Military Review

New "predator" in the Russian economic fauna: low inflation

85
What is good and what is bad? In relation to the Russian economy. As it turns out, the current economists, like a crumb from a poem by Vladimir Mayakovsky, do not know the answer to this question. At least, they are confused in their own assessments of what is happening with the Russian economy.


In order.

Literally, every economic official of any (and especially - federal) level, one of the main problems with the lack of prospects for substantial growth of the Russian economy called excessively high inflation. The reasoning looked quite sensible: high inflation - high interest on bank loans - the impossibility for companies to get a plus, provided that they needed to repay loans for draconian interest - weak growth, or even a decline in the country's economy. In fact, at any major economic forum, the thesis was expressed that we would, they say, reduce inflation to the level of relatively developed countries - a percentage so 2-3, well, no more than 4-s, per year, and this will revitalize the lending sphere, which means , will give impetus to entrepreneurship, which in turn will spur on the steady growth of Russia's GDP.

New "predator" in the Russian economic fauna: low inflation


And here, it would seem, the officials from the economy should celebrate the victory. Indeed, it was possible to arrive at those inflation indicators (at least as reports indicate), which are similar to the mentioned target values. This is what the inflation dynamics in our country look like according to Rosstat for the last 7 years: 2010 year - 8,78%, 2011 - 6,1%, 2012 - 6,58%, 2013 - 6,45%, 2014 - 11,36%, 2015 - 12,9 . The forecast for the current year is up to 2016%. Today (when recalculated for annual value) inflation is about 5,4%. Victory. Achieved "what they have long dreamed of." Champagne in the studio? ..

But why are the faces of the Russian economic "gurus" sad again? Not just sad, but even obviously tense, so much so that the muscles from the tension tremble.

At the forum “Russia is calling!”, Which is taking place these days in our country, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov suddenly announced that a slowdown in inflation may turn out to be almost a poison for the Russian economy. According to the chief financier of Russia, “the sharp slowdown in inflation that is observed today can create risks for Russian companies, primarily for financial companies.”

True, Siluanov immediately added that the slowdown in price growth cannot be considered solely as a threat to the Russian economy. Low inflation, which needs to be “closely watched," according to the head of the Ministry of Finance, provides new opportunities for lowering interest rates and attracting capital and resources.

Next, the baton of comments about low inflation rates from Anton Siluanov was intercepted by the head of VTB Andrei Kostin. According to him, "concern with the process is growing."

From the statement of the head of one of the largest banks in Russia, Andrei Kostin:
Today we are talking about 3% inflation. And even we (why “even”? - author's note) see concern, and if inflation is not falling too fast and, in general, how Russia will live, how such low inflation rates will affect our economic development. This is absolutely atypical for the Russian economy.


In general, another incident for domestic economic experts. And the essence of this "incident", in fact, is clear. The reason for such statements of "concern" lies in the interests of the country's banking sector.

The situation for this sector, as Kostin reported, is really atypical. After all, some Russian banks fed on “fats” solely due to the fact that they operated (and continue to do so) with truly astronomical interest on loans for both ordinary people and the business sector. When a loan to a “brotherly power” is issued for an amazing 0,3-0,5% per annum (with almost 100% doubtful in the final payments), the interest on the loan, for example, for small businesses in the country is still extremely rare below 13- 14% per year.

And here there is a decrease in inflation rates, which means a decrease in the Central Bank’s key rate, and ultimately, as a result, the need to reduce the rates on loans to banks. Again, banks began to receive a stream of mortgage holders, car loans and other citizens who solve their financial problems using bank loan offers.

And the bankers have figured: yes, this is a “guard!” - with such inflationary indicators, you will have to lower credit rates even lower, and therefore receive not the profits that are used to receive in the banking sector at “mowing” phenomenal interest. Immediately, what good, bankers will really have to work ... But how to work. It’s not easy to play a simple interest game about who pushes the loan rates even higher and still does not lose customers. And to think about where to invest.

Far from all representatives of the banking community are ready to invest in the real sector. And why should they? .. After all, there the average time to profit is rarely less than 10-12 years. And our bankers are not used to such long expectations. Give them here and now. Well, a maximum of a year and a half or two. Profit, profit, profit, profit ... And therefore investment in engineering, metallurgy, real innovative projects - this is still more and more isolated cases for banks. Where more often - speculation, stocks, currency exchange, loans from each other, etc.

That is why bankers and still fall into a quiet panic. How wonderful it was for banks to live at an inflation rate well, at least in 8% ... You could famously lift the real credit ceiling under 30-35% per annum. And now the question has arisen: “what to do?” Are the fat years for those who cut profit by draconian percentages in Russia, coming to an end? And the answer to this question we all will know very soon. If suddenly bankers decide that they don’t want to move away from the usual pattern of work in the country, and they don’t want to learn to work in the new conditions either, they will finally declare low inflation in Russia “the enemy of the people” and again, even if artificially, drag inflation bar up. To encourage people not to heal suddenly and so that small business does not decide that the bulk of the profits can be allowed not for repayment of loans, but for further development ...

