"The current rulers believe that planning is evil, the market will put everything in its place"

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"The current rulers believe that planning is evil, the market will put everything in its place"In the State Duma, the budget forecast of the Russian Federation for 2018 year and for the planning period of 2019 and 2020 is in full swing. In parallel with the budget, a forecast of the socio-economic development of the country is also being built.

How can we take the development forecast, if through 3 of the year, in 2020, the number of citizens with incomes below the subsistence minimum will be more than 8 years ago -11,2%? Incomes of the population that have decreased in recent years by 16% will increase by 1-1,5% per year with inflation in 4%. The trouble is that the current rulers still believe that planning is evil, the market will put everything in its place.



We are considering forecasts! That is, the ministries presented to us a picture of complete decline, which no one is going to correct. There are no proposals for economic recovery and social development. The country is projected to roll into the pit.

The forecast is presented in three versions: “bad”, “very bad” and “good for nothing”. The developers seriously believe that the growth in the economy at the bottom of 2,2% per year is a significant increase, and the index of industrial production in 2,5% is an achievement. Meanwhile, the increase in output of, say, machine tools by 2,5% is the release of an additional 160 machine tools to the level of the year 2016. Such "growth" will ensure the release of machines in the amount of 1990 of the year only through 40 years, and tractors - through 960 years. Who is satisfied with such prospects?

At the same time, as the main driver of economic growth, as in the basic version of the Forecast, an accelerated investment growth is considered (on average up to 7% per year), which is pure fiction. Growing private investment is not possible while reducing government investment spending.

Practice shows that the ruble of budget investments accounts for 4-5 rubles of corporate investment, so the projected decrease in budget investments will lead to a slowdown in investment activity in the country. At the same time, the cost of credit resources of Russian banks remains at the level of 2017 of the year.

Innovative business activity shows a negative trend. The share of organizations implementing technological and other innovations has decreased to 9,3%. It is assumed to reduce the organizations performing research and development in the framework of the reorganization of the sphere of science. Under these conditions, no real revival of the economy or industry can be assumed.

In 2017-2018 It is proposed to continue the course of a gradual reduction of the public sector In other words, the tax press will increase due to the budget revenues from former state-owned enterprises. Inflation targeting at the level of 4% per year due to a decrease in the standard of living of the population seems unrealizable. This is primarily due to the increase in prices and tariffs of infrastructure industries.

Thus, gas prices for the period from 2000 to 2015 increased year-by-year by 15 (i.e., 2,5 times higher than inflation), electricity and rail freight rates - by 10 times (1,7 times higher than inflation), water rates and heat supply - in 28 times (in 4,7 times higher than inflation). Change of pricing in these industries is not provided.

In addition, to patch up a hole in the federal treasury, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation intends to raise taxes and collect additional 912 billion rubles. for three years. This amount will certainly dissolve in the prices of domestic products and will be taken out of the pockets of our citizens. The myth of price stabilization remains a myth.

If you look at these indicators in the draft federal budget, then the increase in prices, tariffs and taxes is the entire increase in budget revenues. An increase in the volume of commodity production, as well as import substitution, is not foreseen in the forecast.

Judging by the fact that at present the growth of the Russian economy is lower than the mathematical error, a decrease in allocations for the economy will lead to a prolonged stagnation. In addition, Russia cannot focus on global economic growth. It is calculated from high rates, and the Russian economy is at zero, its growth can be considered significant only in the parameters of 15-20% per year.

The dead-end economic situation, based on divinations of oil prices, and the total indifference of the government in matters of import substitution, became the main cause of the country's chronic budget deficit, which persists for the next three years.

38% of all expenses or 6,3 trillion rubles. will go to the national defense, the police and the maintenance of the state apparatus, while the cost of education and health in the amount will be less than 6 times (1,064 trillion rubles). According to these parameters, Russia is moving in the opposite direction compared to most of the developed countries.

Expenditures on education in 2020 will be lower than 2013 of the year in ruble terms. The volume of allocations for this industry will be indexed almost at the level of inflation. In relation to the volume of GDP of the corresponding year, the share of expenditures of the “Education” section will be 2017 - 2018 in years 0,7%, in 2019 - 2020 - 0,6 percent. The share of education spending in the budgets of OECD countries over the past decade has remained at around 13%, while in Russia it has decreased from 11,8 to 9,9%.

