In recent months, watching what is happening in Europe, many are wondering: in the world as a whole and in Europe, in particular, there is complete chaos in which no one controls anything, or a complex and multi-level “chess game” is played, in which every move thought out in advance, and this is only an illusion of chaos?
But in our humble opinion, the situation is somewhat different: the world and Europe, in particular, are rolling into "tartar", and the situation is systematically and systematically getting out of control, but at the same time world leaders are still trying to "preserve" (this is not quite correct the term, or rather, "save") control under the situation. One can even say not to “save”, but to use or “turn” the created chaos to one's own advantage.
Maybe in 20 years, historians will call today's events the “Big Game for Power in the World”, the winner of which will first of all become a hegemon in Europe.
In today's Europe, along with migration, there are a number of basic “issues”: Catalan, Polish, Baltic, Balkan, Ukrainian.
Each of them is indicative, but to treat these factors, which at first glance are not related to each other, as a “system”, or at least allow them to interconnect, it can be noted that in today's world the historically customary order of the latest 20-30 years is over.
In recent days, the Catalan question has become one of the most important on the agenda. Many experts are wondering: will Catalonia leave Spain?
But let's look objectively: First, if Catalonia had forces (namely, forces from a military point of view), then it would have long ago declared independence. And this means that Catalonia needs an ally or “overlord” (again, not a modern and correct term), that is, simply put, the one who stands up for it.
Secondly, the European Union will not accept the secession of Catalonia, as this will clearly become a precedent for others. Yes, it is - Scotland, Northern Ireland, the Basques and Silesia and other peoples who want independence, will see that they have a real historical chance to get it.
Thirdly, for separation, apart from a favorable foreign policy situation, a strong, or rather independent, economy is necessary, as well as the administrative attributes —police, army, judicial and legislative system. If on the economic side of Catalonia things are not bad at all, although after secession from Spain Catalonia for the first time lose markets, then it has problems with the security forces. The organization of the referendum itself shows that from a force point of view, Barcelona cannot oppose anything to Madrid.
Fourthly, a favorable political situation is necessary. To exit from any country, the best moment is when a full mess exists in or around the country. By the way, from this point of view, Catalonia chose the best moment.
It can take a long time to sort out the problems of the EU and Spain, but the fact remains that for the EU and Spain the emergence of a new “problem” in the face of Catalonia is not the best.
And now I have a question: why no one publicly discusses the option that this referendum is not an “internal affair of Spain” and not an initiative of Barcelona (meaning “pure” from beginning to end), but a clearly planned move to big chess game "?
Immediately the following question arises: who benefits?
Russia? - No, not Russia. Weak European Union, Russia is not needed.
Indeed, this is the case: today, under Trump, the EU is trying to be more independent of the United States and their policies, and in such conditions a single strong player in Europe is much better than a dozen of the weak, who will be completely “devoured” by the United States and NATO. Now, even within the EU there are such examples, I think that everyone already understands who they are talking about. Today, the EU may well somehow resist the decisions of the “overlord” and even somehow try to refuse to execute decisions that are openly contradictory to European interests, and with a further weakening of Europe, the United States will very quickly be able to accept everything that they want would, that is, the creation of chaos in Europe strengthens the United States.
Thus, the United States of America (especially within the framework of the “theory of controlled chaos” beloved by all Russian experts), under the conditions of the swift and simultaneous loss of the roles of the “world messiah state” and “world only gendarme”, are suitable for the Player’s “big chess game.
Let's look in the "Catalan game" and the UK.
The bottom line is that when London leaves the European Union, London is much more profitable and needs weak Brussels. And here you can find "similarity" in the interests of Washington and London - to weaken the EU is beneficial to both "players."
The reference to the fact that Catalonia can become the forerunner of Scotland for Great Britain requires thinking: no one in the twentieth century learned better than England to “give” independence to the people at the same time, at the same time subordinating them to their political interests. And Scotland, also, having gained independence, can become a full-fledged conductor of British interests in the EU, a beneficial economic intermediary between the European Union and England, with all aspects of their mutual independence that are positive for Britain. Catalonia can become an “experiment”, and if it succeeds, then perhaps the world will soon hear the talk of Scotland’s independence again.
Of course, after England leaves the EU, it is necessary to have as many instruments of influence in Europe as possible in order to “lobby” (read “carry out”) your initiatives. After all, anyone understands that it will be "not in English" to leave the EU, leaving no leverage.
Therefore, I personally will not be surprised if suddenly the United States or Great Britain "finds traces" in the Catalan question, or London, suddenly thinking, will offer the world its mediation services in solving this problem.
By the way, the appearance in the world media before and after the referendum of the version of the “Russian trace” in Catalonia frankly says that there are “players” trying to “cast a shadow on the fence”.
Over the last month, one very interesting event took place in the “Baltic direction”: the European Union demanded that the whole Baltic should be integrated into the common energy system with the EU (which is an expensive event in itself), or the EU would deprive the Baltic countries of funding.