Or, everything will be even simpler: the recognition that, they say, was "short of money", and our inflation is still not 3% ...
Author:
Photos used:
http://www.globallookpress.com
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  1. 210ox
    210ox 25 October 2017 06: 53 New
    19
    The poison for the economy is a liberal government. It resembles a planning meeting on a collective farm .. "We have a disaster! A high yield!"
    1. Comrade Schucher
      Comrade Schucher 28 October 2017 15: 47 New
      0
      There is no happiness at all, choose one ...
      If it is good for the population (people) - it will be shitty for the banks.
      If nishtyak banks - then the people to hell all over the face.
      And so, as the Dofig people, and there are few banks, the happiness will go to the "little ones".
    2. stas
      stas 28 October 2017 15: 49 New
      +2
      Our LADY government lives in its own world, the rest of the inhabitants in another.
      While their task will be only profit, preferably in their own pocket, the people will live stably in a semi-poverty state.
      Their market flea market is economic fascism against their people.
      1. gladcu2
        gladcu2 1 November 2017 13: 20 New
        0
        Here it turns out interestingly.

        A high percentage is the lack of sales of banking products. And a slowdown in speculation. What is just oil for the economy. Stable economic development and the contribution of money to production. Slowly but surely.

        Low percentage.
        This is a temporary acceleration of the economy, and then a huge debt bubble, as in the United States. And an irrevocable situation.

        So which is better?
  2. Sergey-svs
    Sergey-svs 25 October 2017 07: 03 New
    15
    All Russian so-called economic "luminaries": Siluanovs, Ulyukaevs, Kudrins, Nabiulins, etc. - they’re carrying nonsense, they’re used to unpunished “economical noodles” hanging on the ears of the population and there’s nothing to answer for! negative There is even a joke about all these pitiful economists: - Columbus was the first economist. When he went to discover America, he did not know where he was going. When he reached it, he did not know where he was. And he did all this with government funds. lol
    1. Stas157
      Stas157 25 October 2017 08: 56 New
      +9
      Quote: 210ox
      The poison for the economy is a liberal government.

      Quote: Sergey-svs
      : Siluanovs, Ulyukaevs, Kudrins, Nabiulins, etc. - they carry complete nonsense:

      Here's how to open his eyes to Putin? He is an intelligent man! Doesn’t he understand what these figures will lead the country to?
      1. FID
        FID 25 October 2017 09: 04 New
        21
        Quote: Stas157
        Here's how to open his eyes to Putin?

        Is he blind? Or receives dividends?
        1. Stas157
          Stas157 25 October 2017 09: 34 New
          +8
          Quote: SSI
          Is he blind?

          What if she really doesn’t understand where the government is leading! They convinced Putin to cancel deoffshorization. After all, the president proposes to do the right thing, and the government convinces the opposite!
          Maybe he's just kind and compliant?
          1. FID
            FID 25 October 2017 09: 39 New
            12
            Quote: Stas157
            What if she really doesn’t understand where the government is leading! They convinced Putin to cancel deoffshorization. After all, the president proposes to do the right thing, and the government convinces the opposite!

            So what? He proposed the theses in May ... Further, what? He is on his own, and the government is on his own ... And why is all this necessary? After all, the people are Poverty, while all these right things are being offered ...
            1. yehat
              yehat 27 October 2017 17: 53 New
              +1
              Well, people can and are impoverished, but our leaders are storming the Forbes list no less actively.
          2. CONTROL
            CONTROL 26 October 2017 08: 15 New
            +5
            Quote: Stas157
            They convinced Putin to cancel deoffshorization. After all, the president proposes to do the right thing, and the government convinces the opposite!
            Maybe he's just kind and compliant?

            Nobody convinced him of anything!
            Putin has been demanding deoffshorization since 2013: - give me a program, report ... how much has been "deoffshorized and dispossessed" ... Well, they have sluggishly reported on "events" ... And now they have made a clear statement - the government !!! To the president !!!! - and you would go on ... with your deoffshorization! Even without really arguing - they sent it all! ... President's message to the government - and: "message" by the president’s government ...
            ...Who is the head in this house? here is the question ...
        2. Vasilenko Vladimir
          Vasilenko Vladimir 25 October 2017 13: 23 New
          +2
          Quote: SSI
          Is he blind?

          and on the papers that bring him everything is beautiful
      2. Bastinda
        Bastinda 25 October 2017 09: 20 New
        +8
        laughing Can send walkers to the capital? With petition? fellow
        1. serriy
          serriy 25 October 2017 10: 55 New
          10
          Quote: Bastinda
          Can send walkers to the capital? With petition?

          !!! hi Religious procession arrange !!! From Vladivostok.good
          Good king. He just does not know.))) laughing
        2. stas
          stas 28 October 2017 15: 53 New
          0
          You can’t get together in Moscow for more than two, the guardsmen are ready to explain that there is nothing for the tsar to ask stupid questions.
      3. kapitan92
        kapitan92 25 October 2017 10: 22 New
        12
        Quote: Stas157
        Here's how to open his eyes to Putin? He is an intelligent man! Doesn’t he understand what these figures will lead the country to?

        Well yes! "Tsar Father" is good, but they do not report to him. laughing “The retinue makes the king,” the great Italian thinker Machiavelli once said, and history has repeatedly proved him right. hi
        1. Vasilenko Vladimir
          Vasilenko Vladimir 25 October 2017 13: 23 New
          +1
          Quote: kapitan92
          Well yes! "Tsar Father" is good, but they do not report to him.

          laughing in vain but often just like that
          1. E_V_N
            E_V_N 25 October 2017 14: 39 New
            +7
            Quote: Vasilenko Vladimir
            Quote: kapitan92
            Well yes! "Tsar Father" is good, but they do not report to him.

            laughing in vain but often just like that

            Exactly, GDP has the Internet specially made for him, newspapers for him are printed in one copy, and special issues of GDP are TV.
            1. weksha50
              weksha50 25 October 2017 17: 07 New
              +2
              Quote: E_V_N
              Exactly, GDP has the Internet specially made for him, newspapers for him are printed in one copy, and special issues of GDP are TV.


