Military Review

Restoring Donbass. For two, but today ...

22
Three and a half years after the beginning of the civil war in Ukraine, independent economists presented a fresh report on the level of economic damage caused by the armed conflict. The question in the study was asked as follows: how much money specifically needs to be invested in the Donbass today in order for it to be fully restored. For obvious reasons, the study contained an important nuance - taking into account the complete and final cessation of hostilities. That is, for analytical calculations, a model was created that considers the world in the Donbas - a hypothetical world and the model, respectively, is also hypothetical.


So, "the war is over - it is necessary to restore." How much would it cost today and where to look for resources (financial, human, other)?

Yasinovataya, northwestern, northern and western districts of Donetsk, Uglegorsk, Debaltseve, Lugansk suburbs are territories in which, according to approximate data of the authorities of the people's republics, more than 2014 of thousands of various buildings were destroyed, partially destroyed or damaged in May constructions. Among these buildings are not only high-rise residential buildings and small private households, but also educational facilities, healthcare facilities, transportation hubs, sports facilities, electricity generation facilities, coal mining, water supply, control systems,. Over 12, the buildings of schools and hospitals were actually re-arranged again - not without humanitarian aid from Russia. Moreover, they were restructured several times, taking into account the fact that the Ukrainian security forces inflicted new and new blows on the repaired objects from all available calibers.

Restoring Donbass. For two, but today ...


If repair and restoration work begins now, then at least Donetsk buildings and structures will need at least 40 billion rubles to restore. This is the most conservative estimate. Speaking about the situation with the total restoration of the entire destroyed infrastructure of the DPR and the LPR (including housing facilities), economists speak of the importance of at least 10-12 times more.
In other words, 400-500 billion rubles. These funds include such segments as Donetsk Airport and Donbass Arena. In particular, the construction of the aforementioned Donbass Arena, together with the entire adjacent infrastructure, at one time cost Mr. Akhmetov approximately $ 0,4 billion. At the current rate, about 24 billion rubles.

That is, up to 500 billion rubles - and this taking into account the fact that construction materials will be mainly provided “on site”. That is, their main volumes will not have to be transported from territories located hundreds of kilometers from the republics.

The lower level of investment in the restoration in the direction of "construction and repair" is declaratively defined. But the whole problem is that the restoration of Donbass today is not only a “construction” and “painting” business. Recovery, for obvious reasons, also concerns tens of thousands of jobs. For three and a half years since the beginning of the conflict, the republic's industrial production sectors have lost the lion’s share of capacity. The total exodus of the population began - in search of work. Up to 80% of qualified specialists and workers who left, they left for Russia. Over 55 thousands of jobs have been lost only in the transport and energy industries. In total, over a million people left the republics (on a permanent basis).

According to the latest estimates, the population of Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics (as of 1 in September of 2017 of the year) was about 3,5 million people. In order for the bulk of the workers who left the war to start working on the economy of Donbass again, a program is needed not just to restore industrial, transport, generating, banking and other links. A program is required to literally restart the entire regional economy. And these are dozens of enterprises, including mines, steel mills, power plants.

Restoration of one large metallurgical plant with the renewal of trade and economic ties that have been lost since the moment of the Maidan Peremoga is one billion dollars. Total investment in the full restoration of all that is lost in the industry during the war years is no less than 20 billion dollars. And this is more than 1,1 trillion rubles to those 500 billions, which were discussed above.

Subtotal - 1,6 trillion rubles. This is comparable to the annual amount of investment in the economy of such a city as, no less, Moscow.

But 1,6 trillion rubles is not the final cost figure needed to restore LDNR to the level of the pre-war period. It is not final, for the simple reason that it does not take into account the funds that have already been invested to ensure the life of the region and that are mastered to the extent of skill, talent and strength by local governing structures.

For example, building a completely new logistics to change the routes of sending Donbass coal to the same Ukraine cost and is still expensive. On the one hand, investments in transport hubs for transshipment of Donbass stone "gold" in the border areas of Russia can be viewed as investments in the Russian Federation itself, but in fact they are already investments in an integrated system that can be further developed and developed. Up to 4 billion rubles only for the creation of new transport logistics for coal.

