It was this autumn that most of the predictions of numerous military experts and political scientists made about the repeated complication of the global military-political situation by the end of 2017, were confirmed. The Middle East is no exception. At the end of October, the southeastern territories of the Syrian theater of war were fully covered by the active phase of the confrontation for reaching the frontier of the most important strategic center in the mainstream of the Euphrates - the city of Abu Kemal, where the coalition of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), The Special Operations Forces and the United States Marine Corps have been very successful offensive thanks to bribing the leaders of ISIL, and the units of the Syrian Arab Army under the command of General Al-Hassan Suheil (supported by e videoconferencing Russian and Iraqi militias "Hashid Al Shaab") are forced to use complex tactical developments and generally operate at full capacity.
Hopefully, the use of high precision weaponslaunched with diesel submarines and tactical aviation The Russian Aerospace Forces will help the Syrian army quickly begin to storm the last remaining bridgehead of the pseudo-caliphate, because on our side the main operational and strategic advantage is the location of Abu Kemal on the west bank of the Euphrates, which makes it possible to deploy heavy weapons, including basic military Tanks, self-propelled artillery and ARVs without the need to overcome the Euphrates. For the States and the Kurds, the situation here is much more complicated: to enter the city you need to storm the Euphrates, which will take additional hours of valuable time. Today we will return to the consideration of an equally important situation that is becoming threatening to the security of our state.
Operational and tactical situation on the outskirts of Abu Kemal
We are talking about several acts of sabotage and terrorism committed against Russian border guards in the area of the Armyansk checkpoint in August 2016, as well as against power supply and gas supply centers of villages located on the southern coast of the Republic of Crimea in the vicinity of Alushta and Grape 31 in October 2017. In the first case, on the night of 7 in August 2016 of the year, during a short-term operation to detain the Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance unit breaking through to the territory of Crimea, as a result of fire contact, the border guard officer of the FSB of Russia Roman Kamenev and the airborne serviceman Semyon Sychev died. Moreover, a little later, on Monday night, another Ukrainian DRG attempted to enter the peninsula on the peninsula. This time her fire support was carried out using automatic cannons (AP) and large-caliber machine guns of armored vehicles of the border formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine located in the Kherson region. Is not this military aggression, which was necessary to stop by force? Even then, there was the possibility of an asymmetric response using self-propelled anti-tank missile systems "Chrysanthemum-S", the transfer of which to the Crimean anti-tank players were so good about our media in 2014. Why were the complexes not located near the border in such an unstable operational-tactical situation? After all, in the end it could lead to other tragic consequences. Nevertheless, we again “lost”, positioning ourselves as heralds of peaceful methods of conflict resolution.
Despite the fact that the attack was not carried out by ordinary nationalist militants from Azov or the Right Sector, who were in a state of drug intoxication, but by motivated militants trained by the Defense Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine, the only thing that was taken in response the increase in units of the Border Guard Service of the Federal Security Service of Russia, as well as a very mild statement by President Vladimir Putin that “at first glance, this is a stupid criminal act that is not capable of polo itelno affect the Crimean, and can also lead to loss of life, and is a very dangerous game. " The statement is very verified and thoughtful, but, first, a sequence of tragic incidents with the death of Russian servicemen at the hands of Ukrainian militants already takes place, and far from all the participants in the criminal action suffered responsibility for the attack.
In particular, only accomplices of the Ukrainian DRG, Yevgeniy Panov and Andrei Zakhtey, were detained, while the militants who caused the fatal wound to Roman Kamenvu were eliminated on the spot, and a group of Ukrainian security forces who deprived the life of our paratrooper Semyon Sychev, with impunity, fled to the territory of Kherson . And all these tragic events did not become a pretext for harsh retaliatory actions: only blind "concern" was expressed. And note that our Ukrainian "friends" broke into the Republic of Crimea far from empty-handed. Magnetic and contact mines, fuses, TNT and grenades were found in their backpacks, the use of which we are observing today. We didn’t even bother to complicate the border crossing procedure: for a trip to Russia, it’s enough just to present an internal document, while our citizens must present a foreign passport without fail. Is not it absurd?
