Military Review

Ukraine between the "European dream" and the reality of depopulation

24
Not so long ago, the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Sweden, Carl Bildt, wrote on his Twitter a new picture of “common Europe”: “Over a million Poles are working in the UK. More than a million Ukrainians work in Poland. ” Leading the Swedish Foreign Ministry, Bildt was one of those European politicians who actively supported both the Ukrainian Maidan itself and the coup d'état in Ukraine. In the hotter time of those events, the Swedish minister was not once in K



Carl Bildt at the Right Sector rally in Odessa, 2014 year


Sad thoughts about the Ukrainian labor market

The speech of Carl Bildt at that conference (he called Kiev for democracy, reforms, European cooperation and warned against establishing relations with Moscow) was very much remembered by the new Ukrainian government. Then, after the resignation of Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, a Swede, by that time already unemployed, in the administration of Poroshenko was seriously considered as a candidate for the post of head of the Ukrainian government.

The Ukrainian site Glavkom, who wrote about these plans of Petro Poroshenko, incidentally noted that Bildt has his own vision of the future of Ukraine. For example, at the aforementioned conference, the Swede cited the Ukrainians as an example to emulate Poland, “having achieved success in the European market”. However, the appointment of Bildt did not take place. Experts believe that the Americans have said their word here.

In the United States about the Swedish policy has developed not the most favorable opinion. In the secret diplomatic correspondence published by WikiLeaks, Americans note Bildt’s “limited diplomatic skills” and compare him to a “medium-sized dog with large habits.” Apparently, this quality again leapt into retired politics and prompted him to post on Twitter.

However, this post did not cause the reaction in Ukraine that Carl Bildt apparently hoped for. Instead of puppy joy from the opportunity to go to work in Poland, Ukrainian political analysts thought about how to close the needs of their own labor market. Reflections turned out to be sad.

“Poverty pushes people abroad,” political scientist Andrei Zolotarev said sadly on the 112 channel. He noted the new Ukrainian trend, “if a husband or wife went to“ zero ”to work, now they are leaving by families ...” Dmitry Kovalevich described this in reality in the Ukraina.ru publication.

Kovalevich spoke about the situation in the small regional center of Cherkasy. The city is flooded with free ads, starting with the phrase "I will sell in connection with the departure." Citing data from local agencies, the author notes that the proposals for the sale of real estate in 10-12 times the demand. People don't leave. They really run.

The main reason lies on the surface: "The level of salaries offered by private entrepreneurs and public services (3200-5000 hryvnia) does not allow even more or less to exist, to pay utilities, not to mention the possibility of renting housing."

It is worth noting that the existing price tag on the labor market was formed not only because of the current economic conditions. Wage growth in Ukraine is constrained by the active intervention of the International Monetary Fund. It is known, in particular, the public opinion of the First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, David Lipton, that the increase in wages in Ukraine "will affect the profitability and competitiveness."

Good to live abroad!

The authorities accepted this as an unconditional guide to action. As a result, Ukrainians rushed out of the country to provide themselves and their families with funds. A local political analyst, Taras Berezovets, wrote on his Facebook page that, because of low wages at home, about 12 million of Ukrainian citizens work abroad.

Berezovets refers to his sources in the cabinet and decrypts the above figure. According to the political scientist, 3 − 3,5 million. Ukrainians go to work in Russia, about 7 million work in the European Union, another 2 million work in the United States and Asian countries. At the same time, “if before, mostly residents of western Ukraine went to work, now residents of the southern regions of Ukraine also went to migrant workers”.

Cherkasy, as we know, is not at all the west and not the south, but the center of the country itself. Previously, he himself was the attraction of migrants from depressed rural areas. Now the city, as, indeed, most of the regional centers of Ukraine, is experiencing an acute shortage of labor, especially professionally trained personnel.

This is a new postmaid reality. In previous years, the provincial district and regional centers of Ukraine in connection with the shutdown of large industrial enterprises faced with a relatively high level of unemployment. Now employers are complaining about a critical shortage of staff.

Moreover, it is not only about qualified engineering and working personnel. (According to the Cherkassy Regional Employment Center, “two thirds of those who officially left last year to earn money have a higher or vocational education.”) Electricians, porters, waitresses, salespeople, commodity specialists, cashiers, office managers are required. There seems to be no end to this list.