              Um ... Does he have time for Tyrnet and newspapers? Yes, and watch Dur-TV ...
              This is DAMA's time for everything ... except for patching holes in the budget ...
              1. E_V_N
                E_V_N 25 October 2017 22: 26 New
                +2
                Quote: weksha50
                Quote: E_V_N
                Exactly, GDP has the Internet specially made for him, newspapers for him are printed in one copy, and special issues of GDP are TV.


                Um ... Does he have time for Tyrnet and newspapers? Yes, and watch Dur-TV ...
                This is DAMA's time for everything ... except for patching holes in the budget ...

                I forgot, of course, the "slave in the gallery" the Internet, newspapers and TV are not allowed. He does not spare himself, he is rowing, he is thinking about Russia.
                1. Vasilenko Vladimir
                  Vasilenko Vladimir 26 October 2017 08: 21 New
                  +1
                  Quote: E_V_N
                  slave gallery "Internet, newspapers and TV

                  stupid joke
                  1. E_V_N
                    E_V_N 26 October 2017 23: 16 New
                    +1
                    Quote: Vasilenko Vladimir
                    Quote: E_V_N
                    slave gallery "Internet, newspapers and TV

                    stupid joke

                    And what's the joke? Not me, the GDP called itself a slave to the galley.
                    1. Vasilenko Vladimir
                      Vasilenko Vladimir 27 October 2017 18: 44 New
                      0
                      you understand what I mean and this is not about the "slave"
                      By the way I’m not sure that YOU want to change places with GDP
                      1. stas
                        stas 28 October 2017 16: 03 New
                        +2
                        Well, you licked to shine.
                        And I am more than sure that in Russia there are a sufficient number of people who would put things in order in Russia with the economy.
                        But the king is the successor of EBN, and fulfills his obligations to the oligarchs. Ask Chubais, he is not offended.
            2. Vasilenko Vladimir
              Vasilenko Vladimir 25 October 2017 17: 53 New
              +3
              Quote: E_V_N
              Exactly, GDP has the Internet specially made for him, newspapers for him are printed in one copy, and special issues of GDP are TV.

              you will be surprised but something like this is
              excerpts and articles are being prepared for him, or do you really think that our GDP is sitting over a cup of tea and is watching the whole press in a row
              1. 34 region
                34 region 25 October 2017 18: 20 New
                +1
                17.53. Vasilenko! At the initial stage of his work, Putin was already asked such a question. Then it was. They wrote him news on the disc and he watched them in his free time. But watching all TV programs is certainly not realistic, as well as reading the entire press. There is no time for this and there is no point. Recently, he was again asked a similar question. Type that Putin looks in the internet. To which Putin replied that the Internet is an informational wash where there is little truth. And information is provided to him specially sorted by specially trained people. And Putin is right in this matter. hi
                1. Vasilenko Vladimir
                  Vasilenko Vladimir 25 October 2017 18: 30 New
                  +2
                  I already wrote about a joke from life
                  I called our Ministry of Agriculture there was a question about goat milk, and in the department I contacted, they made big cow eyes, they don’t have any reports on the papers that come from the areas in our goats, they get such papers on the basis of these, they make their own and so on .d.
              2. E_V_N
                E_V_N 25 October 2017 22: 30 New
                +2
                Quote: Vasilenko Vladimir
                Quote: E_V_N
                Exactly, GDP has the Internet specially made for him, newspapers for him are printed in one copy, and special issues of GDP are TV.

                you will be surprised but something like this is
                excerpts and articles are being prepared for him, or do you really think that our GDP is sitting over a cup of tea and is watching the whole press in a row

                Don't you think that the KGB colonel, a resident of foreign intelligence, is specially trained, knows how to get real data and knows how to do it?
                1. Vasilenko Vladimir
                  Vasilenko Vladimir 26 October 2017 08: 20 New
                  0
                  Have you ever thought about skill, but about real possibilities? !!
                  By the way, what do you think, why does he need annual “meetings” and direct Internet calls? !!
                  1. E_V_N
                    E_V_N 26 October 2017 23: 27 New
                    +1
                    Quote: Vasilenko Vladimir
                    Have you ever thought about skill, but about real possibilities? !!
                    By the way, what do you think, why does he need annual “meetings” and direct Internet calls? !!

                    It's funny, according to your GDP, it can extract information, but it is not given access to information, the Internet and TV? I think the question is not access, but the desire to receive this information.
                    Unfortunately, the annual "direct lines" are a performance like a show on TV. Of the millions of questions sent and thousands of microphones on the street with random citizens, dozens of questions and addresses are specially selected, isn’t that so? Because there are questions about the health of dogs GDP, and requests to give the puppy. By the way, we noticed by what cordons “ordinary random citizens” are surrounded by these very microphones and how smoothly their speech flows without stuttering and words of parasites.
                    1. Vasilenko Vladimir
                      Vasilenko Vladimir 27 October 2017 18: 50 New
                      0
                      Quote: E_V_N
                      It's funny, according to your GDP, it can extract information, but it is not given access to information, the Internet and TV?

                      well laugh, just funny
                      the question is, is there time? !!
                      he was given a selection of articles, a selection of videos
                      Quote: E_V_N
                      Of the millions of questions sent and thousands of microphones on the street with random citizens, dozens of questions and addresses are specially selected, isn’t that so?

