Military Review

The Second Korean War: The First Hours

143
"If war is inevitable, then let it be now, and not in a few years, when Japanese militarism will be restored as an ally of the United States and when the United States and Japan will have a ready-made foothold on the continent in the form of a Lisenian Korea." (Stalin - Mao Zedong. October 2 1950).




All past week Donald Trump unobtrusively hinted that diplomacy is powerless to deprive the DPRK of nuclear weapons. The probability of a military outcome, therefore, becomes prohibitively high.

Immediately I would like to dismiss the assurances of those "analysts" who took the excessive courage to assert that an attack on a nuclear power is impossible in principle. This rule did not work very well in the last century. Examples of this: Folklands, Damansky, Kashmir 1999 of the year.

But now the world has changed. And changed radically. If someone does not realize this fact, continuing to babble from the high tribunes about “friends” and “partners,” then so much the worse for him. Not to mention the fact that all this “partnership” previously existed solely in the imagination of some Russian government officials.

Another eminent "analysts" can recall the wonderful predictions of past years in the spirit of "Saddam will show them" and "Gaddafi will ask them." Where are your Saddam and Gaddafi now?

Nuclear weapons are not a universal remedy for all ills. Completely destroy the South and especially Japan, Pyongyang absolutely definitely can not. With his meager amount of charges, Kim Jong-un would not have been able to wipe out even a power the size of Israel, which is much smaller than the countries mentioned above. But after the use of nuclear weapons, the North Korean regime may include a countdown, because a retaliatory nuclear strike by the US will turn it into dust.

However, nuclear weapons are only a private episode in a possible war in the Far East. Based on our knowledge of the geography of the region, as well as the military strategy of the parties, we can roughly assume the scenario.

First minutes

The initial wave will be the strike of the strategic bomber B-1 Lancer (from Guam) with the help of the CG AGM-158 JASSM, whose mission is to hit highly protected targets. I also do not exclude the use of B-2 Spirit bombers, which will fly from the mainland USA. The total number of CDs will depend only on the number of combat vehicles.

Simultaneously or with a lag in 10-15 min. Tomahawk cruise missiles, launched by the escort ships of the aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan, will arrive at the targets. One destroyer "Arly Burke" can carry up to 60 KR "Tomahawk", and the cruiser "Ticonderoga" - twice as much. Support fireworks will be able to modernized nuclear submarines "Ohio", which is dragging 154 powerful "gifts to Kim" - just one of these submarine cruisers USS Michigan at full steam goes to Korea. In total, the US Navy is capable of taking a volley of 350-550 units of Tomahawks alone. forces only deployed now in the Sea of ​​Japan ships.

At the same time, South Korea strikes. Unlike China, Japan, and Russia, official Seoul can’t get away from the war, so Moon Jae In’’s government will probably go straight with a trump card. By such an ace we mean BR Hyunmoo with a range of up to 800 km, based on wheeled platforms. Also aviation Over the past six months, South Korea has repeatedly demonstrated its CDs and air bombs to destroy fortified targets.



Obviously, in this situation, North Korea will receive a devastating blow to the military and partly civilian infrastructure immediately behind or at the same time as the first wave.

Nuclear retribution

In the first hours, faced with a full-scale invasion, Kim the Third will stand in front of the fork.

First, he has a chance to contact the United States through diplomatic channels and urgently try to negotiate the conditions for preserving the regime in response to the abandonment of the nuclear program. And Washington can take them, by the way.

This option can actually suit everyone. Kim Jong-un remains in power, although he will lose nuclear toys.

Americans will be able to declare their victory and they will be right. Indeed, from the very beginning it was not the change of the regime in the DPRK that was declared, but the destruction of the North Korean nuclear program. Along the way, the States will rid themselves of the need to wage a grueling war in the mountainous and wooded area of ​​the Korean Peninsula.

Beijing and Moscow will also benefit. And it's not just that they will avoid radiation clouds on their borders. China will get North Korea in a much more docile and puppet form after defeat. Russia will consider the possibility of raising the question of the inadmissibility of building up missile defense systems in Asia - there is no threat anymore.

However, such a prosperous scenario can only dream of. Most likely, the political and military leadership in Pyongyang will decide to fight without fools, including the use of nuclear weapons.

However, the use of nuclear weapons is possible only if several conditions are met.

The first. The North Koreans really developed a compact nuclear device that can fit in a ballistic missile warhead. This task itself is not trivial, frankly. And it requires very serious technology.

The second. All ballistic missiles will not be destroyed in bunkers during the first wave of coalition attacks. This, of course, is unlikely, but the destruction of most of them does not look so fantastic.

Third. All soaring media will be OK. Marriage and lack of quality in the aerospace industry, until recently, remained the scourge of North Korean industry.

Fourth. Started single media will not be destroyed by missile defense systems. And in South Korea and Japan, it is a two-layer. THAAD is responsible for the first (long-range interception) in the South and Aegis + Standard Missile 3 SM-3 Block IB in Japan. The second interception layer is provided by the Patriot PAC-3 in both countries.

And the most important thing. The use of nuclear weapons against South Korea, Japan or any of the territories of the United States practically unleashes the Pentagon to use nuclear weapons on the widest scale, which means not only the death of the North Korean state, but also the total extermination of the population. I do not think that this is not understood in Pyongyang. Even Hitler on the craziest days did not dare to use chemical projectiles on either the Western or the Eastern Front for the banal reason: the Allies would have found much more such weapons.

And if so ...[/B]

Of course, only those who are defective in mind can rejoice in the potentially possible death of hundreds of thousands of South Koreans and Japanese if Kim performs his worst threat regarding the use of nuclear weapons. However, there are quite objective reasons for concern. Such a tragedy, without any doubt, will return South Korea to the state of rapidly arming military dictatorship of the times of Chon Doo Hwan, not to mention Japan, which will reject all democracy and pacifism and follow the example of the South Koreans. In such an atmosphere, the creation of nuclear weapons by Seoul and Tokyo will become only a matter of time - and not for long.

For a weakening Russia, such an outcome can have the most unpleasant consequences.

If we talk about the purely military use of nuclear weapons by Pyongyang, then there are much more prospects. First of all, it is about the devastation of the largest military bases of the South, and especially the port facilities. And the most priority goal here will be the famous Busan.

The fact is that the ports are simultaneously naval bases and terminals for the arrival of reinforcements from among the American troops. The fleet in the second Korean war will play the same key role that it played in the first. Obviously, instead of cracking the fortifications behind the demilitarized zone, the allies will most likely decide to land on the much less fortified coast of the North. It is no coincidence that the South actively developed precisely this component of its fleet.

[b] Answer northerners


If nuclear weapons are left out, then the most likely answer of the northerners to the first wave of attack will be the artillery terror of Seoul. They wrote a lot about it, savoring the tens of thousands of dead citizens, but everything is not so simple. For in the very first minutes after the artillery of the northerners, the hunt will begin from the air forces of South Korea and the USA. Under the conditions of their complete supremacy in the air, the destruction of the artillery of the North will become a matter of extremely short time. Well, the counter-battery struggle, as without it.



USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier near Iwo Jima

Simultaneously with the airfields of the South and the deck of the aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan, the second stage of the air raid will begin. The targets will be airfields and naval bases of the North, as well as command posts and air defense units that survived the first wave.

There is no chance for North Korean aviation. Only submarines that are already at sea will survive from the fleet. The rest, as well as the entire surface fleet, are just targets. Ducks in the dash.

In the very first hours, Pyongyang's submarines (outdated, but numerous) will try to break through the country's sea blockade. The chances of this are small, but there is precisely because of the large number of underwater hunters.

The final

In general, this section “first hours” can be considered complete. Next, start the "first days". Obviously, the coalition will have a decisive advantage from the very beginning. And only the question of the damage that the Americans will be able to inflict on the strategic nuclear forces and military control systems of the DPRK remains open.

If the States are able to hit key command posts and underground headquarters, then the paralysis of the decision to retaliate can be very much delayed. The destruction of Kim Jong-un himself risks losing control into chaos.

Geography in this regard plays both for and against the North Koreans. On the one hand, the mountainous-forested area prevents the army of potential adversaries from detecting and eliminating all military strategic facilities. On the other hand, the area of ​​the DPRK does not exceed the area of ​​some regions of the Russian Federation. That is, it is easier to cover a small territory with a reconnaissance resource: satellites, UAVs, etc. Although the number of underground military facilities of the DPRK amounts to thousands, it is not possible to cover them reliably from modern means of detection.

And, of course, the decisive role will be played by how early the government in Pyongyang learns about the date and time of the United States attack on Korean objects. Here only the PRC, which has the appropriate resources, can help. If it becomes known about the inevitable strike at least three hours later, the chances for the DPRK armed forces will increase significantly.
Author:
143 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. andrewkor
    andrewkor 14 October 2017 05: 58 New
    28
    Another "horror story" from a couch expert. I can scribble a dozen options, but only laziness. I would rather read what more active comrades say.
    1. krops777
      krops777 14 October 2017 10: 19 New
      15
      For a weakening Russia, such an outcome can have the most unpleasant consequences.


      As soon as I read it, everything fell into place, the author sent a Cossack, the meaning of the article is clear, the DPRK, Russia and China surrender, some brave Nato will be bombed, others will be covered with an atomic cloud, and the United States will be rescued by South Korea and Japan.
      1. xetai9977
        xetai9977 14 October 2017 12: 25 New
        11
        Pretty competent article. Most likely it will be so. In fact, the Eun regime does not deserve a different fate.
        1. Dead duck
          Dead duck 14 October 2017 12: 52 New
          22
          Quote: xetai9977
          Pretty competent article. Most likely it will be so. In fact, the Eun regime does not deserve a different fate.

          It’s all right. laughing
          1. Nuclear plants in South Korea are not counted.
          Even YaBCH is not necessary that they would arrange an armageddad.
          2. Ground Army.
          Of course, they won’t reach Yankistan on foot, but they will "march" to the south.
          3. China and Russia.
          They will not sit idly by (when attacking the north). China for sure.
          1. The comment was deleted.
            1. Orel
              Orel 14 October 2017 14: 03 New
              +7
              Quote: Matak
              Are you ready for the Russian guys to die for the sweet life of the possessed Kim Son of Grandson?


              When they write this, I don’t think that they themselves will have to go to war))) Or their children. When it comes to fried. The position of many will be: "My hut with the edge." And China, by the way, may be one of the first. With what joy they save Kim. Not such a big problem for them, in order to save him, to risk the well-being of his country, risking a conflict with the United States. No, Kim will be alone if it comes to war. He will be able to spoil others, but not to win. The numbers are stubborn. The defeat is calculated purely arithmetically. However, I hope that they will agree without a war. There is still time. So far, much preparation is not visible, but there is a trend. The coalition is being formed, public opinion is being prepared, and so far small forces are gathering together. This is a signal to Kim that everything is serious, not just words.
              1. Dead duck
                Dead duck 14 October 2017 14: 24 New
                14
                Quote: Orel
                When they write this, I don’t think that they themselves will have to go to fight

                You look constantly think ... almost the master of numbers and the master of arithmetic.
                1. Orel
                  Orel 14 October 2017 14: 34 New
                  +9
                  Quote: Deadush
                  You look constantly think ... almost the master of numbers and the master of arithmetic.


                  Of course I think, but what surprises you in what a person thinks before saying? I do not pretend to be the “master of numbers,” but I have little faith that 26 million people of the DPRK are capable of defeating the coalition of the United States, Japan, and South Korea. This is not counting the rest who will join. And I do not believe in the participation of Russia on the side of the DPRK, in principle, it will be enchanting stupidity. China's participation is extremely doubtful. China will not receive any advantages from preserving Kim, but the costs and losses will be fantastic. Therefore, in my words there is nothing but logic. But of course this is only my calculation. Everything can be different, people do not always act logically.
                  1. Dead duck
                    Dead duck 14 October 2017 21: 54 New
                    12
                    Quote: Orel
                    but I have little faith that 26 million people of DPRK are able to defeat the coalition of the United States, Japan and South Korea

                    And everyone does not need to win.
                    About 10 millions of reserves can break a lot of firewood on the isthmus.
                    The Japanese, too, did not make sense to sacrifice their lives selflessly at the end of the war with the Yankees ... however, such a people (traditions, spirit and all that).
                    The Koreans will not yield to them in their "savvy" and desire to fight for their homeland.
                    At one time, the entire united geyropa was against the USSR. In their opinion, we had no chance at all, but history showed the opposite. request
                    Quote: Orel
                    Therefore, in my words there is nothing but logic

                    And the logic is that the Yankees have long won nothing by themselves. Especially with a serious opponent.
                  2. Nagaibak
                    Nagaibak 15 October 2017 08: 05 New
                    +2
                    Orel "The participation of China is extremely doubtful. China will not receive any advantages from retaining Kim, but the costs and losses will be fantastic."
                    Of course, of course, the Chinese will clap their hands while watching the Americans bend over Kim.))) They will certainly remain indifferent watching how the Americans will gain a foothold in North Korea.))) In general, the Chinese officially spoke out about this.)))
                  3. xtur
                    xtur 17 October 2017 10: 51 New
                    +3
                    > China's participation is extremely doubtful.

