Military Review

Turkish throwing

24



It is safe to say that Turkey’s political activity and ambitions have grown significantly in recent years. Should I list all those news reports summarizing either ambitious statements by Turkish politicians or events related to this state? The current ruling circles of Turkey are not satisfied with the situation, the influence and the political opportunities that they have. They really want more.

Not so long ago, Turkey tried to satisfy its geopolitical ambitions due to the chaos, which was formed as a result of the “Arab Spring” and the activities of terrorist organizations, which significantly strengthened after this “spring”. Russia's military-political interference in Syrian affairs has frustrated the predatory plans of the Turkish leadership. But Turkey did not abandon these plans. Turkey is still trying to survive the most out of the ongoing war in Syria, but given the new circumstances, which strongly restrain its appetites. For example, the same input of troops and the formation of bases in the Syrian province of Idlib. Despite the fact that Ankara refers to the agreements on the creation of de-escalation zones concluded in Astana, the Syrian government called this step "the invasion of Turkish troops", demanding their withdrawal.

What contributed to the growth of these ambitions?

The issue of Turkey’s accession to the EU has been for many years, but, as they say, it's still there. Europe does not want to see Turkey as a member of its Union. Leaders of countries such as Germany, France, Austria have repeatedly spoken against this entry. However, lately, Turkey’s desire to join the EU has significantly decreased. Although the issue has not yet been officially closed, Erdogan has repeatedly stated that the enthusiasm to resolve this issue in Turkey has died away. Literally, 1 of October was told to them that: “We no longer need membership in the European Union,” and also: “We would be happy to make our contribution to the future of Europe,” Erdogan said. - If this does not happen, it does not matter to us. We will continue on our own path. ” In the 2015 year, then still the vice-premier of Turkey, B. Arinc, noted that the percentage of citizens for joining the EU decreased from 75% to 20%.

In general, the prospect of joining the EU, which has been Turkey’s goal for more than a decade, is melting away. So Turkey is trying to find its own way. And for this we need an ideology that would set strategic goals.

There are two ideological alternatives, Western European Turkey, which never became a reality. This is neo-Ottomanism (neo-Islamism) and Pan-Turkism, both of these concepts refer to the past, to the times of the Ottoman Empire and the Turkic kaganates. Supporters of neo-Ottomanism need to Islamize society. The Ottoman Empire positioned itself nevertheless as the last caliphate. And the followers of Pan-Turkism should stir up the people with the dream of the Great Turan, that is, the political union of the Turkic-speaking peoples. Neo-Ottomanism and Pan-Turkism are behind such powerful social structures as Turkish Sufi takrikats and the notorious organization Gray Wolves. Erdogan and his entourage are representatives of neo-Ottomanism.

But one thing - Turkish ambitions, dreams. Another is the possibility of their implementation. If we recall the comparison of chess with geopolitics, then we can formulate the question like this: where are those free cells, where could Turkey go? And it turns out that there are no free cells around, they are all occupied by other powers.

How much can Turkey expand its influence in a southwesterly direction from its borders? Yes, once present-day Turkey was the center of the Ottoman Empire, which in turn was a caliphate. The title of Caliph the Ottoman sultans intercepted from the rulers of the Mamelukes, defeating them. Huge territories with the Arab population were part of the Ottoman Empire. But today such Arab states as Egypt and especially Saudi Arabia are unlikely to want to be the second violin in the Turkish game. Surely, they will restrain the expansion of Turkish influence. Saudi Arabia has no less ambitions, military and political opportunities.

There is another country in the Middle East, comparable to Turkey in terms of population, economy, military potential - Iran. History their relationship is not very simple, and any expansion of Turkey’s influence is unlikely to be applauded in Iran. And for the same Iran, it does not matter under what banner (neo-Ottomanism or Pan-Turkism) this expansion will be proclaimed. Once the Turkic Kaganates expanded rapidly, uniting vast steppe expanses with nomads, and later struck the neighboring powers of the sedentary population. Where are now such loose territories (spaces) - that is, not filled cells? In the Caucasus, Central Asia, in the Volga region there is either Russia, or the interests of Iran and even China. Not to mention that the national states of the Caucasus and Central Asia themselves have their own goals and hardly want to recognize Turkish Pan-Turkism together with the Turkish leadership. Take at least Azerbaijan. Despite certain overtures to Turkey, Azerbaijan still can’t jeopardize relations with Russia and Iran, with which it borders, and has close economic, cultural and ethnic ties.

In this context, a proverb is appropriate - do not throw it, everywhere there is a wedge. It is likely that in the medium term, Turkey will continue to rush between the United States, Europe, Russia, the Arab East and the Turkic-speaking countries, trying to at least somehow satisfy the growing ambitions. Consequences of all these Turkish throwings will be contradictory statements and actions of the Turkish leadership, which we will observe until some tectonic shifts occur on the international arena.