Can not fix this situation and the regions. Despite the deficit of regional budgets and huge debt obligations, financial assistance to them will be reduced from 1,7 trillion rubles. in 2017 year to 1,59 trillion rubles. in 2020 year. Under the condition of continuing inflation, the regions will not be able to provide social guarantees to the citizens of Russia.

So we are backwards, and the ghost of development is becoming more and more like a hopeless backwardness. What kind of forecast for three years presented us with the government? Where, where will Russia be in three years?

The answer to this question is today.
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  1. +5
    26 October 2017 15: 10
    All figures show that we are not developing, but are rolling into the “next” hole. My question is: well, if the financial sector does not manage to do everything right, maybe they don’t know how and it’s time to change them ??? How much can you repeat the same thing for decades?
    1. +11
      26 October 2017 15: 38
      Quote: afrikanez
      maybe they don’t know how and it’s time to change them ???

      Along the way, you need to change not "theirs" but the system itself.
    2. +6
      26 October 2017 16: 25
      Dear afrikanez. Your phrase: "... if the financial sector is unable to do everything as it should ..." - not quite correctly formulated. I explain. For a long time I could not understand why: the Russian economy is developing very slowly ("... Russia's GDP growth this year may reach 1,4-1,5% ..."), but at the same time, the Banks have a large profit. True, not everyone.
      . "... The profit volume of the banking system of Russia in the first quarter of 2017 compared to the same period last year increased 3,1 times ..." And the most interesting "... The bulk of the profit of the banking system of Russia is still generated by banks with state participation ... "How so? If you look at the activities of banks - it is not impressive. There is evidence that -
      1. "... In general, for the first quarter of 2017, bank assets decreased by 1,1% (an increase of 1% with the exception of the effect of currency revaluation), and the total volume of loans to the economy decreased by 2,1% (–0,5% ). The volume of loans to enterprises decreased by 3,1% (–0,9%), and the volume of loans to individuals increased by 0,6% (+0,7%) ... "
      2. "... For the first quarter of 2017, the volume of arrears in the corporate portfolio increased by 10%, and in retail - by 2,8%. The proportion of overdue debt in the first quarter against the backdrop of credit stagnation is growing in the corporate portfolio from 6,3 % to 7,1%, and in retail - from 7,9% to 8,1% ... " The question arises: WHERE IS PROFIT? Everything turned out to be simple. An answer was given to me by V. Katasonov’s article, “How Sberbank and VTB make billions in debt.”
      Excerpts from the article: "... The regions are completely bogged down in debt on loans - both budgetary and commercial. The situation is that about a third (!) Of the region’s own income goes to repay loans .... It's no secret to anyone that the budgets of most constituent entities of the Russian Federation have large and persistent deficits throughout the years of the Russian Federation’s existence. Today, the debt of regional authorities in Russia amounts to 2,2 trillion rubles ... 50 regions have debts exceeding 50% of their own income, 8 subjects of the Federation, the debt turned out to be more than 100% of their income. The main way to cover the deficits of regional budgets - loans. ... There are two types of loans - budget and commercial (or market). The first of them are provided by the Federal Treasury and have an annual interest rate of 0,1. For the second rate is in the range from 14 to 17% per annum. Commercial loans - those that are provided by commercial banks on the basis of a loan agreement .... The main Sberbank is the commercial lender to the regions. Sberbank's share in the total volume of commercial loans issued to the regions is about 75%. In second place in terms of lending to regions is VTB State Bank, its share is estimated at about 15%. The remaining volume of loans falls on the "Agricultural Bank", "Sovcombank" and some others ... ". Read the article by V. Katasonov. You will get a lot of information.
      The answer to your question is "... maybe they don’t know how ...". They all know how. They do everything well.
      1. +2
        26 October 2017 17: 08
        Quote: AA17
        The main commercial lender to the regions is Sberbank

