +6
    clowns led by a gynecock
    1. Anarchist
      Anarchist 8 November 2017 14: 37 New
      14
      Well, thank God, even though Russia has not been forgotten! And what about us? There is no way without us!
      They go to the toilet with '' Russia '' on their lips ... Instead of a laxative!
      1. cniza
        cniza 8 November 2017 14: 41 New
        +6
        And why exactly 6 scenarios? for more imagination was not enough, or why not three?
        1. Jedi
          Jedi 8 November 2017 14: 45 New
          10
          Because 6 people took part in developing possible scenarios. lol
          1. cniza
            cniza 8 November 2017 14: 51 New
            +4
            Quote: Jedi
            Because 6 people took part in developing possible scenarios. lol

            Ingenious. Hi, Max! hi
            1. Jedi
              Jedi 8 November 2017 14: 54 New
              +6
              Hello Victor! hi I just don’t have a very high opinion of the level of Western intelligence. yes
              1. cniza
                cniza 8 November 2017 15: 01 New
                +3
                So therefore, six, no more specialists. lol
                1. bulvas
                  bulvas 8 November 2017 15: 18 New
                  +3
                  It would be better to continue to make cars.

                  Scenarios, forecasts - not them
                  1. cniza
                    cniza 8 November 2017 15: 44 New
                    +2
                    Quote: bulvas
                    It would be better to continue to make cars.


                    Here is a businesslike and correct proposal, and without them there.
        2. Anarchist
          Anarchist 8 November 2017 14: 45 New
          10
          Victor, welcome!
          Quote: cniza
          And why exactly 6 scenarios? for more imagination was not enough, or why not three?

          I give a hint
          1. cniza
            cniza 8 November 2017 14: 51 New
            +3
            Greetings to Alexander! hi , the word six is ​​their credo, it affirms. lol
        3. NIKNN
          NIKNN 8 November 2017 14: 50 New
          +5
          Quote: cniza
          And why exactly 6 scenarios? for more imagination was not enough, or why not three?

          All wrong. The only scenario is that those who, like suckers in the EU, have been lured to rob them and leave them in eternal slaves because of debts, they will understand that they have sucked and will send this EU. Only Ukraine can be an exception ... they will never understand, but the EU and the Ukrainians did not have much torture, so it’s not clear who is lucky ... request
          1. cniza
            cniza 8 November 2017 15: 00 New
            +3
            Are they so disguised?
            1. NIKNN
              NIKNN 8 November 2017 15: 16 New
              +6
              Quote: cniza
              Are they so disguised?

              Who will take them apart? request
              In the morning, Leo Tolstoy went mowing. He waved oblique and thought:
              - What a good thing! Only hard physical labor allows a person to think, feel and improve.
              The peasants, standing at a distance, said this:
              - Why does the gentleman mow the cabbage?
              - Who will understand them, educated?
        4. BMP-2
          BMP-2 8 November 2017 19: 50 New
          +4
          Because to answer the question: “And what result will these scenarios bring?”, Three fingers on each hand are needed! repeat
          1. cniza
            cniza 8 November 2017 20: 09 New
            +3
            You outshone everyone. good
            1. BMP-2
              BMP-2 8 November 2017 21: 47 New
              +3
              Serving the working people! soldier

              A correctly posed question contains 90% of the answer! wink
    2. 79807420129
      79807420129 8 November 2017 14: 54 New
      10
      Bundeswehr analyzed 6 possible scenarios

      Avon like, the soul of Baba Wanga reincarnated in the Bundeswehr. laughing
      1. Nasrat
        Nasrat 8 November 2017 15: 07 New
        +1
        Quote: 79807420129
        Bundeswehr analyzed 6 possible scenarios

        Avon like, the soul of Baba Wanga reincarnated in the Bundeswehr. laughing

        Baba Wang and not predicted that wassat :

  2. Shura Perm
    Shura Perm 8 November 2017 14: 35 New
    +2
    While they have roosters in power, they will only live worse
  3. Sergei75
    Sergei75 8 November 2017 14: 40 New
    +1
    Again, the imperialists conceived something nasty ...
  4. stolz
    stolz 8 November 2017 14: 46 New
    +4
    And why did the Bundeswehr come up with predictions? It would be better if we studied the materiel and serviced the equipment.
    1. Kerensky
      Kerensky 8 November 2017 15: 10 New
      +1
      And why did the Bundeswehr come up with predictions?

      I completely agree. Well, if the Bundeswehr has taken, now all the other offices will spawn.
  5. Shadow of darkness
    Shadow of darkness 8 November 2017 14: 48 New
    +2
    The attack of Russia? And why didn’t they consider options: the fall of an asteroid, the invasion of aliens and the explosion of the sun ?! I can offer more options, such as the biblical ones: the Flood, the second coming of Christ, and a remake of Sodom and Gomorrah! fool
    1. BMP-2
      BMP-2 8 November 2017 19: 54 New
      +2
      Well, they also considered the most pessimistic options! laughing
  6. demo
    demo 8 November 2017 14: 48 New
    +2
    I look at the photo and it seems to me that the German Minister of Defense is tormented by the question - where is the uterus?
  7. Semenov
    Semenov 8 November 2017 14: 50 New
    0
    The consequences of Brexit are not disclosed. And so the article would get more "pluses" for "honey to your liking."
  8. Masya masya
    Masya masya 8 November 2017 14: 53 New
    +4
    Pretty predictions ... or pan, or gone ... wink the other four are so, for the sake of formality ...
  9. yuliatreb
    yuliatreb 8 November 2017 14: 54 New
    0
    About the seventh option, not a word, but the scenario of this option is a historical pattern, the Germans know the history of their country.
  10. Livonetc
    Livonetc 8 November 2017 14: 58 New
    +2
    Photos from a typical German film older than 16.
    Hans changes the track on a self-propelled gun Frau.
    Well and further according to the usual scenario.
  11. Herculesic
    Herculesic 8 November 2017 15: 11 New
    +1
    There is the seventh option - in the EU, psychiatrists will totally seize power, wassat and all politicians will be stolen in foolishness fool It’s a pity that this option is the most difficult to implement! crying am
    1. BMP-2
      BMP-2 8 November 2017 19: 58 New
      +2
      Why there: a cry must be thrown about the recruitment of voluntary assistants to psychiatrists! laughing
  12. solzh
    solzh 8 November 2017 15: 30 New
    0
    laughing The prophets of the stick-tree. Bundeswehr transition to esotericism. But seriously, I did not notice any serious forecasts. There can be only one forecast for the EU, FULL DEGRADATION
  13. Razvedka_Boem
    Razvedka_Boem 8 November 2017 16: 51 New
    0
    The other four scenarios look like this

    Looks like it could happen.
    According to analysts, either the aggression by Russia or the consequences of Brexit could lead to the collapse of the EU

    Aggression from Russia can only happen if NATO, for its part, tries to do with Kaliningrad what they think Russia did with Crimea ..)
    The rest is somehow fluid ..) Expected more ..
  14. APASUS
    APASUS 8 November 2017 18: 38 New
    +2
    I watch the Bundeswehr went into analytics, what's this? Oh and the gynecologist will lead them in .............
    1. Amurets
      Amurets 9 November 2017 00: 35 New
      +1
      Quote: APASUS
      Oh and the gynecologist will lead them in .............

      As usual, in the examination room.
  15. gromoboj
    gromoboj 10 November 2017 00: 54 New
    0
    The Bundeswehr is far from guessing at 2040m, few will remember the taste of pork sausages and beer with schnapps, as most will go to the mosque.