Military Review

Trouble sign

26
Trouble signThe greatest achievement of Petr Poroshenko in Strasbourg, where he explained to PACE deputies for about an hour the leading role and lasting importance of Ukraine for the modern world in general and European civilization in particular, was the resolution of the Parliamentary Assembly, effectively prohibiting the extension of the year 2018 sanctions against the Russian parliamentary delegation. If until that time any of the current crises did not turn into a serious war, then in January of 2018, the process of lifting European sanctions from Russia will start.


Before the lifting of economic sanctions, of course, still far away. Moreover, at the Eastern Partnership Summit (November 24 in Brussels), globalists will try to launch a counterattack. But as a whole, the European political trend in the Russian direction was determined and now only a war in which the EU and Russia will find themselves on opposite sides of the front line can really break it.

And the credit for Poroshenko personally, as well as the entire Ukrainian regime, in this change of European trend should not be underestimated. People did everything they could. Of course, European hankering also played its part - from 2017, after two years of threats, Russia stopped paying its contribution to the maintenance of PACE, depriving 10% of the budget of the assembly.

But on economic sanctions, the EU is losing more - the total losses have already exceeded over a hundred billion dollars and continue to increase, but they are not canceled yet, even though they are already seriously discussing this possibility.

As we see in some cases, mercantile Europe is ready to go to the principle and sacrifice more (even for it) money, in order to achieve its political goals (Europeans call this process “protection of ideals”). And Europe was losing money, but supported Ukraine for three years. And now everything has changed.

So, as at the PACE meeting the Europeans mocked Poroshenko, they did not even behave in relation to the Russian delegation even in the worst of times. Pyotr Alekseevich was remembered as the infringement of the rights of national minorities, and corruption, and even the failure to comply with the Minsk agreements. Moreover, the deputies attacked the holy - to the Crimea. And they asked Poroshenko whether he would be ready to recognize the results of the repeated referendum if he confirmed Crimea’s desire to remain Russian.

Taking into account that literally on the eve of Poroshenko’s speech at the PACE session, Czech President Milos Zeman suggested simply paying Ukraine a relatively small amount for the Crimea (and not with cash, but energy supplies), this is the second European stability sounding of the Ukrainian position in Crimea. Such coincidences are not random. Europe needs to find a solution to the Crimean problem that would allow the EU to recognize Crimea as Russian, while retaining its face. So the ideas of redemption, re-referendum are thrown (the result of which in the EU is beyond doubt).

The issue of Crimea will be solved - the EU will not have a reason to maintain sanctions. It is possible to “see” that it is Ukraine that breaks the Minsk agreements at any time. Moreover, the EU has already begun to notice it. Well, if it is Kiev that is disrupting the settlement process in the Donbass, then the sanctions should be imposed against it, and removed from Russia.

Thus, revolted Hungarians, Romanians, Moldovans, Poles and Slovaks novels in the law on education, depriving national minorities of the right to study in their native language, served PACE only as a reason to change course in the Ukrainian crisis. Moreover, the questions devoted to Minsk and Crimea indicate that the ground is being prepared for further, more radical, actions leading to a final and irrevocable review of the policy towards Ukraine and Russia.

It should be understood that the decisive role in Europe’s decision to revise Ukrainian policy was not the fact that Rada and the President supported the latest laws that revolted some Eastern European members of the EU (Ukraine had already allowed itself attacks against national minorities), and also calling into question the continuation of Minsk process. The main stimulant was Europe’s awareness of Ukraine’s critical weakness and the president’s loss of leverage over the situation in the country.

In fact, the Ukrainian Nazis again pushed the laws of February 23 from 2014, abolishing the linguistic rights of national minorities, but a week later canceled themselves. Only now the prohibitions have been carried out in a much tougher form and without the presence of machine gunners in the Rada, who were monitoring the “correctness” of the deputies ’voting during the February 2014 coup. They pushed through in the first reading a bill on the reintegration of Donbass, in effect obliging the Kiev authorities to abandon the Minsk world and move on to an attempt to force the return of the DPR / LPR. The law will be passed, since it is already supported by the majority of the Rada, and it was introduced by the president.