                    China has already warned that if the US attacks S. Korea, it will render any help to the Koreans.

                    And yes - China is building a six-lane highway to S. Korea - probably he has nowhere to go
            2. Dead duck
              Dead duck 14 October 2017 14: 20 New
              10
              Quote: Matak
              Are you ready for the Russian guys to die for the sweet life of the possessed Kim Son of Grandson?

              No, we are ready for Israel to sleep sweetly and eat heartily.
              Soft and warm should not be confused.
              No one will let you arrange a nuclear garbage dump near you.
          2. Normal ok
            Normal ok 14 October 2017 15: 05 New
            +2
            Quote: Deadush
            1. NPPs in South Korea are not counted. Even the BCH does not need to be arranged by them. 2. Ground Army. Of course, they won’t reach Yankistan on foot, but they will "march" to the south .3. China and Russia. They will not sit idly by (when attacking the north). China for sure.

            1) NPP power units are designed taking into account the possible fall of an airplane on them. So that they will survive the North Korean artillery. Before the start of the war, the power units of South Korea will be stopped, away from sin.
            2) The land army, of course, can try to break through the border fortifications but built their Pts. thoroughly. And without the support of artillery, something is unlikely to succeed. Yes, and management will be disrupted.
            3) Russia and China will certainly express concern. But they will not fight the United States and its allies. Maybe China will try to remove Un and persuade North Korean generals to surrender ???
            1. Dead duck
              Dead duck 14 October 2017 16: 11 New
              12
              Quote: Normal ok
              Power units of nuclear power plants are designed taking into account the possible fall of an airplane on them.

              There, no planes will fall, and you can do without it.
              Quote: Normal ok
              2) The land army, of course, can try to break through the border fortifications but built their Pts. thoroughly. And without the support of artillery, something is unlikely to succeed. Yes, and management will be disrupted.

              For the first time already tried and successfully.
              Quote: Normal ok
              Russia and China will of course express concern. But they will not fight the United States and its allies.

              Of course, everyone forgot about the first Korean ...
            2. Rus2012
              Rus2012 14 October 2017 20: 55 New
              +5
              Quote: Normal ok
              Russia and China will of course express concern. But they will not fight the United States and its allies. Maybe China will try to remove Un and persuade North Korean generals to surrender ???

              ... here you are when they try to evict you from your living space will be "thank you!" speak to raiders? Or try to resist?

              The situation with North Korea, where millions of lives have been laid in 50, and the Chinese, too, is comparable to this. Unlike you, the Chinese remember all their kinship to the 7go knee. And we, too, who are not nameless and without memory, too ...
            3. xtur
              xtur 17 October 2017 10: 57 New
              +2
              > 1) NPP power units are designed taking into account the possible fall of an airplane on them. So that they will survive the North Korean artillery.

              you do not apply Russian laws to everyone. Fukushima also had to be tsunami resistant - but in fact, full of figs. So it can be stable, maybe not. And no one will turn off nuclear power plants at the beginning of the war - the country will immediately lose electricity production. And South Korea is not S. Korea, at the slightest sign of domestic difficulties, they will fall into complete depression and nothing will save them
            4. Soho
              Soho 18 October 2017 08: 49 New
              0
              Normal ok October 14, 2017 15:05
              1) NPP power units are designed taking into account the possible fall of an airplane on them. So that the North Korean artillery will survive

              Fokushima won't agree with you ...
        2. Nagaibak
          Nagaibak 15 October 2017 08: 11 New
          +2
          xetai9977 "Pretty competent article. Most likely it will be so. In fact, the Eun regime does not deserve a different fate."
          This is unlikely ...)))
        3. badens1111
          badens1111 15 October 2017 11: 43 New
          +2
          Quote: xetai9977
          Pretty competent article. Most likely it will be so. In fact, the Eun regime does not deserve a different fate.

          Bullshit, not an article.
          However, try it, then do not complain.
          For those who believe in nonsense like an article, I recommend reading books -
          "Engineering and fortification in the Korean conflict" And in the fifties, did the DPRK do nothing more all this time? Not to mention the development of weapons systems.
          Well, in general, the flag is a lot of Ameri Ji-ah, and those who go with them to die in the war against the DPRK.
    2. Evdokim
      Evdokim 14 October 2017 10: 22 New
      12
      The article is similar to a memorial service. In every war, there is a high probability of various accidents, whether the missiles will not fly, or the paratroopers will strike out, or the weather is not flying, it was so smooth on paper, but they forgot about the ravines, and it is not known how this whole adventure will end. I am worried that Primorye may suffer. hi
      1. Evdokim
        Evdokim 14 October 2017 10: 28 New
        +4
        The fact that Japan and South Korea will not be good is a fact. hi And if there is an attack on the DPRK, it does not matter who UNA informs, I have no doubt soldier
      2. avt
        avt 14 October 2017 13: 56 New
        13
        Quote: Evdokim
        The article is similar to a memorial service.

        no The author was fertilized by Gaydaevsky - ,, And what does Comrade Katz offer? Katz offers to surrender. "But we must pay tribute - the builders of the computer, fun farm" are enough.
        Quote: Snail N9
        The author is right. "Atomic" Kim does not shine, from the word "absolutely." Americans and South Koreans don’t even have to send their troops into the territory of the DPRK — North Koreans, they just need to “bomb into the Stone Age” —constant air strikes, missiles and drones will destroy the entire infrastructure and not allow farming in the DPRK level and that’s all, in a couple of three years the “brave” North Korean patriots will simply starve to death in their catacombs, and the remaining little fanatics will despairingly go to the “last and decisive” South Korean and American machine guns, as they already did the Japanese are in WWII.

        Here the bomb gave out just like the deceased Nemtsov about the adventures of the initial USs in Afghanistan - ,, Look how beautiful the Americans did everything in Afghanistan. " bully
        Quote: Evdokim
        And if there is an attack on the DPRK, it does not matter who UNA informs, I have no doubt

        Why guess then? China, and the DPRK their client, clearly stated AFTER the adoption of sanctions- If the DPRK attacks anyone, China will not intervene. If they attack the DPRK, China will enter the conflict. It was said not by couch experts, but quite officially on behalf of the leadership.
    3. Kenxnumx
      Kenxnumx 14 October 2017 10: 23 New
      +7
      We all can. Just lie on the couch. And the comrade was not too lazy to write a rather entertaining fantastic story. Well done.
      1. Evdokim
        Evdokim 14 October 2017 10: 30 New
        +5
        They suffer from graphomania. And who is great? hi
        1. Kenxnumx
          Kenxnumx 14 October 2017 10: 35 New
          +2
          The author is well done. I read in one go.
          1. Paranoid50
            Paranoid50 14 October 2017 14: 41 New
            +5
            Quote: Ken71
            I read in one go.

            Well, congratulations on healthy lungs (if it wasn’t an oxygen pillow). laughing
            1. Kenxnumx
              Kenxnumx 14 October 2017 14: 46 New
              +1
              Well, now the age is not the same, but maybe two minutes I can.
    4. GradusHuK
      GradusHuK 14 October 2017 12: 07 New
      +8
      Oh, these storytellers! fool
    5. Rus2012
      Rus2012 14 October 2017 13: 06 New
      +6
      Quote: andrewkor
      Another "horror story" from the sofa expert

      The author, Alexander Zbitnev, is a science fiction, moreover, of the liberno-prosralipolymer type, at least!

      The author did not hear, or did not know about two things at all, he already wrote -
      China expressly states -
      "On the unacceptability of a new war on the Korean Peninsula ..."
      Russia supports -
      "the impossibility of hostilities ..."
      If ALL this is translated into normal Russian, it means - "row by ..."

      Those. with an unmotivated blow (or provocative) from 3,14ndos - the Chinese will come to the rescue IMMEDIATELY! RF- will support with the help of PRO-Air Defense-Navy ...

      For to allow US domination and hegemony on the Korean Peninsula - the PRC + RF cannot allow themselves!

      Based on this, nuclear mushrooms (in Guam, Okinawa-based US) may possibly occur during a break after the first wave of Yankee strikes. When they need to find out the effectiveness of the strikes. They will not kill ALL PGRK ...
      Although, they are unlikely to go for a massive strike of the Kyrgyz Republic. Rather, they will try to “catch” Yyn with a point strike. But still, this will lead to instant escalation.
      Well, South Korea expects a tornado from conventional mobile MLRS ...
      1. Kenxnumx
        Kenxnumx 14 October 2017 14: 03 New
        +4
        It’s like you’re a fantasy.
        1. Rus2012
          Rus2012 14 October 2017 20: 51 New
          +3
          Quote: Ken71
          It’s like you’re a fantasy.

          another prosralipolymers; (
          And this is the whole VO with its "devans" falling into the abyss ...
      2. The comment was deleted.
    6. siberalt
      siberalt 14 October 2017 14: 33 New
      +3
      Some crazy ravings! In vain his dad allowed him to play computer games. belay
  2. 210ox
    210ox 14 October 2017 06: 14 New
    14
    Dear Zbitnev..I'm not talking about the DPRK and everything else. In the article you were very mistaken .. About the "weakening Russia." You were mistaken. Mistaken by time.
    1. Kenxnumx
      Kenxnumx 14 October 2017 10: 36 New
      +4
      He meant economics and not ambition.
      1. 210ox
        210ox 14 October 2017 11: 58 New
        +8
        Is the economy weakening? Maybe it is still not growing as fast as we all want?
        Quote: Ken71
        He meant economics and not ambition.
        1. Kenxnumx
          Kenxnumx 14 October 2017 14: 04 New
          +3
          Is she growing? Only with oil prices if you are talking about GDP.
          1. 210ox
            210ox 14 October 2017 14: 06 New
            10
            Well, if you don’t leave your house, then yes, it doesn’t grow. Even take the village where I live as an example — a pig-breeding complex, next year a sugar factory and a waste processing plant. Everyone sees what he wants to see. The economic power of the USSR is unconditional we have not reached yet.
            Quote: Ken71
            Is she growing? Only with oil prices if you are talking about GDP.
  3. Litvinov
    Litvinov 14 October 2017 06: 52 New
    +5
    Unscientific fiction needs no comment ...