                      NOT SO voiced by a dozen and if you do not understand this, do not meddle in discussions
                      there is a question for GDP, please visit the site and they will answer you in writing within two weeks
                      when we had problems, we turned and helped us, so leave these stupid jokes for the same slow-thinking as you yourself
                      Quote: E_V_N
                      By the way, they noticed by what cordons “ordinary random citizens” are surrounded by these very microphones and how smoothly their speech flows without stuttering and parasite words.

                      http://letters.kremlin.ru/
                      this is for you if brains are enough only to hang in the forums, and not use normally
                      1. E_V_N
                        E_V_N 28 October 2017 00: 44 New
                        0
                        Quote: Vasilenko Vladimir
                        the question is, is there time? !!
                        he was given a selection of articles, a selection of videos

                        In your opinion, does the GDP have no time for the real state of things? Is it enough for him that he was given in the selection? Do not you think that the dosed information (selection) is a direct manipulation by the president? If you personally have enough news on channel 1 to understand what is happening in the world, this is your right. Just do not need GDP and the rest in their level to measure.

                        Quote: Vasilenko Vladimir
                        there is a question for GDP, please visit the site and they will answer you in writing within two weeks

                        Who will answer? personally GDP or those who are preparing him a selection of news and videos? You know, in my life I have seen enough answers from officials of various stripes and levels, I'm fed up.


                        Quote: Vasilenko Vladimir

                        this is for you if brains are enough only to hang in the forums, and not use normally

                        You do not worry about my brains, take care of your own. Judging by the fact that you are here on the forum, the general is that you hang on the forums.
      4. 34 region
        34 region 25 October 2017 10: 31 New
        +7
        08.56. Stas! Putin is not a stupid person. But he has his own religion. The religion of the free market, which will remove all problems with an invisible hand. He believes that all problems from state participation in the economy. He considers public administration not effective. Although he himself rules the country and puts the staff. But he himself considers his activity ineffective. But private management is also not a standard of organization and efficiency. But for some reason, it does not see bankruptcies of a private business and financial injections into this private business. And stubbornly offers to discard everything to this private business that is constantly going bankrupt. It turns out that he himself cannot organize effective activity, and the oligarchs cannot. But he is not able to renounce his religion. Nationalization also can not. There are no normal managers and how will he carry out the seizure of private property? By buying bankrupt companies? But state-owned companies are also managed by the same sages as private ones. But he is sure that private traders are better! Again, the question of Faith-Religion arises. It turns out a vicious circle or life with a squirrel running in a wheel. hi
        1. Stas157
          Stas157 25 October 2017 10: 49 New
          +8
          Quote: 34 region
          It turns out that he himself cannot organize effective activity, and the oligarchs cannot. But he is not able to renounce his religion.

          I must admit that Putin is a fairly persistent person and knows how to bring his plan to the end. But, with regard to the interests of the elite, the inner circle, he is completely loyal to them. Every year since 2013, it has been proposed to carry out a deoffshorization and puts it off all the time, despite the complete detriment of this for the country's economy. And all this for the sake of the overweight Kremlin elite. Indeed, the president cannot organize effective activity if it goes against the interests of the oligarchs and bureaucrats.
          1. weksha50
            weksha50 25 October 2017 17: 19 New
            +2
            Quote: Stas157
            And all this for the sake of fattening Kremlin elite.


            "Kremlin elite" is a drop in the fat sea ...
            "the president cannot organize effective activity if it goes against the interests of oligarchs and bureaucrats"...

            That’s the essence of the matter ... And we say that we have discouraged oligarchs from the feeder ... They just don’t directly control the state, they don’t sit on the throne and grab the scepter ... But their conditions dictate ...
        2. turbris
          turbris 25 October 2017 15: 46 New
          0
          34 region, you talk so confidently about what Putin believes and does, that it is already scary, but what if it is your relative!
        3. weksha50
          weksha50 25 October 2017 17: 16 New
          +2
          Quote: 34 region
          And stubbornly offers everything to shake off this private business who constantly goes bankrupt. It turns out that he himself cannot organize effective activity, and the oligarchs cannot.


          No ... He goes bankrupt for two reasons - I don’t know which one to call first ...
          The first - at the request of the owners ... The second - because of the boorish and unfriendly attitude of the state bureaucratic system to this private business ...
          But in general, everything depends on modern human qualities: to give (receive) profit at any cost today, absolutely not thinking about tomorrow and not spending a dime on development ...
          Where did this tribe come from when it grew up? God knows ...
    2. E_V_N
      E_V_N 25 October 2017 14: 35 New
      +1
      unpunished "economical noodles" to hang on the ears of the population

      What population, what are you talking about, which of them thinks about the population? The main object of their economic innovation of GDP, it is for him that this whole play, the "one-viewer theater", is being played. Moreover, the viewer is very grateful and trusting.
    3. weksha50
      weksha50 25 October 2017 17: 03 New
      +1
      Quote: Sergey-svs
      All Russian so-called economic "luminaries": Siluanovs, Ulyukaevs, Kudrins, Nabiulins, etc. - they’re carrying nonsense, they’re used to unpunished “economical noodles” hanging on the ears of the population and there’s nothing to answer for!


