Military Review

The Russian-Turkish surprise for the US-Kurdish “cauldron”: What problems does Washington want?

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Demanding for Tehran the need to withdraw from Iraq the pro-Iranian military units of the militias and members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who are now opposing ISIL (prohibited in the Russian Federation) and supporting the Iraqi armed forces in an offensive against the Kurdish units in the Mosul and Kirkuk area, and also turning the refugee camp "Rubkan" "(Located near the military base of the SSO and KMP USA At-Tanf) in the many thousands of pseudo-Caliph bridgehead / training complex for the implementation of regular destabilizing activities nosti on the liberated territory of the CAA, the United States completely refuted announced in August a plan to withdraw from the region "immediately after LIH centers of suppression."

The “Rubkan” camp, where several hundred American, British and Israeli military instructors operate, concealed by the contingent in At-Tanf, is simply staked. This is not surprising, because, firstly, the Pentagon never so easily left the regions abundant with deposits of major energy sources (in Syria these are oil fields southeast of Deir-ez-Zor), and secondly, for the current American regime, the loss of even the slightest control over the actions of the Russian and Iranian contingents in the Syrian theater would be like death. As a result, for Trump and his entourage, this will certainly result in a very serious loss of rating to an even lower level than that observed in the spring of 2017.

Such a development of the situation will lower the current US regime “to the level of a curb”, both in the eyes of its pro-republican electorate, and just before the most inveterate “hawks” taking an active part in the political life of the state. Consequently, the US presence in the Syrian Arab Republic will linger for decades, which will be possible only due to the deployment of military units of the KMP and MTR, and in the future, the fighter squadrons of the US Air Force in the territory controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Meanwhile, recently the regional military-political situation around the Syrian theater of operations is changing almost unrecognizably every week, which is preparing for Washington a number of unexpected "surprises" that complicate the stay of the US Armed Forces in Syria, as well as receiving from this stay various military strategic and economic benefits. In the first place, these “surprises” are caused by a clash of state ambitions with the interests of Ankara and Tehran, which were clearly marked in the last two weeks.

Despite continuing concerns about the future plans of the Turkish leadership to operate in Syria, which (by secret agreement with the Pentagon) may well include the division of the main assault "backbone" of the CAA into 2 weakened groups in the eastern and western parts of the republic in order to redistribute the territory of the SAR with the United States, the latest statements by Turkish President Recep Erdogan, which put all the American and European media on their ears, only indicate that the 29 of September of the 2017 of his meetings took place on September and with Vladimir Putin did not pass to no avail. In particular, at the Islamic G8 (D-8) summit consisting of Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia and Bangladesh, the head of Turkey criticized the administration of the US President for constant pressure on countries seeking to increase their defense capability development of nuclear missile potential. Thus, Tehran and Pyongyang were supported in just one speech.

Immediately after this, Erdogan did not miss the opportunity to accuse the Washington-backed Kurdish YPG / YPJ detachments of raising the portrait of the famous Kurdish military and political figure Abdullah Ojalan, considered a terrorist in Turkey and serving life imprisonment on the Turkish island of Imrali, above the central Raqq Square. It is also known that the command of the armed forces of Turkey sent armored units to the Idlib and Aleppo governorates in order to block the probable “breakthrough” by the Kurds of the Manbidge-Azaz tactical corridor, which allows the north-western YPG / SDF enclave (Afrin neighborhood) to unite with the main group near Manbija

This suggests that even in the distant future, the Kurdish formations supported by the Americans will not get the slightest opportunity to break through a new “corridor” in the south-west direction with the final exit to the Mediterranean coast of Syria in the province of Latakia. Moreover, in addition to regular Turkish army units, limiting access of Kurdish units to the Mediterranean coast will provide tactical units supported by tactical aviation Russian aerospace forces with Avb Khmeimim and ships of the Russian Navy and Turkish Navy deployed several tens of kilometers from the city of Ras al-Basit. What does this mean for Washington?