    The author has plenty of self-doubt to control the actions of the United States and North Korea.
    1. The black
      The black 14 October 2017 08: 28 New
      +4
      Straight Eeral - strategist .... put everything on the shelves of what and how .... well at the Pentagon they don’t know about him ... laughing
  4. Snail N9
    Snail N9 14 October 2017 06: 59 New
    +5
    The author is right. "Atomic" Kim does not shine, from the word "absolutely." Americans and South Koreans don’t even have to send their troops into the territory of the DPRK — North Koreans, they just need to “bomb into the Stone Age” —constant air strikes, missiles and drones will destroy the entire infrastructure and not allow farming in the DPRK level and that’s all, in a couple of three years the “brave” North Korean patriots will simply starve to death in their catacombs, and the remaining little fanatics will despairingly go to the “last and decisive” South Korean and American machine guns, as they already did the Japanese are in WWII. Not, of course, there will be some howl in the democratic media of the “pan-Europeans” and Russia with China over excessive cruelty and unauthorized use of force against the civilian population, but this will be mildly expressed - Americans will quickly shut up their mouths or simply will not pay attention to anything, like they always do it ... No, nothing shines on the North Koreans in case of war, absolutely. They will either have to completely capitulate or disappear as a nation ...
    1. zulusuluz
      zulusuluz 14 October 2017 08: 55 New
      +9
      And about the probable breakthrough of one missile with a nuclear warhead to the United States, did you think? This will be a complete failure of US policy, especially against the background of Trump's statements about 97% of missiles being shot down ...
      1. Snail N9
        Snail N9 14 October 2017 09: 22 New
        +6
        Well, let's put it this way: no one knows for sure whether Kim has nuclear warheads suitable for ballistic missiles - this is firstly. Secondly, the DPRK does not have missiles reaching the United States-type islands of Guam. Thirdly, the x-precision of the DPRK missiles plus minus one bast, and even reliability, to hell, half if not more fall in the way or explode, fourthly: the United States will undoubtedly knock a couple of three missiles the way the trajectory Their flight is known and easily controlled.
        1. d ^ Amir
          d ^ Amir 14 October 2017 09: 54 New
          11
          how many times to write .... they will declare a diplomatic flight ... they will load a bomb there more powerfully and will fly over Washington .... and considering that the whole American political bombond will eat up for "surrender" of Un !!!! the effect of the application will be excellent ... at once 80% of the conflicts in the world will end ...
        2. zulusuluz
          zulusuluz 14 October 2017 10: 42 New
          12
          No one answered the question "Why didn’t they hit a rocket flying over Japan?"
          1. Dead duck
            Dead duck 14 October 2017 12: 44 New
            +9
            Quote: zulusuluz
            No one answered the question "Why didn’t they hit a rocket flying over Japan?"

            Well, if C-300 and C-400 in Syria, the tomahawks did not shoot down, then this one would not be able to laughing
            1. zulusuluz
              zulusuluz 14 October 2017 15: 14 New
              +3
              You see the difference in "before the eyes and behind the fence"? Then why say that?
              The Tomahawks flew around the terrain, hiding in the folds of the mountainous terrain, and the North Korean missile flew along a ballistic trajectory.
              PS The Russians, for your information, give a destruction rate of about 0,87 when paired with a missile defense. And this, mind you, is lower than Trump with a single rocket - 0,97.
          2. Snail N9
            Snail N9 14 October 2017 21: 25 New
            +1
            No one answered the question "Why didn’t they hit a rocket flying over Japan?"


            “Why didn’t anyone give it?” Everything was clearly explained: the rocket flew in outer space, which is not “someone’s” and fell in the “ex-territorial” waters, the same thing, there was no right to shoot it down. Only in If a military confrontation is declared, then everything that any country considers a threat to itself is destroyed. What is not clear? Now what, is the DPRK war declared?
            1. Soho
              Soho 18 October 2017 09: 06 New
              0
              Snail N9 October 14, 2017 21:25 p.m.
              Only in the case when a military confrontation is declared, then everything that any country considers a threat to itself is destroyed. What is not clear? Now what, the DPRK war is declared?

              what nonsense are you carrying. And in peacetime, what threatens is easily lost (or it is implied that it threatens). North Korean Boeing is an example for you.
        3. max702
          max702 14 October 2017 12: 34 New
          +7
          Quote: Snail N9
          Well, let's put it this way: no one knows for sure whether Kim has nuclear warheads suitable for ballistic missiles - this is firstly. Secondly, the DPRK does not have missiles reaching the United States-type islands of Guam. Thirdly, the x-precision of the DPRK missiles plus minus one bast, and even reliability, to hell, half if not more fall in the way or explode, fourthly: the United States will undoubtedly knock a couple of three missiles the way the trajectory Their flight is known and easily controlled.

          And if there are rockets and they will not be brought down? 20-30 million of the population and trillion-dollar losses will smear Trump and his team to dust ... UNTIL Kim confirmed everything, but from the US it’s not very ...
          1. The comment was deleted.
            1. max702
              max702 15 October 2017 11: 36 New
              +1
              Well, of course, missiles will fall exclusively in the deserts of the state of Nevada .. But what if it flies into an operating nuclear power plant? Or destroy the dam hydroelectric power station, or at what other critical point to cause maximum damage? These points are easily calculated, just like in that joke when a Soviet general on an excursion in the states stated that this gas station is a priority target for my missile regiment .. To which the frenzied guide asked why there weren’t a single military and civilian object for hundreds of miles! That was said, and here the tectonic fault and one warhead and all of California will slide into the ocean ... And yet, while no missile defense was shot down .. so even one missile in 200 kilotons does not have Los Angeles .. or what other cities with tens of millions, and if there are 5-6 such missiles?
              RS: Everyone somehow forgot what nuclear weapons are .. And very vain ..
              1. The comment was deleted.
                1. max702
                  max702 15 October 2017 22: 05 New
                  0
                  Regarding the fusion, the last test was just announced about the fusion .. And what a circular deviation of HZ ... Maybe 100m, maybe 1 km .. How does it arrive in real life and no one knows and check those who wish it is not observed .. you can console yourself that everything will be fine, but preparing for the worst is much more useful .. Well, the faults are fantastic, and industrial facilities of increased danger, too, are there anything like it? Well, well, then when there are accidents in cities, the people are evacuated, in 200th the electricity was turned off for several hours in Washington, it seems, people didn’t count, and then the nuclear power plant is in ruins .. Is this not possible? This is enough for you to watch about Superman, and review the letters of "Dead Man" closer to reality ..
        4. albert
          albert 14 October 2017 21: 41 New
          +1
          Quote: Snail N9
          whether Kim has nuclear warheads suitable for ballistic missiles is firstly. Secondly, the DPRK does not have missiles reaching the United States-type islands of Guam. Thirdly, the x-accuracy of the DPRK missiles plus minus the “one bast”, and even reliability

          Whether Kim has nuclear warheads and whether they reach the United States is a 50 to 50 probability, but that’s already a lot. Speaking of accuracy, if Russia and China can help Kim with target designation for both ballistic missiles and air defense missiles. and such help would be more effective than sending soldiers like in the first Korean war. Know, keep A-50 heels in the air near the borders, and give out the coordinates. And let the Yankees try to prove something in this case.
          1. Snail N9
            Snail N9 15 October 2017 00: 11 New
            0
            What is "target designation"? Do you actually understand how an intercontinental missile flies and is guided along a ballistic trajectory? In the DPRK, only the rudiments of inertial guidance even "astro correction" have so far been "overpowered" ...
      2. Normal ok
        Normal ok 14 October 2017 15: 12 New
        +3
        Quote: zulusuluz
        And about the probable breakthrough of one missile with a nuclear warhead to the United States, did you think? This will be a complete failure of US policy, especially against the background of Trump's statements about 97% of missiles being shot down ...

        In this case, the Americans will suffer some kind of damage. So what? This will only provoke them to use their nuclear forces, which is much worse. Eun will lose anyway. Just after that, he will take with him to a radioactive grave a large part of the population. But figs with him, with Eun. In this case, Russia and China will receive nuclear contamination of their territory.
        1. Rus2012
          Rus2012 14 October 2017 21: 01 New
          +3
          Quote: Normal ok
          Eun will lose anyway.

          ... "count the chickens in the fall" (c)
          As a rule, wars end not at all planned by the zealous ...
    2. Nagaibak
      Nagaibak 15 October 2017 08: 17 New
      +1
      Snail N9 "No, the North Koreans do not shine in case of war, absolutely. They will either have to completely capitulate or disappear as a nation ..."
      So much pathos.))) Of course, you can bomb everything.))) But to capture and hold alone bombing will not work. You know, infantry is needed for such things. But it is not, your Americans, that is, that is ... but it is shitty.)))
    3. Soho
      Soho 18 October 2017 09: 00 New
      0
      Snail N9 October 14, 2017 06:59 p.m.
      just need to be "bombed into the Stone Age" -constant air strikes, missiles and drones will destroy the entire infrastructure and not be allowed to engage in agriculture

      someone again does not take haloperidol .... ayayay lol not good, man. Eka rushing you then))
  5. apro
    apro 14 October 2017 07: 12 New
    +7
    Terrible war scenarios .... But who can give a wave of arms? China will look at these dances with tambourines at its borders? One should not consider the Chinese as naive, the threat to the DPRK is a threat to the People's Republic of China. Beijing firmly defends its interests in front of the SGA, despite trade turnover.
    1. Snail N9
      Snail N9 14 October 2017 07: 29 New
      +3
      I would not rely on China as a state standing on the side of the DPRK and which will "fit in" for Kim, "if something happens." China "rock the boat" is not at all out of hand. The fact is that China needs the notorious trade with the United States as air-exporting Chinese goods to the United States and the EU and around the world, China is solving the most important task for itself - earning currency to purchase a huge amount of food. Few pay attention to this, but China is the largest buyer of food from all over the world. Therefore, China needs commodity circulation as air for a banal survival, otherwise a billion Chinese will have to eat grass and remember the days of Mao “a working day for a cup of rice” ...
      1. Nagaibak
        Nagaibak 15 October 2017 08: 25 New
        +2
        Snail N9 "Therefore, China needs commodity circulation as air for a banal survival, otherwise a billion Chinese will have to eat grass and remember the days of Mao -" a working day for a cup of rice .. "
        If the Chinese agree to the principle, they will eat a cup of rice and grass. Do not understand this))) and to draw any conclusions is stupid. Not everything is measured by grandmas and grub. In general, all this fuss is ordinary American show-offs. And then everyone tells what America will do. And no one says what the DPRK will do. Besides the fact that they are retarded I don’t hear anything.))) It's funny to listen. War will show who is hu. We here listened to different forecasts many times.)))
    2. Mavrikiy
      Mavrikiy 14 October 2017 07: 47 New
      +7
      Quote: apro
      Terrible war scenarios .... But who can give a wave of arms? China will look at these dances with tambourines at its borders? One should not consider the Chinese as naive, the threat to the DPRK is a threat to the People's Republic of China. Beijing firmly defends its interests in front of the SGA, despite trade turnover.

      All right. Because the United States and "green grapes", but I really want to crawl closer to Beijing.
      As for the economic ties between the United States and China, they are forcing a "silk road" in order to throw off the noose. Let liberalists with their masters snot, but the DPRK will remain safe and sound with its nuclear weapons.
  6. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 14 October 2017 07: 30 New
    +9
    It seems that the author only yesterday from Trump, who visually on a box of sand showed what would happen to the DPRK. But it struck on the spot
    For a weakening Russia, such an outcome can have the most unpleasant consequences.
    Directly from the liberal Nekrasov, who often happens in "60 minutes" and R. Babayan. That all comes down to Russia's weak economy, people in need, and "it's time to give up."
  7. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 14 October 2017 07: 37 New
    11
    If war is inevitable, then let it be now, and not in a few years, when Japanese militarism will be restored as an ally of the United States and when the United States and Japan will have a ready bridgehead on the continent in the form of Lisynman's Korea. " (Stalin - Mao Zedong. October 2, 1950).
    Did Stalin write this about today? How relevant it sounds.
    And the article ..... the author had no one to give a glass of cold water:
    Of course, only flawed minds can rejoice at the potential death of hundreds of thousands of South Koreans and Japanese,
    But after the use of nuclear weapons, the North Korean regime may include a countdown, because the retaliatory nuclear strike by the United States will turn it into dust.
    These are those who are not "flawed by the mind", now authors on VO.
  8. solzh
    solzh 14 October 2017 08: 07 New
    10
    The author is far from Jules Verne. Mix barbaros and your own conjectures ... Bad article, worthless analytics.
    1. ventel
      ventel 14 October 2017 13: 25 New
      +2
      And you hope a good analyst as you explain the fact that Japan adopted a law on the creation of a full-fledged army that Seoul was allowed to develop strategic missiles. Are you sure that Washington will not give the go-ahead for Japan and South Korea to acquire nuclear weapons. And tell me how Moscow and Beijing will react to this.
  9. B.T.V.
    B.T.V. 14 October 2017 08: 14 New
    +5
    When someone writes a script for the eruption of the Yellowstone volcano, will the consequences of its “work” really be less impressive than the results of US aggression against other states ?!
    1. andrewkor
      andrewkor 14 October 2017 08: 59 New
      +3
      Take a colleague B.V.T. I will be very grateful, I love these works!
  10. San Sanych
    San Sanych 14 October 2017 08: 48 New
    +5
    What can I say about the article? in short, this is nonsense of inflamed consciousness
    1. Paranoid50
      Paranoid50 14 October 2017 23: 49 New
      +2
      Quote: San Sanych
      then this is nonsense of inflamed consciousness

      Everything is simpler: a person issued his own (or someone else's) Wishlist for the real perspective of the development of events. Yes, "it’s more convenient to manage an invented world." yes Well, have fun.
      1. San Sanych
        San Sanych 14 October 2017 23: 59 New
        +1
        it looks more like not your own (Wishlist), but someone’s, but as they say: do cancer, richer in thought
  11. sergo1914
    sergo1914 14 October 2017 08: 48 New
    +6
    Where do such authors come from? Have the holidays begun at school?
    1. Paranoid50
      Paranoid50 14 October 2017 23: 49 New
      +1
      Quote: sergo1914
      Where do such authors come from?

