Military Review

Only NATO's nuclear power saves the West from the Russian invasion

53
As Robert Farley believes, the NATO states “escaped” from Russia with only one: nuclear forces. Nuclear deterrence concept worked in 1949, and it still works now.




Robert Farley - publicist, writer, art. Lecturer at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Trade at the University of Kentucky. In a new article for "The National Interest" He expressed the following thought: the threat of "strategic nuclear strikes" on the Soviet Union jointly by France, Britain and the United States in response to the traditional attack stopped Moscow. The serious threat of a similar response to Moscow during the Cold War played a decisive role in the policy of "containment".

Recently, a rand brain war game simulated a possible Russian attack on the Baltic states. The game showed how NATO would withstand the proposed occupation by the Russian troops of the Baltic.

In essence, NATO supported the political commitment to the old idea of ​​expanding any conflict, bringing it beyond the limits of the war that the Soviets would like to wage.

Today, as in the 1949 year, the analyst believes, NATO "offers" Russia containment through the threat of further escalation of the conflict.

The fact is that from the very moment NATO was created and up to 1970, Western military strategists believed that the Warsaw Pact states would “easily win” the traditional war in Europe. NATO was counting on the "free" use of its tactical nuclear weapons to slow down the Soviet offensive. But bad luck: the actions would inevitably cause a Soviet response.

However, the essence is different: the recognition that NATO will lose the usual conflict did not contradict the definition of deterrence. NATO could indeed play an important role in deterring war. First, NATO, of course, could make the price of victory for the USSR prohibitively high. Second, by expanding the war geographically, NATO could create devastating costs for Soviets in other parts of the world, not only in Europe.

The most important thing is the threat from France, Great Britain and the United States to launch an atomic war in response to the traditional “attack”: launch strategic nuclear strikes on the Soviet Union!

In such a historical context "news"That today's Russia may win a local traditional conflict with small NATO states located on its border becomes" less alarming. " In addition to the “brief window of vulnerability in the 1990's,” Russia has always had the opportunity to create a threat to NATO with conventional forces.

The model of war from “Rand” suggests that the Russians can take the Baltic and hold it “for a while.” However, Moscow will begin to pay for such an initiative "very early": NATO forces will advance to Kaliningrad, Transnistria, etc. The Russian fleet is likely to undergo a "serious attack from submarines and NATO aircraft." Further strikes will weaken the "significant part" of the Russian Air Force and Air Defense.

In short, Russia could seize the Baltic States, but only at a price "significantly higher than the cost of its retention."

This is how NATO led deterrence in 1949, this is how NATO holds back Russians today - this is the main message of Robert Farley’s article. About why the Russians seize the Baltic States and why they have not done it so far, the analyst, as well as the Rand think tank, is silent.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
Photos used:
http://www.globallookpress.com/
53 comments
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  1. Mihail177
    Mihail177 12 October 2017 07: 36 New
    18
    A large number of “blue” and Arab refugees saves you. We don’t need it for nothing.
    1. vovanpain
      vovanpain 12 October 2017 07: 41 New
      24
      Only NATO's nuclear power saves the West from the Russian invasion

      Well, only the nuclear power of Russia is holding NATO back from attacking Russia, thanks to the USSR for the nuclear shield. yes
      1. Logall
        Logall 12 October 2017 08: 07 New
        17
        Volodya, Greetings!
        Quote: vovanpain
        Thanks to the USSR for a nuclear shield.

        Thank the granfather for the victory! And further down the list ...
        1. vovanpain
          vovanpain 12 October 2017 08: 21 New
          +7
          Quote: Logall
          Volodya, Greetings!

          Sasha! Hello drinks hi
          Quote: Logall
          Thank the granfather for the victory! And further down the list ..

          I remember the little one was played by these orders, now I keep it at home like the apple of an eye. hi
      2. Berber
        Berber 12 October 2017 08: 52 New
        +4
        I agree with you. Everything is exactly the opposite. Why do we need poor Europe? There is nothing there except architecture.
    2. 210ox
      210ox 12 October 2017 07: 48 New
      +5
      Paranoia ran after me roaring and howling
      Quote: Michael177
      A large number of “blue” and Arab refugees saves you. We don’t need it for nothing.
    3. electrooleg
      electrooleg 12 October 2017 07: 57 New
      +4
      But what about the strongest non-stagnant army of Zhovto-Blaknikov in Central Europe? winked It seems like her darling saved the whole West from the Russians in general and NATO in particular laughing
      1. LSA57
        LSA57 12 October 2017 08: 04 New
        +6
        Quote: elektroleg
        But what about the strongest non-stagnant army of Zhovto-Blaknikov in Central Europe?

