News from the Middle East, they flow in an endless stream, allowing them to be interpreted as you please. The most interesting concept is that "Russia surrenders Syria to Erdogan." Putin, under pressure from Ankara, released Tatar "prisoners of conscience" and allowed to occupy the north of Syria. Now he withdraws his troops, leaving a third of the territory to the Kurds. Syria will be divided - the United States won. "Ah, yes," Trump blackmailed the Russian president, threatening to arrest his accounts and property outside of Russia.
Consider successively known facts.
For some reason, none of the so-called "experts" stutters that the mentioned release of the "Majlis" is in fact an exchange for two citizens of Germany and Sweden. The ex-Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, the head of the Nord Stream-2 Supervisory Board led Herr Schröder led the negotiations on their release. As a result, Russia got rid of two parasites and accusations of political persecution of the Crimean Tatars.
At the same time, both pardoned by the decree of the President of Russia repeat the fate of Nadezhda Savchenko. Poroshenko has already accepted them and caressed them, awarded them with orders for something and sent them to the rest of the manual figures of the “Majlis in Exile” to divide posts and a short budget. What no one is happy about there is not enough money and posts too. That is, a gang of political prostitutes, earning on this topic released "strengthen" in the same way as Savchenko-Poroshenko or Tymoshenko.
Berlin, Ankara and Stockholm are grateful to Russia, at the same time Schröder decided questions on the joint venture-2.
About billions in secret contributions will not. Why are they to Vladimir Putin, if he has all of Russia and no one can explain the recognition of the population? Already in the Crimea to his services everything, everything and always.
Now about the rumors that a number of domestic media have been referring to since yesterday’s dinner, with reference to "credible informed sources from the inner circle of Defense Minister Shoigu."
To begin with, it is worth remembering that Russia has already “withdrawn” some of its videoconferencing systems — Bashar al-Assad’s enemies and US friends have since gotten worse. That is, in itself, the "input-output" is nothing more than white noise. Moreover, the goals and objectives in Syria have changed fundamentally.
I mentioned yesterday "Military materials"that it is impossible to solve the combat task in the changed theater without the same tool without losing effectiveness. It’s one thing to free two-thirds of Syria’s territory from the regular (Arabic-specific) army. And it’s quite another to wage a real counterterrorist struggle in the already liberated territory. And this is exactly what Syria will have to go through next year, and God forbid, only in the next one.
For these events, you need no longer assault aviation and not howitzers, MLRS and "Pinocchio", and tribal commandos trained specifically for such terror groups. Those who know the language, professing the same branch of Islam as the local population, do not differ at all in anything. Because, among other things, the local population is very sensitive to this type of database. Importantly, the losses here are an order of magnitude higher than they were at the previous stage. Cleaning up settlements is generally a difficult business in every sense, including "collateral damage."
It makes no sense for Russia to participate in all this. On the contrary, it should distance itself as much as possible, transferring all the formal functions of the Syrian army and other allies.
That is what is happening now. Russia will indeed announce and even begin (during the rout of the jihadists in Idlib) the rotation of a part of the VKS and the withdrawal of the personnel of the ground group. Passing a heavy weapon Syrian army and leaving specialists in maintenance, repair, operation. Of course, a wide range of advisers, and special forces groups, and helicopters, both transport and fire support. This is a few thousand people, even without taking into account the notorious people from the PMCs of Wagner. At the same time, there is no need to talk about any significant reduction in numbers. Rather, it is about adjusting the configuration of groups for new tasks.
But according to the intergovernmental agreements signed the other day between Damascus and Tehran, the 65-I brigade of the special mission of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has already been sent and deployed to Syria. The number of members was not disclosed, but according to open Iranian sources, it can be assumed that this is about 5 thousands of bayonets with all means of reinforcement.
That's just the perfect way to solve problems in new conditions. This is from the IRGC, and not from the Iraqi Security Council, Kurds from Kirkuk fled in panic.
As Brigadier General Ahmad Purdastan reported, the command of the brigade has already assumed the leadership of all the forces of special operations in Syria and “took under its hand” the Iranian (Shiite) formations from Afghanistan and Pakistan. Well, Hezbollah, of course. Until now, nothing like this in Syria.
At the same time, it is necessary to take into account one more moment not hidden by Tehran. The elite of the Iranian army (the IRGC is compared with the GI) take professionals who already have experience of fighting in Kurdistan for at least six months. The 65 Brigade knows, can and is sharpened to fight the Peshmerga and other Kurdish formations. And since the Kurds today control many times more territory than they will leave as a result of future negotiations, Turkey and Iran are ideally suited for clashes. At the same time, the Kurds are well aware that the United States is far away, and these two states will not disappear anywhere and will always be not just next door - millions of Kurds still have some way to live in them.
Such a configuration of coalition forces formed by Russia is the ideal of all possible. As mentioned earlier, this way Russia unties itself as a political leader in the negotiation process. It will not be blamed for the direct destruction of the Kurds, but it is convenient for Russia to mediate and offer bonuses for a reasonable attitude of the Kurdish leadership and the ability to retreat.
Actually, Russia is already doing it. Rosneft has signed a production sharing agreement and will deliver oil from the territories of Iraqi Kurdistan through Turkey to its plants in Germany (more). There are other bonuses ahead, the sizes and recipients of which depend on the correct choice of allies and irreproachable behavior.
Of course, "it was smooth on paper." And the Kurds are far away not united, and each of the allies have enough of their interests. But it has always been the art of the possible.
And sometimes, as Russia has proved in Syria, and the impossible.