      Duc, from dampness. laughing
  12. Semenov
    Semenov 14 October 2017 08: 48 New
    +5
    Enlightened however. And what will happen to the United States, because in fact they unleashed a war and destroyed millions. Trump just can’t stand what the Americans themselves will say about the undoubted atrocities of their state, will Europe wipe away its “values” (?), “Weakening Russia” and China will keep silent? The use of nuclear weapons on either side will lead to a crisis worse than the Caribbean, and the usual one too, they can also figure out the situation there, put the planet on the brink of destruction - this is something beyond even even theirs.
    1. Rurikovich
      Rurikovich 14 October 2017 09: 42 New
      +4
      Quote: Semenov
      And what will happen to the United States, because in fact they unleashed a war and destroyed millions.

      There will be nothing lol - they will declare Russia guilty of starting a war and business repeat laughing
      And the "world community" in the form of Europa will agree with this request And there will be "democracy" and continue to walk the planet winked
      1. Semenov
        Semenov 14 October 2017 10: 33 New
        +2
        They only go to Eun for a long time, the pants were torn or something else valuable in the pants to the fascist badge!
  13. shinobi
    shinobi 14 October 2017 09: 32 New
    +9
    Funny material, the author is funny. And what, will the Chinese silently watch how striped frolic on its borders? They didn’t sit in the first Korean, but will they pretend that nothing is happening? Nuclear torpedoes have been canceled or something? They are unlike simpler and more inconspicuous than the MBR, and go guess what boat they are standing on. One hit and the whole AUG striped at the bottom of the South China Sea. And they are far more dangerous than all ICBMs taken together. Next, the rattling of weapons will not work. Russia's weakness is left out of the brackets , with this phrase the expert betrayed himself with giblets.
  14. Ilja2016
    Ilja2016 14 October 2017 12: 11 New
    0
    Quote: andrewkor
    Another "horror story" from a couch expert. I can scribble a dozen options, but only laziness. I would rather read what more active comrades say.

    Agree
  15. Ilja2016
    Ilja2016 14 October 2017 12: 16 New
    +3
    Quote: Snail N9
    Well, let's put it this way: no one knows for sure whether Kim has nuclear warheads suitable for ballistic missiles - this is firstly. Secondly, the DPRK does not have missiles reaching the United States-type islands of Guam. Thirdly, the x-precision of the DPRK missiles plus minus one bast, and even reliability, to hell, half if not more fall in the way or explode, fourthly: the United States will undoubtedly knock a couple of three missiles the way the trajectory Their flight is known and easily controlled.

    Will you shoot down? The beater was found. Sit there overseas and don’t croak. Do you want a second Vietnam?
  16. ventel
    ventel 14 October 2017 12: 27 New
    +2
    Well, I wrote the same thing earlier in comments on this topic, but they persistently objected to me that the PRC and Russia would not allow a conflict. Sorry, but there is at least one person who can analyze the situation only from media articles. There are no such people in the comments, only one Seoul will decipitate Japan and Guam will cover and the last that China will intervene in the conflict. Why so sure.
  17. Dead duck
    Dead duck 14 October 2017 12: 46 New
    +7
    Oh-oh-oh ... they let fear in ...
    I can’t eat already ... all in thought ... what laughing
  18. nivander
    nivander 14 October 2017 12: 49 New
    +2
    another sprat chubat scribble in the style of the Yamerik is all the more powerful --- it’s interesting how the author proposes to solve the problem of 90 thousand special forces soldiers who just run 30 km to Seoul in less than half a day or the fact that the PRC will remain silent in a rag while its prestige crawls under the baseboard
  19. aries2200
    aries2200 14 October 2017 14: 16 New
    +1
    some kind of nonsense .... but just for the sake of preserving the ecology in the region, Beijing and Moscow will use their air defense against amers. and then the debate in the united nations and so on
  20. HAM
    HAM 14 October 2017 14: 26 New
    0
    If everything were as the author describes, then we would surely forget the word DPRK, as we forgot Libya, Yugoslavia, Iraq. But what then holds back the Americans?? The battle with the tongues is in full swing, all the same, the Americans know that what we don’t know is all analytics ..
    1. Normal ok
      Normal ok 14 October 2017 15: 18 New
      +2
      Quote: HAM
      If everything was as the author describes, then we would probably forget the word DPRK, as we forgot Libya, Yugoslavia, Iraq. But what is holding back the Americans?

      It’s just that the United States used to solve the problems of Libya, Yugoslavia and Iraq, and now the time for Un has come.
  21. motorized rifle
    motorized rifle 14 October 2017 15: 32 New
    +2
    I read the article and the comments, I have a question: By what right do the USA want to destroy a sovereign state? Everything else is nonsense! Talking about how and what the Americans use to destroy a state that is far away from them and which itself does not attack them. You know, it’s worth it, this is insanity. The easiest form of which:Are you ready for the Russian guys to die for the sweet life of the possessed Kim Son of Grandson? Let me remind fellow Jews this is next to Russia. Why don't the states dump a couple of tens of kilotons on Hezbollah, huh? No? That's it!
  22. TOR2
    TOR2 14 October 2017 15: 49 New
    +2
    For in the first minutes of the northerners' artillery hunting will begin from the air of South Korea and the United States. In the conditions of their complete domination in the air, the extermination of artillery of the North will become a matter of extremely short time. Well, the counter-battery fight, how could without it.
    I would like to remind the author that the Koreans workaholans are significantly different from the fanfares from the Middle East. For starters, the hunt for artillery can very ambiguously end for aviators. The terrain is complex, besides it’s also wooded, so it’s very problematic to visually detect anything, it remains to eat up on equipment (exceptional and advanced). This is where the fun begins. The Koreans will drive various auto junk and other nonsense onto the slopes, besides there is such an interesting thing radar corner reflectors, thermal imitators and other means. Thousands of them can rivet them. But that is not all. The area will suddenly be saturated with MANPADS. Where from? The correct answer is from the "camel". The caravan came from the Middle East. From the looted warehouses of the Syrian and Iraqi armies. laughing
    As for China, it will not have much choice. They do not need so much Fakusim nearby. And in case of infection of their territory, the assembly production at them is quickly curtailed. What this will turn out is not difficult to guess. As for our country, we will have to close the very north of North Korea. The "axes" that fly to Korea with a 90% probability will be from a nuclear warhead. In the case of a successful "clumsy coven" we will get an infection of our own territory, followed by a surge in oncological diseases and the extinction of a population with which it is not important with us anyway. So there is no choice either. We’ll have to bring this crap on the way up.
    The bold point that the author puts in the existence of North Korea can easily turn into a comma.
    1. Nagaibak
      Nagaibak 15 October 2017 08: 28 New
      0
      TOR2 "The area will suddenly be saturated with MANPADS."
      Tor))) they produce MANPADS in large quantities. They put them where necessary and where not necessary.
      1. Nagaibak
        Nagaibak 15 October 2017 08: 34 New
        0
        Here is an example of installing MANPADS on tanks.))))
        1. TOR2
          TOR2 15 October 2017 13: 03 New
          0
          On the tank mounted MANPADS "Hwa Song Jung", this is a copy of the "Needle". According to its characteristics, it lags far behind its counterpart. So, Koreans cannot do without a “caravan”.
          1. Nagaibak
            Nagaibak 15 October 2017 21: 26 New
            0
            TOR2 "The Hwa Song Jung MANPADS is installed on the tank, this is a copy of the Needle. According to its characteristics, it lags far behind its counterpart. So Koreans cannot do without a" caravan. "
            Maybe, maybe only now, I deeply doubt that the North Korean leadership does not calculate all the points. They know their weaknesses and strengths. They understand that they will lose the war in the air. So they will balance due to something else. I don’t think they will shy away from Guam. But on the bases of Americans in South Korea and Japan do not FIG. And someone calculated that they could shy away from nuclear weapons on aircraft carrier groups or on American planes during raids. There is no need for special accuracy.))) The main thing is that it would be a massive raid.)))
    2. The comment was deleted.
      1. TOR2
        TOR2 15 October 2017 13: 10 New
        0
        Quote: lesabotage
        Foreign Ministry will express concern and everyone will tryndet

        This is truly their favorite pastime. But there are situations after which not a single PR-laundry of the Kremlin's jackets will be removed. An example is South Ossetia and Donbass. They would merge everything with great pleasure.
        1. The comment was deleted.
          1. TOR2
            TOR2 15 October 2017 17: 51 New
            +1
            Quote: lesabotage
            South Ossetia was improvised from the actions of the commander of the 58th army. And our eagles-politicians all pissed off

            There is such a wonderful documentary, Lost Day. If you didn’t look, be sure to look. At the Ministry of Defense, everything was already worked out for this case. MO was waiting for a team from the Kremlin, and there began a squabble between the pro-Western and the national lobby. GDP was just in Beijing at the opening of the Olympics. What he said through a closed communication channel will remain a mystery. But after that, “iPhone and K” tightened their tails and ears and the power phase began. With a delay which cost many lives.
            With the Su-24 there is no less interesting story. As a result, it turned out that a traitor was sitting at the helm of the F-16. And data on the upcoming state. Our coup was handed over to Erdogan. According to unconfirmed reports, the pilot was shot along with other conspirators who were going to bring down his plane.
  23. alma
    alma 14 October 2017 18: 01 New
    +2
    Read. On our part, the first thing that begs it is the massive use of electronic warfare against attacking means of the Coalition (read - USA) Formally - to cover our territory, so that the superfluous does not fly over. In reality, in order to complicate the task of the Coalition as much as possible, because we are not a party to the conflict, and cannot openly get involved. By the way, the United States in Syria is acting against us (complicating the work by all possible means)
  24. LAWNER
    LAWNER 14 October 2017 18: 13 New
    0
    Hitler .... chemical weapons ..... B..b ... nonsense ..... And Ariets and Blond are afraid of the incomprehensible ....
    The Aryans were told: when you try to use bacteriological weapons, the question will be ..... when will they be able to re-populate the territory of Germany ...
    Blond with all the intelligence does not know what type of nuclear weapon was tested .... In the ass graphite bombs, when 95% of the population glow.
  25. Old26
    Old26 14 October 2017 18: 20 New
    +3
    Quote: xetai9977
    Pretty competent article. Most likely it will be so. In fact, the Eun regime does not deserve a different fate.

    Yes, pretty competent. But Un’s supporters will not agree with her.
    Although there are inaccuracies in the actual side. The Ticonderoga cruiser, although it has 122 cells, can never carry 120 cruise missiles. This means that it actually must remain unarmed, without anti-aircraft, anti-ship and anti-submarine missiles .. Typical load is 26 Tomahawks, but even if you reduce the arsenal of anti-aircraft missiles by half and leave only 40, the number of cruise missiles will be under 70, but nothing not 120, like the author.

    Quote: Deadush
    It’s all right. laughing
    1. Nuclear plants in South Korea are not counted.
    Even YaBCH is not necessary that they would arrange an armageddad.
    2. Ground Army.
    Of course, they won’t reach Yankistan on foot, but they will "march" to the south.
    3. China and Russia.
    They will not sit idly by (when attacking the north). China for sure.


    1. In fact, the stations in South Korea are concentrated in four places. And they are located about 200-400 km from the demilitarized zone.
    Reactors for nuclear power plants, EMNIP, are built on the assumption that the reactor must withstand the fall of an airplane (and by no means light-weight) on it. And at such a distance (200-400 km) conventional North Korean missiles, without nuclear charges, may simply not reach the reactors, and even if they do, this does not mean at all that they have TNT equivalent. as you say, enough for an Armageddian.