Going to work abroad with whole families identified another problem. The inflow of currency into the country from migrant workers has decreased, and quite significantly. Experts give the following example: in the past, mini-beads with people going home for a trip were carrying an average of 30-40 thousand euros. Now ten times less - 3-4 thousands of euros. People began to spend money where they earn.

Moreover, many are not going to return to Ukraine. They link their future with the states of their current stay. Such sentiments are fueled by countries interested in the Ukrainian labor force - the same Poland. There, now for a modest fee or not at all (often - with the payment of a student scholarship) you can get an education in demand in Europe.

About this in Ukraine, they know and react accordingly. The results of a survey published last week by the sociological group Rating revealed that 35% of Ukrainian citizens would like to leave the country for good. This is 5% more than last year’s measurements of public sentiment.

Sociologists state that in the 18-35-year-old age group, emigration aspirations have reached the level of 54 percent. Older people have a desire to break away from the lived-in place less (19%). But for the most part (70% of respondents) they want their children and grandchildren to go to work or study abroad.

The picture is sad. Instead of realizing their “European dream” in their homeland, the disappointed Ukrainians are now looking for happiness abroad. Sociologists and political scientists who are not connected with the Kiev authorities paint a bleak future for their country. Not only is Ukraine gradually turning into the place of residence of pensioners, it is also threatened by real depopulation.

“For our demographics, with the difference between fertility and mortality, the outflow of people abroad is a tremendous danger to the country,” political scientist Andrey Zolotarev is convinced. “We can restore the plants, open up new production, but if we lose human capital, it will be a catastrophic loss for the country.”

It is curious that the change of the situation for the better, local experts do not associate with the recovery of the economy or socio-political environment, but with a purely mechanical replenishment of the population due to migrants from other, even more depressed countries. Taras Berezovets, for example, proposes to import workers from CIS countries and Southeast Asia.

A political scientist calls this measure not popular - probably, with an eye on the Ukrainian nationalists, who mounted power in Kiev. And maybe because the reliance on people of a different culture and faith brought confusion even to the prosperous society of old Europe, what can we say about Ukraine, torn apart by civil conflict.

Kiev economists have their doubts. First, over the years of Maidan’s authority, Ukraine’s gross per capita income fell to 8300 dollars. This is significantly less than in the CIS countries with skilled labor - Belarus, Kazakhstan, and the countries of the Transcaucasus. Secondly, citizens from Central Asia who are not in the above list are quite in demand in the better-off Russian labor market.

It turns out almost hopeless for the country situation. Its hopelessness is exacerbated by the lack of a serious state policy. In Kiev, now is not up to such concerns as the future of the Ukrainian state. Today, the priority of local politicians is not a public good, but a personal condition. They share power and money. And there’s no end in sight ...
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  1. St Petrov
    St Petrov 25 October 2017 15: 23 New
    11
    You need to insert this picture under each such topic.

    1. Megatron
      Megatron 25 October 2017 21: 43 New
      0
      It would be our Asians to send everyone to Khokhlostan, there they have places for Gastriks.
      1. St Petrov
        St Petrov 25 October 2017 21: 46 New
        +2
        the saddest thing is that having stood at the helm, they will be explained their benefits to the economy. And such hell at home will begin to happen if they close the Russian Federation. And because of hell, they just all go here. Across the border, over the fence, across the fields.

        Yes, and it’s very easy to get our hands on our geopolitical partners. If we close ourselves from Asia, then we just give it to the Saxons without a fight

        in general, this is a difficult question. They do not have to pay pensions yet and they do not put a burden on the budget. They also unfasten this monthly certificate. In general, they are positive for the economy. It’s not just that migrant workers in the world are a large-scale phenomenon and show me a country where they are not.

        Moreover, a small city can be cleared of them by riot police and other units in one night. The bulk. But without them, really everything will rise. Who builds roads? Bridges. If you remove them - the construction will rise, and then it will start to cost very expensive. And such if an infinite number

        But of course I would have been nicer to live in a mono-ethnic environment among the Russians. But we are already adults and things are not so clear
        1. purple
          purple 27 October 2017 16: 21 New
          +1
          Quote: s-t Petrov
          Moreover, a small city can be cleared of them by riot police and other units in one night. The bulk. But without them, really everything will rise. Who builds roads? Bridges. If you remove them - the construction will rise, and then it will start to cost very expensive. And such if an infinite number