The EU is not so outraged by the fact of adopting xenophobic and provocative laws - Europeans often met with minor troubles of this kind when interacting with African regimes from their former colonies and learned how to overcome them philosophically. Europeans are dissatisfied with the internal weakness of the Ukrainian authorities, who are forced to dance to the tune of radical nationalists. Moreover, the EU would have increased the Nazis and swallowed it (it used to swallow it before), but Europe clearly shows that concessions to the radicals do not improve Poroshenko’s position, but worsen it, do not stabilize the situation, but lead to further destabilization.

What is the point of losing money and markets, if the client, for the sake of which all this is being done, is still not a tenant? Europe sees no opportunity to save Ukraine either with Poroshenko at the head, or with any of his potential successors. Europe needs good relations with Russia at a time when the Ukrainian bomb will jerk and it will be necessary to decide what to do with a huge political and economic black hole in the heart of Europe, filled to the eyeballs weaponscontrolled by warring gangs and constantly throwing new millions of economic and political refugees into the EU and Russia. The fate of the hole itself, its population and leaders, Europeans are only interested in so far as they can hurt their interests.

Thus, the last session of the PACE signified the arrival of troubles for Ukraine and for Poroshenko personally, threatening to turn into a catastrophe. Following the US, the EU clearly distanced itself from Ukraine and refused to support Poroshenko. Moreover, if the United States at least simply forgot about Ukraine, dropping all of its Ukrainian policy on Volcker and Jovanovic, the EU makes demands. These requirements for the Ukrainian government in its current state are impracticable.

The situation is a mirror reflection of what was happening with Yanukovych when he tried to explain to Europe that he was not refusing an association agreement, but just wanted to get money (15 billion euros) that would have dampened the economic problems in the first year and allow Yanukovych to be re-elected for a second term. Yanukovych also tried to convince Europe that the Nazis were in charge of the Independence Square. Europe did not want to understand and see all this. She then had other priorities.

Poroshenko is now explaining to the EU that if he loses the support of the West, he will not sit in the presidency not like before the elections, but even until the end of the year. That his overthrow will signify the collapse of Ukraine - only lazy does not speak about this. And that in the end, according to the results of this collapse, Russia will regain control over the western part of the post-Soviet space. Europe does not want to hear and understand. She knows all that already. She has other priorities.

Destroy Russia failed. Ukrainian log failed to work as a ram - turned out to be too rotten. Ukraine was also unable to forge, stretch and absorb Russian resources. Russia was not distracted from the key battle of the war - in Syria, and already practically won it.

Now the fate of Ukraine means nothing to the EU. It is even impossible to exchange it with Russia for something sensible, because the central government is too weak - it cannot ensure the fulfillment of the agreements. Therefore it is necessary to be friends with Russia. There is money, markets, economic and military power.

And Ukraine? And what about Ukraine? Hunted horses are shot. But the EU does not want to spend money on ammunition. Itself will die, and Europe does not deserve to alleviate its suffering.
That's all Poroshenko said in Strasbourg in the bird language PACE deputies. If he were able to understand this, he would quickly surrender power (or simply throw it away) and try to hide in the same Europe (after bargaining for asylum for himself). But he did not understand and could not understand. He is like a shaman, whose spells have ceased to act, waiting for trouble, but hopes for a miracle.