    2. Is the North Korean army marching in the south? Are you sure. The point is not only in the number of soldiers, but also in equipping the army. Yes, the land forces of the DPRK are 2 times greater than that of the south, but the equipment of the southerners is an order of magnitude better than that of the northerners. In addition, the DPRK Air Force can not be considered. She compared with the South Korean Air Force no. So it’s not a fact that it’s marching.

    3. China and Russia. Both countries have already expressed their attitude towards the North Korean nuclear missile program by voting in the UN Security Council.
    The EMNIP of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China has already stated that if the North Koreans are the first to start, they should not wait for help. If the Americans - then another thing. Russia no longer has a mutual assistance agreement ...

    Quote: Normal ok
    1) NPP power units are designed taking into account the possible fall of an airplane on them. So that they will survive the North Korean artillery. Before the start of the war, the power units of South Korea will be stopped, away from sin.

    The DPRK artillery is not at all involved here. The southerners' nuclear power plant closest to North Korea is 180 km away (Ulchin and Sin-Ulchin NPPs). The rest are at a distance of 300, 350 km or more.

    Quote: Normal ok
    2) The land army, of course, can try to break through the border fortifications but built their Pts. thoroughly. And without the support of artillery, something is unlikely to succeed. Yes, and management will be disrupted.

    Border protection areas northerners may pass but with huge losses for themselves

    Quote: d ^ Amir
    how many times to write .... they will declare a diplomatic flight ... they will load a bomb there more powerfully and will fly over Washington .... and considering that the whole American political bombond will eat up for "surrender" of Un !!!! the effect of the application will be excellent ... at once 80% of the conflicts in the world will end ...

    Again you are about a diplomatic flight with a bomb. Have you at least specified whether there are diplomatic relations between the DPRK and the United States or whether they conduct their affairs through a third country that represents the interests of the DPRK
    Well, I understand, too lazy to look, it’s better to write a break about a diplomatic flight. Although, if you would like, you have learned that THERE ARE NO BETWEEN DPRK and the USA diplomatic relations. So you can throw your diprese with the bomb into the trash

    Quote: shinobi
    Funny material, the author is funny. And what, will the Chinese silently watch how striped frolic on its borders? They didn’t sit in the first Korean, but will they pretend that nothing is happening? Nuclear torpedoes have been canceled or something? They are unlike simpler and more inconspicuous than the MBR, and go guess what boat they are standing on. One hit and the whole AUG striped at the bottom of the South China Sea. And they are far more dangerous than all ICBMs taken together. Next, the rattling of weapons will not work. Russia's weakness is left out of the brackets , with this phrase the expert betrayed himself with giblets.

    You forget that the PRC 2017 and the PRC 1950 are two different countries. And the PRC has already declared in the person of its foreign minister that China will come to the rescue only if the Americans are the first to attack. If the North Koreans are the first, then they can forget about help (except perhaps diplomatic)

    Well, you don’t have to consider the Americans as complete idiots. DPRK nuclear torpedo ???? Do they have it ?? In general, the presence of YaBZ on some missiles with a shell diameter of 80-90 cm is questionable. But sticking YaBZ into a caliber of 533 mm is fantastic. And what, the Americans do not know who can have nuclear torpedoes? Or do you also consider ours to be e.
    1. MadCat
      MadCat 15 October 2017 04: 04 New
      0
      Quote: Old26
      And the PRC has already declared in the person of its foreign minister that China will come to the rescue only if the Americans are the first to attack.

      well, they will express concern to the PRC, and they will vote against the United States at the UN, of course it will be very unpleasant but tolerant lol
      1. badens1111
        badens1111 15 October 2017 16: 48 New
        0
        Quote: MadCat
        vote against the United States at the UN, of course it will be sooo unpleasant but tolerant

        And if so, how about tolerant?
        Many practical details and circumstances are deliberately distorted so as not to lead anyone into temptation.

        https://www.vz.ru/world/2017/9...

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N...



        And why, as a preemptive option, something like Kim Jong-un and his generals did not foresee? How to know.https: //cont.ws/@sqsqsq111157/742091
  26. japs
    japs 14 October 2017 19: 44 New
    +5
    ... "Another eminent" analysts "can recall the wonderful forecasts of the past years in the spirit of" Saddam will show them "and" Gaddafi will ask them. "Where are your Saddam and Gaddafi now?" ...
    After reading this, threw ...
    You, the author, to Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev.
  27. Fatoss
    Fatoss 14 October 2017 20: 41 New
    +2
    What are the titles under nicknames and how to get them if not a secret?
  28. askme
    askme 14 October 2017 21: 00 New
    +2
    A very, very stupid person wrote. Sorry, of course. Just a stream of consciousness ... So obvious is everything that is without details.
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 14 October 2017 21: 43 New
      +1
      This is how the war against the DPRK will begin - there details will appear.
    2. ventel
      ventel 15 October 2017 00: 06 New
      +2
      And why do you think stupid. If a person can analyze the available information and express an option for the development of the situation, he is stupid in your opinion. Of course, it’s easier to see through the box how some kind of journalist with a clever look will rub something for what you paid for if the average person was not worried that this would affect him.
      1. MadCat
        MadCat 15 October 2017 04: 06 New
        0
        Quote: ventel
        And why do you think stupid. If a person can analyze the available information and express an option for the development of the situation, he’s your stupid.

        Well, this does not fit with his pink glasses, here's the article and the "stupid".
        1. ventel
          ventel 15 October 2017 09: 50 New
          0
          And where did you see the author's pink glasses that the Americans and South Koreans do not have military means to destroy the military facilities of the northerners. Or are you one hundred percent sure that China will join the DPRK. Are you sure, as some, that Russia should supply new air defense systems and DPRK DPR. Note the author does not hang around in the Capitol but simply analyzed the available information and wrote a possible scenario for the development of the situation.
  29. Protos
    Protos 15 October 2017 00: 02 New
    0
    What nonsense, horror lol
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 15 October 2017 01: 20 New
      0
      Horror will begin when millions of refugees from the DPRK pour over the Chinese border, while on the territory of the DPRK itself there will be a missile bomb and possibly nuclear hell.
  30. Guest171-Again
    Guest171-Again 15 October 2017 02: 05 New
    0
    As a result of World War II, Japan has no right to have its own armed forces. Excluding the forces of "self-defense", all this is regulated by the corresponding papers. And if some strange law is adopted (after all, it happens), what are they better than the DPRK? And about the article .., recalls the Master and Margarita, the passage from the house of sorrow -... do not write more ....
  31. White and fluffy
    White and fluffy 15 October 2017 06: 39 New
    0
    An epigraph would be suitable for this article. If in your opinion a fight is inevitable, hit first and then on the circumstances. or protection. or jogging. The author outlined the probabilistic course of events. In the comments, another set of developments is considered. We’ll see how events will develop.
  32. bandabas
    bandabas 15 October 2017 07: 21 New
    0
    War .... is a war. And do not click in the strategies with the mouse.
  33. Old26
    Old26 15 October 2017 11: 54 New
    0
    Quote: albert
    Whether Kim has nuclear warheads and whether they reach the United States is a 50 to 50 probability, but that’s already a lot. Speaking of accuracy, if Russia and China can help Kim with target designation for both ballistic missiles and air defense missiles. and such help would be more effective than sending soldiers like in the first Korean war. Know, keep A-50 heels in the air near the borders, and give out the coordinates. And let the Yankees try to prove that in this way you will pass.

    Let's take a break from Eun-Myn-Trump-Pampa and everyone else. Let's analyze what you wrote (sorry, stupidity)
    1, Russia and China will help North Korea with target designations for ballistic missiles. True, I can’t even imagine how this can be done online, but what will it do if the missile guidance system itself gives an error of the order of 0,1% of the range? You give accurate target designations for the same Guam, and the missile will miss 3,5-4 km. Yes, even at 2. What can a 50kt warhead be able to do? I’m not even talking about ICBMs. Aim at an American military base in Hawaii or the Pacific coast and miss 5-7-10 km. Even with a 200 ct warhead?

    2. Target designation for air defense. I wonder how you imagine it? Of course, you can keep at the border not only the heels of the A-50, but in general the entire stock, all of our A-50s. I no longer ask how, knowing that the joint Russian-North Korean border is only 2-3 dozen kilometers, you will be there to barrage. So you have to barrage along our sea border. I do not ask if there is enough detection range. But just what will it give when they are not built into the control circuit of these complexes? Where and how will you transfer data? And most importantly, how. Or do you think that the enemy of Eun (Americans, South Koreans and Japanese) will not use electronic warfare? Why are these proposals quite far from reality?

    Quote: Nagaibak
    So much pathos.))) Of course, you can bomb everything.))) But to capture and hold alone bombing will not work.

    I absolutely agree with you. But why? Why "capture"? After all, the task of the Americans is to destroy nuclear missile weapons in the first place. And if Eun “first” or “in response” uses nuclear weapons - there will be no need to conquer anything after nuclear strikes. In extreme cases, there is "cannon fodder" for this - the South Korean military ....

    Quote: Nagaibak
    Here is an example of installing MANPADS on tanks.))))

    The question is how to use these MANPADS in battle and on enemy aircraft located outside the zone of their destruction?

    Quote: alma
    Read. On our part, the first thing that begs it is the massive use of electronic warfare against attacking means of the Coalition (read - USA) Formally - to cover our territory, so that the superfluous does not fly over. In reality, in order to complicate the task of the Coalition as much as possible, because we are not a party to the conflict, and cannot openly get involved. By the way, the United States in Syria is acting against us (complicating the work by all possible means)

    Perhaps the use of electronic warfare. The question is, what is the range of these devices. Will this action complicate the Coalition if their aircraft or ships are at a distance, for example 600 km. In addition, the directional interference is “jamming” primarily North Korea’s electronic equipment

    Quote: Deadush
    About 10 millions of reserves can break a lot of firewood on the isthmus.
    The Japanese, too, did not make sense to sacrifice their lives selflessly at the end of the war with the Yankees ... however, such a people (traditions, spirit and all that).
    The Koreans will not yield to them in their "savvy" and desire to fight for their homeland.
    At one time, the entire united geyropa was against the USSR. In their opinion, we had no chance at all, but history showed the opposite.


    They can break a lot of firewood, nobody argues here. But here 10 million of the reserve is IMHO a somewhat overestimated estimate. Perhaps a 10-million-strong mobilization reserve, but this also seems unrealistic.
    Currently, the figures are approximately the following (for North Korea)
    Armed forces - 1.190.000 people, in t.ch.
    Ground forces - approximately 1.020.000 people
    Navy - 60.000 people
    Air Force - 110,000 people
    Militia - 189,000 people

    RESERVE - about 600,000 people
    Militarized reserve formations - 5.700.000
    Paramilitary formations are local variants of the Red Guard and youth units.
    The question is not whether there are many or few, but how and with what means to arm them. It is good if they (the North Koreans) have enough small arms for all these 6,3 million people. The army transfers its old systems to the reserve (they go into service, including paramilitary units, but not in such a huge amount.
    North Koreans, of course, "will not yield" in the desire to fight for their homeland. The question is different. whether they will continue to fight without leadership or give up.
    In general, the issue of "savvy" and the desire to fight for the homeland is quite complex (albeit very interesting). We heard a lot of speeches by supporters of Saddam and Gaddafi and their desire to fight against the invaders to the end, but it ended very sadly for these leaders. You can recall our recent history. Over 18 years of peaceful construction, a generation has grown that was ready to fight for the Soviet Union and Soviet power, and yet tens and hundreds of thousands were on the side of the enemy. Therefore, it is very difficult to speak here.
    1. badens1111
      badens1111 15 October 2017 12: 13 New
      +2
      Quote: Old26
      Over 18 years of peaceful construction, a generation has grown that was ready to fight for the Soviet Union and Soviet power, and yet tens and hundreds of thousands were on the side of the enemy. Therefore, it is very difficult to speak here.