It is also worth noting that the Russian-Ukrainian border in the Republic of Crimea is not equipped with specialized optical-electronic complexes, which allow the FSB border units to promptly notify the penetration of unknown persons from the Ukrainian territory. On the other hand, in November 2016 of the SBU were able to lightly detain two servicemen of the Russian army (Maxim Odintsov and Alexander Baranov) in the Crimea near the Dzhankoy checkpoint. No serious actions followed from the Russian side after that, which is why the Ukrainian Nazis drew even more “on feats”, and not in the border area of the peninsula, but in its depth. Remembering history With the undermining of power lines in the Kherson region at night, November 22 2015, unknown Ukrainian forces quite successfully carried out a similar sabotage operation October October 31, but on the southern coast of the Republic of Crimea. Thus, as a result of a gas pipeline explosion in Zaprudny, a gas distribution station in Vinogradny and power transmission towers in 100 kW, more than 3 thousand people in Vinogradny, Maly Mayak, Utes and Pushkino remained without gas and electricity supply near the monument to the Crimean partisans. Another undermining of power lines was carried out near the Angarsk pass, - the Dobrovskaya valley in the Simferopol region was left without power supply. To date, nothing except the “Ukrainian trace” of the anti-terror unit of the FSB, the border service of the FSB of the Russian Federation and the Rosguard has been identified, despite the fact that the explosions were carried out alternately, in a short period of time, and within a radius of just 15 km from Alushta.
It is obvious that in all cases modern explosive devices were used, equipped with electronic time retarders with lithium-ion batteries. Such devices belong to the most low-intensity radio-emitting sources, and therefore their search is carried out exclusively by means such as: the remote-controlled unmanned system for detecting explosive devices “Dragonfly” (based on an average octacopter) with a non-linear search radio-frequency radio, a detector of explosive devices with electronic “stuffing” The Neva-ML, equipped with a parabolic radar detector S / H / X-bands, as well as a manual set of direction finding time retarders Anker-4Е.
Nonlinear portable radar detection of explosive devices "Neva-ML"
To search for explosive devices with different types of watch retarders by means of the above devices, it is necessary to spend from several hours to several weeks, depending on the complexity of the relief and the area of the scanned territory. The likelihood of using radio-controlled explosive devices in Crimea is insignificant, since the mobile radio electronic intelligence complexes available to our special forces could easily detect a bearing on the command control device of an explosive device in the hands of saboteurs. It is already clear that the era of the assault of headless drug addicts from Ukrainian do-it-yourself workers has passed, and we are dealing with well-trained saboteurs of the “Square” intelligence services, who regularly update the experience of our overseas “colleagues”. As you can see, the overly lenient position of our state in relation to Ukrainian terrorist antics (this applies to both vague foreign policy rhetoric and the direct lack of adequate response at the operational-tactical level) is quite capable of leading to the continuation of subversive actions in the Republic of Crimea. At the same time, Kiev is not going to stop at that.
It is well known that by November 17 of 2017, in the second reading, the revised draft law No. XXUMX “On Donbass Reintegration” will be re-introduced to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, including a decent number of amendments, one of which is the recognition of Russia as “aggressor country”, and the creation and implementation of the mechanisms of the so-called "restoration of state sovereignty over the Crimea." All of us have long been accustomed to the marasmic and provocative actions of the new, illegitimate leadership of the “Square”, heroically and at the same time, in idiotically tolerating quite serious border fire contacts, ending for our citizens tragically, we observe the “Minsk format”, because of which in the hands of Kiev of the regime, Mariupol continued to remain, and Dontsk-Makeevka agglomeration was in the Bussols of the Ukrainian artillerymen, but this time we can be seriously shaken. And believe me, it will be far from “an expression of concern”! "Fighting off" will have all possible methods.
Operational and strategic picture of the Donbass theater of operations and on the Crimean border, Kiev, together with specialists from the Pentagon, "painted" about one and a half years ago. The number of barrel and rocket artillery units (D-20, D-30, 2А65 "Msta-B" howitzers, Gvozdika and Akatsiya SAU, Grad, MLNO 9K51, 9KXNNXX Uragan and 57KKHKHNKX MLRS XKHKHKHNKXKHKHKHNKXKHKHKHNKXKHKHNKXKHKHNKXKHKHNKXHKHNKXHKHNKXHKHNXX Grad, 9KhNXXHU Uragan and 58KHNXX Grad than 250 - 350 units, which is a bit like the situation with North Korea's artillery, and Seoul within its range. Many allegations can be heard that Kiev will not start military aggression against the Republic of Crimea under any pretext, since this will end in the complete defeat of the Ukrainian military formations and natsbat (including all the strongholds inside and the remaining weapons depots in the "Square") and the liberation of all southern and eastern regions from the control of the illegal Ukrainian authorities.
From the operational-tactical and technical point of view, attack and army aviation of the VKS (Su-30CM / M2, Su-34, Su-27CM and Ka-52) deployed at the air bases of the Southern Military District, when targeting aircraft from the strategic optical-electronic and radio intelligence Tu-214R, really just a few days is able to completely destroy most of the active artillery positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The fat point here will put divisions of operational-tactical missile systems "Iskander-M" and "Caliber", successfully used today against the IG in Syria. Also, with the help of operational-tactical ballistic missiles 9М723 and winged 9М728 Iskander-M complexes, as well as X-58 anti-radar missiles, very impressive air defense of “Square” based on more than XNUM will be “hacked”, cracked, more than NNUMX, based on more than XNUM, more than on the NUMNUMX, using more than 90NUM15MANUM. C-300PS, which will enable the use of attack aircraft to fight land forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and nationalist battalions on the approaches to the Crimea and the Donbass.