We will not disturb him.
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26 comments
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  1. Selevc
    Selevc 17 October 2017 15: 24 New
    +2
    That his overthrow will mark the collapse of Ukraine - only the lazy one does not say this
    Does anyone say anything? Do you think Joseph Vissarionovich was a fool creating a huge buffer state south-west of the RSFSR? Do you think that, for example, Psheks get western Ukraine calm down? Whatever the case !!! In my opinion, the opposite is true - a complete division of Ukraine will only strengthen and inspire all European Russophobes and other Slavophobes ... If the east is crumbling, then why not crush it further and further?
    1. seti
      seti 17 October 2017 16: 11 New
      +2
      May God grant Ishchenko to be right and not wishful thinking. But everything will be decided at the junction of 19-20 years or a little later.
      1. Akuzenka
        Akuzenka 20 October 2017 11: 12 New
        0
        I think before. Otherwise, they would not have launched the Mishiko project right now.
  2. NIKNN
    NIKNN 17 October 2017 15: 25 New
    +4
    PACE and
    actually prohibiting the extension of sanctions against the Russian parliamentary delegation for 2018.
    Well, somehow it didn’t please ... PACE is like a curse to me ...
  3. Catherine II
    Catherine II 17 October 2017 16: 07 New
    +2
    Therefore it is necessary to be friends with Russia. There is money, ryНki, economic and military power.
    interesting for whom Rostislav (former Ukrainian) is trying to convey this?
    And how can all this be ensured by the Russian Federation if its share in the world is small. And there is no money, only the mood. The market is also not rubber. Yes, and the Russian Federation itself goes in the wake of the gendarme.
    1. Good Zsul
      Good Zsul 17 October 2017 16: 35 New
      +7
      Better to be a gendarme than how you are - Tolerasts in life
      I if that, from the LPR
      1. Mavrikiy
        Mavrikiy 18 October 2017 06: 15 New
        +1
        Quote: Good Zusul
        Better to be a gendarme than how you are - Tolerasts in life
        I if that, from the LPR

        Walking in the wake of the gendarme and being a gendarme is not the same thing, distinguish.
        Yes and not very we go in the fairway. Although our market is not large, Europe is actively fighting for it. But the umbrella from our aircraft interests everyone more and more.
    2. BAI
      BAI 17 October 2017 17: 54 New
      +2
      Therefore, it is necessary to be friends with Russia. There is money, markets, economic and military power.

      What is wrong here? Especially if you compare with Ukraine and choose with whom to cooperate.
  4. Aspid 57
    Aspid 57 17 October 2017 17: 01 New
    +1
    Russia did not win in Syria! By the majority of the population - the Alawite Assad will not rule the Sunnis for a long time! Russia shot and bombed ISIS to stop its rooting, followed by relocation and massacre in Central Asia! Well, and as a result, tens of millions of refugees to Russia. This could turn into an economic disaster! And what further in Syria itself will be known to Allah alone! Nobody will give water to secular gangs of Russia! Trump will run out of patience and he will simply spread all the Assad administrative and military command bodies with Tomahawks! IRGC and Hezbollah will not be forgotten either! Russian facilities, of course, will not be touched, but there will be nobody to save Russia! They simply put Moscow before the fact, just as Moscow Washington regularly puts in the Crimea, in Georgia, in the same Syria!
    1. Nyrobsky
      Nyrobsky 17 October 2017 23: 23 New
      0
      Quote: Aspid 57
      Russia did not win in Syria! By the majority of the population - the Alawite Assad will not rule the Sunnis for a long time! Russia shot and bombed ISIS to stop its rooting, followed by relocation and massacre in Central Asia! Well, and as a result, tens of millions of refugees to Russia. This could turn into an economic disaster! And what further in Syria itself will be known to Allah alone! Nobody will give water to secular gangs of Russia! Trump will run out of patience and he will simply spread all the Assad administrative and military command bodies with Tomahawks! IRGC and Hezbollah will not be forgotten either! Russian facilities, of course, will not be touched, but there will be nobody to save Russia! They simply put Moscow before the fact, just as Moscow Washington regularly puts in the Crimea, in Georgia, in the same Syria!