And there is also logistics for communications and mass communications systems, banking operations, building a new system of law enforcement agencies, special services and security agencies, the organization of local government taking into account the total Ukrainian blockade of Donbass. This work in LDNR is far from being completed. It continues, and therefore the total amount clearly exceeds for 2 trillion rubles (about 35 billion dollars). What is called, if at a minimum.

Against this background, a very original expert opinion came from Ukraine — not from anyone, but from the advisor to the country's president, Alexander Paskhaver. According to adviser Petro Poroshenko, one of the problems of Donbass today, even if you find the means to restore it, is (attention!) The population of the region.

From Easterhawer's statement:
After the return of Donbas to Ukraine, it will be necessary to focus on the main problems.


One of the problems Poroshenko’s advisor calls the “problem” of the following nature:
The destructive socially ill after the war, the population will slow down the already slow process of modernization of the country.


That is, Poroshenko’s entourage a priori states that even after the “military victory”, the Donbass is a “burden for Ukraine”.

This is to the fact that such a plan is often heard in our country: they say, Moscow took a wait-and-see attitude. It will wait, they say, when Kiev itself will attend to the economic recovery of the region, and everything will be great. But Mr. Paskhaver unequivocally says: that Moscow does not get any of this for the simple reason that Kiev does not intend to restore the Donbass under any circumstances. Even under those conditions, when Moscow, God forbid, of course, she will decide to hand over the LDNR “to Kiev mercy”. Already they say that the population, you see, is “socially sick”, and therefore, Mother Ukraine will slow down.

Will the West help Ukraine rebuild the Donbass? A rhetorical question when taking into account the mentioned 35 billion dollars in the bottom line. Already, for the issuance of a lesser amount of Poroshenko by tens of times, almost Gopak is dancing in the IMF or on the lawn in front of the White House. And then 35 billion "greens". Especially since Kiev has already been lucidly explained that it has already received the “Marshall-2 plan” ... They also ask: where is the money?

There is only one conclusion in the end: the war in the Donbass needs to be slowed down with all the tools available, since it will still be necessary for Russia, the Russian taxpayer, to restore the region. Well, do not leave the ruins and scorched earth as a “monument” to the fact that the ambassadors of Russia in individual countries can sometimes break away from reality and not catch mice at all ...

And if you continue to pull the Volcker by the tail, then 2 trillion today can turn into 4, and 5, and 10 tomorrow. Note that we are only talking about economics. After all, there is also a humanitarian component - the fate of people.

Paskhaver and Peter Alekseevich washed their hands now, and therefore they will do everything to make Donbass finally come off as a really unbearable economically and truly depressed region. And they are already doing it, and hardly without prompting from partners.
Author:
Photos used:
http://www.globallookpress.com
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  1. Some kind of compote
    Some kind of compote 1 November 2017 16: 10 New
    16
    Restoring Donbass.

    Yeah
    1. 79807420129
      79807420129 1 November 2017 16: 19 New
      +7
      since restoring the region will still have to Russia, the Russian taxpayer. N

      Russia will only have to restore the region if LDNR is part of Russia. And the monuments have nothing to do with it, but when will it be? .... I won’t even bother. yes
      1. Some kind of compote
        Some kind of compote 1 November 2017 16: 22 New
        16
        Well, how - only when part of Russia?
        Well, we advocate for people
        Infrastructure also needed
        When will be - this is not clear
        1. 79807420129
          79807420129 1 November 2017 17: 01 New
          +8
          Quote: Some kind of Compote
          Well, how - only when part of Russia?