We can say that Turkey is now reminiscent of a boiling pot with a lid. The cover is held back by geopolitical circumstances. But sometimes the internal pressure lifts her slightly, and a jet of hot steam erupts from it in the form of some harsh statements or adventurous actions by the Turkish leadership.
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  1. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 19 October 2017 05: 57
    +1
    You’ll chase two hares ..... and there’s more. So they will stand on a common door with an open mouth. Until Erdagan is replaced.
    1. iouris
      iouris 19 October 2017 12: 03
      +1
      Quote: Mavrikiy
      You’ll chase two hares ..... and there’s more.

      Yes, there are no hares, it's all mirages in the desert. Real hares "Mow the tryn grass." We do not care.
    2. xetai9977
      xetai9977 19 October 2017 13: 13
      0
      The author is not in the subject from the word absolutely! This is exactly the opposite. Erdogan is not a pan-Turkist from the word absolutely! He is a pan-Islamist with a curtsy in the direction of pan-Arabism. That is, he is ready to protect Arabs everywhere, up to Somalia, is ready to help the Rohingya in Bangladesh, but is not ready to support the Turkmens in Syria and Iraq. No, he seems to speak with words of support, gives hope, but in reality does not do even a tenth of what he could do. Many in the Turkic countries, including Turkey itself, have long been aware of this.
      1. Titsen
        Titsen 19 October 2017 13: 39
        0
        Quote: xetai9977
        The author is not in the subject from the word absolutely! This is exactly the opposite. Erdogan is not a pan-Turkist from the word absolutely! He is a pan-Islamist with a curtsy in the direction of pan-Arabism. That is, he is ready to protect Arabs everywhere, up to Somalia, is ready to help the Rohingya in Bangladesh, but is not ready to support the Turkmens in Syria and Iraq. No, he seems to speak with words of support, gives hope, but in reality does not do even a tenth of what he could do. Many in the Turkic countries, including Turkey itself, have long been aware of this.


        Does Erdogan himself know?

        And the Tomato Folder will take offense at you and will throw tomatoes!
  2. captain
    captain 19 October 2017 07: 20
    11
    Let them rush around, this is their right. We ourselves are rushing between Europe and China. We are offended that the United States calls us a regional power. We are doing our best to prove that we are a great power, while our “elite” is holding money in the USA, we are buying up US government bonds and are clearly not going to oppose their rudeness in relation to our country.
  3. XII Legion
    XII Legion 19 October 2017 07: 48
    18
    It can be said that Turkey now resembles a boiling pot with a lid

    God willing - covered with a copper basin
    1. xetai9977
      xetai9977 19 October 2017 13: 15
      +1
      "covered with a copper basin"
      And do not hope. Turkey has been "buried" for centuries. And everything came out zilch. Turkey is stronger than ever.
      1. Titsen
        Titsen 19 October 2017 13: 40
        0
        Quote: xetai9977
        Turkey is stronger than ever.


        The main thing is that we had tanks fast.

        And the rockets flew well!
  4. Stas157
    Stas157 19 October 2017 08: 22
    +9
    Russia does not need a strong Turkey. Turkey is a geopolitical adversary who has always played against Russia. More recently, there was a wonderful moment, the opportunity to throw off Erdogan, and unleash a civil war in Turkey, play the Kurdish card. But, instead, Moscow turned Erdogan’s friendly shoulder and even launched him into Syria! Erdogan is very strengthened, now beating the Kurds at distant approaches. His power is harder than ever. And in relation to Russia, he is not very glowing with gratitude! Announces sanctions, bans on transportation (from the Crimea) and the supply of food to Russia. Putin himself has to travel to Ankara to negotiate. For some reason, the Kremlin decided that Turkey is our ally and travel companion. But for how long? Not sure. Turkey is profitable so far to build a policy with Russia. But, striking in the back once, can stab in the back twice. The wrong horse was put in the Kremlin. Instead of Turkey, it was necessary to build relations with Iran. Strong Iran is more advantageous for Russia than strong Turkey at hand.
    1. chenia
      chenia 19 October 2017 09: 00
      +3
      Quote: Stas157
      Russia does not need a strong Turkey.


      That's right, and the creation of an independent Kurdistan is in our interests.

      Quote: Stas157
      Instead of Turkey, it was necessary to build relations with Iran. Strong Iran is more advantageous for Russia than strong Turkey at hand.


      Turkey and Iran have two boots of steam (both on occasion will hit in the back).

