And if Putin leaves? Operation "Successor" is likely, logical, possible!
Today in Russian political circles there are few who doubt that Vladimir Putin will be nominated by the party "United Russia" for the fourth presidential term. Or he will nominate himself and become the president of Russia for the fourth time. And I propose to speculate: what if the protracted pause with the nomination of a candidate from the party of power is nothing but an attempt to play another “game”? Putin is leaving to come back again. By the way, in this version of the logic even more than in the fourth presidential term in 2018 ...
As we remember, during the last presidential campaign, intrigue left very early. Already at the end of September 2011, the congress of United Russia put forward at the time Prime Minister Vladimir Putin for a third presidential term.
Today is the end of October, and the Kremlin’s decision is gone. Vladimir Putin’s speeches on the margins of the Valdai Discussion Club were awaited for many reasons. Many expected that it was here that the current president of Russia would remove the intrigue about nominating him for a new presidential term, which would immediately become the beginning and the actual end of the election race.
But Vladimir Putin with a smile left the answer and did not even give any hint of what decision he made for himself and the country.
Elections are to be held 18 March 2018 of the year. The Federation Council must decide on the appointment of the presidential election of the Russian Federation no earlier than 100 days and no later than 90 days before that date, after which only 20 days will remain for the official nomination of candidates. It turns out that the decision of the Federation Council will follow between 8 and 18 December 2017 of the year, and the congress of United Russia is tentatively announced for the second decade of December, which pushes the intrigue of the pro-government nomination to the deadline.
Why did the Kremlin decide to keep the intrigue to the last? I would venture to suggest that today the “Successor” scenario is being considered at the top, which allows solving a lot of future problems for the country and for President Putin personally.
Life after Putin
As we understand, Vladimir Putin cannot rule the country forever. Sooner or later he will have to leave, and in Russia the question will arise: what to do next? It is clear that to live, but how? Over the past almost 20 years, everyone has become accustomed to, that Russia has a pivot that can do everything, knows everything, has 20 tricky plans for all occasions, etc.
So easy to live, but until such time as this rod is. And when does it disappear? If the country is ready for this and the mechanism for the actual transfer of power (with the name of the successor) is already developed within the elites, then this change will take place without serious consequences and will not cause the country major problems. This is exactly what every permanent leader of the country who is well aware of the complexity of this transitional moment should be concerned about.
It was then that his many years of work are most at risk, and the duty of any leader is to provide his country with controllability and stability at this crucial moment.
Of course, Vladimir Putin cannot help but attend to this issue. And a very convenient time to begin preparing Russia for this event (albeit remote) may be the presidential election of 2018 of the year.
Little arithmetic
The other day, Vladimir Putin turned 65 years. If you go for another term, then in 71 he will leave the presidency, and everyone will understand that this is forever. So, the maximum in 2023 year in the country inside the elite can begin a real palace war, in which the victor may not be. After all, the enemy does not sleep and will try to use any reason to shake Russia from the inside. And just this option today seems the most promising for them.
If Vladimir Putin is leaving now (again as prime minister), firstly, you can run into the successor, and secondly, in which case there will be a possibility of return, during which the error can be corrected, or, on the contrary, approved the successor will begin to get ready to take matters really.
Thus, theoretically, Vladimir Putin has remained at the helm of Russia for years on 12, which allows him without haste and maximally eliminating the possibility of an error to solve the problem of the successor of his business.
Transitional Problem Solving
This option also makes it possible to quite elegantly and beautifully solve another problem of the Russian authorities. Recent years have clearly shown that Dmitry Medvedev is no good for the role of successor (perhaps never considered). But it is also clear that he is a figure who represents a part of the current Russian elites and is part of some intra-elite agreements. Just to remove him from the post of prime minister means to violate these agreements, which threatens the country with problems.
If the post of prime minister needs to be released under Vladimir Putin, no one will have any questions, and thus it will be possible to try to solve another “problem” of Russia: what to do with the country's third president, who, not being the successor, can then be used to creating lines of division within the Russian elite. And as events of the last decades show, such splits are the most dangerous for the state.
There is a readiness
If you take a closer look, then the Kremlin is ready for Operation Successor. The opposition is marginalized, the state machine is adjusted and every year it works more and more clearly, allowing the “successor” to work in the first years in the mode of maximum comfort. And if any problems arise, Vladimir Putin will be there and be able to solve them.
By the way, considering the option "Successor", you can answer the question asked at the beginning of the article: why Putin is so slow? That's why: the less time left after the nomination, the less the enemy will have time to destroy the applicant's original positive image. By this time, all the programs of the candidates and their struggle tactics will be developed, and there will be no time to rebuild it at the end of December under the new and so far unknown enemy. This will allow the successor to enter into power with a minimal initial negative image and thereby reduce his problems in the future.
In general, while events and logic say that the operation “Successor” in Russia in 2018, is by no means excluded, but on the contrary, is more likely than ever.
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