Being at the Middle East crossroads of the geostrategic and economic interests of the leading powers of the world, the rather insignificant Syrian theater of operations continues to drag into the conflict more and more “players” of regional importance who are interested not so much in eradicating the US-sponsored pseudo-caliph represented by ISIL (IG, prohibited in Russia ), how much in obtaining its own benefit to control one or another part of the Syrian Arab Republic torn by war. At the moment, the Syrian territory is a complexly structured operational-tactical "conglomerate", where each section (the governorate or its parts) is controlled by a certain paramilitary unit belonging to the pro-Western, pro-Russian or pro-Turkish camp. Thus, the United States dictates its regional interests in the SAR at the expense of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), represented mainly by Kurdish people's self-defense detachments (YPG and YPJ), which are currently moving in the direction of the settlement of Shinan, taking control of Misla and Mikhemed (they are trying as soon as possible to reach the “oil fields” of Deir-ez-Zor). The ultimate goal of the SDF and the United States is far from suppressing all IG fortifications on the west bank of the Euphrates, but to deter the advance of the Syrian Arab Army eastward. As a result, the SDF militants, as well as the SSO and USP servicemen, use informal channels of interaction with the IG, providing the latter with medicines, food and light weapons in exchange for quick access to the necessary operational areas near the Euphrates.
As it became known recently, the military base of the MTR and USMC units in At-Tanf, covered by mobile MLRS HIMARS, and also located on the territory controlled by the Syrian Free Army, is a transfer point and a kind of training center for IG militants used by Americans to reduce the offensive speed CAA operations in the Deir ez-Zor area. A vivid example was the arrival of the IG terrorists from the controlled SSA and the Americans under the X-NUMX At-Tanf who attempted to take under fire control the strategically important Damascus - Deir-ez-Zor route, which delivered new ammunition to the offensive "kulak" of the Syrian army armored vehicles, artillery, as well as means of logistics.
Ankara is counting on its capital. The command of the Turkish Armed Forces continues to build up its military grouping in the province of Idlib (northwestern Syria), partly controlled by the Free Syrian Army (FSA). The officially announced goal of transferring Turkish armored units to Idlib is to control the new de-escalation zone, the boundaries of which were approved in the framework of agreements reached between representatives of Russia, Iran and Turkey in early October in Astana, and also to prohibit the reunification of the Kurdish enclave in the area of the Afrin city with the main group The SDF, whose western border is located in the vicinity of the city of Manbij (the enclave is separated from the main grouping of the territory controlled by the SSA, Al-Ray). Ankara’s great concern is caused by the possibility of liquidation of the SSA units in the Al-Ray district with the formation of a continuous section of the Syrian-Turkish border, controlled by the Kurds (up to the Mediterranean coast).
Despite this, Turkey may well build far-reaching plans for a future presence in Syria. Moreover, they can secretly be consistent with the ambitions of Washington. Do not forget that any cooperation with the Turkish side has its pitfalls and may well turn into unforeseen circumstances. We managed to observe a great many similar “friendly impulses” from Ankara. It is impossible to completely exclude the possibility that Turkey is reinforcing the armor “backbone” in Idlib for a lightning throw in a southerly direction, the purpose of which will be to reunite the northern bridgehead of the trust Syrian Free Army with the grouping in the At-Tanfa region, as well as scattered fortified areas near Jerud and Al- Mushrifah. What does this mean for SAR and Russia? Firstly, the division of the territory controlled by the CAA. The Eastern group of the Syrian army in this case may be in a large tactical "boiler", surrounded by the SDF (from the north and east), as well as the SSA (from the southern and western directions).
It is predicted that in this insidious action of the Turks, American forces concentrated on military installations near the border At-Tanfa can be supported, and they will advance to the north. Assessing the current operational and tactical situation in the Syrian theater of operations, it can be argued that such a military action is beneficial to both Washington and Ankara. Americans get a weakened (taken in the "boiler") eastern grouping of the Syrian Armed Forces, unable to conduct military operations for oil fields east of Deir ez-Zor, and the Turks - huge tracts of Syrian territory in the provinces of Essaouida, Damascus, Homs, Hama, Aleppo as well as Idlib. Then the division of territories can be continued between Washington and Ankara, as well as the VTS (SDF) and the SSA under their control. It is impossible to reject such an unfavorable forecast of the development of the situation, because Turkey continues to remain a member of NATO, and even brazenly “shakes the law” to provide critical production technologies for the C-400 anti-aircraft missile system; one contract was not enough for them.
In which direction the situation with the oil fields under Deir ez-Zor will continue to develop, as well as with the release of the eastern territories of the SAR by the forces of the Syrian army and the Russian Aerospace Forces, we will be able to see already at the beginning of 2018. But with confidence it can be stated that in this case Moscow has provided most of the scenarios. Thus, in the vicinity of Hama and Homs, additional batteries of anti-aircraft missile self-propelled complexes Pantsir-S1 and long-range SAM systems C-400 Triumph were deployed to cover the unseen sectors of Syrian airspace in the area of the Jebel Ansaria mountain range, where you should expect the likely American “Tomahawk” strikes on the rear forces of the CAA to support the upcoming YPG and YPJ. It is worth considering the fact that the leadership of the Kurdish self-government of the Federation of Northern Syria (Rozhava) agreed to negotiate with official Damascus with the mediation of the Russian Federation. Naturally, the Kurds will act exclusively under the dictation of US senators and field commanders, because the decisive changes that for many years to come must mark Washington’s control zones in the eastern and northern parts of Syria are at stake. Here we can face many variations of the temporary separation of ATS.