Despite the fact that the above outcome is recognized as Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Viktor Muzhenko, regularly voicing the alleged losses of the Ukrainian formations, estimated at tens of thousands of people, drugs, so Poroshenko with Turchinov, their “overseas masters” have already finally decided on the last destination of Ukraine in the Eastern European theater of operations as a springboard to maintain a long-term escalation environment on our western borders. We all clearly see that the economic sanctions of the West against our state have proved extremely ineffective. Idris Jazairi, UN Special Rapporteur on the negative impact of unilateral coercive measures on the enjoyment of human rights, noted the successful restructuring of the Russian economic system under all sanctions costs in order to adapt to the current situation. The system of import substitution, which, with a decent scientific and technical potential of the country, already today works well not in favor of Western European companies, works well.
Consequently, the West will try to "advance" the military-political destabilization simultaneously in all disputed regions, from their point of view, near our borders. As is known, Transdniestria, the Crimea with the Donbas, and even South Ossetia and Abkhazia are included here. But if, for example, in Georgia, the operational and strategic ground for re-burning the conflict is only at the preparatory stage, then everything is ready at the borders of the Crimea and at the line of contact on the LDNR for active hostilities. And the activity of the main American “peacemaker-contractor” - the special representative of the US State Department for Ukraine Kurt Walker, who is the author of numerous Russophobic statements, as well as the director of the McCain Institute in Arizona, plays a significant role. Recently, he has often visited Kyiv, and also appeals to the Ukrainian side with extremely unusual appeals.
In particular, October 27 2017, Kurt Volker arrived in Kiev with an unplanned visit. According to the official version, a high-ranking official of the US State Department “painted” in the capital “Square” to assess the internal situation against the background of unrest on ul. Grushevskogo. But is this a real expediency? Really, in Kiev, to the eyeballs filled with US intelligence officers (including the placement of the CIA branch in the main building of the Security Service of Ukraine) there are no verified and savvy informants who are capable of transmitting information to Washington with 100% accuracy. Of course, there are such persons; which means that an unplanned visit by Volcker was purely anti-Russian in nature, especially considering that he was made shortly after the statements on the situation in Donbas made by Vladimir Putin on the margins of the Valdai Forum, where the Russian leader finally expressed a firm position about the inadmissibility of a “breakthrough” »On the territory of the LDNR nationalist military groupings and the implementation of the“ Croatian scenario ”. Diametrically opposed to the statement by McCain's student (during 97 of the year, Volker held the position of lawyer in the team of J. McCain) about “Ukraine’s successes in developing a powerful anti-Russian position” turned this visit into a kind of diplomatic counterweight to Vladimir Putin’s statements.
This is only one of the plans of the United States diversification in loosening the situation on the contact line, the main purpose of which is to demonstrate the support of the Ukrainian side in the confrontation with the LDNR, and possibly the Russian Federation. Against this background, let's not forget that military aid for Kiev has already been put on stream: today it’s the Barret M82A3 large-caliber rifles and the AN / TPQ-36 “Firefinder” counter-battery radar of artillery reconnaissance, tomorrow any type of lethal weapons worth 47 million dollars . It is towards the latest configuration of the military-technical assistance package for Kiev that the US Department of Defense and the State Department are now inclined, as reported by the November 2008 edition of ABC News, citing the circle of US national security adviser Herbert McMaster.
As you have already understood, a very impressive amount of modern high-precision weapons can be purchased for 47 million dollars: from 280 to 320 anti-tank guided missiles FGM-148 "Javelin" (depending on the terms of the contract and cost), several dozen equally dangerous anti-tank missile systems FOGM equipped with MGM-157 rockets with a fiber-optic control system and a television GOS in the amount of several hundred rockets, as well as several thousand mortar and artillery corrected projectiles with 120 caliber mm and PERM) and 155 mm (XM-982 «Excalibur»). For the use of the latter can be purchased several ACS "Paladin" or "Krab". Recall that developed three options for providing military assistance to Kiev, two of which have not been disclosed.
The last word in the implementation of a ready-made “aid package”, naturally, remains signed by Donald Trump, who will not be hard to put pressure on in Russophobic “hawks” using media tools. Everyone knows that the situation of the American president today is extremely precarious, and will become even more precarious if Abu Kemal is taken under control by the forces of the Syrian Arab Army. In this case, the question of the need for a successful military solution to the conflict in the Donbas will arise for the Trump administration even more acutely, otherwise the American leader will experience a grand political failure with the likely loss of a “rudder”.
