In the evening of October 5, US President Donald Trump, faithful to his showman tradition, offered America a new show - suddenly during a banquet at the White House with top generals and their wives, he invited journalists to the hall and, with a wide gesture, pointing at his guests, asked reporters: “ Guys, do you understand what this means? ”And he himself answered:“ Perhaps this is the calm before the storm. Here, after all, the greatest warlords of the world are gathered. ” After that, he dismissed all the puzzled questions from journalists with a short phrase “You will see yourself” and sent them away.
And the world began to wonder: to whom Big Donald would bring down its wrath - on the DPRK or Iran?
Trump chose the second - 13 of October, he said that the execution of the six countries (USA, Russia, Great Britain, France, China and Germany) concluded with 2015 with Iran of the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (UFID) on nuclear disarmament is not in the US national interest. And this is despite the fact that not only the IAEA, which performs supervisory functions over the fulfillment by Iran of its obligations, but all the other countries of the Six also declare that the latter has fulfilled all these obligations. However, the president of the United States himself does not dispute this - Trump does not like the treaty itself.
ALL THE GUILTY OF OBAMA
“Obama's stupid actions against Iran are just shocking. Obama made a miserable and very bad deal. Iran will continue to develop nuclear weaponwhile increasing the growth rate of its economy. The main and first goal of America in its relations with Iran should be to nullify the nuclear ambitions of this country ... Let me say this with utmost frankness, because I know how to achieve this goal: Iran’s nuclear program must be stopped - and by any means. Point ”- having formulated this point of view six years ago in his book“ America's past greatness ”, Donald Trump, having come to the White House, was not going to change it. So, on April 19, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson convened a press conference at which he announced that President Trump had instructed the National Security Council to conduct an inter-agency review of US-Iranian relations in 2017.
The task of brainstorming with the participation of relevant ministries and departments is to check whether the nuclear agreement between Tehran and the six world powers meets American national interests. After that, without waiting for the results of this “assault”, Trump proceeded to action. Speaking in May 20 to the leaders of four dozen Muslim countries at the Islamic Summit in Riyadh specially convened by the King of Saudi Arabia Salman, Trump, telling them that “from Lebanon, through Iraq to Yemen, Iran finances, arms and trains terrorists, Shiite militia and other extremist groups ", Called on the summit participants to help King Salman in the formation of an" Arab NATO "and signed with him unprecedented in scale - about $ 450 billion - defense contracts for deliveries during the 10 years of modern naval and armament of missile defense systems to "long-term objective of security of Saudi Arabia and around the Persian Gulf in the light of the threats associated with Iran along the entire perimeter of the Saudi borders."
ARABIC NATO NOT FACED
Alas for Trump - half a year has already passed, and the “Arab NATO” never came to light! On the contrary, trying to force Qatar to take an anti-Iranian position, Riyadh and its allies split the core of their own coalition, the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Persian Gulf (SSGAPZ). Moreover, the verdict of Donald Trump, who sided with Riyadh in this conflict, because “the people of Qatar historically was a sponsor of terrorism at a very high level,” sounded like an insult to Doha - this is Saudi, and not Qatari citizens carried out a terrorist attack on America . So, Doha’s reaction to such hypocrisy was a new rapprochement with Iran and the appearance of rumors about the possible formation of the Tehran – Ankara – Doha axis.
Which, if supported by Russia, could lead to a change in the balance of forces in favor of Iran, not only in Syria, but also in Palestine. That would be an extremely sensitive blow to both Riyadh and Trump himself, whose son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner is now engaged in resolving the Palestinian problem.
Hence the October visit of the Saudi king to Moscow - it is directly tied to the Qatari crisis. Evidence of this is the visits of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on 27 – 30 in August to Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, and then on 9 – 11 in September to Saudi Arabia and Jordan — the visit of the Saudi king to Moscow was agreed on. And immediately after the first series of visits of Lavrov to Saudi King Salman al-Saud, US President Donald Trump phoned. “He called on the monarch to adhere to diplomatic ways to solve the Qatari crisis in order to preserve the unity of the Gulf countries in the fight against terrorism. Trump's words reflect the US concern not only about the rapprochement of Qatar with Iran, but also about the possible formation of the Tehran-Ankara-Doha axis, which will lead to a change in the balance of forces in the region. The point is that the Qatari crisis can pass the point of no return, ”commented Ravil Mustafin, an international journalist, commenting on this call to NG.
It is no secret to anyone that after the Arab spring and the invasion of Bahrain, the Wahhabi Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the Shiite Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) found themselves in a state of cold war. So Trump’s accusations against Iran are only a weak copy of Riyadh’s claims that Iran is implementing a global plan to create a Shiite arc in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Bahrain, Yemen and the Eastern Province of KSA, mostly populated by Shiites.