All American military facilities built on the territory of Syrian Kurdistan (including radar systems, electronic intelligence complexes, EW facilities, airbases, training camps, etc.), as well as fuel and energy complex facilities mercilessly pumping energy from the depths of the new victim’s deposits, not will be able to receive material and technical support in a timely manner by means of heavy transport docks with the efficiency that is observed today in our contingent due to the presence of powerful of E & P Tartus. Considering that no transit operations (especially for the transfer of military equipment) to pro-American Kurdistan through the territory controlled by the CAA, and even more so the Syrian-Turkish border, can by definition, a small air base in the northern part of Hassek province (Rumeilan) can become a saving straw of the American contingent , where in March of this year a large unit of the US Marine Corps was deployed. At this point we will stop in more detail.

As it has long been known, the era of IG fed up by Tel Aviv and Washington is rapidly coming to an end. The offensive "fist" of the Syrian Arab Army, acting along the western coast of the Euphrates, slowly but surely advances southward from Meyadin (towards the Syrian-Iraqi border), moving the western grouping of the pseudo-caliphate away from the Euphrates. Towards this grouping from the city of Khumaimah in the northeast operational direction comes the CAA group, which at one time gained control over the Syrian-Iraqi border east of At-Tanfa. When the latter meets with the “Meiadi fist”, the ISIS’s western enclave will end up in the “cauldron”, after which it will remain to suppress the terrorist centers on the eastern bank of the Euphrates near Abu Hamam and Abu Kemal. If we assume that a long-term de-escalation scenario will follow after that, where the Kurdish SDF units and the AOI will not attempt to attack the liberated CAA territory, the situation in the Syrian theater theater will stabilize, and the parties will begin substantial work to increase the combat potential before the next stage conflict, which will be based solely on territorial ambitions of the parties.

During this de-escalation period, the Syrian Democratic Forces (VTS) with their American supervisors will come up with “fun” times: they will feel all the delights of being in a “half-weaver”. Firstly, the aforementioned Rumeilan airfield will not be able to receive military transport planes with large weight and size parameters than the C-130J / H “Hercules”, due to the length of the runway in 1320 m. Consequently, there will be serious restrictions on the cargo delivered: Maximum weight - 21800 kg, dimensions 12,15 x 3,05 x 2,65 m. Operational transfer of cargo such as M142 high-precision HMARS MLRS missiles will not be realized until the runway web is further increased by 1060 meters in order to be able to take off and land ategicheskih military transport aircraft C-17 «Globmaster-III». Moreover, after the extirpation of ISIS in the Syrian theater of operations, the Syrian Air Force Command, together with our videoconferencing forces, can legitimately declare the establishment of an A2 / AD restriction and prohibition zone in the airspace of the republic. From this point on, the coalition’s unpunished tactical aviation strikes at CAA targets with the main argument “Alas, missed!” Will end, exactly like the flights of American military transport aviation to Hassek through the central provinces of Syria will become impossible.

One of the most accessible "loopholes" of the delivery of weapons and modern equipment for the oil industry in Syrian Kurdistan will be the Syrian-Iraqi air border, or the Mosul-Rumeilan highway; but again: in comparison with the sea routes inaccessible to the Kurds and the Americans, the volume of air and land supplies will simply be negligible. More precisely, it will be possible to predict the situation with the US presence in the Middle East only after the first noticeable results from the Memorandum on the Further Development of Coordination and Military Technology signed by the Chiefs of Staff of the Armed Forces of Syria and Iran, the main point of which was countering terrorism and the US-Israel plans in the Middle East .

Information sources:
http://aa.com.tr/ru/
http://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/2637060
http://www.airwar.ru/enc/craft/c130.html
http://www.airwar.ru/enc/craft/c17.html
https://riafan.ru/989374-terroristy-v-sirii-prokhodyat-obuchenie-na-voennoi-baze-ssha-smi
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32 comments
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  1. The comment was deleted.
  2. siberalt
    siberalt 25 October 2017 07: 12 New
    +4
    Taki, "mess" or a mess in education?
    1. novobranets
      novobranets 25 October 2017 13: 35 New
      +1
      Quote: siberalt
      Taki, "mess" or mess

      A bond or an ablation? laughing Where the Grosstrokes are tied up, making some sort of long-term forecasts is somewhat unrealistic. You never know what will hit him in the head, but more often "yellow water" hits him in the head. The only thing he is stable in is hostility to the Kurds, as a well-known character from your nickname used to say: "... listen, he says, I have a dislike for him, I can’t eat already."
  3. Zebus
    Zebus 25 October 2017 08: 06 New
    +1
    Quote: siberalt
    Taki, "mess" or a mess in education?