      What you described in international law is called military aggression. Without a UN resolution, mattresses are unlikely to dare to do so. As the saying goes, "He sees the eye, but the tooth is numb." Yes, actually, no one wants to leave Assad at any cost for another 10-20 years. Mattresses have long been told that from a military solution to the Assad problem, we must move on to a political one, i.e. by holding elections. But this option did not suit them. the igilovites already controlled most of Syria, naughty in the vicinity of Damascus and within a few months could bring the head of Assad to the United States. They did not expect the Russian Federation to reduce this territory to 8% in such a short time, and a solution to the ISIS problem would be found without an active “struggle” of the coalition. Soon the mattresses themselves will insist on a “fair” election.
      As for Urkaina, the author somehow missed such a moment as M. Saakashvili’s introduction to the game. The mattresses really don’t like the EU’s hesitation with regard to sanctions, and therefore the EU’s pressure on the rotten Poroshenko will level the next buzz in Kiev, after which it will be unclear with whom and what to talk about, but for the complete “Arctic fox” and “funny” banquet ", the United States is about to start delivering lethal weapons to urkain. The EU turned on its head for too long and was a little late with its decision to change its direction of movement towards Russia. The United States will no longer allow this to be done by setting up a slaughter on a non-stop territory, but they’ll let it down to the heap a couple of the three small countries of the "Young Europeans."
  5. Mikhail3
    Mikhail3 17 October 2017 19: 23 New
    +6
    If until then, any of the current crises does not develop into a serious war, then in January 2018, the process of lifting European sanctions from Russia will begin.
    Of course, far from lifting economic sanctions.

    To my great regret ... This only means that the 18 of pleasantly packed gentlemen, and with them fifty service staff, can ride to Europe and hang around there for six months, on everything ready, writing off good amounts additionally for expenses. For this wonderful life of some gentlemen and ladies, Russia pays about forty million dollars only a direct contribution to someone else's organization. Plus immense expenses. When the board stopped, the bunch got very nervous, and even decided to call our loafers back.
    It's all. No “trend reversal" is not just not visible, it is not even discussed. What did the author of the article draw such a conclusion from? From the fact that the Europeans want to continue to receive 40 millions for nothing? Powerful analyst, who ...
    1. notingem
      notingem 18 October 2017 09: 20 New
      +1
      Unfortunately, we have many such powerful analysts.
  6. antivirus
    antivirus 17 October 2017 20: 02 New
    0
    You can “see” that it is Ukraine that is breaking Minsk agreements at any time. Moreover, the EU has already begun to notice this.
    PRICE OF NON-INVISION --- SALE OF A / S EARTH ON A QUEUE AND THEN TRANSPORT (W \ D AND PORTS)
  7. Alsur
    Alsur 17 October 2017 21: 59 New
    +2
    Quote: Aspid 57
    Russia did not win in Syria! By the majority of the population - the Alawite Assad will not rule the Sunnis for a long time! Russia shot and bombed ISIS to stop its rooting, followed by relocation and massacre in Central Asia! Well, and as a result, tens of millions of refugees to Russia. This could turn into an economic disaster! And what further in Syria itself will be known to Allah alone! Nobody will give water to secular gangs of Russia! Trump will run out of patience and he will simply spread all the Assad administrative and military command bodies with Tomahawks! IRGC and Hezbollah will not be forgotten either! Russian facilities, of course, will not be touched, but there will be nobody to save Russia! They simply put Moscow before the fact, just as Moscow Washington regularly puts in the Crimea, in Georgia, in the same Syria!