Other states of the region speak about this Shiite expansion. Here, for example, is an excerpt from an April interview with the Jordanian King Abdullah II to the Washington Post before his meeting with President Trump: “I think Rakka will fall. I think that in Syria and in Iraq things are going well. The only problem is that the militants will move (from Raqqi. - Sh.M.) down to us. In coordination with the United States and Britain, we are ready for it. True, there are some strategic problems because of Iran’s involvement here - divisions of its revolutionary guards are only 70 km away from us and are trying to establish a geographical connection between Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon / Hezbollah with the intention to gain power over this space. I raised this issue with President Putin, he is fully aware of this strategic plan of Iran. We, like the Israelis, were quite frank with him that we would not tolerate non-state formations from outside our borders. I think that we will agree with the Russians. ”
Translated from diplomatic language into Russian, this means that the King of Jordan, like neighboring Israel, was already worried in April by the fact that the defeat of the terrorist Islamic State in Russia would ultimately lead to the territory along the Jordanian and Israeli borders will be under the control of Hezbollah and other Shiite units acting as allies of Assad. The same thing - under whose control Raqqah and the surrounding Sunni territories in the north of Syria will be - extremely worried Turkey.
The American-Saudi project of the “Arab NATO”, apparently, in the case of Moscow’s consent, could answer this question by sending an Arab expeditionary force to Syria. However, this project did not take place, and Washington decided to transfer control of Raqca to the Kurds, not Turkey. As a result, the latter is now fighting on the side of the Russian coalition and is in extremely tense relations with Washington.
The fears of King Abdullah II came true - taking advantage of the fact that the American coalition got bogged down under Rakka, the Syrian army broke into Deir ez-Zor, crossed the Euphrates and is participating in a competitive race with the Kurds for control of the oil and gas fields in this province. While the Shiite militia under cover of the assault of Assad forces in Deir ez-Zor began the construction of a Shiite arc in southern Syria - from the western borders of Iraq to the Lebanese coast of the Mediterranean Sea.
Under no circumstances will the Israelis allow the creation of a so-called Shiite corridor from the western borders of Iran to the Lebanese coast of the Mediterranean, Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman told 8 on September, demonstrating the determination of the Jewish state with its categorical formulations. Nevertheless, the construction of the corridor is underway - a sharp exacerbation of Russian-American relations in the area of the At-Tanfa border point and in the southern de-escalation zone is clear evidence of this.
Thus, on October 11, the Russian Defense Ministry blamed the Pentagon for the possible breakdown of a peace agreement in the southern de-escalation zone in the province of Der'a. The reason for this, according to the Russian military, were "strange coincidences". First, they found vehicles with weapons near the US base in At-Tanfa, which controls the Baghdad-Damascus highway, and then fixed the unimpeded movement of 600 militants from the security zone of the base to abduct humanitarian aid destined for local residents. This American base, says Major General Igor Konashenkov, a representative of the Defense Ministry of the Russian Federation, is "stuck up" with off-road vehicles with large-caliber machine guns and recoilless guns that are "not typical of the United States", but quite typical of radical Islamists. Moreover, according to him, 300 fighters drove out of the same US-controlled zone on pickups to block the Damascus-Deir ez-Zor route, which is used to supply Syrian troops.
And this is not the first claim of the Ministry of Defense. In particular, last week the department said that it was from there that the "mobile groups" of the militants of the "Islamic State" made attacks. He expressed his bewilderment and the Russian Foreign Ministry. On October 11, the North American Department’s Department Director Georgy Borisenko said that the creation of the At-Tanf zone, where “the forces of the legitimate government” are not allowed, reminds of “an attempt to divide the country, divide Syria in order to create authorities on controlled by the United States and its allies. "
However, the position of the Pentagon, these allegations are not affected. His spokesman, Major Adrian Rankin-Galloway, stated that the US-led coalition focused solely on the complete defeat of the Islamic State, adding that it had embarked on the final stage of liberating the “capital” of the radical Islamists in Syrian Raqqah and “any statements that contradict this are groundless.” The problem, however, is that the flight of the igilovs from Raqqa and the use of them by the Americans in At-Tanf to oppose Hezbollah and the Shiite militia is not at all in conflict with each other. Moreover, today, when President Trump ordered sanctions against the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), and the US Treasury Entered the IRGC on the list of international terrorist organizations, such a strategy of Washington can take legal and even interstate form. Since the head of the IRGC, Mohammad Ali Jafari, warned Washington earlier that, as a response to the announcement of the Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, he would, in turn, treat the US Army as much as the Islamic State terrorist group (banned in the Russian Federation).