        Just think: the regions depend on the bank! Those. the economy of the whole subject of the Russian Federation (and not one) depends on the bank! The State Bank makes money on the subjects of their own country! What kind of life is this?
    3. +1
      26 October 2017 17: 03
      so the article leads to that, so that the layman has such an idea. everything is so bad, everything is so bad. the reader reads and thinks, since it’s so bad and bad, then you need to change ... because how can you not believe such articles when they are operated on with numbers. slowly, but surely there is a "brainwashing" in the internet. every time I read similar articles, I’m already thinking, well, when will this kapets come. but it doesn’t come, and it doesn’t. but such articles, the country's funeral, are stubbornly appearing.
      1. +4
        26 October 2017 17: 28
        Quote: Yuri789
        every time I read similar articles, I’m already thinking, well, when will this kapets come

        You reminded me of the joke "The end of the world came on the night of December 31, 2015 on January 1, 2016, but you went unnoticed due to a general recession." Look around, kapets, actually around you
        1. 0
          7 November 2017 17: 56
          Kapets? if I am now able to buy a good laptop for my monthly salary, and there will still be money for housing and communal services and other small things. then, what will the state be called when I cannot even buy slippers on my salary?
      2. +3
        26 October 2017 21: 40
        Jury

        Let me explain to you on the fingers that capitalism does not lead to development, but it always leads to decline.

        The slogan of liberal capitalism: "interest in profit, drives the development of society."

        Now let's see how this happens.

        You are an industrialist. Released the product of production - a candle worth $ 1 (cost).
        Send this candle to the market and make a surplus value of 20%, cents. You receive the goods and sell them to resellers, to the speculator. A product is a product of production value, cost plus surplus value. You have made a profit. And they made a turn, money.

        The speculator takes your product and adds a surplus value of 20%. Sells it to the consumer. Makes a second revolution.

        As a result, we received that more than 40% were taken out of consumers' pockets. Money than it should be. And in the following case, consumers will not have money to buy goods.

        The consumer goes to the bank and goes into debt. Money in the bank will end up printing.

        The speculator invests his profits in real estate. Real estate is growing in price.

        So what?

        Debts are growing, development has gone negative.

        Here you have the whole economy.
        1. +7
          26 October 2017 22: 08
          Quote: gladcu2
          Here you have the whole economy

          Two on the political ... sudedend laughing

          Well, it’s necessary to misinterpret everything ... and the words seem to be correct in places ... talent, do not take away request
          1. +2
            26 October 2017 23: 09
            Golovan

            You probably call yourself mister?

            I will notice.

            There are not many gentlemen, but there will be even less.

            (mat). Burst out.
            1. +8
              26 October 2017 23: 12
              Quote: gladcu2
              You probably call yourself mister?

              Brave if you please?
              Quote: gladcu2
              There are not many gentlemen, but there will be even less

              ... it seems true ... belay
              Quote: gladcu2
              Kiss May Tuches

              ABOUT! Monsieur understands a lot about perversions! (with)

              Take care of yourself. I do not serve the poor negative
              1. +1
                26 October 2017 23: 19
                So the worms crawled to the surface

                This kid doesn’t want to live on three salaries, he wants everything.

                He wants to be a master.

                Well then. Let it shake still.
                1. +8
                  27 October 2017 06: 22
                  Well, what can I say?
        2. 0
          26 October 2017 22: 26
          Jury

          You, as a curious person, ask.
          And how should it be?

          Actually, it should be like before the 1960s in the USSR.
          The product of production went into consumption at cost. There was no profit. And the difference in wages does not exceed 3 monthly salaries.

          This was strictly followed by state statistics. And OBKHSS.

          But after they introduced the concept of profitability of production. And surplus products allowed to sell at commercial prices.

          And then the deficit and reincarnation of Capitalism began.

          Which culminated in the fall of the USSR.
          1. +1
            26 October 2017 23: 04
            Jury

            You, as a thinking person, can download:
            - And what to do now, when the Abramovichs do not agree to return to 3 salaries ???; !!!

            And you see what makes a lot of respected GDP ...

            He does not listen to the non-respected citizen Glazyev. Which at every corner yells about lowering bank interest.

            Dear (comrade V. Putin would like to say), the GDP and a very nice head of the Central Bank keep a high rate, which does not allow speculation and leads to zero profit.