          In an extreme case, only as an independent state, a colleague, but not part of Ukraine. Now this is happening with South Ossetia and Abkhazia. But before that ..... I have not even said vanging. hi
          1. Some kind of compote
            Some kind of compote 1 November 2017 18: 03 New
            17
            You are right of course.
            My fellow countryman commanded a battery in the DPR army. Now it’s kind of like a staff service.
            He came for a visit - he says: "We do not want to be part of Russia." They want to be independent.
            There was an old saying: "An affectionate calf of two queens sucks." So they have - something comes from Kiev in the old fashioned way (in my opinion, even some pensions), something from Moscow (weapons and humanitarian aid).
            Such a situation is unlikely to last long. Although who knows. An example of Transnistria is
            hi
            1. German Titov
              German Titov 1 November 2017 18: 44 New
              +2
              Let me not believe you (most likely your "fellow countryman"). “Already plan to see the staff” (Hussar ballad). There is a very big difference between People who arrived in 2014-early 15, and "guests-colleagues on business interests." They restore the Donbass "to the lamp".
              1. Some kind of compote
                Some kind of compote 1 November 2017 20: 59 New
                16
                Do not believe
                I say what I heard
                People are just all different
                And their views, respectively, too
                1. German Titov
                  German Titov 1 November 2017 21: 46 New
                  +3
                  "The picture on the" avatar ", from the childhood of the beloved film -" Officers ". I had the honor to serve with the Officers of the Soviet Army (I am proud of). Do not believe the rumors." Intelligence "is usually checked. Guys 2014" salam "!
                  1. Some kind of compote
                    Some kind of compote 1 November 2017 22: 12 New
                    15
                    Well
                    Thank you! hi
            2. Mik13
              Mik13 2 November 2017 12: 23 New
              +1
              Quote: Some kind of Compote
              My fellow countryman commanded a battery in the DPR army. Now it’s kind of like a staff service.
              He came for a visit - he says: "We do not want to be part of Russia." They want to be independent.

              And in my opinion someone is lying.
              By the way, your compatriot accidentally does not have any officer’s daughter? But you never know ...
              1. Some kind of compote
                Some kind of compote 2 November 2017 19: 35 New
                15
                No, he himself married a Donetsk girl
                And when I arrived, I was looking for instructions, manuals and charters - still Soviet. And then he had D-30 howitzers in the battery, but there was no waste paper.
                All that I found was printed out (copied) and given away. The guy is right, they led the fire - well
      2. Vadim237
        Vadim237 1 November 2017 20: 17 New
        +4
        LDNR in its current state is an analogue of the Gaza Strip - constant shelling, for many years and our pursed tail policy will not allow them to be part of Russia - there would be a steel ridge, we would have conducted an operation to force the APU and all the thugs to the world - they surrounded everything during the night APU on the territory of the Lugansk and Donetsk region and put forward an ultimatum to give up - whoever wants to be destroyed, the rest kick in the ass from the territory of the regions, then a referendum, regardless of all the cries of Kiev and the West about fierce aggression - the war would end, because Kiev has nothing and not by anyone, it would be a fight.
  2. samarin1969
    samarin1969 1 November 2017 17: 43 New
    +2
    The author deliberately scares the consciousness and subconscious mind of readers with astronomical figures. ... why is he doing this -
    like - it's clear ..
    Yes, only the price of defeat in this war will be much higher than trillions of rubles ... Otherwise, somewhere in Malta, the lords of the electorate would have painted solitaire in the Donbass long ago.
    1. Volodin
      1 November 2017 18: 33 New
      +5
      Quote: samarin1969
      The author consciously scares the mind and subconscious


      It is a pity that your consciousness is so frightened that it cannot perceive the data on damage to the Donbas. It is good that after the war, the Soviet Union was led by people whose consciousness and subconscious were not so intimidated and allowed to restore the country from the ruins.
      1. samarin1969
        samarin1969 1 November 2017 18: 40 New
        +2
        Quote: Volodin
        Quote: samarin1969
        The author consciously scares the mind and subconscious


        "... After the war, the Soviet Union was led by people whose consciousness and subconscious were not so intimidated and allowed to restore the country from ruins.

        You are absolutely right about the USSR ...
      2. Reserve officer
        Reserve officer 1 November 2017 22: 01 New
        +2
        Quote: Volodin
        Quote: samarin1969
        The author consciously scares the mind and subconscious


        It is a pity that your consciousness is so frightened that it cannot perceive the data on damage to the Donbas. It is good that after the war, the Soviet Union was led by people whose consciousness and subconscious were not so intimidated and allowed to restore the country from the ruins.