NO ONE WANTS TO GO TO THE ASSIGNMENT
However, all of this could have been avoided if Donald Trump had followed the advice of Abdullah II, who even then, in April, had suggested that Trump contact Putin and make him some concessions to solve the Syrian crisis. What kind of concessions in question, we read in the April interview, which was discussed above. “From the Russian point of view, they are playing a three-dimensional chess game. For them, Crimea is important, Syria, Ukraine, Libya. It is necessary to deal with the Russians on all these issues at the same time ”, but with the expectation that“ the most important thing for the Russians is the Crimea ”. In other words, it was precisely for the concessions in the Crimea that King Abdullah II expected to receive from Moscow "greater flexibility in Syria." Abdullah II also believed that "Russia's interests in Syria should be ensured by a permanent military presence in" useful Syria ": the area between Damascus, Latakia, Aleppo, Homs and Hama" - and that Asad can "remain in the game" provided that "Moscow and Washington will be able to find ways to tempt Assad to withdraw from Iran in order to leave the rebels alone on a common basis against the jihadists. ” Or, speaking in today's jargon, the main thing he wanted from Russia was to achieve the replacement of Hezbollah and the Shiite militia by the troops of the “Arab NATO”.
The beginning of this process was the signing by Russia, Iran and Turkey on May 6 in Astana of an agreement on the creation of four security zones, where our VKS and the Syrian aviation finally left alone the rebels "on a common basis against the jihadists." The initiator of this agreement was Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had previously agreed on it in a telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump. And in July in Hamburg, an agreement was reached between Trump and Putin to create a new de-escalation zone, in the south-west of Syria, under the guarantee of not the Astana trio, but Russia, the USA. It includes three Syrian provinces along the border with Israel and Jordan - Dera'a, El Quneitra and Essaouida - with a monitoring center for monitoring the ceasefire in Amman. In other words, in meeting the demands of Jordan and Israel, Iran was deprived of a presence and role in restoring order in this border zone.
“It seems that the United States agreed that Assad should remain in power, at least for now. Russia will decide when Assad should leave, and the United States will wait for that day. In exchange, Russia recognized that Iran’s influence in the Middle East should be weakened, ”Turkish Daily Sabah Turkish newspaper commented on the outcome of the Putin-Trump talks. Alas, further between Trump and Putin, the US Congress intervened with his “Sanctions Act to Counteract the Opponents of America”, and the thaw in relations between the United States and Russia was over. Instead, a new round of the Cold War began with a focus in Ukraine.
Right from Hamburg, a day after the talks between Putin and Trump, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson flew to Kiev. It was his first state visit to Ukraine, and he brought with him and presented to the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko a new US Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Walker, saying that Washington would look for ways to get the process off the ground.
At the joint press conference, the head of the State Department said: "We are disappointed with the lack of progress under the Minsk agreements, that is why we have appointed a special representative." He also added that the United States intends to coordinate with the "Norman Quartet" to find opportunities to contribute to progress in resolving the conflict. In principle, this US involvement in the negotiations on Ukraine, made under the May agreement between Lavrov and Tillerson, was a necessary condition for the parties to coordinate their concessions on Syria and Ukraine. However, for some reason, perhaps due to the pressure of Congress, Tillerson chose a very tough negotiator - in his testimony at the hearings of the Senate Committee on International Relations 7 on April 2017, Volker called on the administration of Donald Trump to counteract the challenges thrown to the West by Moscow: “Russia is trying destroy the order established after the Cold War in Europe, changing borders and using military force. Russian troops occupied part of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, and, brazenly demonstrating force, Russia simply annexed the Crimean Peninsula. ”
Therefore, it is not surprising that the entire summer of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine was behind the scenes preparing a new draft law on the reintegration of Donbass, in which it prescribed Russia's definition as an aggressor, and determined Ukraine’s actions not as an antiterrorist operation, but as a state self-defense. What gives the president of Ukraine the opportunity to send troops to the Donbass for an indefinite period by his own decree, declare a state of emergency or martial law there, etc.
The moment of truth came on September 5, when Moscow, deciding to take the lead, took a step towards Kiev, agreed to introduce foreign peacekeepers to the Donbas zone and submitted its draft resolution on this topic to the UN Security Council. Kiev immediately rejected it and promised to submit its draft resolution to the UN General Assembly on September 9th. The mountain gave birth to a mouse - Poroshenko did not dare to submit a Turchynov project to the UN discussion. The reason for this, judging by the heated debates of the parties in the Verkhovna Rada and the press, is that the new law allows the Ukrainian Armed Forces to cover the same “Croatian scenario” in the Donbas as the Croats did with regard to Serbian Krajina — Don’ts deploy peacekeepers not on the front line (Volker objected to this), but on the border of Russia and Ukraine (Kiev demanded this). It is clear that Moscow immediately rejected this law, and accordingly it is already impossible to pass it through the UN Security Council. So now Volker and Surkov are looking for a compromise option in Ukraine.