Many experts did not even notice this news, very important in the sense that it shows a tendency towards strengthening and centralization of the EU. But, and most importantly, in the issue of putting “small” European countries into even greater dependence on Brussels.
In the XXI century, in order to capture the country, you don’t have to “come” tank, and it is enough to put it in economic dependence, the first and most important step of which is energy dependence, which is especially effective in conditions of its own energy shortage.
Without an excess of energy, no country can develop, because it is impossible to open new plants, modernize old ones, even building roads without releasing additional energy is not possible. Energy failure and dependence - this is the lack of development prospects.
In fact, the EU has long been “approaching” the Baltic energy system. The first and most important step towards controlling the Baltic states was not the introduction of the euro, but the demand to close the nuclear power plant in Lithuania. What Lithuania did, thereby closing the future prospects of independent economic development to itself and all Baltic countries.
It is necessary to make a reservation that the situation is a bit more complicated: before closing the station, Brussels promised that a new Baltic nuclear power plant would be built, but the project remained a project. Today, Estonia buys energy from Finland at fairly low prices (realizing that a substantial part of the electricity purchased is “Russian” electricity), and the Baltic NPP is really built, but not in Europe, but in Belarus on the border with Lithuania, which will allow Belarusians to effectively use the experience professionally inactive specialists of the former Ignalina NPP.
But, anyway, the EU is going to finally put the Baltic states in dependence.
July 2015 of the year is still remembered, when Greece announced a referendum, and, probably, everyone also remembers how it ended. In those days, everyone believed in the strength of the young Greek Prime Minister Tsipras, who shouted hot and bright about the Greeks leaving the EU, about a new future, about abandoning the euro. What only cost him a demonstration of arrival in Moscow! Also, everyone remembers how, after the referendum, he easily and quickly accepted the conditions of the EU, more humiliating than those that were put forward by Greece before the referendum.
There are things that are not said out loud, but many think. Most likely, Tsipras was a “tool of exponential flogging,” that is, the EU and the US wanted to show each other their strength. The US wanted to show the EU that they were able to remove practically any country from the EU simply by creating a crisis there and planting “their person”, and the EU showed the US that they still have power and they can remain united and cohesive even in crisis moments.
But why the United States?
In my opinion, everything is very simple - at that time only one country in the world had such resources and such strength of special services that allowed them to “drag” their president.
Tsipras was another move (or small figure) in the chess game for the redivision of the world. The preservation of Greece in the EU strengthened the position of Germany as a hegemon, and showed all countries that the EU can and will forcibly hold "arrogant" countries.
By the way, the economic result for Greece is that all industrial and large agricultural enterprises are almost abandoned, while the Europeans (read by the Germans) left the Greeks to leave a share of service staff on holiday in the resorts. And this is despite the fact that it is much easier and more efficient to carry out the receipt of debts, because of which everything started, from an actively industrialized and agriculturally operating country, and not from a “global hotel”.
It is appropriate to draw parallels between Greece and Catalonia and see a lot in common if we consider these two referendums as attempts to “shake” stability in Europe and test the EU for “strength”. And it is very interesting: why today's experts in the Catalan referendum draw parallels with the Donbas and the Crimea, and not with Greece.
The Ukrainian question of the last many years is on the agenda. Many experts do not understand why it cannot be effectively solved, why the DPR and the LPR, having at least a moral advantage, do not occur, why the West maintains complete chaos in this country, why it is impossible to introduce peacekeepers on the Donbass, and such questions are endless.
Every day, it seems more and more that the West and Russia have agreed on the division of Ukraine. At a minimum, a number of Eastern European countries have precisely agreed among themselves on spheres of influence in Ukraine and, perhaps, even integration of some Ukrainian territories with them.
One can come to these conclusions based on simple observations: first, it is the deliberate destabilization of the situation in the country - Saakashvili alone is worth something, clearly supported by the Poles (and therefore the Americans), whose task is at least to further destabilize the situation - that is, finally discredit the current government in the country and personally Poroshenko.
Secondly, the West was actually in favor of the Education Act, which is struggling with teaching in other languages. This law is an extremely annoying factor for Hungarians, Poles and Romanians, giving them the formal right to resent and swear, knock their fists and officially put pressure on Ukraine.
Thirdly, the impotence of the Ukrainian authorities to local nationalists, and consequently, their strength, does not remain unnoticed by the neighbors.
Apparently, the EU is just waiting for the moment when the people of Ukraine and the Ukrainian topic will finally get tired of everything, and the Polish experience of dividing the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth of the XVIII and XIX centuries can be openly repeated, dividing Ukraine into several influence zones: most likely Russian, Romanian, Polish and Hungarian.