            But Vladimir Vladimirovich, knows that money should go into the hands of consumers with an increase in the extraction of natural resources and their industrial processing.

            Therefore, he does the following.

            It enhances competition. Which reduces the profits of bidders.
            He prints money on the value of resources and lays them in social programs. Pensions, maternity capital, free education, medicine.
            He replaced the governors so that these plans would be implemented.

            Here is such a turn in Capitalism in Russia.
    4. MrK
      +2
      26 October 2017 20: 35
      Quote: afrikanez
      How much can one repeat the same thing for decades?

      Quote: afrikanez
      "The current rulers believe that planning is evil, the market will put everything in its place"


      “... STATE PLANNING does not at all mean a transition to socialism. This is just the development of the rules of the game and the definition of goals. This is the coordination of all the components of economic policy, which will replace the current order, when people who pursue only their own selfish interests, try to collect in the dark room something whole from disparate pieces ...
      We cannot make progress until we abandon the ridiculous idea that planning at the national level is an attack on the capitalist system. Because of these fears, we remained the only developed country in the world without industrial policy ... ”- wrote Lido Anthony in 1984. Lido Anthony is a living legend, a successful Ford manager, who then managed to draw the doomed Chrysler out of nothingness, a very valuable witness for us. Practitioner-economist from the core of the capitalist world, who hates the myth of "free trade", on which the WTO was erected. And - a supporter of sound industrial policy.
  2. +2
    26 October 2017 15: 57
    Ivan the Terrible or Stalin! negative
  3. +1
    26 October 2017 18: 13
    When will real economists, and not accountants, be at the helm of our economy ??? Economics is a science, not fortune-telling, you need ideas, you need trivial solutions to problems, you need to work your head, and not count how much is added to your pocket.
    1. +1
      26 October 2017 23: 13
      And do not need economic growth for a show, an economy for people
  4. +3
    26 October 2017 18: 14
    The current authorities catch their fish in troubled waters, the people are of little interest to them, only from the position that they simply bother them .. Their faith is a golden calf. Fetish neoliberalism.
  5. +2
    26 October 2017 19: 37
    Quote: Yuri789
    so the article leads to that, so that the layman has such an idea. everything is so bad, everything is so bad. the reader reads and thinks, since it’s so bad and bad, then you need to change ... because how can you not believe such articles when they are operated on with numbers. slowly, but surely there is a "brainwashing" in the internet. every time I read similar articles, I’m already thinking, well, when will this kapets come. but it doesn’t come, and it doesn’t. but such articles, the country's funeral, are stubbornly appearing.

    Do you even live in Russia? Go out into the street, communicate with friends, friends? What do they say that they are talking about ...? laughing
    1. The comment was deleted.
  6. +5
    26 October 2017 19: 41
    In Kazakhstan, the same rake, the same market ... the government repeats from year to year like mantras ... we have a market ... it will judge everything ... that's it and fall into place ... prices are rising, officials are messing around and the people are silent ... grunts and is silent ... cheap wages, Nazarbayev gave everything to the employer with the new labor code ... he has all the rights, we have the same duties ... handsome ... there are answers to all questions ... gasoline rose in price to blame Russia ... there are few of its refineries, it is necessary to buy from Russia ... the potatoes have risen in price, the Uzbeks are to blame ... they bought everything on the vine ... coal soared in price like a rocket, the weather is plotting ... the cold came early. .. blabbed to the point that the Tengushka fell, blamed the whole people ... because they were waiting for the bastards after the EXPO devaluation? they waited and spread the rumors .... get and sign ... and now they have taken up arms against the Kyrgyz .. they have blocked the borders ... didn’t like it, it means the truth is from Atanbayev ... the thieves are sitting in Astana ... and they are robbing their people ... And the president also called for publicly starting from the new year to raise tariffs for whom services ... they say the pipes are full of holes, the investor does not go to the republic ... the investor does not like when his money flows through holes through the holes ... and what have you been doing for 25 years ? they cut people, but they put money in their pockets ... pensioners working all in the furnace ... in the sense of going home, on vacation ... there is nothing for workers to occupy ... you need to give way to young and creative ... with a 3 category of 30 thousand tenge, with a minimum wage of 21 thousand ... they say the line behind the fence lined up ... they wait ... The market ... the market will put everything in its place ... whoever has a gas pipe and someone who has a hole in it ... although the money doesn't smell .....
  7. +2
    26 October 2017 20: 05
    Quote: afrikanez
    maybe they don’t know how and it’s time to change them ???