    It looks like a mess, or maybe a typo! wassat
    1. lewerlin53rus
      lewerlin53rus 25 October 2017 12: 23 New
      +4
      Quote: Zebus
      Quote: siberalt
      Taki, "mess" or a mess in education?

      It looks like a mess, or maybe a typo! wassat

      Write "curb" - and everything is in order! wink
    2. siberalt
      siberalt 25 October 2017 13: 54 New
      +3
      Typos are excusable in forum posts. But a palm-sized article could be subtracted for the sake of respect for readers. hi There is not enough "drag" - stretch the text through the machine in the "Word". Why is that complicated?
    3. Alikos
      Alikos 25 October 2017 14: 45 New
      +3
      Quote: Zebus
      Quote: siberalt
      Taki, "mess" or a mess in education?

      It looks like a mess, or maybe a typo! wassat

      Explicitly a tablet. They live their own lives ahead of the owner during typing))
  4. Galleon
    Galleon 25 October 2017 08: 11 New
    +7
    The United States has more than 300 S-130s in service. If desired, they can create traffic at that air base, as in Domodedovo. So the argument about semi-boiler and poor supply, in my opinion, does not seem obvious.
    1. Monarchist
      Monarchist 25 October 2017 08: 26 New
      +1
      Kamrad Galeon, I agree: the Americans can successfully supply $ 1 with $ 0.
  5. Monarchist
    Monarchist 25 October 2017 08: 35 New
    +2
    Forgive me, but Damantsev has too bright dreams: he put “shaggy” and Kurds into the “cauldron”. And how much is there if: 1) increasing the runway to amers is not a problem. 2) it’s easier to supply them by air, remember how many bases have, and for us by sea longer.
    1. ver_
      ver_ 26 October 2017 12: 56 New
      0
      ... Turks, Kurds - chi a donkey in the balls for mattresses ...- * joys * -full pants ...
  6. EVIL
    EVIL 25 October 2017 10: 12 New
    +9
    Most importantly, the Turks are not allies to us, but only temporary partners. It must be clearly understood. Erdogan has already shown himself in all its glory - we will not forget our pilots.
    And under the amer Turks will fall as soon as they see the power - instantly.
  7. Bashibuzuk
    Bashibuzuk 25 October 2017 10: 40 New
    +5
    Where are some surprises, where are some problems - for some reason, I did not understand at all.
    Based on this logic, it can be stated that Israel has one and only problems with surprises around. And they take, and without hesitation, hollow this Syrian Arab army when they want and where they want.
    Also, the Americans - oh, oh, they will not be able to provide their deployed systems. Please note - electronic systems. Due to the fact that, say, the northern group of Syrian legions is slowly creeping into a bow with the southern group of the Syrian legion army ... Oh, I'm sorry, I was mistaken. There are not legions, there are fronts ... in the amount of a marching platoon, or company. Right now, two fronts are surrounded by "bearded-succumbed, and Americans along with them. True, they are only surrounded by a half ring. Or maybe a quarter by a ring. Or not at all.
    And I immediately have a question - if the Americans, as usual, saturate their structures with electronic gadgets - THEN .... why are these same "legions" crawling there like some living creatures in a certain place. And why not “give” to our most valiant CAA fighter our usual electronic warfare and suppression systems. Well, how to give. Hedgehog it’s clear that there our radio reconnaissance and interception arranged such a training ground for themselves - Mama Do not Cry. And it will be necessary - they will clog all the American RES in such a way that there will be nowhere for corn to go, not like the Hercules. And we, instead, continue to hammer rockets through the desert with all the dope. Beauty, damn it.
    So, of course there will be surprises. For example, a surprise at the UN yesterday was revealed.
    But only for us. With the Syrians.
    A. by no means, not for Americans.
    Cassandra, damn, experts.
  8. Captain Nemo
    Captain Nemo 25 October 2017 11: 03 New
    +2
    Erdogan cannot be trusted. And to build calculations from his outlook this morning is stupid. Tomorrow will forget about all the agreements and begin to be friends with the new "partner"
  9. den3080
    den3080 25 October 2017 11: 35 New
    0
    armored units in governorates

    the word was amusing, it means spiders, mosquitoes, fleas winked wink
  10. staviator
    staviator 25 October 2017 11: 44 New
    0
    Quote: siberalt
    Taki, "mess" or a mess in education?