      If you take your figure of hundreds of thousands, it will turn out that the bulk of those who served among the Nazis are criminals of all stripes, former fists, former white and other .. former. The percentage is small.
      In the case of the DPRK .. that there are no examples when the special operations forces of the DPRK, conducting soy operations against the Republic of Kazakhstan, suddenly surrendered completely, but here are examples of the fact that they fought to the end, the absolute majority, so that the motivation of the North Koreans, against the motivation of the Amers and South Koreans, a very, very big difference.
      Today in service with the DPRK Armed Forces are:

      Short-range missile "Hwason-6", put into operation in 1990. It is an improved modification of the Hwason-5 rocket with a flight range of up to 700 km. It is estimated that between 300 and 600 of these missiles are currently in service;
      The medium-range missile Hwason-7. Adopted in 1997, it can hit targets at a distance of 1300 km;
      Medium-range missile “No-Dong-2”, it was put into service in 2004, its flight range is 2 thousand km;
      Hvason-10 medium-range ballistic missile. It has been in service since 2009, with a range of up to 4,5 thousand km. It is believed that today Pyongyang can have up to 200 of these missiles;
      Hwason-13 intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of up to 7,5 thousand km. It was first shown at the parade in 2012. Hwason 13 can reach the United States, which, of course, is of great concern to the Americans. It should also be noted that the DPRK has already entered the club of space states. At the end of 2012, the Kwanmyonson-3 artificial satellite was launched into orbit. Https: //militaryarms.ru/armii-mira
      / vvooruzhennye-sily-kndr /
      Be that as it may, the damage to the satellites of the USA = RK and Japan, if they get involved in the conflict, will be unacceptable.
      Thus, the armed forces of the DPRK, despite the relatively outdated weapons, have a fairly high combat potential. At the same time, it is obvious that a significant number of various types of military equipment, combined with a developed network of fortifications, will allow North Korean troops to conduct effective military operations even against a numerically superior enemy and in the conditions of its air supremacy.
      Foreign military review. 2017, No.2 S. 8-14
      http://factmil.com/publ/strana/kndr/korejskaja_na
      rodnaja_armija_vooruzhjonnykh_sil_kndr_2017 / 64-1-
      +0
    2. Nagaibak
      Nagaibak 15 October 2017 21: 41 New
      +1
      Old26 “After all, the Americans’s task is to destroy nuclear missile weapons in the first place. And if Eun“ first ”or“ in response ”uses nuclear weapons, they won’t need to conquer anything after nuclear strikes.“ Nuclear weapons are an excuse. But how to make sure that it has ended?))) For any legs.))) The South Korean army will not go far.))) Here everyone says that nuclear weapons will erase the DPRK from the face of the earth. Well, they will burn it out and then what?))) Somewhere I read that large deposits of polymetallic ores were discovered in the DPRK — maybe this is the reason?))) Then they definitely won’t bomb the nuclear weapons.)))
  34. zoolu350
    zoolu350 15 October 2017 13: 37 New
    +1
    The war has not yet started just because the CCP leadership does not guarantee the Fed’s owners that the North Korean submarine will not emerge in the harbor of Los Angeles and will not blow the yoke to the DPRK anthem.
  35. Quzmi4
    Quzmi4 15 October 2017 16: 01 New
    +3
    the author “burned” with a phrase about a weakening Russia.
    But not only that. South Koreans and Japanese - potential victims of the database - feel sorry for him; these guys are right, democratic. And the North Koreans pray at Kimov, which means they are wrong, therefore they are subject to ruthless destruction. It will be good.
    Citizens, gentlemen, comrades! If this is not fascism, then what ?!
  36. Old26
    Old26 15 October 2017 16: 04 New
    0
    Quote: badens1111
    Today in service with the DPRK Armed Forces are:

    Short-range missile "Hwason-6", put into operation in 1990. It is an improved modification of the Hwason-5 rocket with a flight range of up to 700 km. It is estimated that between 300 and 600 of these missiles are currently in service;

    The Hwasong-6 model has a range of about 500 km. It is also called SCUD-C. But the model SCUD-D, which is also called SCUD-ER or Hwasong-7 (the name most likely does not correspond to reality), the range is really 700 km with a reduced warhead. The total number of all issued Hwasong-6 is estimated to be slightly less. In particular, Hwasong-6 - estimated about 200-300 missiles and 30 to 40 launchers. Option SCUD-D / SCUD-ER - its number is estimated at about 5-6 launch and about 40 missiles
    On photo
    1. Hwasong-6 / SCUD-C


    2. SCUD-ER


    Quote: badens1111
    Today in service with the DPRK Armed Forces are:
    The medium-range missile Hwason-7. Adopted in 1997, it can hit targets at a distance of 1300 km;
    Medium-range missile “No-Dong-2”, it was put into service in 2004, its flight range is 2 thousand km;

    The Hwason-7 missile and the Nodong-A missile are the same missile.
    Moreover, the missiles with the name "Nodong" are several completely different missiles
    There were the following modifications:
    • Nodong-A is also known as Hwasong-7. It was in two versions. Modification of "Nodong-A" is sometimes also called "Nodong-1." Flight range 1300 km, weight BG about 1100-1200 kg
    • "There is also a modification of" Nodong-A1, which is also called "Nodong-2." The range of 1500 km, the weight of the BG - 650-700 kg

    In addition to these two modifications of the Hwasong-7 missiles, there were also missiles that had the designation Nodong in the west. This is the Hwasong-10 rocket, designated in the west as Nodong-B or Musudan, and the Hwasong-13 rocket, known as Nodong-S.
    The number of Hwasong-7 missiles is estimated at about 10 launchers and 90 missiles. Although I met the figure of 50 launchers and 200 missiles, but this was an isolated case. Usually 10 launch / 90 missile numbers
    The total number of Musudan missiles is estimated as 6-10 launch and 50 missiles.

    3. "Hwason-7" or "Nodong-A" ("Nodong-1" and "Nodong-2")



    4. "Hwasong-10" or "Musudan"



    Quote: badens1111
    Today in service with the DPRK Armed Forces are:
    Hvason-10 medium-range ballistic missile. It has been in service since 2009, with a range of up to 4,5 thousand km. It is believed that today Pyongyang can have up to 200 of these missiles;

    The Hwasong 10 or Musudan was a rather unsuccessful missile. Its accuracy was very small. At a range of 4000 km, it had a CVO of about 4 km. For a rocket without YABG, it’s the same as letting it go “into milk”. Production was extremely small. According to estimates, production was limited to about 50 units. Some of them (18 units, EMNIP) were delivered to Iran. The weight of the warhead is 1 ton at a range of 2500 km or 650 kg at a range of 4000 km. Figures of 200 units I have never met. But the fact that the production of this rocket lasted less than a year - I had to read. Currently, this missile is being replaced by the Hwason-12 missile with the same characteristics, but more accurate

    5, Hwasong-12 or KN-17


    Quote: badens1111
    Today in service with the DPRK Armed Forces are:
    Hwason-13 intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of up to 7,5 thousand km. It was first shown at the parade in 2012. Hwason 13 can reach the United States, which, of course, is of great concern to the Americans.

    Hwasong 13 was indeed shown in 2012. Received in the west the name "Nodong-S" or KN-08. After 2 years, the parade showed KN-14

    6. Hwasong-13 block 1 (KN-08)

    7. Hwasong-13 block 2 (KN-14)


    But neither one nor the other missile flight tests passed. The first was generally developed in 7 or 8 variants with various engines. Instead, the Hwasong-14 rocket (KN-20) was tested
    1. badens1111
      badens1111 15 October 2017 16: 10 New
      0
      Quote: Old26
      Instead, the Hwasong-14 rocket (KN-20) was tested

      And?
      As Putin recently admitted there, he knew about the presence of nuclear weapons in the DPRK back in 2001, while that stood still and the DPRK did nothing to improve the quality of its missiles, delivery vehicles of a different kind, in general equipment and weapons?
  37. Nemesis
    Nemesis 15 October 2017 17: 00 New
    +3
    The author of the article judges nuclear weapons on the example of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and from here his misconceptions ... One old Soviet X-55 cruise missile, such as the American Tomahawk, carries a 400 kt nuclear warhead, which is more than a hundred times more than each those bombs that the United States dropped in 1945 on Japan ... One such warhead is enough to destroy a country like Israel completely ... So the scale of the destruction in Japan itself from a nuclear strike by North Korea can be much larger than the author imagines ... If we talk about missile defense and air defense of the United States, then their real capabilities are in question. Testing at the training ground is one thing, but real military operations are completely different ... During the war with Iraq, the latest US air defense systems Patriot were not able to fully protect Israel from antediluvian Iraqi missiles, from the time of Khrushchev, and if the missiles carried nuclear warheads in Israel’s place, there would now be burned field ...
    1. Svidetel 45
      Svidetel 45 18 October 2017 01: 41 New
      +1
      Quote: Nemesis
      400 kt warhead, which is more than a hundred times larger than each of those bombs that the US dropped in 1945 on

      400 ct more than 20 ct is not a hundred times, but 20 times.
      1. Nemesis
        Nemesis 18 October 2017 04: 11 New
        +1
        When I wrote, I thought about something else. The bottom line is that a ballistic missile carries a warhead much more powerful than the one that carries a cruise missile. In North Korea, ballistic missiles.
  38. Old26
    Old26 15 October 2017 18: 24 New
    0
    Quote: badens1111
    As Putin recently admitted there, he knew about the presence of nuclear weapons in the DPRK back in 2001, while that stood still and the DPRK did nothing to improve the quality of its missiles, delivery vehicles of a different kind, in general equipment and weapons?

    Vladimir Kryuchkov also knew about the existence of a developed (at least constructively) nuclear device and the Political Bureau of the EMNIP reported on this either in 1989 or in 1990. However, the Koreans at that time did not yet have the required amount of weapons materials
    Putin may have known about the presence of nuclear weapons in 2001, but the question is not about nuclear weapons, about missiles. What about North Korean missiles?
    Of course, they did everything to improve the quality. But do not forget that in the first place they had to go through all the stages of creating rocket weapons. Start with reengineering, i.e. from the “Reverse” design based on Soviet missiles received from the Middle East Scud. Therefore, all of his first missiles were very primitive, just as the same SCADs were primitive in comparison with modern missiles. And all the first DPRK missiles - HWASONG-5 и HWASONG-6 in fact, these are the same old Soviet SCADAS. Even a more "advanced system - SCAD-ER (or" Hwasong-9 ") - in fact the same ordinary SCAD with an increased range and, accordingly, tanks and a reduced mass of the warhead

    Further, more modern North Korean NODONG missiles (Hwasong-7 and Hwasong-8) already had more powerful engines, larger dimension engines and a larger diameter body. I will not make assumptions, but most likely the assistance was provided, most likely not quite legally by representatives of the Makeyevka Design Bureau (There was information that a certain number of missile officers from this design bureau were detained while trying to leave for North Korea). But in any case, help-help, but North Korean rocketers themselves studied. It was necessary to pull up the industry, to master new technologies. Nevertheless, in a number of North Korean missiles engines or their clones from Soviet SLBMs are used, including and R-27.
    In addition, UN sanctions extended to materials for engines, as well as instruments for guidance systems. The conditions were such that the accuracy was not higher than 0,1% of the range, i.e. 0,001.
    Over time, the quality of the products also changed, and the accuracy certainly improved. There are already interesting developments, in particular the use of synthetic fibers for winding cases.
    The latest types of their missiles are already based on engines created on the basis of the RD-250 (engines from the Soviet R-36 / 8K67 ICBMs or Cyclone-type launch vehicles).
    Fortunately for all, the DPRK lacks a fleet of command-measuring complex ships. And this means that having calculated theoretically they cannot practically check the parameters of their missiles. When launching along a steep path to a relatively short range, confirmation of range calculations can be obtained, but it is impossible to verify how the rocket will actually behave at the maximum range and what will happen to the warheads. Only when firing at maximum range.

    What do we get as a result. Theoretically, some types of missiles can reach the United States (Alaska, Hawaii, the continental United States), but what in reality - no one knows ...

    As for other delivery vehicles. Now they have missiles for submarines, but North Korea has only one of these boats, with one launching shaft. The launch range of this product is approximately 1500 km. The autonomy of the boat is such that it can operate in a radius of the order of 1500-2000 km. That is, the range is not enough.
    Now, according to certain sources in the DPRK, they are either planning, or the construction of a series of 4-6 boats with three missiles has begun. Already a larger displacement, with greater autonomy and for longer-range missiles. As far as one can judge, these will be the new Bukkuksong-3 missiles.