    I think that they can, they just do not have enough motivation. Just imagine, each economist on whose actions the standard of living of the population of more than one area depends, wear a collar. The collar is equipped with a glonas sensor, a non-removable structure and explosives that are at least enough to tear off your head. Together with the functionary, all his relatives ring 3 knees up and 3 knees down. They begin work on January 1, the results of work are summed up on December 30. The results are measured in real units of manufactured goods of the agreed quality on the territory of the Russian Federation. In the event of failure to fulfill obligations on December 31, ALL property of a grief official is seized in favor of the state. Collars work simultaneously when trying to remove any or leave the current border of the Russian Federation. Early termination of the contract is possible if there is evidence of intentional embezzlement of state funds, with the subsequent confiscation of TOTAL property and 20 years of labor camps in Siberia without the right to parole.
    That's when we are waiting for the rapid growth of the economy and a beer in Washington for 98 Russian cents.
    1. 0
      26 October 2017 23: 17
      It will be even worse. Really working specialists do not sit in their offices, but in such cases they’ll dump them abroad
      1. +1
        27 October 2017 08: 08
        Just crooks will stop breaking by the TOP FEEDER, the country is full of specialists who are sick for Russia, ready to do their job efficiently and responsibly. I believe that after implementing such an approach as a view, accountants-exporters will die out.
  8. +5
    26 October 2017 20: 31
    As life-nikerta shows, the market does not put in place. At least in our conditions, the market laws of something work in exactly the opposite way. Hence the conclusion, stop already experimenting with the market, you give a planned economy.
    1. 0
      26 October 2017 22: 09
      The USSR had a planned economy - it became a catalyst for its destruction.
      1. +2
        26 October 2017 22: 57
        complete stupidity. then all the foreign capitalists contain huge departments of analysts ... probably just to pay a salary ... the Kosygin reforms became a catalyst.
        1. 0
          27 October 2017 01: 36
          And another catalyst for the collapse of the USSR was a freebie for half the world - and then they were surprised that this is not enough in our stores, like we produce dofig - sausage and tools as an example.
      2. +1
        26 October 2017 23: 19
        Does hell know him? But with the planned, as far as I remember, the money seemed to be there, so what the hell are you going to buy since everything is in the bins of the Motherland. Today, the reverse situation of the goods seems to be full, but there is no money. And why so?
    2. 0
      26 October 2017 23: 19
      The producer on the market seeks to level out competition, and all the same on the market without competition there is no market regulation
  9. +1
    26 October 2017 21: 46
    "Such a" growth "will ensure the release of machine tools in the volume of 1990 only after 40 years, and tractors - after 960 years." And who needs such large volumes of tractors and machine tools now - who will buy them, Russia is not the USSR - does not produce freebies for half the world.
    1. 0
      26 October 2017 23: 01
      nonsense again. then the tractor we have is entirely import, probably from uselessness. Remember, when you buy abroad, money goes there. And not just once, but constantly. Parts and service are always needed. And yes, Russia is not the USSR. she cannot feed herself ...
      1. 0
        27 October 2017 01: 31
        We produce the same tractors and agricultural machinery - and we collect taxes from sales from producers or from imports - now the free market is for anyone who wants what, and buys it, according to the means of efficiency, for every taste. Russia has been feeding itself for several years already - agriculture is the fastest growing sector of the economy.
        1. +2
          27 October 2017 07: 14
          get out of the dusk ... and go to the store. compare the share of imports and our products. and do not flatter yourself about ours - a very large amount is done using imported components. I don’t even say quality — we don’t grow wheat for bread — the main is four feed livestock. and from it bread is now made. The invisible organ of the market ...
          1. 0
            27 October 2017 22: 36
            "Compare the share of imports and our products. And do not flatter yourself about ours - a very large amount is done using imported components." Almost all products that are sold in all stores are made in Russia - including foreign brands.
            1. 0
              27 October 2017 22: 44
              screwdriver assembly is not a production. food products for which all chemistry is purchased abroad is also not its own. take a sausage and read the composition .... breadcrumbs and then without a baking powder and bleach do not. and about the rest of the products generally seams .. hammer commonplace or wrench-made in tea .. the power tool is the same. even if our brand is made in China. so do not build illusions ...
  10. +2
    27 October 2017 00: 13
    Yes, the country is at an impasse. The output within the existing system is not visible. After the 2018 elections, unpopular, or rather anti-people’s measures of the regime are inevitable - increasing the retirement age, tightening the collection of arrears from the population (the bill on the alienation of the only housing of debtors under the cloth before the election), increasing taxes on ordinary citizens (land, civil liability insurance, etc.) despite the fact that a progressive scale is not worth the wait, cuts in funding for medicine, education for the poor, and so on, the war in Syria will continue to devour the country's scarce resources. And all this is fellow citizens, so that our elite would continue to suck juices from a half-dead country and people like a vampire, to saturate their exorbitant womb and ambitions. There is only one way out: scrapping the system, eliminating, completely, the ruling class entirely from power and property, returning to the construction of socialism, tactics and methods are a debatable question ... In general, I want to say down with capitalism, but one problem ... Where is the communist party and leaders ? And where is their support by the people? They are not yet on the horizon. Therefore, we will rot for a long time and endure timelessness ... Until the first economic storm. The real ... And the trouble of Russia, if such a party and leaders do not appear to him. We will be waiting for the significantly degraded Ukrainian version. In the meantime, the frog is slowly boiled ...
    1. 0
      27 October 2017 01: 45
      “Therefore, we will rot and endure timelessness for a long time ...” Those who don’t do anything will sit and hope that the state will do everything for it - each creator of his own happiness and economy in Russia is normal - slowly, but is growing.
      1. +2
        27 October 2017 09: 37
        Correctly. In 1917, sailors with Mausers created their happiness. And with the economy of RI, everything was fine
  11. 0
    27 October 2017 10: 05
    Quote: Vadim237
    “Therefore, we will rot and endure timelessness for a long time ...” Those who don’t do anything will sit and hope that the state will do everything for it - each creator of his own happiness and economy in Russia is normal - slowly, but is growing.