          Yes, nothing will arise without them, everything will be built without them, they just need them to be easier to “throw” without paying for the work, or paying a penny.
          This will not work with the locals. Gaster is needed only for those who want to make money quickly
  2. 210ox
    210ox 25 October 2017 15: 23 New
    10
    And you didn’t notice that something similar is happening in our country? Moscow and Peter, like giant vacuum cleaners, are pulling labor resources from all over the country .. Moreover, there is no work and no decent salary in Zamkadye. Smolensk region, for example .. if you look beyond the Urals. Here is the depopulation for you ..
    1. Cresta999
      Cresta999 25 October 2017 16: 32 New
      +5
      As a resident of Zamkadya I’ll answer - you are disingenuous. Or do not want to work.
      1. Vasya Vassin
        Vasya Vassin 25 October 2017 17: 51 New
        +2
        Yes? Ai-ayay, does not want to work. (There is a long and long sigh in this place). The only question is, how much does he not want to work for?
      2. 210ox
        210ox 25 October 2017 17: 54 New
        +5
        I’m not cunning. And I’m working and built a house .. But it’s not like another. Especially for youth. If you have work, then you have to plow for 15-20 thousand. And I have education and experience .. And I’ll retire soon. I hope . So I'm not an indicator about the "desire to work"
        Quote: Cresta999
        As a resident of Zamkadya I’ll answer - you are disingenuous. Or do not want to work.
        1. Good Zsul
          Good Zsul 25 October 2017 19: 30 New
          +2
          Vasya Vaskin - in November of that year, I worked in the village of Stavropol Krasnodar Territory, I earned about 2 rubles in 100000 months ... And I'm from the LPR and I am over 50)))
          1. St Petrov
            St Petrov 25 October 2017 21: 59 New
            +1
            then for 15-20 thousand you have to plow


            at first I plowed for a much smaller amount
          2. ando_bor
            ando_bor 26 October 2017 03: 23 New
            +1
            Quote: Good Zusul
            I worked in the village of Stavropol Krasnodar Territory, in 2 months I earned about 100000 rubles ... And I'm from the LPR and I am over 50)))

            And I have to work a month for this money in the Urals. I am from the Stavropol Territory the same for 50.
            - The same hired propagandists whine here that Ukraine was maidan, or their brainless victims, there are such.
            1. Good Zsul
              Good Zsul 26 October 2017 08: 53 New
              0
              About hired propagandists, please read more
    2. ser6119
      ser6119 25 October 2017 23: 03 New
      +1
      Okay, Smolensk region, but I live in the suburbs! There were a dozen enterprises in our city, now we have a communal city-forming enterprise :(
  3. goland72
    goland72 25 October 2017 15: 26 New
    +2
    Whether it’s true or false, I don’t know. But something was fed up ...
  4. polpot
    polpot 25 October 2017 16: 14 New
    +5
    This is their conscious choice. Ukraine ponaduvse and Moskalyaku for gilyaka now let them pay with full deindustrialization and depopulation, but the whole world is with them
  5. Eurodav
    Eurodav 25 October 2017 17: 38 New
    0
    ... former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Sweden Karl Bildt ... Zadolbali these former! Everyone wants to blurt out something ...
    1. Catherine II
      Catherine II 26 October 2017 17: 30 New
      0
      Quote: Evrodav
      Former Foreign Minister of Sweden Carl Bildt ...

      He loved hanging around Odessa (several times), and even in Ukraine.
      The photo is wrong, there 70 is a man of local Euromaidan, while Mr. walked around the center and communicated with representatives of the public. It was April 13 ... I saw this action from Ekaterininskaya Square. 70 people for Euromaidan, 20 000 for "federalization" as they were later called .. it was funny until the city paid fifty lives for "political pranks"
  6. Eurodav
    Eurodav 25 October 2017 17: 41 New
    +6
    Quote: c-Petrov
    You need to insert this picture under each such topic.


    Burn it in hell with a company of the same ghouls! Even if it disappeared from the screens after clever utterances? Once upon a time, my wife and I argued that this .... would show itself ... Showed! But mine got more mad from Akhedzhakova ...
  7. Eurodav
    Eurodav 25 October 2017 18: 18 New
    +4
    Quote: 210ox
    And you didn’t notice that something similar is happening in our country? Moscow and Peter, like giant vacuum cleaners, are pulling labor resources from all over the country .. Moreover, there is no work and no decent salary in Zamkadye. Smolensk region, for example .. if you look beyond the Urals. Here is the depopulation for you ..