Immediately before disclosing information about the readiness to provide Kiev with a 45 million-dollar military aid package, the Pentagon, using the main protagonist of the “Ukrainian multi-move” Kurt Walker, is trying to resort to the vigilance tactics of Moscow, Donetsk and Luhansk. Suddenly unbelievable appeals began to burst from the mouth of Volcker. So, November 3 2017, Volker suggested Ukraine not to submit to the UN a competing draft resolution on the configuration of the peacekeeping mission in Donbass, but try to work out an even more “effective” concept of the peacekeeping mission within the Russian resolution, and then try to coordinate it with Moscow. It sounds extremely strange and unexpected, as well as extremely illogical for the Russophobic policy of Washington, especially against the background of the upcoming deliveries of "independent" lethal weapons in anticipation of a large-scale escalation in the Donbass theater. It is obvious that behind all this, in addition to putting down vigilance, lies some very unpleasant trick, which we will learn about in the near future.
In particular, it is very likely that the Donbass is just a step away from a major military provocation, which Washington and Brussels will model to accuse Moscow of aggravating the contact line and unanimously blocking the Russian draft resolution within the UNSC. And, as you have already managed to guess, this provocation must be carried out without delay, since the maximal momentum of the escalating “impeller” at the Donbas military theater should gain 2018 by March, when all internal and external enemies of Russia will raise their heads in order complete exhaustion and further "softening" of power structures and the ideological basis of the "Russian World".
The main result, in the plans of the US and European anti-Russian "hawks", is to bring Moscow to the inability to respond effectively to external operational-strategic threats against the background of general chaos within the state and in its immediate vicinity. Here, both the Crimea and Transnistrian Transnistrian Transnistria “will be pulled along the chain. “Expression of concern” in the absence of immediate countermeasures in this case will not pass. Now let's take a look at the very important details of preparing Kiev for a new stage of the conflict in the Donbas with the previous provocation. These details are chronologically and conceptually perfectly combined with the updated criminal draft law “On the Reintegration of Donbass”, which is being prepared for adoption in the second reading, as well as with the above described transfer of lethal weapons to the junta.
So, recently in the accounts of numerous pro-government Ukrainian politicians you can find information about the armored and artillery units of the Land Forces of Russia, allegedly arriving on the territory of the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, being prepared from a large-scale offensive operation. Pavel Zhebrivsky, chairman of the occupation sharashka administration of the former Donetsk region, said aloud the same fake information, stating that “the battalion-tactical groups of the SV of Russia are deployed in Donetsk and Snezhny.” Today, this is absolutely not true, but with the current dynamics of aggravation preserved, this is exactly what will happen, because the very tragic and bloody “Croatian scenario” is as close as ever.
This is the tactical map of the Sunday work of artillery of the Ukrainian militants in residential areas of Donetsk. In the strongest artillery strike in the last months of 9, a huge number of artillery and rocket artillery points of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were deployed, both in the Skilled and Avdiivka areas (Grady, Acacia, and D-30), and in the vicinity of Lastochkino (Hyacinths, "Msta-B", etc.). It is noteworthy that the new "introductory" stage of escalation began immediately after the recent appeal to the junta-artillery formations
According to the latest information, coming on Sunday evening 5 November from the Donetsk operational direction of the DPR (North-Western Front of Novorossia in its present territories), Donetsk-Makeevka agglomeration was subjected to a powerful massive artillery strike from the Ukrainian MLRS 9K51 “Grad”, which were armed with a battalion tactical groups (OTGR) 25-th separate Dnepropetrovsk airborne brigade. In total, 120 NURSs were released: 80 unguided missiles (2 launchers) for the Yakovlevka locality and 40 (one BM) - for the WCT. Subsequently, the intensity of the shelling continued to increase, and the Pitmen, citing data from the Ministry of Defense of the DPR, reported on the arrival of the shells of ACS Giatsint in the Putilovka area. Meanwhile, the counter-battery fire from the artillery batteries of the People’s Militia of the DPR was opened almost in 40 minutes due to their diversion from the line of contact. At the time of the end of our work, the following also came under fire: Makeevka, Zhabichevo, Vesele, the territory of the A.A. Zasyadko, as well as JSC "Tochmash".
Whether the purpose of this firing was reconnaissance of the positions of the NM gunners of the DPR before a more prolonged artillery preparation, or whether the fire from the Gradov was made to provoke the militia to "otvetku" - is still unknown. But again the question arises: is it not time to end up with the “Minskami” and give a quiet life to the entire population of the NPT who attended the referendum ?! The situation again moves to a critical point. The decision of the military leadership of the LDNR and Russia should be made as soon as possible, as Poroshenko’s recent appeal to the Missile Forces and Artillery units “to be ready to move to the line of contact and join the battle at any moment” is an unequivocal hint to the final failure of the Russian peace settlement initiative and the transition to a new “hot” and merciless stage of confrontation.