    I’m curious about your age and occupation. wink
    1. 0
      27 October 2017 22: 37
      Why do you need such information?
  12. +2
    27 October 2017 13: 48
    Everything is written correctly. The growth that we have is a gradual degradation. In 90 there was a landslide degradation. Now there is a smooth degradation. The essence has not changed - degradation. Just now we have a "degradation with a human face."
  13. 0
    27 October 2017 23: 02
    Quote: Vadim237
    Why do you need such information?

    Are you shy? laughing
  14. 0
    28 October 2017 06: 30
    I am sure that now I will challenge the anger of hundreds of forum users myself, but I was convinced that the Economy is really Science!
    Science - T.R., A.H.A., T.'.
  15. 0
    30 October 2017 08: 00


    Signature Options: laughing
    1. The invisible hand of the market.
    2. Reformers saw their own plans.
    3. Citizens saw the draft budget.
  16. 0
    30 October 2017 08: 09


    "Economists"and the hand of the market. laughing
    And the people are sleeping. am
  17. 0
    30 October 2017 18: 37
    The worst thing is that these rulers do not care about the country, they do not care about the development of the country, they care about their well-being. For this reason, they engage in verbiage. Already all fools understand that the "policy" of the development of the country's economy over a quarter of a century does not develop in any way, but only degrades. This suggests that either rulers are enemies of the people, yes, enemies of the people, or fools at the level of moron. I’m not sure of the second, if they were even in our infinite society, they would be in psychiatric hospitals, and if they don’t sit there, then the first is true. And it is very dangerous venality of the so-called "elite".
  18. 0
    1 November 2017 23: 33
    And where does the guarantor look? Or he doesn’t read newspapers, or maybe he listens to good reports? This is ridiculous for 0, hell tenths of the growth of the economy over a long period. Government means not that.

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