        Alexey, I think your ratings are even underestimated. So, on the fingers, everything is impossible to take into account.
        As part of Ukraine, there will be no restoration - the Americans need territory, natural resources, shales, without a population. And as independent republics, there will also be no restoration - they will not be pulled. Only as part of Russia. But will they have a sincere desire to enter Russia, not for show, but in practice? And will the leadership of Russia have a desire to accept them, our territory, our people, our Soviet Donbass, who would not call it now? Some questions.
        And now the situation is just filthy. And, as they say, I don’t see something “light at the end of the tunnel”.
  3. Astoria
    Astoria 1 November 2017 18: 23 New
    +1
    Pick up people - blow the rest to hell. It makes no sense to restore.
  4. German Titov
    German Titov 1 November 2017 18: 29 New
    +4
    And what is actually restored at the Donbass Arena? Every day I drive by, both standing and standing (dust particles blow people away on gyro scooters nearby). First of all, it is necessary to restore the economy (in order to produce not “buy-sell” hashes, but competitive products at enterprises).
  5. Sergey-8848
    Sergey-8848 1 November 2017 20: 06 New
    +4
    As for the ambassadors of the Russian Federation in "individual states" who did not "catch mice," it was very correctly noticed. Three diplomats until 2001 (Smolyakov L.Ya., Dubinin Yu.V., Aboimov I.P.) - purely representative functions. Unforgettable Viktor Stepanovich Chernomyrdin (from 2001 to 2009) - in pursuit of the gas "nishtyaks", both the "nishtyaks" themselves and the Maidan blinked. But the worst was Mikhail Yuryevich Zurabov (2009 - 29.07.2016/XNUMX/XNUMX), because simply nothing did not! Enemies give five bags of raisins for such ambassadors.
    1. German Titov
      German Titov 1 November 2017 21: 50 New
      +3
      Enemies give five bags of raisins for such ambassadors.
      And 2 caravans with dope. They did, and did so much.
  6. The leader of the Redskins
    The leader of the Redskins 2 November 2017 09: 45 New
    0
    I still do not understand which of the three options the author is specifically considering. Donbass as a part of Russia, Donbass as a part of Ukraine or Donbass by itself? The third - the most pessimistic - people themselves will not raise all this, no matter how Zakharchenko boasts. Not that economic "fat".
    There are still questions - what to do with those enterprises that were exported to us, to Russia? I read once a list of those. To return? To compensate with money?
    1. The comment was deleted.
      1. The leader of the Redskins
        The leader of the Redskins 2 November 2017 13: 37 New
        0
        List from the Ukrainian side:

        The equipment of such enterprises was exported from the Lugansk region: ZAO Lugansk Engineering Plant named after Parkhomenko, LLC Machine-building plant 100, GP TsKB mechanical engineering Donets, LLC POLI-PAK, Lugansk rolling mill plant, Bryankovsky ore repair plant, Defense plant of the space industry Yunost, Lugansk electric machine-building plant, Lugansk foundry-mechanical plant, Lugansk aircraft repair plant, GP Scientific and Production Roller Combine, CJSC Lugansk Cartridge Plant.
        Also, the LNR militants dismantled the equipment of 11 plants for scrap: Gorizont Mine Rescue Equipment Plant, Vtorchermet Recycling Plant, Chernukhinsky Car Depot OJSC, Lugansk Foundry and Mechanical Plant OJSC, Stakhanov Ferroalloy Plant OJSC, Lugansk Thermotechnical Equipment Plant LLC, Lugansk Automobile Valve Plant Plant rolled metal Prokatservis, OAO Lugcentrokuz im. Monyatovsky Research and Production Center Transmash, LLC Lugansk pipe rolling plant.
        Militants exported 6 plants from the Donetsk region to the Russian Federation: Donbasskabel OJSC, Khartsyzsk Machine-Building Plant, Tochmash Plant OJSC, Topaz State Automobile and Chemical Complex, Snizhnyansky Machine-Building Plant, Nord PJSC.
        The equipment of the plants, according to intelligence, was exported in trucks of the so-called Russian humanitarian convoy. 
        27 февраля группа российских военнослужащих демонтировала и вывезла в Россию оборудование цементного завода из Ясиноватой.
        Partial confirmation from Russian:
        http://www.aif.ru/society/people/1412506
        Satisfied? You can get out of the fog.