    Border, and the mess in education is not with him
    1. siberalt
      siberalt 25 October 2017 14: 55 New
      +1
      Well, if the "border", then - "brothel"! laughing I mean, the reader to whom you are contacting must first be respected. And the content of the article is quite normal and the thoughts are correct.hi
      1. staviator
        staviator 25 October 2017 15: 30 New
        0
        I wonder why he did not respect the reader.
  11. Mikhail Zubkov
    Mikhail Zubkov 25 October 2017 12: 04 New
    0
    Who will mine all the roads to the amers ?! Wild tribes or pros?
  12. Lis_96
    Lis_96 25 October 2017 12: 36 New
    0
    The time has come to put project status 6 into action and forget that there was such a state as the USA.
  13. zenion
    zenion 25 October 2017 13: 49 New
    +1
    The Americans are doing everything to keep the war in the Middle East going. And the six of the USA support it.
    1. without reverse
      without reverse 25 October 2017 18: 19 New
      +5
      Schaub, I lived like that. Are you sure a Jew ?? yes, or ??))
  14. kriten
    kriten 25 October 2017 13: 52 New
    +2
    The article convincingly proves that while the NATO Command is leading the whole process and apparently with the full, but tacit, consent of our military. The coalition forces in Syria are the same aggressor as ISIS, and could be warned that if they do not leave the territory of Syria, they will be taken against them. We could already close the airspace of Syria to coalition forces, as accomplices of terrorists.
    1. Noun2006
      Noun2006 25 October 2017 18: 05 New
      +1
      In response, the Americans will say about the Crimea
      The Russian armed forces will be warned that if they do not leave the territory of Crimea, measures will be taken against them against expulsion.
    2. Akuzenka
      Akuzenka 27 October 2017 11: 43 New
      0
      If you follow the news - warned.
  15. Natalia777
    Natalia777 25 October 2017 14: 18 New
    +4
    I can already hear the crunch of the vertebrae of a liquid-American hybrid monster. Let him die in agony!
    1. The comment was deleted.
  16. Black sniper
    Black sniper 25 October 2017 14: 29 New
    0
    The boiler, the boiler ... Hahaha ;-) richer in thought!
  17. Vladimir SHajkin
    Vladimir SHajkin 25 October 2017 16: 27 New
    +1
    I personally suspect that ours would have acted more intensively in the environment of ISIS (it is prohibited in the Russian Federation), but they will let Trump save face. At the moment, this is more important.
    1. Captain Pushkin
      Captain Pushkin 28 October 2017 14: 06 New
      0
      Quote: Shaikin Vladimir

      1
      Shaikin Vladimir October 25, 2017 16:27
      I personally suspect that ours would have acted more intensively in the environment of ISIS (it is prohibited in the Russian Federation), but they will let Trump save face. At the moment, this is more important.

      Well, we have no other worries left besides caring for Trump's face! Not even funny.
  18. SCHWERIN
    SCHWERIN 25 October 2017 21: 42 New
    +1
    Maybe in the subject, or maybe not. Today I watched the blockbuster "Geoshtorm" Hollywood. The plot is brief. Global warming has brought climate problems to earthlings. And the staff created a space group to save the world from weather anomalies. But! the villain in the White House promised the programmer MONEY and he infected the system. As a result of this, a mass of people perished on earth. BUT! an American hero with a team saves the Earth from a total catastrophe. Those. at first they themselves destroyed the half of the world, and then they themselves saved the rest of them! Doesn't it look like Afghanistan, Syria, etc.
  19. Alexander Mage
    Alexander Mage 26 October 2017 08: 56 New
    0
    Slows down Vovan Vovanych a heel. Still, probably hoping to make friends with Trump. Just a little bit.
    1. turbris
      turbris 27 October 2017 11: 18 New
      0
      There is a big geopolitical game and whoever wins in it will get a lot, so compromise decisions will most likely be made.