      And by the way, to their surprise, THEY often talk about the financial illiteracy of the population and the need to increase it ...
      It seems to me that even THIS speaks of their personal mental underdevelopment ...
      If our population without exception becomes financially literate, then Siluanov-Nabiullin-Kudrin will not have a place at the trough ... laughing
    4. Mexovoy
      Mexovoy 28 October 2017 00: 37 New
      +1
      Where is your non-bullshit analysis?
  3. Owl
    Owl 25 October 2017 07: 18 New
    +5
    Players on the financial impoverishment of Russian citizens.
    1. Soran
      Soran 25 October 2017 09: 55 New
      +3
      Bankers and financiers did not fit into the market.
  4. Same lech
    Same lech 25 October 2017 07: 32 New
    +3
    And we all will find out the answer to this question very soon.


    Do not bring me to a heart attack ... God forbid The Central Bank will start another scam with depreciating the savings of ordinary citizens ... oooo enemies of the people ... there is no Mauser on you.
    1. ADmA_RUS
      ADmA_RUS 25 October 2017 08: 11 New
      +6
      Do not break God's commandment.
      You are not an enemy for the Central Bank, you are a "feed". For under capitalism, ordinary citizens are primarily a "resource", you, I, to a greater extent act as the subject of relationships, and the object.
      1. Same lech
        Same lech 25 October 2017 08: 14 New
        +2
        ordinary citizens are, first of all, a “resource”, you, I, first of all, are not a subject of relationships, but an object.


        You are right ... a thousand times right ...

        but this is unfair ... it should not be.
        1. ADmA_RUS
          ADmA_RUS 26 October 2017 22: 49 New
          0
          This is the second question. But at the moment, neither the technical capabilities nor the active desire of the citizens of the Russian Federation to change the socio-economic formation - no.
          It is necessary to carry out propaganda work, especially among young people.
  5. ADmA_RUS
    ADmA_RUS 25 October 2017 08: 06 New
    +2
    No need to look for a black cat in a dark room when she is not there.
    The problem is not the very fact that inflation and the key rate are reduced, but its speed. Banks have a lot of long dip deposits at their hands, with rates twice as high as inflation. Reducing the lending rate makes them increasingly fierce competition. Additionally, the system leaves a stable state. And it scares many, which is quite normal. Or do you think Otkrytie Bank had to be dormant only because of the actions of its management and shareholders?
    And the habit of counting inflation, leave the main cheaters of the US planet.
    1. E_V_N
      E_V_N 25 October 2017 14: 52 New
      +1
      Quote: ADmA_RUS

      The problem is not the very fact that inflation and the key rate are reduced, but its speed. Banks have a lot of long-term deposits in their hands with rates twice as high as inflation.

      Many banks for 5 years already have been holding for the population lower rates on deposits longer than 0,5 years, setting (lowering) interest on one deposit, depending on the term. Moreover, allowing re-register deposits without loss after 3-6 months. Around the world, interest on "long" investments is several times higher than on "short" and "demand", but not in the Russian Federation. And the reason is that banks are not used to playing long, their Forex skate and household loans to households. They even give a mortgage reluctantly, because how long to wait.
      1. ADmA_RUS
        ADmA_RUS 26 October 2017 22: 52 New
        0
        Again. I have a deposit account, the percentage on it is almost two times higher than inflation. This is a serious burden for the bank. There are about 24 trillion dipozits in the Russian Federation (from memory). Inflation is falling faster than the deposit rate.
        1. E_V_N
          E_V_N 26 October 2017 23: 13 New
          0
          Quote: ADmA_RUS
          Again. I have a deposit account, the percentage on it is almost two times higher than inflation. This is a serious burden for the bank. There are about 24 trillion dipozits in the Russian Federation (from memory). Inflation is falling faster than the deposit rate.

          Again. There will be a “load” for the bank when it will be forced to issue loans at interest below the rates of accepted deposits. Do you seriously believe that this is possible? The interest at which you can get a loan at the bank is always lower than the interest at which you can put money on deposit. And here is the inflation rate? Incidentally, the Central Bank refinancing rate is now 2,5 times higher than inflation. The interest on the deposit is always less than the refinancing rate, and the interest on the loan is always higher.
  6. nickname7
    nickname7 25 October 2017 08: 33 New
    +3
    The liberals said that if there is inflation of 4%, the world will literally rush to invest in the Russian Federation. Boeing, intel and Volkswagen, will build factories and how to live! Therefore, any measures, any measures to heal and tighten the belt and endure high percentages, but then we will heal. And so low inflation has come and where is the investment? Liberals should repent, they say they’ve made a mistake, they couldn’t, but they make the fashion a "brick" and they say that now low inflation is bad, but what, people are doing it.
  7. Siberian
    Siberian 25 October 2017 08: 35 New
    +4
    The Central Bank rate plays a decisive role. It should be BELOW than inflation. At the same time, it makes sense to use crypto ruble for mortgage transactions (or on state defense orders).
    Then, for example, for a mortgage it will be easy to trace the chain: Central Bank -> BANK -> Construction Organization -> Contractor.
    To wash or steal the headstock with this scheme will be practically unrealistic.
    1. CONTROL
      CONTROL 25 October 2017 13: 41 New
      +2
      Quote: Siberian
      Then, for example, for a mortgage it will be easy to trace the chain: Central Bank -> BANK -> Construction Organization -> Contractor.
      To wash or steal the headstock with this scheme will be practically unrealistic.