    So it’s for them, call them backstage or whatever you like, it’s profitable ... As long as Russia is dissatisfied with the Center, there is an opportunity for the Revolution ... It also looks strange from the outside: Muscovites, you will soon reach the Urals in rings! And so already how many areas have swallowed, what's the point of upsetting one city? Well, let's change the name, it will be, damn it, not Russia, but Moscow!
    And even more incomprehensible is the concentration in Moscow of all ministries and departments! From the point of view of grabbers, the status is understandable! And from the point of view of ordinary people? As I once wrote: the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation for the Ural Range, the General Staff is also to be removed from a potential strike. In short, the meaning is: Lumberjacks to Siberia, Rybolov to the Far East, Oil workers to Tyumen! Gazovikov- where is the gas! Farmers - To Kuban or Krasnodar, Coal miners - to Kuzbass! Moscow is just the capital, without any nishtyakov! With a salary average for the country! After such an outcome from the capital of the Ministries and departments in different cities of Russia, we will achieve:
    1. The solution to the problem of traffic jams in Moscow!
    2. Development of roads and other infrastructure throughout Russia, and not just in Moscow.
    3. The bureaucrats sitting out their asses are eliminated, for the sake of nishtyakov, the prospect of changing permanent residence from Moscow to Vladik or Tyumen is a litmus test for them!
    4. Finally, the Muscovites will return to their native shores again, and then we are waiting for them!
    There is still much to be imagined how much imagination is enough ... yes ... I also forgot one thing- Sobyanin is taken by Norilsk, he is the most effective, damn it, city manager, let's see how he raises Norilsk without a personal Moscow budget !!! Just what the news said, he increases pensions for Muscovites by 3000r. Not by 0.1-0.5 percent, but immediately by a specific amount! So here it is ... And voiced, the pension in Moscow is 14500 (I listened to the average or minimum), but it will be 17500, so we consider how many percent ...
    1. St Petrov
      St Petrov 25 October 2017 18: 24 New
      +2
      And even more incomprehensible is the concentration in Moscow of all ministries and departments!


      ABM is built only around Moscow. The most protected district. The division stands to defend the constitutional order 2 km from the Moscow Ring Road. How many rings of air defense. There is still a ring "concrete" - specially built for air defense. + bunkers + metro + hell knows what is built there and is

      In general, this is necessary.

      In short, the meaning is: Lumberjacks to Siberia, Rybolov to the Far East, Oil workers to Tyumen! Gazovikov- where is the gas! Farmers - To Kuban or Krasnodar, Coal miners - to Kuzbass! Moscow is just the capital, without any nishtyakov


      Russia is a logistic pit. Go broke. You can lower the entire budget of the country to the roads - and then they will not asphalt. And after 3-5-10 years, you still need to change the canvas

  8. tolmachiev51
    tolmachiev51 26 October 2017 05: 11 New
    +1
    Rejoice dill !!!, while visa-free with Russia.
    1. Catherine II
      Catherine II 26 October 2017 17: 32 New
      0
      Quote: tolmachiev51
      Rejoice dill !!!, while visa-free with Russia.

      The main thing for me is that Russians be allowed to the Russian Federation from Ukraine and back. Especially with children.
      The topic is correct --- I listened to the debate on this issue. ЗП just grow, but quality of a material falls. Already wrote that the people prefer the "light" money in Poland / Russia or the United States with Israel .. but not here. Sometimes an equal income with Poland, but they will still choose Poland.
      The RFP will be forced to grow, no IMF will hold back, for there is no one to work. Now, at the same time, Ukraine is “catching up” with the Russian Federation on prices (first and foremost) and an increase in salary (this is not so fast anyway, much lower and much)
      That is, soon the cheap prices in Ukraine will remain history (compared to the Russian Federation)
  9. tolmachiev51
    tolmachiev51 26 October 2017 05: 18 New
    0
    Quote: Evrodav
    Quote: c-Petrov
    You need to insert this picture under each such topic.


    Burn it in hell with a company of the same ghouls! Even if it disappeared from the screens after clever utterances? Once upon a time, my wife and I argued that this .... would show itself ... Showed! But mine got more mad from Akhedzhakova ...

    And who got better !!! ??? The people, as always, remained at work !!!
  10. Normal ok
    Normal ok 29 October 2017 16: 49 New
    0
    The reality of depopulation
    , is a reality for almost all European countries, including Russia. Tired of reading articles such as "Ukraine is a country of contrasts."