    You are from Ukraine, not ours, judging by the thoughts. Why on akka, the Russian flag? But even this is your truth, there are contradictions and women's love for the United States. The owner will want to bomb, he just does not want yet. But when he wanted to, he bombed without hesitation (Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Vietnam). And where the owner really can’t, nothing happens (Iran, DPRK, Venezuela, Cuba, USSR, Russia, China). Only at a show, can take, in such situations. This is about female love for the owner.
    Then it became interesting about the refugees whose hordes will sweep away Russia. Yes, we have yours and the Central Asian and Belarusian, and this hour is enough. Not unfamiliar nations will run to us and not for the first time. Alawites, Sunnis, and what should these Sunnis do in the current situation. They tried the radicals (Sunni), Shiites nearby, so the Alawites may be the best option for them. In general, your reasoning is more like an urge than an analysis of the current situation.
    PS Trying to mimic a Russian, do it thinner. With such thoughts and arguments, you give yourself away immediately.
    1. Aspid 57
      Aspid 57 17 October 2017 22: 23 New
      0
      About the mimicry! If the flag is Russian, then I am in Russia. If I go out to any other point of the planet under my nickname aspid57, other flags will appear. I know this from personal experience. This is the first. The second one. The destruction of Assad will not solve a single problem! Generally! Actually there is a dead end! If real democracy, the rule of the majority, is allowed in Syria, then the life of Shiites and Alawites will be cheaper than dirt! But living as they used to live, when the Alawites controlled everything, also will not work! So - a dead end! About the refugees! "Yours" is it Ukrainian or what? )))) There are two million of them, with fluency in the Russian language and professions. They do not sit on benefits, but plow. Also Belarusians, but they are much smaller. Here we are talking about tens of millions! Among which there will be many thousands of infiltrated terrorists. Regarding the ability of the United States to place Assad. I do not see a single obstacle! It will not be more complicated than with Saddam Hussein. Much easier! And Russia for the sake of Assad America will not declare war! For this will be the last war of the planet!
      1. Alsur
        Alsur 17 October 2017 22: 42 New
        +1
        Yes, to whom you vparivat, dill is visible from afar. You yourself confirm that you are on a mission, apparently, in the hated Russia. Zarobitchin, surrenders to me. You have all the arguments from an independent. Why, under democracy, the life of Shiites and Alawites will be cheaper than dirt. This is under what Igilovskaya democracy, apparently. You do it very well with humor.
        Ours, these are all 14 republics, if Bandera, my, you know what I mean. Many thousands of terrorists have already found shelter and will still find it. Main, take care of your heart, don’t worry. You have logic - troubles. Why declare war on the United States for Assad. Out of sports interest?
      2. Alsur
        Alsur 17 October 2017 23: 09 New
        +1
        I forgot to write right away, in your apocalyptic mriies, there is only enough infiltrated, just like beer, hordes rushing across the Crimean bridge. Here is cotton wool, again I didn’t finish, that all the same, the bridge is in trouble, or in Russian it’s an ambush.
  8. Bakht
    Bakht 17 October 2017 23: 10 New
    +1
    The problem is that no one knows what to do with Ukraine. Well, Poroshenko will leave ... Who knows at least one sane politician in Ukraine? The mistake was made back in 2014. No matter what kind of cattle Yanukovych was, Russia should have recognized him as president in exile and not recognize authority in Kiev. Yes, Yanukovych wasn’t what they didn’t like, but even hated. He could be shot both in Kiev and in the Donbass. But it was the legally elected president of Ukraine. And around him it was necessary to build politics.
    Having recognized Poroshenko as the legitimate president of Ukraine, Russia put itself in a stupid position. Now we need to agree with Poroshenko. If it is demolished, then with whom to negotiate? Saakashvili, Avakov, Tymoshenko? Maybe with Turchinov? With which of them can Moscow agree? Or, with that half of the population of Ukraine (and this is a couple of tens of millions) who sincerely consider Russia an enemy?
    Denazification of such a country is a matter of tens of years and billions of Tugriks. Though green, even wooden. The train left and there’s no point in catching it. And the division of Ukraine is not at all in favor of the Russian Federation. So the country will be in position 404 for a long time.
  9. Alsur
    Alsur 17 October 2017 23: 28 New
    +1
    Quote: Bakht
    The problem is that no one knows what to do with Ukraine. Well, Poroshenko will leave ... Who knows at least one sane politician in Ukraine? The mistake was made back in 2014. No matter what kind of cattle Yanukovych was, Russia should have recognized him as president in exile and not recognize authority in Kiev. Yes, Yanukovych wasn’t what they didn’t like, but even hated. He could be shot both in Kiev and in the Donbass. But it was the legally elected president of Ukraine. And around him it was necessary to build politics.
    Having recognized Poroshenko as the legitimate president of Ukraine, Russia put itself in a stupid position. Now we need to agree with Poroshenko. If it is demolished, then with whom to negotiate? Saakashvili, Avakov, Tymoshenko? Maybe with Turchinov? With which of them can Moscow agree? Or, with that half of the population of Ukraine (and this is a couple of tens of millions) who sincerely consider Russia an enemy?
    Denazification of such a country is a matter of tens of years and billions of Tugriks. Though green, even wooden. The train left and there’s no point in catching it. And the division of Ukraine is not at all in favor of the Russian Federation. So the country will be in position 404 for a long time.