        and if you add to them the “armies” of formidable Balts, then we certainly do not shine. and they will parade around Moscow. Well, like the Germans July 17, 1944
        1. d ^ Amir
          d ^ Amir 12 October 2017 08: 55 New
          +4
          and if you add to them the “armies” of formidable Balts

          it will be something like ....
  2. Altona
    Altona 12 October 2017 07: 39 New
    17
    Well, as usual, they turned everything upside down. It was as if Truman had accidentally threatened us with reports of nuclear weapons tests. It was as if NATO was not developing all kinds of plans such as the Dropshot. In the end, it was Hitler at the head of the united West who attacked us, not us. The typical example of American propaganda, which gives black as white. And by the way, what is it like in this West, if the West is happy to smash everything around and even itself? Wiping dust and the European cities of Hamburg, Dresden, a little later Belgrade, now Donetsk. What “capture” is the West afraid of if occupants from Afghanistan, Morocco, Sudan, Iraq, Syria, Pakistan, Libya and Bangladesh have long been on its streets?
    1. LSA57
      LSA57 12 October 2017 08: 05 New
      +4
      Quote: Altona
      Well, as usual, they put everything upside down.

      and this is how they interpret the story and inspire the younger generation
  3. Uncle lee
    Uncle lee 12 October 2017 07: 39 New
    +5
    so NATO is holding back the Russians
    Oh Pug, she is strong to know, since she barks at an elephant!
  4. aszzz888
    aszzz888 12 October 2017 07: 42 New
    +5
    in university Kentucky.

    ... well, only if from Kentucky, then "yes" ... from Kentucky everything is visible ... laughing bully
    1. CT-55_11-9009
      CT-55_11-9009 12 October 2017 09: 35 New
      +2
      Quote: aszzz888
      everything is visible from Kentucky ... laughing bully

      Well what are you, this is sacramental: "The Great is seen from afar." It’s scary to think about what this expert could see even from the Moon ...
      1. aszzz888
        aszzz888 12 October 2017 10: 07 New
        +1
        CT-55_11-9009 Today, 09:35 AM It is terrible to think about what this expert would see even from the Moon ...

        ... that's why you can’t let them go further than Kentucky ... let him pee there ... bully
  5. polev66
    polev66 12 October 2017 07: 42 New
    +2
    maybe on the contrary, the power of the Strategic Missile Forces save Russia from the attack of NATO and European values?))))
    1. Baloo
      Baloo 12 October 2017 08: 28 New
      +3
      Quote: polev66
      maybe on the contrary, the power of the Strategic Missile Forces save Russia from the attack of NATO and European values?))))

      It is the Strategic Missile Forces that restrains NATO and the Macington macaques from starting a nuclear war. It is the Russian Federation that guarantees peace in Europe thanks to its armed forces.
  6. Eurodav
    Eurodav 12 October 2017 07: 54 New
    +1
    How old and familiar it all is!
    1. LSA57
      LSA57 12 October 2017 08: 06 New
      +4
      Quote: Evrodav
      How old and familiar it all is!

      and everything is new, it’s well forgotten old
  7. Kenxnumx
    Kenxnumx 12 October 2017 07: 56 New
    +1
    By the way, a question for the commentator. And why did Stalin need the Baltic states.
    1. LSA57
      LSA57 12 October 2017 08: 07 New
      +4
      Quote: Ken71
      And why did Stalin need the Baltic states.

      there is no such rope that the farm does not rot laughing
      1. Kenxnumx
        Kenxnumx 12 October 2017 08: 18 New
        0
        This is precisely what the Baltic states are afraid of.
    2. vovanpain
      vovanpain 12 October 2017 08: 16 New
      +3
      Quote: Ken71
      By the way, a question for the commentator

      Same question.
      Quote: Ken71
      And why did Stalin need the Baltic states.

