BRICS: a blow to unipolarity
28 March The next BRICS summit started in New Delhi - the summit, in which the leaders of five states - Russia, China, India, Brazil and the Republic of South Africa - take part. This meeting is of great interest all over the world, because BRICS is not only almost half of the world's population, but also huge financial, energy and raw material resources. Before the start of the summit, many world experts expressed the opinion that the period of time when BRICS existed only conditionally passed, and it is time to make decisions about the real consolidation of the five countries listed above with the simultaneous adoption of a document regulating a certain form of further relations between these states. Indeed, without a legal basis, no association, even such an impressive one as BRICS, will be able to carry out productive activities. However, the documentary evidence of integration between the BRICS countries or “Trousers”, as Dmitry Medvedev suggested once calling this organization in the Russian manner, may well not take place, since at least two of the five states have serious mutual claims. We are talking about China and India.Since 60-ies between Delhi and Beijing, there are unresolved territorial issues that, in fact, interfere with the closer partnership between the two countries. China still believes that the state of Arunachal Pradesh should not be part of India, and India declares that China is actually occupying the Trans-Karakorum road. At the same time, talks about the need for urgent additional funding of the Indian army in order to be able to resist the PRC in case of possible aggression continue in New Delhi.
The situation between Beijing and New Delhi is far from unclouded because Dalai Lama XIV lives on Indian territory as an honored guest, to which Chinese authorities have more than enough complaints about the frequent actions of the reactionaries in Tibet. Beijing accuses the Dalai Lama and those who gave him asylum (in fact, the Indian authorities) of complicity with the West in order to crush China.
In the conditions of such a rather sharp dispute, it’s not yet necessary to talk about BRICS not just as an economic union, but also as a possible military-political alliance. However, there is more than enough potential for such cooperation among Beijing, Moscow, Pretoria, New Delhi and Brasilia.
What is the agenda of the BRICS summit in addition to the possible legal consolidation of the essence of this kind of association? Experts say that the leaders of the five states could well agree on a systematic reduction in the role of the dollar in the modern economy. Today, only too much optimist is convinced that the dollar will continue to remain afloat through 10, through 20, and even through 50 years. More pragmatic economists are inclined to believe that it is from BRICS that a currency can emerge that can fulfill the direct responsibilities of market regulation much more efficiently at the next stage of development than it is today (or rather, almost completely fails) to do the US dollar. Someone sees such a currency as a yuan, and someone draws the possibility of the emergence of some supranational currency - a peculiar analogue of the euro.
However, to say that in two days of the summit, the leaders of the five countries will agree to introduce a new world currency - too naive. But it is quite possible to expect that regular agreements on mutual settlements in national currencies will be concluded. This will be a vector for the further decline of the dollar role in the global economy.
Realizing that the March BRICS summit 2012, is able to lay a bomb under the current financial model, the West is trying to find reasons to point out the low viability of the union of 5 countries. In particular, it is interesting to discuss the opinion of the American economist Nouriel Roubini, who is known for predicting the 2008-2011 crisis (2012). He is confident that in the current composition of the BRICS association is not able to solve global problems. There is, in his opinion, among the “five” states that the role of a member of the BRICS is clearly not worthy. If you thought Roubini was talking about South Africa, then you were mistaken. The economist is sure that the development of BRICS "stops" the Russian Federation. The same position is taken by other prominent American and European economists (in particular, Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group). They are confident that with their nominal GDP in 1,9 trillion. Russia can’t be in the same row with such economic giants as four other BRICS countries (or already, it turns out, BICS). According to these gentlemen, it is time for the BRICS to replace Russia with either Turkey or Indonesia. It turns out that corruption does not allow Russia to enter such an elite club, which Indonesia’s superpower deserves to enter ...
After this kind of “expert assessments,” you begin to rightly doubt the adequacy of such respected gentlemen as Rubini (by the way, the Nobel laureate) or Bremmer. After all, it turns out that corruption is such a purely Russian phenomenon and it is not found anywhere else in the world: neither you in South Africa, nor Brazil, nor Indonesia, nor Turkey, what can we say about the United States ... And the reasoning about the obvious and the hopeless weakness of the Russian economy, which, whatever one may say, and in terms of growth rates is in the first four of the world, it is also impossible to name anything other than strange. It seems that it was not for nothing that a joke appeared in the world that the Nobel Committee needed to be understood as a sect that financially encourages the deepest errors of scientists from the United States of America ...
However, the opinion of American economists, who can not straighten out their debt economic model, we, of course, respect, but we will not pay too much attention to this opinion. We will not be yet because it is obvious for what purposes such an opinion is expressed: leave the Western financial system with a sort of economic banner for a certain period of time, retaining the dominant position of the dollar, on the basis of which, apparently, Mr. Rubini-sighted and open accounts in the US banks.
By the way, strengthening BRICS is not at all in the interests of the United States and the European Union, since the “five” have their own views not only on the economy, but also on geopolitics. In particular, all five countries are categorically against the start of a military operation against Iran, as well as against tougher sanctions against the Islamic Republic. And such unity strongly strikes the prestige of the whole West.
The BRICS summit is held in order to develop a new model of economic development and political stability, unlike the opinions of Western lobbyists. It is planned that new levers will be found in New Delhi in order to increase trade turnover between the BRICS countries. Today, the “five” annual turnover amounts to about 230 billion dollars, but this figure is clearly not consistent with the potentials of the BRICS countries. If the crisis in Sino-Indian relations is overcome, then this alone can contribute to a sharp increase in trade turnover. And it is time for Russian-Indian trade turnover to start growing at a more substantial pace. Today, it does not reach 12 billions of dollars a year, with a substantial part of the purchase and sale of weapons. Such a figure can be considered completely unacceptable for such huge economies. In only one area of precision engineering and space exploration, Russia and India have enormous prospects.
Another goal of the summit is to create a BRICS bank, which will credit the member countries of the community without seeking assistance from institutions like the IMF, for example. This “five” step can demonstrate, if not complete self-sufficiency, then serious ambitions, which the world obviously will have to reckon with. Most likely, lending will be made exclusively in RMB, which indicates the next step of the Chinese currency to the full-weight expulsion of the dollar from the world economic Olympus.
In this regard, it remains to expect that bilateral differences will not become an obstacle to the beginning of the formation of a new financial and political pole of the world.
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