Accordingly, all this time, Russia strongly supported the offensive of the Syrian army and Hezbollah in Syria, which inevitably ruined Russian-American cooperation in this country. Until finally, Trump could not resist and did not declare his own war against the IRGC. It seems, however, that, having gone too far with Ukraine, he will now be late in Syria - now the igilovtsy do not even think about winning, they either become shahids, or run abroad. And there is no one else for Washington to rely on to fight the Iranians - “Arab NATO” does not exist now even on paper. So he will not be able to return Syria, but Washington can maintain a “controlled chaos” if he wants, for a long time. Since the collapse of the ADHD and the “loss of face” by President Rouhani will certainly untie the hands of not only American but also Iranian “hawks” in politics.
"Epochal" called the meeting of Putin with the Saudi monarch Russian Foreign Ministry. Formally, the first state visit of the King of Saudi Arabia to Russia over 90 years of the kingdom’s existence, and accompanied by more than a thousand courtiers, is true for Russian-Saudi relations. In addition, as a result of the visit, it was decided that the state oil monopoly Saudi Aramco, in order to reduce global oil reserves and stimulate demand, will reduce the export of oil by 560 thousand barrels next month. oil per day.
Considering that Russia and Saudi Arabia are the world's largest oil producers, but at the same time, Saudi Arabia, linked to the US by a tacit agreement "oil for safety", until November last year spoke in the field of global oil policy if not as a direct enemy , but very close to this, now - and this was confirmed by the visit of the Saudi king - we are starting to act in this extremely important area for regulating not only our, but also the world economy, as allies. The reason is quite objective, since we have a common enemy with the Saudis - American shale hydrocarbons. And besides, the United States has practically lost to Syria Russia. As a result, Riyadh also aroused interest in Russian weapons: following the talks in Moscow, principal agreements were reached on the purchase by Saudi Arabia of the Triumph C-400 anti-aircraft missile systems. In addition, the parties also signed a contract to organize the production of Kalashnikov assault rifles in Saudi Arabia and signed a memorandum on the purchase and localization of TOS-1A heavy flamethrower systems, Kornet-EM anti-tank missiles and AGS-30 grenade launchers.
But even this visit of the Saudi king and his generous promises to Moscow could not solve the main strategic problem of the American-Saudi coalition and Israel that joined it - Moscow remained loyal to the alliance with Bashar Assad and Iran in Syria. Nevertheless, this visit can play an epochal role in the Middle East policy: the civil war in Syria is almost over, and as Russian President Vladimir Putin said on October 9, “the world community should already think about the post-war reconstruction of Syria”.
The question, however, is who will pay for this restoration. Since the responsibility for the fact that a civil war began in Syria, they bear, on the one hand, the Syrian authorities, on the other - those who provoked the Syrian opposition to armed resistance. Therefore, "the main burden of responsibility for the post-war reconstruction of Syria should be borne" by the very Western countries that once undertook to democratize the large Middle East, said Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the committee of the Federation Council on international affairs, the next day.
The opinion, to put it mildly, is not quite adequate - only a very naive person can hope that Trump or Western Europe will finance the dictatorial regime of Assad in Syria. Especially since Assad is not going to ask them about it: “First of all, they will have to ask for forgiveness from the Syrian people. Then the Syrian people will have to accept their apologies. After that, they will have to apologize to their own people. And finally, they should be held accountable during political elections ”- such conditions for obtaining contracts for restoration were put forward by the Syrian Minister of Economy and Trade Adib Majle to all countries opposed to the regime.
Demagogy, of course, but in any case, before the world community thinks about the restoration of Syria, the Arab world must think about this. As long as their hybrid wars in Syria against the Assad regime and Iran are not stopped, neither the restoration of the country nor its reintegration into the Arab world is possible. And first of all, Saudi Arabia and the ETSGPZ headed by it - those 450 billion that the Saudis laid out to 20 in May as part of the “Arab NATO” program should have thought about it, because here and now the required amount is estimated at 200 – 350 billion dollars. And then the BRICS countries will join - China, for example, with its project of the Silk Road was ready for this yesterday. However, today, after the Trumpian “calm before the storm” is about to be replaced by the Iranian storm, even China will think three times.
After losing to Syria, Trump switched to Iran
- Shamsudin Mamaev