      So before - with the Union - and it was!
      Therefore, they fired in kind - with building materials and work ... overstating volumes! Garbage collection from an area of ​​several globes ... balls of such ... earth!
      1. Siberian
        Siberian 26 October 2017 04: 38 New
        0
        Now tyr in kind will not work - the cost of construction will not agree with the plan - all this is easy to immediately identify.
  8. andrewkor
    andrewkor 25 October 2017 08: 38 New
    +3
    Here are the bloodsuckers, God forgive me! The experts on VO spoke correctly with the words of Lenin: in modern Russia capitalism is at the stage of imperialism!
  9. Olfred
    Olfred 25 October 2017 08: 41 New
    +1
    Bad - bad! Good - All the same bad! Where to go? Well, economists complained, they’ll come up with something else interesting) We didn’t live richly, there’s nothing to start (s) wassat hi
  10. Gormenghast
    Gormenghast 25 October 2017 09: 11 New
    +6
    There are no working economic theories, from the word at all. laughing

    There is only one real thing - only those who rob, rob and intend to rob those around them live richly. This is life at the expense of others. All Swedes (who are so fond of bulkers) do not know how to earn; they can only rob. And they have no right to teach others. First, let a billion golden-handed give away the stolen to six billion golden-handed. am
  11. Stas157
    Stas157 25 October 2017 09: 14 New
    11
    . Siluanov suddenly announced that a slowdown in inflation, it turns out, could be almost poison for the Russian economy.
    How so?? We have been fighting inflation all these years! This is still the main evil was !! Now what happens?
    I recalled how Manstein described Russian weather in his memoirs. Summer is like terrible heat and nightmare dust, from which poor Germans suffocated. Autumn, like impassable mud, dull rains and a complete lack of roads, because of which the Germans were completely exhausted. Well, and with the onset of winter colds came full kryndets!
    So is our government! Whatever situation in the economy arises, everything is perceived as soon as worse.
    1. E_V_N
      E_V_N 25 October 2017 14: 59 New
      +1
      [quote = Stas157] [quote] So is our government! Whatever situation in the economy arises - everything is perceived as soon as worse. [/ Quote]

      Exactly, the high oil price was in the way, all the efforts went where the petrodollars were to build in order to make less profit, otherwise they would have to build on the profit. That low oil prices, "no money, but you hold on." Now a new disaster, inflation turned out to be rather low.
  12. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 25 October 2017 09: 28 New
    +1
    Bankers - do not mind. Go fat. Nothing, both industry will learn how to lend, and a mortgage at 5%
    Only, as it seems to me, the rehabilitation of the banking sector was carried out precisely to prepare for this - low inflation. And while the ruble is being kept "understated" at a rate cut.
  13. Dark_Filin
    Dark_Filin 25 October 2017 09: 43 New
    14
    Well this is ridiculous. The author has no idea what is happening in the banking sector. Firstly, there is no need to be confused - justification for interest (i.e., chatter) and real economic reasons. If we take the logic of the author, the bank takes from the Central Bank at the refinancing rate, for example, 19% (which includes inflation) and gives it to 30% to the client. Bank profit - 11%. The Central Bank lowered the refinancing rate to 12% - the bank likewise reduces the rate to 23% and has the same 11% profit. Where is the damage to the bank?
    And secondly - I will reveal a little secret to the author - banks did not take money from the Central Bank. They stupidly took loans in the West at 3%, but here they gave this money at 30%, and everyone did not give a damn about the Central Bank rate. And now the West has forbidden to give loans to Russian banks for at least some long term. And suddenly it became clear that the Russian Federation does not have a banking system - to borrow under 3% and to give back under 30% - a lot of brains are not needed. With such income, you can not evaluate borrowers, you can spit on the selection and training of personnel - the profit will cover the jambs. But take at 9,25% (current rate), give at 20% and still make money in a falling market, where it is not clear who will still pay on loans tomorrow and who will go bankrupt ...
    1. Stas157
      Stas157 25 October 2017 10: 32 New
      11
      Quote: Dark_Filin
      But to take it at 9,25% (the current rate), give it at 20% and still make money in a falling market, where it is not clear who will pay the loans tomorrow and who will go bankrupt ...

      And what is 10% really not enough for Russian banks? In the West, for some reason 3% is enough to give loans favorably. And then the percentage of bad loans in advance is calculated and mortgaged. This is already a worked out moment and our banks will not be at a loss.
      By the way, at a high percentage, only ordinary people are credited (the last pants are taken off!). But the grain is not higher than 11% per annum.
    2. Volodin
      25 October 2017 12: 14 New
      +3
      Quote: Dark_Filin
      Well, it's funny.