    As for other delivery vehicles, they are essentially not there. Do not count the Chinese clones of Soviet IL-28 as delivery vehicles.
    As for other weapons. You can talk about them, but for this you should ask specific questions, because otherwise it is all very difficult. Talk about what the interlocutor is interested in, not knowing what he is interested in
    1. Gransasso
      Gransasso 15 October 2017 18: 37 New
      0
      Quote: Old26
      As for other weapons.



      Hello .. Probably the biggest problem for the USA / South Korea is the possibility of a North Korean shelling of ordinary artillery and rzzo ... than these are quite archaic BR ... can you tell us what you know on this topic?
    2. badens1111
      badens1111 15 October 2017 18: 43 New
      0
      Quote: Old26
      As for other weapons.

      How do you like that?
      Forced to repeat, but still ..
      And if so, how about tolerant?
      Many practical details and circumstances are deliberately distorted so as not to lead anyone into temptation.
      https://www.vz.ru/world/2017/9...
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N...
      And why, as a preemptive option, something like Kim Jong-un and his generals did not foresee? How to know.https: //cont.ws/@sqsqsq111157/742091
  39. Old26
    Old26 16 October 2017 00: 30 New
    0
    Quote: zulusuluz
    And about the probable breakthrough of one missile with a nuclear warhead to the United States, did you think? This will be a complete failure of US policy, especially against the background of Trump's statements about 97% of missiles being shot down ...

    Koreans can simultaneously launch 8 intercontinental missiles across the USA (they simply don’t have any more. Conveyors to deliver the missile to the position area and set it on the launch pad. The Americans have about 40-44 interceptors. That is, the ratio of 5 interceptors per missile (not yet tested to the maximum range.) In your opinion, 5 interceptors will hit one missile without anything, without a missile defense missile defense?

    Quote: Gransasso
    Quote: Old26
    As for other weapons.

    Hello .. Probably the biggest problem for the USA / South Korea is the possibility of a North Korean shelling of ordinary artillery and rzzo ... than these are quite archaic BR ... can you tell us what you know on this topic?

    I'll try, but only tomorrow, more precisely this morning. But I emphasize that all this will be according to open data, incl. and reference books, and of course it will be my IMHO, although built on real data.

    Quote: badens1111
    Quote: Old26
    As for other weapons.

    How do you like that?
    Forced to repeat, but still ..
    And if so, how about tolerant?
    Many practical details and circumstances are deliberately distorted so as not to lead anyone into temptation.
    https://www.vz.ru/world/2017/9...
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N...
    And why, as a preemptive option, something like Kim Jong-un and his generals did not foresee? How to know.https: //cont.ws/@sqsqsq111157/742091

    What can I say about this, comrade. IMHO the author of this publication, the link to which you gave has read a lot, including and Tom Clancy. It is there (EMNIP in the book and the film "All Fears of the World") that the atomic charge is delivered to the port and there it is blown up.
    What can be said from this text. In principle, the author is right, it is necessary to inflict maximum damage to the enemy, this is an axiom. The question is that no one can say where their ICBMs can fly and what their accuracy will be. So far it was only that in one of the flights it was by no means at the maximum altitude (equivalent to about 5000 km of range), the payload was something around 750 kg. In the second test, when the height of the EMNIP was reached at 3700 km, which is equivalent to about 7500 km of the range, the load was generally 150 kg. What the North Koreans can “load” a load of 600 kg into is unknown, but I don’t think that their nuclear charges were washed so compact and perfect as ours or American ones. They probably can put a head into 650 kg and that last tested 150 kt charge. But in 150 kg - I'm afraid that nothing.
    With what accuracy a North Korean rocket will fly to San Diego (if it will fly at all) - no one knows. But even if they succeeded in doubling the accuracy, the KVO would still be about 8000 km away. Even if they managed to increase it by 4 times, it would still be 4 km. The base where the ships are based (destroyers, transports, boats - this is a zone 2-5 km long and 6-3 km wide. Can something incapacitate such a charge with such a blunder on the territory of the base - you know, it's quite complicated.

    As for the delivery of the charge on the ship to the territory of this base.
    Well, firstly, the author clearly does not know about the joint Soviet-American experiment, when the presence of nuclear weapons on a ship was determined remotely from a helicopter. I think that North Korean ammunition is louder than the Soviet and American ammunition in the late 80s when this experiment was conducted. Over nearly 30 years, both instruments and detection methods have improved. So I think, even without delaying the fishing trawler, with a high probability this charge will be detected.
    The second one. Suppose that a North Korean trawler managed to lead an American and get away from the ships carrying out the blockade. And it was possible to reload in Manila on some vessel. What's next? You do not think that the Americans will "sleep"? And is this little boat just going to the base?
    On the diagram in red - the path which the ship must be forgiven before it enters the zone where the combat and landing ships are concentrated. And this is about 10-12 km. The zone itself is about 5 x 3 km (green zone). Blue shows the air base. I am afraid that civilian ships will be wrapped 20-30 kilometers from the naval base.

    .
  40. Old26
    Old26 16 October 2017 12: 09 New
    0
    So comrade GransassoI’ll try to answer your question, what
    The biggest problem for the USA / South Korea is the possibility of the North Korean shelling of the Seoul with ordinary artillery and RSZO

    What can I say. Surely yes. The problem will be quite substantial, especially at the first stage. But how long this problem will last is very difficult to say.
    To begin with, the DPRK has a large number of artillery systems, meaning artillery itself, mortars and MLRS. Estimates are different in different sources. I will give some of them. In particular, the directory “Military Balance-2017” contains the following numbers (without breakdown by type).
    • Barrel artillery - 8500 guns
    • Mortars - about 7500 mortars of 82 mm, 120 mm, 140 mm (North Korean) and 160 mm caliber. In principle, they can be ignored with good conscience when it comes to Seoul
    • MLRS - 5100 units.
    That is a total of 21100 units

    There are other numbers. For example, that the number of artillery is 13000 (that's all - and artillery, and mortars, and MLRS). There was such a figure
    • More than 10400 artillery barrels, including, including 3500 towed and 4400 self-propelled.
    • 7500 mortars
    • More than 2500 MLRS units.
    There were also the number of MLRS - 4800. The question is rather slippery and ambiguous. The fact is that much of the obsolete weapons is transferred to the Workers 'and Peasants' Red Guard, which is part of the national forces, but is essentially a militia. For example, they can also see our old Katyushas on a trailer towed by a tractor and many other “rarities”. But they are sometimes taken into account in publications as existing ones.
    Here, for example, the North Korean army and the militia are armed with about 3774 MLRS of 107 mm caliber (produced under a Chinese license), there are about 100 "purely Chinese such systems and about 50 of our RPU-14s. That is, about 4000 systems. But how many of them are in It’s hard to say now how many militias are in the militia. You can only find data about the year 2010 with a breakdown by formations, and even then without a guarantee. They can often be deleted from weapons that threaten Seoul, because their maximum flight range is up to 10 km. To Seoul, in the closest place to DMZ - about 28 km. And then not to Seoul itself, but to the outskirts of that conglomeration that Seoul has now turned into. What is the density of buildings there, and population density - I do not know.
    In fact, it turns out that out of the total number of guns and MLRS, only 130-mm M-46 and their Chinese clones, individual 152-mm systems when firing with an active-missile projectile can reach Seoul. And even then to the outskirts. And almost everything.
    All that remains is a 240-mm MLRS with a range of 40-45 km, a 300-mm KN-09 MLRS with a range of up to 180 km (how many are HZ, but since the system is new, I don’t think so much) and 170- mm / 180 mm self-propelled guns "Koksan" with a firing range of 45 to 60 km. The biggest minus in these self-propelled guns is that they can make 1-2 shots in 5 minutes. Their number is estimated to be about 60 units.
    Where and how many of them will be concentrated, I can’t say right now, I need to look at the materials, but it is unlikely that they will all be concentrated in one place, although who knows their Koreans.
    The composition of the troops of each echelon and the presence of brigades of self-propelled guns, MLRS and artillery are also known from the open press. But all these corps of the first or second echelons are located along the entire demilitarized zone with a length of 250 km.
    In addition, it is difficult to believe the words of the same North Koreans that they will turn Seoul into a fiery hell. Yes, civilian casualties will be enormous, but having 200 volley fire systems and 60 self-propelled guns empty, it is extremely difficult to turn a city with dimensions of about 80 by 85 km into a "fire hell".

    The rest of the breakdown by the possible number and photographs of arythillery and MLRS - in the evening

    Ask questions to make it easier for me to navigate
    1. Gransasso
      Gransasso 16 October 2017 23: 21 New
      0
      Hello , Old26 hi

      Thank you for the detailed answer ... otherwise there is a lot of lyrics about the countless artillery sweeps sweeping Seoul with a fiery tornado and few real figures



      It turns out that Seoul is actually threatened by essentially several hundreds of barrels and MLRS ... located in the area under close scrutiny of both the South Caucasus and the USA for 60 years already ...

      Not such an impossible task in the sense of suppressing most of them with a preemptive strike



      And the question is what is the real combat capability of the North Korean army ... I’m not even talking about weapons .. they are mostly antiques .... namely, how they will behave in the absence of communication and commands ... and at all levels ... everything closes there on one person ... and communications, will be the primary goal ...


      History says that in such modes with the initiative it is very bad in a critical situation ... and usually panic right away
  41. srha
    srha 16 October 2017 14: 39 New
    +1
    The author does not seem to know the indicators of the "effectiveness" of the bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999. "NATO made 35 sorties, more than 219 bombs and missiles were dropped and fired," and "23 military personnel and 000 Ministry of Internal Affairs personnel died directly from the actions of NATO aviation" (wiki)
  42. Kostadinov
    Kostadinov 16 October 2017 15: 32 New
    0
    On October 2, 1950, the Korean War had already been waged for more than 3 months, so it didn’t hit; it was launched at the initiative of Mao Tse Dong. The United States intervened in the internal Korean civil war from day one.
    Falklandy, Damanski and Kashmir are not attacks on strategic nuclear deterrence weapons or on the command of a nuclear power.
    The DPRK managers have no illusions that it is possible to bargain for maintaining the regime in response to the rejection of the nuclear program. Of course, Washington can accept such conditions, but the whole world experience shows that after disarmament it will nevertheless destroy both the regime and the DPRK. The war, if it begins, will be total for life and death.
    If, after all, the United States dares to attack the DPRK, there will be no artillery terror of Seoul. The main threat to the United States, besides the nuclear weapons of the DPRK, is ground forces. In the previous war, the United States fought for three months against the 100 thousandth North Korean army with absolute supremacy in the air and sea and with varying success. Now the correlation of forces has changed much and on a side that is not better for the USA and its allies, so the war can last more than three years and end for the USA in no better way than in 1953. Tactical nuclear weapons will not help much against the KPA ground forces on the battlefield either . The U.S. Navy and aircraft, on the other hand, are excellent targets for the tactical nuclear weapons of Koreans.
    The death of the DPRK and the extermination of its population is not so simple although the entire US nuclear arsenal will be decided to be used only for this purpose.
    But what will happen to the United States only after one or several successful nuclear strikes against their cities is not easy to predict.
    The fact that it is not difficult to predict is that Trump the Americans themselves will judge and that several more powers will very quickly receive nuclear weapons from the DPRK.
  43. Mikuduk
    Mikuduk 16 October 2017 18: 02 New
    0
    Quote: Old26

    2. The point is not only in the number of soldiers, but also in equipping the army. Yes, the land forces of the DPRK are 2 times greater than that of the south, but the equipment of the southerners is an order of magnitude better than that of the northerners. So it’s not a fact that it’s marching.

    On the banks of an unknown river, the Spaniards came across a detachment of about a hundred armed Araucans. Araucans attacked, and several times numerically superior to them, the Spaniards suffered heavy losses. Nothing of the kind has happened in America over the 45 years of the conquistadors. (C)

    And such examples, in the wars of the history of mankind, well, just a great many!
  44. Elevator
    Elevator in the building 16 October 2017 20: 15 New
    0
    Sorry, but in my childhood, “plastic armies” were more justified and competently “waged” battles .. Author, you’re definitely preparing an article for VO, and not a ladies’ weekly there ..? Although what I mean, the FSE was so, infa weaving - that's exactly how Hollywood won, for sure. By the way, well, it's a secret, but will there be "Avengers on Enterprise"?
    A couple of questions, in addition to the many voiced above, what will North Korean sabotage groups do in the states and the south? And what will Iran do?
  45. Old26
    Old26 16 October 2017 22: 57 New
    0
    Quote: Mikuduk
    And such examples, in the wars of the history of mankind, well, just a great many!