      And why did Peter I need the Baltic? Yes, so needed that he fought for it for a quarter of a century, and then bought for 2000000 gold yefimki? laughing
      1. wasjasibirjac
        wasjasibirjac 12 October 2017 15: 48 New
        0
        then the same as Stalin. The presence of a foreign army in a couple of daily crossings from the capital ....
    3. wasjasibirjac
      wasjasibirjac 12 October 2017 15: 46 New
      0
      what would Hitler not get. German tanks 100 km. from Leningrad - like death. IMHO.
  8. XII Legion
    XII Legion 12 October 2017 08: 02 New
    17
    Only NATO's nuclear power saves the West from the Russian invasion

    Let them think what they want
    It's like a crooked mirror
    On the contrary - nuclear forces save Russia from the invasion of the West
    For the volumes of conventional weapons of NATO and the Russian Federation are not comparable
  9. olhon
    olhon 12 October 2017 08: 03 New
    0
    Yes, we do not need your Baltic, as much as you can already laughing
  10. Varyag77
    Varyag77 12 October 2017 08: 07 New
    +4
    The West is rewriting history more confidently and distorting facts. A nuclear attack on the USSR is now exposed as a policy of deterrence from communist aggression. Hmm. The trouble is that we know that this is not so, but we cannot change this process in any way. The West is intensely pumped up with hatred of Russia. In fact, the population of Europe and the United States is morally preparing for war. Unfortunately, our country is a country of one personality. I have absolutely no confidence in "post-Putin Russia." Who will replace him? what course will the country take? These are the key issues of our existence. If the United States is confident that we will not answer, then kirdyk will come to us immediately. Well, the western man will think that the Russian barbarians got what they deserved. Another fact that says that within 5-10 years the “Russian question” will be tried to solve by force is an unprecedented information pressure. Frank lies, distorting any news concerning Russia. Western hand drivers are no longer even trying to make an appearance of democracy. This was not even during the Cold War.
  11. bald
    bald 12 October 2017 08: 13 New
    +1
    Bullshit. In the states, a new form of business - the more you put nonsense against Russia, the more you get. So scoundrels earn rotten meat. It cannot go on forever, as the world is arranged. But remember their faces, be sure - you still have to answer. Definitely.
  12. Baloo
    Baloo 12 October 2017 08: 26 New
    +1
    Quote: Ken71
    By the way, a question for the commentator. And why did Stalin need the Baltic states.

    Remembering June 22nd, as a buffer between the Naglosaks and the gay men who joined them, foreseeing or knowing the plans of the "victorious" partners.
    1. Kenxnumx
      Kenxnumx 12 October 2017 09: 33 New
      0
      What Stalin remembered about June 22nd.
      1. Baloo
        Baloo 12 October 2017 09: 47 New
        +1
        Quote: Ken71
        What Stalin remembered about June 22nd.

        Ask your grandfather
  13. stas-xnumx
    stas-xnumx 12 October 2017 08: 29 New
    +1
    But isn’t it time for us to start a tantrum: the Baltic States want to capture Russia !!! Aaaaaaaaa .....
  14. afrikanez
    afrikanez 12 October 2017 08: 30 New
    0
    Why Russia needs the Baltic states? She was part of the USSR, and then they could simply not have let her go, but everyone who was dissatisfied with quiet "lime." So no, let go. And now the same question: why Russia needs the Baltic States ??? In the end, we are not perverts of something that would first "let go" and then capture. When will it finally reach the west ??? fool
  15. Pacifist
    Pacifist 12 October 2017 08: 38 New
    0
    Example of perverted logic. In general, everything is exactly the opposite. It is the United States and NATO, as a flock of their mongrel, that has developed, and is developing, plans for an attack on Russia using nuclear weapons. Our doctrine is entirely defensive, so this "professor" is a professor like the US partners. It is the presence of nuclear weapons in Russia (and in the past in the USSR) that is the factor that allowed the world to hold on, and not slide into a nuclear catastrophe. In one, he is right, the presence of nuclear weapons is a deterrent, but not of Russia, but of the West.
  16. Gormenghast
    Gormenghast 12 October 2017 08: 43 New
    0
    Something like this. laughing

  17. andrewkor
    andrewkor 12 October 2017 08: 43 New
    0
    Does Russia need “It,” in the sense of war? Have different Ekserdy thought about this for a bit?
  18. anjey
    anjey 12 October 2017 08: 50 New
    0
    According to Robert Farley, the NATO states "escaped" from Russia with only one thing: nuclear forces. The nuclear deterrence concept worked in 1949, and it works now.]
    it seems to me that if the Russian concept of world domination were real, then in 1945 the Red Army would calmly reach the Portuguese coast of the Atlantic, despite the small nuclear attacks of the United States, which would also set Europe against them and lose it - that was would be a real collapse of America, I apologize for the United States ....
    1. anjey
      anjey 12 October 2017 09: 12 New
      0
      it would easily crush the Allied forces, along with the remnants of the unfinished fascists, which the Americans accumulated in their zone of occupation without even depriving them of their weapons (they were afraid of us), which by the way is relevant in our time (Syria) ..
  19. BAI
    BAI 12 October 2017 08: 53 New
    0
    Yes, Russia still exists, only thanks to its nuclear weapons.
    1. lightning
      lightning 12 October 2017 09: 28 New
      0
      The USSR also had nuclear weapons. However, the USSR has long been gone.