Washington and Ankara are not the only "players" who want to grab an impressive jackpot from the Syrian company. Recently, Tel Aviv has increasingly been reminded of itself. I remember well the speech of the Chief of Military Intelligence of the Israel Defense Forces Directorate (IDF) Major General Hersi Halevi at the 16 of the Herzliev Conference, 15 June 2016, where a high-ranking military official outlined all the advantages of his presence in the ISIS region in Syria. For example, regular terrorist actions of the Islamic State in relation to neighboring states help to preserve the presence of superpowers in the region, and the clash of interests of the latter automatically distracts the attention of Syria, Iran and Shiite organizations from Israel. In other words, on the bones of the neighboring nations that are totally destroyed, according to Mr. Halevi, Israel should flourish!
And such statements sound instead of building adequate and constructive relations with neighboring states. But a year and a half passed, and the Halevi plan did not translate into reality in its entirety. The replenishment by the Israeli structures and Washington of the pseudo-caliphate in the SAR was not able to reverse the natural change in the situation in favor of the Russian Aerospace Forces and the Syrian Arab Army. Destruction of a defense enterprise in Banias with a tactical precision strike aviation Hel Haavir also became only a drop in the ocean of those achievements that became possible due to the interaction of the SAA with the Russian Aerospace Forces, the Tiger Forces, Hezbollah and the IRGC units. On the horizon loomed the final victory of the Syrians over terrorism, which would again put Israel in the spotlight of the Sunni and Shiite states of the Near Asian region. Israel is fundamentally not happy. A radical solution was needed that could stretch the conflict for another years with the simultaneous involvement of a new "player", and, apparently, such a solution was found.
Without any evidence, the head of the Israeli Defense Ministry, Avigdor Lieberman, said that the Lebanese Armed Forces would come under the control of Hezbollah, according to a REGNUM information and analytical resource referring to the Associated Press. For us this news absolutely not carrying any negative information load, because Hezbollah is one of the main components of the fight against Islamic State in Syria, and representatives of the movement defended the interests of Lebanon during two bloody wars. Consequently, the subordination of the Lebanese army to the organization (if this is a fact) does not pose any threat to either the CAA or the Russian contingent in Syria. For Israel, this situation is catastrophic, because it was this organization that was able to give a fitting rebuff to the IDF armored and infantry units that are launching an offensive during the Second Lebanon War, and today, after incessant clashes with IG militants, Hezbollah fighters are even more tactically literate and motivated than 11 years ago. It is very predictable that Tel Aviv will not miss the opportunity to use the information announced by Lieberman (despite the degree of truthfulness) in its favor. From the official Israeli “bell tower”, these data announce a new round of the Israeli-Lebanese conflict, with an unofficial one - they provide military-political carte blanche for simultaneous introduction into the “Syrian redistribution”. The "loophole" and high-tech tools from the AOI for this more than enough.
Thus, as a main ally in the fight against Hezbollah and the Lebanese army subordinate to it, Tel Aviv can designate the Syrian Free Army (SSA), a decent grouping of which is currently located east of the Golan Heights. Somewhere under the Tasil or Tafas, the Israeli military can set up a training center for training SSA fighters, whose attacks against the Syrian and Hezbollah forces will be carried out under the cover of tactical fighters and UAV Khel Haavir.
The clearest evidence of close cooperation between Israel and the SSA rebels is a congratulatory letter sent to the Israeli government on Independence Day, April 23 on 2015, where Musa Ahmed Nabhan, FSA foreign relations officer, expressed hope with the Jewish state politicians in Damascus. This information was confirmed after a more thorough study of the problem by the staff of The Wall Street Journal, who were able to expose Israel’s support not only to the so-called “moderate opposition”, but also its own offspring - the Golan Knights, as well as the IG militants, who enclave to this day it lives well in the Golan in the region of Abdin and Jamlah. All these levers, driven by cunning and thoughtful brains, can do a lot of trouble for the entire eastern part of the Mediterranean.
This is quite enough to divert part of the Syrian army from the confrontation with the IG, which in the end can stretch the conflict for a considerable period of time, on which the emphasis was made on Major General Herzie Halevy. Very important is how the command of the Russian Aerospace Forces will manifest itself if the IDF begins a similar military operation of a hybrid nature, cunningly disguised by the threat allegedly emanating from the "new" Lebanese army. Here you have to apply only mirror tactics. This and the timely transfer by CAA of the required types of high-precision weapons and direct military support using resources transferred to Tartus, Hamim and other military facilities in Syria.