    There are really many examples. You can recall the Soviet partisans who fought against the regular German army. But everything is changing. And now, it’s worth remembering that war will not be a wall-to-wall war. There will be a war of machines, a remote war, a war of technology. And here the numerical superiority of the North Koreans will be leveled by the technological advantage of the South.

    Quote: Kostadinov
    In the previous war, the United States fought for three months against the 100 thousandth North Korean army with absolute supremacy in the air and sea and with varying success. Now the correlation of forces has changed much and on a side not better for the USA and its allies, so the war can last more than three years and end for the USA in a worse way than in 1953.

    Do not forget that the weather in that war was not made by the army of northerners, but by Chinese volunteers and Soviet pilots. Now Now, the balance of power has really changed and not for the better for the DPRK, and not for the United States. Russia will no longer be fighting in its time on the side of the DPRK. As with high probability and the PRC. But on the US side will be both South Korea and Japan. Two countries are quite highly developed in technological and industrial terms. For which the DPRK with its continuously developing nuclear missile program, like a bone in the throat.
    Victims will be, and huge on both sides. I do not know if you are aware that approximately 100% of North Korean forces are concentrated on the North Korean side of the demilitarized zone at a depth of about 60 km.

    1st echelon is 4 infantry and 1 artillery corps. I will not speak about the number of divisions and artillery brigades yet.
    Behind it is the second echelon, more powerful with the EMNIP 2 mechanized corps and one tank corps. This echelon was intended to take Seoul, after the death of the first echelon, or rather its part, which will be in front of Seoul. Given that from DMZ to the borders of the Seoul conglomeration, less than 30 km means, at least there, North Koreans expected to put at least an infantry corps. That is, there will be a lot of blood, but none of this will happen if the Americans attack first. If Eun, then he will no longer be able to count on China’s help. And the Americans are very likely to provoke the DPRK to launch its first strike.
    1. Svidetel 45
      Svidetel 45 18 October 2017 01: 30 New
      +1
      Quote: Old26
      the numerical superiority of the North Koreans will be leveled by the technological advantage of the South.

      For the past many years, the US has been “leveling out" its technical advantage in Afghanistan, and nothing at all.
  46. Old26
    Old26 16 October 2017 23: 42 New
    0
    So, comrade Gransasso, if you’re still not tired of studying North Korean technology, we’ll start with the most massive 107-mm MLRS

    1. Towable 107 mm PU


    2. 107-mm PU on the chassis of the truck "SUNGARI"


    3. 107-mm PU on the chassis of the truck "SUNGARI-61NA" with MANPADS


    4. 107-mm PU on the chassis of the BTR "323"


    5. 107-mm PU on the BTR "323" chassis with a heavy machine gun


    6. 107-mm PU on the BTR "323" chassis with a heavy machine gun and MANPADS


    7. 107-mm launcher on the chassis of the armored personnel carrier "M-1992"


    And the famous Katyusha for a snack, but only on a car or tractor trailer
    1. Gransasso
      Gransasso 17 October 2017 00: 05 New
      0
      Quote: Old26
      So, comrade Gransasso, if you’re still not tired of learning North Korean technology



      Not tired of course .. the topic is topical ... and actually little studied .. few people want to figure out what is real there .. and they use Wikipedia numbers ..


      Honestly .. not impressive what he saw ... archaic in god knows what state



      By the way .. there is some information about what and when the exercises were conducted by the army of the SK? .. I mean real exercises .. but not ceremonial-ostentatious and agricultural work ..
  47. Old26
    Old26 17 October 2017 09: 29 New
    0
    Quote: Gransasso
    Honestly .. not impressive what he saw ... archaic in god knows what state

    By the way .. there is some information about what and when the exercises were conducted by the army of the SK? .. I mean real exercises .. but not ceremonial-ostentatious and agricultural work ..

    Well, then the dashing trouble began. These are products created in the 50s. In my opinion, even the landing party does not have RPU-14 (they were in the 60s - 70s. And they, as you see, have a lot of them.

    As for the exercises, right now I can’t say directly, but there was no information about them, although I could be mistaken. As for the more modern - this is in the evening. By the way, in the section of self-propelled gun mounts there will be a photograph representing how it is customary to say "gloomy, but not Teutonic, but Juche genius." Self-propelled gun with three, as I understand it, judging by the photo by large-caliber (EMNIP caliber 340 mm) recoilless guns. Why IT is needed and what is its niche - the mystery behind seven seals
  48. Selevc
    Selevc 17 October 2017 11: 39 New
    +2
    There are many comments about how the army and specifically North Korean nuclear weapons are outdated or primitive - but why doesn’t anyone want to think about how China could secretly help create DPRK and nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles? Eun himself and his disassembly with the United States are profitable for the Chinese comrades ... As long as the Yankees toil with Eun he will seriously not be in China and especially not in Russia ...
    Moreover, Trump did a great stupid thing by bringing enmity with Eun to the extreme point - now it’s too late for America to retreat without losing face ... If the US can not really do anything with atomic Eun, then tomorrow another 20 countries in the world will acquire nuclear weapons as a guarantee of the security of the ruling modes !!! And talk of a global nuclear strike against Russia or China will all the more look like a normal mattress chatter no more !!! As they say empty chatter in a bad game !!!
    In general - I think the United States is unlikely to attack Una ... They have long weighed all the risks - they like to fight with security guarantees for themselves and minimal risks of major losses - but here there is neither one nor the other !!!
  49. Kostadinov
    Kostadinov 17 October 2017 12: 05 New
    0
    Koreans can simultaneously launch 8 intercontinental missiles across the USA (they simply don’t have any more. Conveyors to deliver the missile to the position area and set it on the launch pad. The Americans have about 40-44 interceptors. That is, the ratio of 5 interceptors per missile (not yet tested to the maximum range.) In your opinion, 5 interceptors will hit one missile without anything, without a missile defense missile defense?

    With the help of 8 transporters, you can deliver to the positioning area and install on the launch pad any number of missiles in peacetime in a minute readiness for launch. They can be there for months and they can be changed after some period of time. Any number of missiles can be installed in the mines in maximum readiness for launch. All the same, Hwason-14 was fired along a hinged path to simulate the maximum range (10,5 thousand kilometers), while American missile defense missiles were never fired against ICBMs with a range of more than 6 thousand km. The Unha space rocket also successfully flew 2 times to its “full range” and a nuclear explosion at an altitude of 200-300 km may have not very pleasant consequences for vital US systems. I wonder where you got the information that the Korean ICBMs have no means of overcoming missile defense or maneuvering combat units?
    It is quite possible to imagine such a scenario when not only 8, but 30–40 missiles fly off to the USA and only half of them intercept missiles and half of the rest of the ICBMs work as expected. I think that this scenario is very optimistic for the American missile defense and maybe a bit of damage will not be fatal for the United States. But Trump is never forgiven.
  50. Old26
    Old26 17 October 2017 17: 26 New
    0
    Quote: Kostadinov
    With the help of 8 transporters, you can deliver to the positioning area and install on the launch pad any number of missiles in peacetime in a minute readiness for launch.

    Yah? And how many hours can missiles be in this readiness? A few hours, a day or two? Especially in minute readiness. LEARN THE MATCH !!!!

    Quote: Kostadinov
    They can be there for months and they can be changed after some period of time.

    And why not for years? Walk like that for a big one. In the USSR, such missiles with maximum readiness could be a couple of days, well, it's NORTH KOREAN ROCKETS UNA. They can be in this degree of readiness for months. Until the fuel finally corrodes their fuel tanks and bodies ...

    Quote: Kostadinov
    Any number of missiles can be installed in the mines in maximum readiness for launch. All the same, Hwason-14 was fired along the hinged path to simulate the maximum range (10,5 thousand kilometers), while American missile defense missiles were never fired against ICBMs with a range of more than 6 thousand kilometers.

    You can place any number of missiles in the mines with a North Korean industry productivity of 4-6 missiles per month. And all this should be placed in mines, which the North Koreans do not yet have. But you can place them in mines that are not there. In any quantity
    tested it along a hinged path. And the height of the hinged was 3700 km EMNIP. Elementary knowledge of the subject says that when shooting along a hinged trajectory, the range (equivalent) is TWO APOGEY. An elementary task from a second-year school course. Multiply 3700 km by 2. So what is 10500 km? Despite the fact that the last test was at a payload of 150 kg. Here you can’t stick a nuclear warhead into this mass.

    Quote: Kostadinov
    but American missile defense missiles have never been used against ICBMs with a range of more than 6 thousand kilometers.

    Are you sure about that? And how is intercepting ICBMs with a range of 6000 km different from intercepting ICBMs with a range of 10000 km ??. In addition, the North Koreans have never been tested to the maximum range. It is not known how much these missiles will fly off in real launch (not theoretically, but really), how BBs will behave at speeds different from those that were when shooting along a hinged path. And in general, what will be the quo ...

    Quote: Kostadinov
    The Unha space rocket also successfully flew 2 times to its “full range” and a nuclear explosion at an altitude of 200-300 km may have not very pleasant consequences for vital US systems.

    And to a height of 200-300 km, the holy spirit will abandon the nuclear warhead, or "the great spirit of Juche"? Do you even know what mass load Eunha-3 threw? Besides Eunha, not Unha? Of course, to place a nuclear warhead on a rocket, which out of 4 successfully flew only two - the top of wisdom .... And what are the pleasant consequences for the United States will have a 3-10 kt charge explosion at an altitude of 20-2 hundred kilometers? Or do you still live the dreams and data of the 3s, when electricity was cut off from the Americans? half a century has already passed, technologies and means of protection have changed, and most importantly, Koreans do not have such miniaturized warheads when 60-200 megatons can be shoved at 1,5 kg. Neither the Americans nor we have such warheads ...

    Quote: Kostadinov
    I wonder where you got the information that the Korean ICBMs have no means of overcoming missile defense or maneuvering combat units ?.

    Do you think that with a load of a couple of hundred kilograms, even at half a ton, you can stuff a North Korean warhead and means to overcome missile defense? LEARN THE MATCH when real means of overcoming missile defense appeared on Soviet ICBMs, and not broadcast about the genius of the North Koreans. who have experienced a nuclear charge 6 times and ICBMs 2 times already have everything on it.
    Maneuvering combat units in service NO ONE ELSE IN THE WORLD, including both in the USA and in Russia. They are being tested, moreover, only as demonstrators of technology, and not REAL BATTLE BLOCKS

    Quote: Kostadinov
    It is quite possible to imagine such a scenario when not half, but 8–30 missiles fly to the United States and missile defense is intercepted only by half of them and half of the rest of the ICBMs will work as it should ..

    But what a trifle, talking about 30-40 ICBMs. Let's get 300-400 or 3000-4000. Damn, at least read open data about the presence and quantity of medium-range missiles in North Korea that have been produced for more than one year. And here after 2 tests in July you are already betting on 30-40 North Korean ICBMs. And do not forget that Korea is not Russia. It’s impossible to bring ships close to Russia with the same “Standard” that can shoot missiles on takeoff. With the North Koreans, this number can pass and the “standards” can hit the target even before it picks up speed inaccessible to these anti-missiles .. Those missiles that they do not reach will intercept the GBI on the North American continent.

    Quote: Kostadinov
    I think that this scenario is very optimistic for the American missile defense and maybe a bit of damage will not be fatal for the United States. But Trump is never forgiven.

    Think of

    Quote: Selevc
    There are many comments about how the army and specifically North Korean nuclear weapons are outdated or primitive - but why doesn’t anyone want to think about how China could secretly help create DPRK and nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles?

    Well, the legs of North Korean nuclear weapons grow from China and the USSR. But as for the means of delivery - there is NONE A North Korean missile that would have Chinese roots. Soviet - yes, but not Chinese. Secretly help - this is how? Whisper nuclear secrets in your ear? Or create a nuclear missile industry?