Is Israel a step away from showing the presence of a nuclear “suitcase”?
From official reports and press releases:
From the final joint statement of Sergei Shoigu and Benjamin Netanyahu:
Sergei Shoigu visited the Yad Vashem Museum and welcomed the law passed in Israel on giving 9 May official holiday status.
Official statistics, as usual, is dry, and in such cases it is not customary to go out to the public with statements that sounded at least some real concrete specifics about what exactly is meant by "cooperation in the military and military-technical spheres" Moscow and Jerusalem.
Clearly, it was about Syria. Understandably, talked about security issues in the Middle East. But it is precisely the details that worry the audience interested in the real accession of peace in the Middle East land both in Russia and in Israel.
As soon as the visit of Sergei Shoigu to Israel was over, publications appeared in a number of Middle Eastern media in which the main details of negotiations between representatives of the Russian delegation and Israeli partners were announced. Thus, the Arabic-language Al-Shark al-Ausat publishes the most substantive material, which states that the discussion of the Syrian issue was reduced to taking into account the concerns of the Israeli authorities about the activity of Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Israel’s attitude to one and another structure is well known. Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has been recognized in the United States just a few days ago.
The Israeli side, according to the publications in the aforementioned and some other media, has informed Sergei Shoigu that she is ready to continue attacking Syrian territory if Hezbollah and the IRGC continue to move closer to Israeli borders. At the same time, in Israel, the issue of belonging to the Golan Heights is considered finally resolved and, speaking of their borders, they have in mind the line that is drawn on this territory by Israel itself.
So here. The Israeli proposal boils down to the following: no strikes on the territory of the SAR in exchange for the fact that the buffer zone, in which there is no Hezbollah and the IRGC, will be increased to 40 km - from the Syrian side. Why exactly 40 km? The main reason for the weapons mentioned paramilitary structures. Four dozen kilometers of the buffer can become a certain protection “in range” from the use of, for example, multiple rocket launcher systems or unguided rockets.
The media stated that Sergei Shoigu allegedly did not accept the proposal in this form, but offered the option of increasing the buffer zone from five to 10-15 km. It seems like they decided on that. Sergey Kuzhugetovich went back to Moscow.
Immediately after the minister returned to Russia, the already mentioned head of the Israeli Cabinet, Benjamin Netanyahu, phoned the President of the Russian Federation. The Kremlin’s press service reported that Israeli partners had raised the issue of the so-called Iranian nuclear program, the consequences of the Kurdish referendum in Iraq and the settlement issues in Syria.
All of these topics have a common component. And here it is Iran. The fact is that recently there has been a clear warming of Iraqi-Iranian relations. Despite the fact that Iraqi troops are part of the American coalition, this does not prevent them from conducting military maneuvers jointly with Iranian units. Moreover, according to Kurdish media reports, the units of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps carried out simultaneous advancements with Iraqi troops towards Kirkuk. As soon as Kirkuk was “taken”, Kurdish sources said that part of the oil fields near this city came under the control of the IRGC.
For obvious reasons, the Israeli leadership, to put it mildly, is thrilling to watch how the forces associated with the country, which in the region regards as its almost primary enemy, are clearly strengthening their positions in the states located one way or another in the neighborhood. In Lebanon, Hezbollah "(According to the statements of Israel itself) actually merged with the regular army, in Syria it, together with the IRGC, occupies more and more territories (exempts from ISIL (banned in the Russian Federation)), in Iraqi Kurdistan the IRGC takes control of the oil fields, Iran itself can so get out of the "nuclear" deal after verbal US president Donald Trump exercises. And then there is Turkey, whose president announced that the Kurdish referendum was the work of supposedly Israeli security services.
In general, people in Israel are smart, and therefore they understand that if things develop in the manner in which it is developing now, then Israel will have to get from its long closet that very nuclear bomb that it hides from everyone. Get and show ... And, by and large, Israel understands that the refusal to negotiate can lead to really bad consequences. Trump's hope is, frankly, not the greatest. He increasingly lives in the monetary dimension, and in order to prove something, it is necessary to translate “from fingers” from shekels into dollars and back. And for translation, by and large, Israel does not have much time, especially when you consider that Israel itself is itself Iran, Hezbollah and the IRGC is cruel.
Bombing to the right and left, covering the territory of the same Syria, as happened a few hours before the visit of Sergei Shoigu to Israel, is also somehow doubtful when referring to the fact that Israel’s friends in the region will definitely not add.
That is why the exit is searched for the compromise. Israel wants to receive guarantees that it will not be necessary to uncover and demonstrate to the city and the world its hidden nuclear potential in the sands. Who can give such guarantees? At the very least, who can set up work to find a broad compromise in the region? Well, not the United States, for whom the very concept of “sober diplomacy” ceased to exist as early as the year of the collapse of the Soviet Union, as unnecessary to agree with anyone about anything. But Russia is quite an option. Troika "Russia, Turkey, Iran" in Syria are already working and very successfully. With Qatar, relations with Russia began to warm up very sharply after the obstruction of Qatar by a number of Islamic states and the desire of the Qatari authorities to enlist Russian support. Kings of Jordan and Saudi Arabia visited Moscow. Assad, who “must leave, but does not leave,” with the support of the Russian Federation, is successfully working to return civilian life to the country.
And what if Israel to join the process? Having rejected all kinds of “this is not in the interests”, “we don’t talk to the terrorist states”, “point one: Israel is right, and if it’s not right, see point one” and so on and so forth.
In general, a broad coalition - and what? but what if...
And if the coalition, then against whom then fight in the region? So the point is that if the coalition is real, then there will be no fight against anyone and there’s no need ...
You say: utopia? .. But after all, the appearance of Israel itself on the world map was once considered utopia. And if you remember, thanks to whom the “historical” utopia suddenly became a reality ... In Israel, by the way, they perfectly remember.
- Alexei Volodin
- function.mil.ru
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