      This is really funny. It is especially ridiculous that the text does not say a word that banks took money from the Central Bank ...
  14. andrej-shironov
    andrej-shironov 25 October 2017 09: 55 New
    +5
    The main reason for all the troubles is the neoliberal government led by Putin and the oligarchs! Until the issue of their abolition is resolved, there will be no really positive and good progress in the Russian economy!
    1. Victor N
      Victor N 25 October 2017 13: 17 New
      0
      Election soon, go to the presidency! Ali vote for Sobchak. Taking responsibility is not something that quietly crap.
      1. andrej-shironov
        andrej-shironov 25 October 2017 16: 44 New
        0
        You go. And my relatives and I do not go to these elections, there is no adequate candidate. At my level, I always bear responsibility and have never been afraid of it, unlike you.
  15. Monster_Fat
    Monster_Fat 25 October 2017 10: 56 New
    +7
    Low inflation .... they don’t pay salaries or pay pennies — people buy only what is absolutely necessary — purchasing demand falls on goods and services — in order not to splurge on expenses and rents, businessmen close by expelling workers to the streets, they are trying somehow they are going to survive for even less paid work — even less money — the economy is shrinking, but the Central Bank is enthusiastically reporting on successful inflation targeting to the premium management.
    PS: Yes, and many somehow leave “the brackets” of the main “locomotives” of inflation, the so-called “natural monopolies” which, from year to year, “clog” the budget with rising prices for energy supplies of the type because of the “inflation component, which they themselves generate ...
  16. Vard
    Vard 25 October 2017 11: 25 New
    +1
    The expression "Russian economists" ... the contender for the shortest joke ...
  17. X
    X Y Z 25 October 2017 12: 50 New
    +2
    Yes, the freebie ends. And everything was so magnificent - bankers and officials ran around with anxious faces and urgently demanded "target inflation." Otherwise, death is an economy. And the profit went and everyone was at work. And there was nothing to invent! And suddenly trouble, targeted her poor to the limit and now do not know what to do. Something like a girl who was so worn and proud of her virginity that she did not know where to attach her later. The big top continues ...
  18. Vasilenko Vladimir
    Vasilenko Vladimir 25 October 2017 13: 22 New
    +1
    2016 - 5,4%. Forecast for the current year - up to 3,6%

    to give in the face of this economist, or better to make compensate for the real price increase from his feed
  19. CONTROL
    CONTROL 25 October 2017 13: 32 New
    +5
    No, that's right! Inflation in the country is decreasing ... and for banks - always gaining "fat" not even at the expense of industrial loans, consumer loans and mortgages - but due to currency speculation! These speculations and gave rise to an abundance of banks, "daughter-stepsons", ephemeral ...
    In normal capitalist the country has an optimal investment / industrial loan rate - 6-8%, agricultural loan - 3-4%, consumer - 0,2-1% (mortgage - a special article).
    В abnormal - Russia - speculative lending, works objectively on inflation (money from the air ...). The domestic market is not saturated with consumer goods (our own!) - there is no competition between manufacturers (only sellers ...), using a lending policy it is impossible to separate a successful entrepreneur from sucker! All products are “in demand” (except for those for which the consumer has no money), loans are extinguished by re-lending and speculative currency transactions, competition in terms of product quality and quantity does not work!
    The capitalist economy works through a few simple mechanisms, the main of which is competition. Bad businessmen take losses and leave the market, leaving the best on the playing field: those who make a dollar and a dime each year from the dollar. Banks should accelerate the selection process for the best by providing loans at 6-12% per annum .... Imagine two businessmen, John and Bill. John works fine, earning his few percent profits and looking confidently into the future. Bill does not know how to work, he has only losses. At a normal rate on loans, Bill would go broke pretty quickly and free up the market for John. However, now Bill can take a loan at a bank at a very small percentage and ... continue to work at a loss. In two or three years, when the money runs out, take another loan. And then one more and one more, thereby delaying their bankruptcy to infinity.
    At the same time, a skilled businessman John is forced to follow Bill involuntarily: lower prices below the level of profitability so as not to lose customers in this unhealthy market. As an example, we can point out the American shale industry, most of which at a normal rate on loans would have gone bankrupt for a long time, thereby returning oil prices to a healthy level of $ 100 or more per barrel.
    Add to this unsightly picture the monopoly and oligopoly, which cheap loans made it possible to grow uncontrollably, and the portrait of the disease will probably be completed.
    https://www.planet-kob.ru/news/20171024/6540
    Cheap loans are good when you have access to them, and your competitors do not.
    And - is the market for goods and services in Russia so saturated? competitive in the world market - products? Not to mention the artificially limited purchasing power of the population in the consumer market ...
    Therefore - for Russia, the loan rate of 2-3% - both in industrial loans and in consumer loans - is optimal, and in mortgage loans - and a fraction of a percent ... It is necessary to develop! Grow!!!
    We observed something similar in the USSR in the 1970-80s. The Soviet authorities did not have enough political will to close inefficient enterprises, and they gradually degraded, producing less and less high-quality and less popular products by the economy. Hothouse conditions led to a logical outcome: when, after the collapse of the USSR, domestic industry was thrown into the arena of capitalist tigers, that first years could hardly provide them with decent resistance.
    Exactly the same thing is happening now in the West. Of course, the central banks of the United States and the European Union are well aware that negative interest rate policy (POPS) is a dead end, but it is no longer possible to return to healthy capitalist rails. Raising rates to a level of at least 5% per annum is guaranteed to kill a business that is hooked on cheap loans.
    Unfortunately, this problem no longer has a beautiful solution. If the USSR had even a theoretical opportunity to follow the example of China, gently reforming the economy (instead of giving it to the slaughter of pro-American reformers), then our Western friends and partners simply do not have such an opportunity. Over the past 15 years, printing presses have released so much money that it is unlikely that it will be possible to get out of the crisis without massive bankruptcies and hyperinflation.
    https://www.planet-kob.ru/news/20171024/6540
    1. E_V_N
      E_V_N 25 October 2017 15: 26 New
      +1
      Quote: CONTROL
      to close inefficient enterprises, and they gradually degraded, producing products of less and less high quality and less and less demanded by the economy.