Much has already been said about Middle Eastern migrants. Therefore, we will not repeat the already known. However, we note that the situation has not changed and the flow of migrants has not decreased, but rather increased, although the end of ISIL (banned in the Russian Federation) is getting closer and closer.
The number of migrants has already exceeded a million people for 2, and the most important thing is that in many parts of Europe, where migrants live localized, they are able to destabilize the situation very quickly.
To stop such a flow of migrants, the EU simply has neither the strength nor the capacity. Rather, the opportunity is there — it is a tough force action, but it goes against the mentality, the law, or more simply, it goes beyond the understanding of a European. Other ideas are simply missing.
The problem of migration triggered the tendency towards the “separatism” of European countries in relation to the EU.
It began with the fact that Brussels began to divide the “migration burden” among all members, but the Hungarians simply closed their borders in response. If you remember, the Hungarians did not just refuse to accept migrants, but they even threatened to destroy and stop any attempts to violate the border.
Separatism led to a sharp increase in the popularity of the ultra-right in Europe, clearly traced during the Dutch, Austrian, and now German elections: Mrs. Merkel (or rather her party) scored 33%, the socialists 21%, and the extreme right 14% - and this is really scary. Apparently, the Europeans increasingly want a “hard hand” and “order,” they want to be independent and strong, and not blindly follow the course of the United States.
The rise in popularity of the ultra-right, in turn, means that control over the “heads”, “ideas”, in other words, the “war for the minds” of Europeans has been lost to the liberals.
In addition to Arabian-speaking migrants, a second uncontrolled flow of migrants from Ukraine has poured into Europe today.
And if after the “Arab Spring” no one expected the flow of migrants and did not predict, then with the Square the situation is drastically different - everyone was well aware that after the removal of visa restrictions, the flow of Ukrainians will be significant.
However, we note that Ukrainian migrants mostly “hit” on their close western neighbors and, first of all, on Poland. And when the realization of this comes, the thought immediately arises - was it planned to slightly weaken Poland?
So is it chaos or a deliberate and deliberate move?
So, the Polish question:
Today, Poland, supported by the United States, is becoming one of the strongest countries of the European Union and the strongest in the eastern part of the EU, both economically and militarily. But what is the saddest thing for the EU, Warsaw is heading for a weakening of the European Union, wishing to get as much as possible benefits from a weakening EU. These preferences may be different, ranging from money to new territories (not in the direct sense of joining them to Poland, but in the sense of their falling into the sphere of Polish influence).
In addition to the increase of the NATO contingent in Poland, we also see the strengthening of the Poles' army, and what is most interesting - we see that the Poles are not afraid to openly enter into confrontation with the EU.
We give two examples:
The first example is the fact that Poland bought the LC coal.
From an economic point of view, nothing critical happened: the Poles bought only 94 thousands of tons of coal, which is simply a ridiculous figure on a national scale. But from the point of view of politics, it is important that the EU and the USA have admitted this, that is, this fact shows the level of control over the situation - there is no control.
In addition, it is impossible to “discount” and the fact that, most likely, the information about this corner did not appear by chance, now it is necessary to “shift attention” or slightly embroil Ukraine and Poland, and perhaps even Poland and the EU.
The second example is the slightly forgotten, but still very significant, issue with judicial reform in Poland.
Let me remind you - in July of this year, Poland launched judicial reform. We will not go into details, but let's say that the reform is contrary to the EU rules, which naturally caused outrage and irritation from the official Brussels, who at some point did not simply demand to stop the reform, but also threatened the Poles with sanctions - the EU planned to deprive Poland of voting rights in the Council of Europe.
In response, the Poles said that Brussels (quote) "pay for the very idea of sanctions." And although the scandal, which lasted several weeks, ended with “nothing” - the Polish president vetoed and the law is now finalizing the law, this story is indicative of the fact that the European power, traditionally not a “great” power, dared to oppose the EU’s decision and start arguing , defending her right to pass those laws that she considers necessary.
Speaking of Europe, as a possible "chessboard", one cannot help saying that such a "player" as China is.
Over the past two years, Chinese companies have bought many ports throughout Europe: Greece, Belgium, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, France, etc. And it does not matter whether they understand or do not understand this in the EU, but China very smoothly takes all the most important infrastructure for itself.
And the one who controls the infrastructure can influence the sovereignty of the country. And the question here is not that China bought the ports for its project “New Silk Road”, but that the European Union allowed it, actually transferring the most important objects to the hands of at least an economic potential adversary.
So, the "chess game" on the "field" of Europe is visible.
But among other things, you can see that Brussels is getting weaker and weaker. Some five or six years ago it was impossible to imagine even talking about the withdrawal of any country from the EU, and a referendum on the independence of any region from one of the most important European countries could only dream about in a terrible dream.
London, Washington, Beijing and Moscow, most likely realizing that the situation in Brussels is getting out of control, are trying to finally destabilize the situation in Europe and take the situation under control.
And you can say the following: even in chaos, there is order ...