      And Russia takes a favorable position, everyone needs it there.
      And she reached her goals
      - saved the base
      - Influence and authority confirmed
      - tested and advertised weapons ..
    2. ukoft
      ukoft 19 October 2017 09: 26
      +2
      it’s good that people in Russia are not led by people like you.
      Did you know that Lenin supported the Ataturk? did you know why? to restrain possible Western aggression on advice. he succeeded.
      With the departure of Erdogan in Turkey, there are liberals, nationalists, military and others. what is better for Russia in the Kremlin know better than you really believe.
      there are no backstabs in real politicians, just like there are no friends. there are opportunities and interests. not more
      1. Stas157
        Stas157 19 October 2017 09: 38
        +4
        Quote: ukoft
        Did you know that Lenin supported the Ataturk?

        They knew. And the Turks, as usual, responded with black ingratitude, becoming Hitler's allies in WW2. And they were preparing to declare war on the USSR, if not for the defeat of the Germans in Stalingrad. But Ataturk probably would not have resisted the Western countries, if the untimely assistance of the Soviet Union. We love to help those who, after this, hit us in the back!
        1. ukoft
          ukoft 19 October 2017 10: 11
          0
          you either do not know or intentionally omit some facts. so at the end of 30, Stalin began to crush the Turks in the straits and eastern territories of Turkey and threatened. where did they go? wait until the councils occupy the straits and eastern turkey? with the support of the West, these agreements were confirmed even after the death of Stalin.

          so who is hitting someone in the back is still a big question. yes and no such thing in politics
          1. Stas157
            Stas157 19 October 2017 11: 15
            +4
            Quote: ukoft
            you either do not know or intentionally omit some facts. so at the end of 30, Stalin began to crush the Turks in the straits and eastern territories of Turkey and threatened.

            What was this expressed in? What crushed that? Are there facts, or is it at the gossip level?
            1. ukoft
              ukoft 19 October 2017 12: 00
              0
              Well, you need to know this generally look on the Internet:

              Territorial claims of the USSR to Turkey
      2. alatanas
        alatanas 19 October 2017 11: 05
        +1
        Lenin supported the Ataturk

        because he promised to build socialism. Stalin realized that this would not happen and ceased to support. Flirting with the Turks is Putin’s response to all sorts of flirting the United States. But for the time being - for the time being.
        1. ukoft
          ukoft 19 October 2017 12: 07
          0
          It's not about socialism. from the very beginning everyone knew that he was a nationalist.
          just wanted to hide from this direction from the west. know the story not to write nonsense
          1. alatanas
            alatanas 19 October 2017 14: 18
            0
            You read it, but more!
      3. chenia
        chenia 19 October 2017 18: 12
        +2
        Quote: ukoft
        Did you know that Lenin supported the Ataturk?


        This is a mistake. Then this came back to us. By the way, the Caribbean crisis has Turkish roots.
    3. vvv-73
      vvv-73 19 October 2017 09: 34
      +2
      That's it, and why do we need a pro-American protege in Turkey in whose favor there was a coup? Because Erdogan and supported. He, though, but who no longer makes friends with mattresses, will remember how they attempted him.
    4. Dart2027
      Dart2027 19 October 2017 19: 41
      +1
      Quote: Stas157
      More recently, there was a wonderful moment, the opportunity to throw off Erdogan, and unleash a civil war in Turkey, play the Kurdish card

      The coup in Turkey was, if not organized, then at least blessed in the USA, further explain? Erdogan is certainly not an angel, to put it mildly, but he has one virtue - he really is trying to pursue his own policy, which means that you can at least somehow negotiate, and any talk with US creatures is, in principle, useless.
  5. Karen
    Karen 19 October 2017 12: 59
    0
    Everyone remembers the scale of Russian investments in Turkey that opened after tomato hype?
    This was the legacy of the true Jew Primakov, directing the entire vector of foreign policy actions of the Russian Federation to the glory of the sons of Israel. Who now do not know for him.
  6. Titsen
    Titsen 19 October 2017 13: 46
    0
    Quote: vvv-73
    That's it, and why do we need a pro-American protege in Turkey in whose favor there was a coup? Because Erdogan and supported. He, though, but who no longer makes friends with mattresses, will remember how they attempted him.


    Do not worry - make friends!

    And then it will be friends.

    And then make friends again!

    And so to infinity the number of times!

    POLITICS....
  7. SMP
    SMP 21 October 2017 20: 39
    0
    There is another country in the Middle East comparable with Turkey in terms of population, economy, and military potential - Iran. The history of their relationship is not simple and any expansion of Turkish influence is unlikely to be greeted with applause in Iran.


    In addition to expanding towards Israel, for having touched history, the author has too diplomatically sidestepped the side of the Crusades and the battles for Jerusalem,

    according to this, Israel is also rushing about, since the revival of the Ottomans and energy independence from the Saudis in the form of a gas pipeline from Russia create many free cells in geopolitics, as the author wrote.