      Under capitalism, the cause of the crisis is always the problem of overproduction. More and more enterprises begin to produce cost-effective goods, as a result, supply rises, price decreases, price falls below cost, enterprises begin to go bankrupt, layoffs - CRISIS. The USSR destroyed the same thing. It seemed like a planned economy, what kind of overproduction can we talk about? But remember the Stakhanov movement, which the Communist Party seized upon, with a general deficit, it was a blessing, but then the "mandatory" plan was overfulfilled by 2-10%. As a result, we have the same overproduction, overstocking with unnecessary “trash”, deadening resources and pumping the economy with money for unrealized goods. Stable prices were kept by the administrative resource; as a result, they received a shortage of consumer goods and food.
    2. weksha50
      weksha50 25 October 2017 17: 33 New
      +2
      Quote: CONTROL
      Therefore - for Russia, the loan rate of 2-3% - both in industrial loans and in consumer loans - is optimal, and in mortgage loans - and a fraction of a percent ... It is necessary to develop! Grow!!!


      good hi
      I’m only afraid that we cannot cope with the greed of our grabber-financiers-bankers, who can only make money from soap bubbles, and we can’t live to such a banking system in the near future ...
      This year alone, the number of commercial banks in Russia is 623 (not counting various non-profit and other microfinance organizations. But how are they non-profit, if they are engaged in lending?) ... Fool ... And every year it’s a hundred reduced. .. But what's the point?
  20. 16112014nk
    16112014nk 25 October 2017 14: 54 New
    +1
    Quote: Victor N
    The elections are coming soon

    "Elections, elections
    Candidates - Pid @ Ry! "© S. Shnurov
  21. weksha50
    weksha50 25 October 2017 17: 00 New
    +2
    "According to the chief financier of Russia," the sharp slowdown in inflation that is observed today, able to create risks for Russian companies, primarily for financial companies"" ...

    That’s the whole essence of the problem - in one sentence .... And this is said by the country's chief financier ..... The main thing is bank profits, momentary and huge ... Yes, in such percentages that Western banks have never dreamed of ...
    EMU (and IM) do not need the development of industry, agriculture, etc ....
    Strangers are people, strangers ... Not ours ...
    To put it another way - “Our people don’t take a taxi to the bakery,” football clubs don’t buy, and they force the banking system to work for the country's economy, NOT THE VERSION !!!
    Mlyn, the impression is that the whole country, its state apparatus, all the servants of the people in the Duma and various legislative assemblies and city halls work specifically for the banking system of Russia !!! fool angry
  22. tochila
    tochila 25 October 2017 22: 20 New
    +1
    Anyone who wants to go the way of the rich must learn to rob the poor! I read somewhere
  23. seacap
    seacap 27 October 2017 17: 17 New
    0
    So far, in our country, TNCs have ruled the ball, having established colonial feudal capitalism as a result of the counter-revolution, and in the serfs they have completely dependent and bought serfs, specially trained at Yale and other universities, placed in key positions even with the foreman and his clique we will not see good luck. So the indefatigable robbery of the country and people will continue, the Chicago exchange will determine the price of our ruble, so our ghouls will invest in the economy of the powers hostile to us, restrain and suppress any attempt to develop, destroy education, raising children so that creative and talented, and most importantly, patriotic figures do not grow up, destroy science and industry under the guise of reform.
  24. tank64rus
    tank64rus 27 October 2017 17: 30 New
    0
    In this government, stick a finger and you will fall into the treasury .. Rad. Well, this is the one who enjoys access to the treasury. Well, what does everyone else feel there on themselves.
  25. Vasilenko Vladimir
    Vasilenko Vladimir 28 October 2017 08: 13 New
    0
    E_V_N,
    Quote: Vasilenko Vladimir
    there is a question for GDP, please visit the site and they will answer you in writing within two weeks
    Who will answer? personally GDP or those who are preparing him a selection of news and videos? You know, in my life I have seen enough answers from officials of various stripes and levels, I'm fed up.

    you ride or checkers ?!
    Quote: E_V_N
    If you personally have enough news on channel 1 to understand what is happening in the world, this is your right. Just do not need GDP and the rest in their level to measure.

    Well, the level of your ANALYTICAL abilities is off scale
    1. E_V_N
      E_V_N 28 October 2017 13: 46 New
      0
      Quote: Vasilenko Vladimir
      Well, the level of your ANALYTICAL abilities is off scale


      Well blurted out stupidity that GDP does not have physical ability to get reliable information about what is happening in the country, they would have kept silent, since the courage is not enough to admit that they said stupidity. And then you behave like a first-grader in a sandbox.
      1. Vasilenko Vladimir
        Vasilenko Vladimir 28 October 2017 14: 32 New
        0
        understanding your problem
        Excuse me, who do you work?
        1. vik669
          vik669 29 October 2017 15: 09 New
          0
          Why, my friend, but because
          What I did not teach life from textbooks.
          I just work, I just work
          I just work as a magician.
          The wizard.
  26. pepel
    pepel 28 October 2017 16: 06 New
    0
    Now liberals need to compose an “opera” about the dangers of low inflation. This is not a matter of economics, but politics. Top management needs to throw a strong rein on the government and bankers, so as not to do anything to please their loved ones. Losing high profits can push for any “feats”.
  27. vik669
    vik669 29 October 2017 15: 06 New
    0
    Not diarrhea, so scrofula
  28. Stepan Kudinov
    Stepan Kudinov 29 October 2017 15: 26 New
    0
    I quote P. Shkumatov, there are no words at the very words - only matyuki: "This country will not be destroyed by corruption, but by stupidity and illiteracy. This is how it is possible that the whole Minister of Finance of the whole Russian Federation can say this nonsense:" Therefore, we agreed on the following - "that the state needs to regulate the process of issuing cryptocurrencies, mining, the circulation process. The state should take all this under control."