      And why should NATO conquer Russia?
      Natural resources? Does it need to bother? The natives themselves will get what they need and give. With minor troubles, the truth is about currency transfers back and forth. I have to give them hold the money, it’s not long clear, immediately back. But it encourages them to work better.
  20. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 12 October 2017 09: 27 New
    0
    The Russian fleet is likely to be “seriously attacked by NATO submarines and aircraft.”

    And will the Russian armed forces watch silently? Or American logic is also crushing here - we can, while others are not, or "what for us?"
  21. Stoler
    Stoler 12 October 2017 09: 57 New
    0
    Now I understand the meaning of the expression - Edges messed up! what laughing laughing
  22. reservist
    reservist 12 October 2017 10: 18 New
    +2
    The jackal came to the lion and said:
    - Let's fight!
    The lion didn’t take it with his ear. Then the jackal threatened:
    “I'll go now and tell everyone that you were scared of me.”
    Leo, yawning, answered:
    “Let the fools better judge me for cowardice than the smart ones despise me for a fight with a jackal.”

    So with NATO. am

  23. bratchanin3
    bratchanin3 12 October 2017 10: 20 New
    0
    As always, the Anglo-Saxons put everything upside down. According to this Anglo-Saxon talker, it was the United States that was fleeing the atomic bomb dropped on the Japanese, not the USSR, and the "Unthinkable" plan was developed not by the Russians, but by the Anglo-Saxons.
  24. grandfather Mih
    grandfather Mih 12 October 2017 10: 39 New
    0
    "... this is how NATO holds back the Russians today - this is the main message of Robert Farley's article." Analyst self-gratification. Intimidate yourself to .... Victim! Help! Howling in the toilet (press) to "the whole world." Uye. Farley got excited. Different fantasies, perturbations of convolutions and poses, .... Then the calming phase: the money will be given to such a seeker “a pair of bellum” from the Russian threat. Suddenly have a Nobel (bonus)! Afro-obama laurels do not give rainbow peace? Such is the conclusion.
  25. reservist
    reservist 12 October 2017 11: 05 New
    +1
    And then what are you fighting for the destruction of nuclear weapons?
    Suspicious tantrum ... am
  26. Antokha
    Antokha 12 October 2017 14: 30 New
    +1
    Black is white, and vice versa. And after all there are not stupid people who really believe in it. You think, well, loaders in the port, they are not up to politics, but people with higher education in the era of the global Internet ...
    1. sds87
      sds87 12 October 2017 16: 55 New
      0
      Quote: Anton
      Black is white, and vice versa. And after all there are not stupid people who really believe in it. You think, well, loaders in the port, they are not up to politics, but people with higher education in the era of the global Internet ...

      Exactly. Give your intentions to the enemy and make your people believe in these "intentions". Then make a provocation on your territory under the guise of an enemy and attack him, "defending yourself."
      1. Antokha
        Antokha 12 October 2017 21: 04 New
        0
        Yeah ... And is there an antidote to this approach?
  27. Vlad5307
    Vlad5307 12 October 2017 17: 05 New
    0
    The analyst, as well as the brain trust "Rand", is silent about why the Russians should capture the Baltic states and why they still have not done so.

    Well, this supposedly think tank also exists to justify the crazy ideas of some NATO generals, but at the same time it can eat and drink well with Western taxpayer money, and the military-industrial complex to fatten. All their scarecrows have a double bottom. wassat
  28. Slovak
    Slovak 12 October 2017 17: 12 New
    0
    What to talk about if a publicist, writer, art. Lecturer at the School of Diplomacy Degenerate ?! What to expect from his students and colleagues?
  29. TOR2
    TOR2 12 October 2017 21: 44 New
    0
    Recently, the war game of the brain trust “Rand” simulated a possible Russian offensive in the Baltic states.
    Then let the "expert" tell you how the shaves who played for the Russians kicked NATO to the fullest. Even the game had to be stopped so that Atlantic solidarity would not crumble at all.
  30. APASUS
    APASUS 12 October 2017 21: 45 New
    0
    Trying to pretend to be a victim? Funny ..........
  31. finmax
    finmax 13 October 2017 13: 42 New
    0
    Another cry, HELP THE RUSSIANS ARE GOING, Said once, beware, two-think, three will laugh, not tired of shouting that we are going somewhere, and at the same time only the USA, like something liquid everywhere tries to crawl and stink request