    The same arguments are made by many Russians. But life is a difficult thing, the president of any normal country, receives a lot of information and opinions of advisers and proxies, before making a decision. But the decision is not simple, Ukraine was not a stranger to us. An error or we will not see over time an emergency in the distance. To recognize Yanukovych as president in exile, first of all, and this is the main thing, his desire was needed. That would not look like fools to the whole world. If he would talk - I, not I and not my face. And you, no, you are the president. Allende, died with weapons in his hands, and this blackcurrant collects his grandchildren. To each his own.
    And denazification can only be done by a difficult economic situation (difficulties) and time. Maybe everything is done right.
    75 years of Soviet power could not weaken the stench spirit of Bandera.
    1. Bakht
      Bakht 17 October 2017 23: 46 New
      +1
      We will see.
      All the same, Ukraine will be hanged on the neck of Russia. And there is no way out. Russia will have to rebuild the whole country. Otherwise, another expansion of NATO to the East. Now the front line resembles the spring of 1943 (Baltic, Belarus, Kharkov, Donbass). The partition of Ukraine will result in a shift of the front line to the summer of 1944 (the same Baltic States, Belarus and the front line along the Dnieper). Which is also not a fountain.
      1. Aspid 57
        Aspid 57 18 October 2017 00: 10 New
        0
        Russia will not do anything with Ukraine in the form in which the communists have bunged it. In the end, economically, the country is a competitor. Nobody will take it to NATO, as they are guaranteed to try to drag NATO into the war with Russia! Of course, they want to have bases near Moscow, but the risk is simply fatal. With separate areas in the south and east, the conversation could well be! But not with central Ukraine and not even with the western regions!
        1. Bakht
          Bakht 18 October 2017 00: 56 New
          0
          I would agree, but ....
          In economic terms, Ukraine is not a competitor. To nobody.
          NATO eastward expansion did not stop. So the base near Kharkov is very tempting.
          To give away Western and especially Central Ukraine is a strategic defeat. Do not forget that Central Ukraine is Kiev.
          The war with Russia is Washington’s blue dream. But Europe understands that this is fraught ... There is no war not because Europe does not want to. But because Washington is not ready. Missile defense systems have not yet been deployed. Neither in Europe nor in the Far East.
      2. bratchanin3
        bratchanin3 19 October 2017 13: 23 New
        0
        Allow me to disagree. NATO will not go to Krajina, who will feed them there, the Krainians themselves will soon switch to pasture, from the new year will have to pay $ 4 billion for the IMF debts. But Russia should not and will not restore this hole, if only the nuclear power plant, and so on everything is old and dead.
        1. Bakht
          Bakht 19 October 2017 14: 12 New
          0
          But what, NATO is going to the East to feed?
          Allow me to disagree with you. NATO will move further east as soon as possible. And the poorer the country, the better. Cheaper will contain the base. Which base will be cheaper? In Germany or in Ukraine? And military capabilities are much higher in Ukraine. So from an economic and military point of view, this is a very profitable option.
          1. bratchanin3
            bratchanin3 21 October 2017 10: 50 New
            0
            Well, basically it is. But they will expose themselves to the danger of guerrilla attacks by the LDNR. And Russia, I think, will not be silent.
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  11. bratchanin3
    bratchanin3 19 October 2017 13: 11 New
    0
    That's for sure, let’s not bother them. But you must be prepared for what will be divided into parts. In 2018, Krajina will have to pay off $ 4 billion in external debt to the IMF. We will not wait long.