The transfer of a battery of Ukrainian transported howitzers 2А36 "Hyacinth-B" was fixed on Gorlovka ON. In case of their deployment under Svetlodarskoye, the radius of action will cover the Gorlovsko-Enakievskaya agglomeration and Debaltseve
How many naive appeals and hopes from the high-ranking officials of the foreign policy and other departments of the Russian Federation and LDNR regarding the so-called law “On the special status of Donbass” we have not heard in the last quarter! Thus, the plenipotentiary representative of Russia in the Tripartite Contact Group to resolve the situation in the Donbas Boris Gryzlov in September 2 times focused on the need to extend this "illusory" bill, which supposedly should stabilize the situation on the contact line between the territories controlled by the New Russia and the New Russia. The media attention focused on this utopian question as well as acting foreign ministers of Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics Vladislav Dayniy and Natalya Nikonorova, pointing out that there is no alternative to the law “On the special status of Donbass” in the implementation mechanism of the pseudo-world “Minsk agreements”.
And so, on October 6, the “long-awaited miracle” happened! The day after the fight and blocking the podium with the participation of people's deputies from “Samopomich” and the radical nationalist association “Freedom”, the illegitimately elected Ukrainian parliament approved the draft law “On the special status of Donbass” in the first reading, and with it the “most promoted” Law No. XXUMX “On the Reintegration of Donbass”. Recall that the clashes in the "Verkhovna Rada" between people's deputies from the above-mentioned radical nationalist parties and BPP are caused by a more radical extremist ideology of the first, which openly provides for military aggression against the Republic of Crimea.
Despite the opinion of the nationalists, the bills were successfully passed and signed by Valtsman (Poroshenko). Immediately, from Moscow, we heard optimistic eulogies of the so-called “special status” draft law extended to 1. Thus, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Peskov, noted that “the expiration of the bill, which came into force in 2014, caused everyone's concern,” and his statement allegedly became the guarantor of the implementation of the Minsk format, previously signed by the Russian side. In reality, everything is much more complicated and painful for both Moscow and the unrecognized republics of New Russia.
The first thing to note is the clause “on the need to withdraw all illegal paramilitary units from the territory of Donbass”, without which no “special status” is out of the question. As it is known, these formations are understood as the corps of the LDPR People’s Militia, which for the past 3 have been protecting the republics from the “Croatian scenario” of stripping with the total total genocide of the Russian population by the Ukrainian security forces. We are also talking about units of the regular army of Russia, which, unfortunately, are not yet available in the republics. Consequently, Kiev established obviously impracticable conditions for the implementation of the above draft law. This is not surprising, since the compilation of each of its items was carried out in accordance with Western European and American intelligence services. This point alone pushes Russia and the LDNR into a tight time frame for taking countermeasures, among which you can’t do without military tools, because the Ukrainian Armed Forces will receive military assistance in the form of lethal weapons in the foreseeable future, as well as electronic equipment to increase the level of network centrisam in battle. Let us not forget about the second reading, where the law “On the Reintegration of Donbass” will be finally adopted with some amendments providing for challenging Russian sovereignty over the Republic of Crimea.
In these bills, “Minsk format” no longer appears as a fundamental tool for the normalization of the operational-tactical situation on the line of contact; instead, they announce the transfer of all functions for the destruction of the republics from the hands of the SBU to the hands of the Joint Operational Headquarters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is subject to Poroshenko. In simpler terms, Kiev is emerging from the outdated Minsk-2 and is embarking on a new bloody phase of escalation in the Donbas TVD, in which there is no place for either the Tripartite Contact Group or the “promising” Normandy Four. The main coordinating body here can be the Pentagon, acting jointly with the United Command of the US Armed Forces in Europe. The extremely alarming subtext of the Ukrainian bills laconically shed light on what is happening Russian political scientist, journalist, and also a native of the city of Shakhtersk, Dmitry Kulikov. He said that from the documents adopted in the parliament "Square", "the smell of gunpowder emanates," and the introduction of military control based on the operational headquarters is nothing more than a way out of "Minsk". What is even more interesting, they openly admit this in the camp of the enemy, and not some agonizing nationalists, but well-known pro-government people's deputies from the Blok Petro Poroshenko.
For example, one of the recent pearls was the statement by the deputy of the Ukrainian parliament from BPP Ivan Vinnyk, made for the Ukrainian TV channel ZIK. A member of the pro-presidential party, who personally voted for a “filkin diploma”, allegedly providing for “a special order of self-government in certain regions of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions”, noted that the “independent” power structures do not plan to implement the provisions of this law under any sauce, but solely for the purpose of “powdering the brains of the European partners,” moreover, none of its items can be carried out either in the short or long term.
Such statements, as well as the operational-tactical situation in the Donbass theater, make Moscow, Donbas and Russia an unambiguous hint that a constructive and peaceful settlement is not expected, and you will have to show a bearish grin, because the geostrategic ring around the Russian Federation continues to inexorably shrink! What is worth the deployment of 1-thousandth mixed international military contingent of Polish, Romanian, German, Italian and Portuguese soldiers, who, according to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, must confront the "Russian threat" in the littoral zone of the Black Sea. Even a person who is not tactically savvy and is not a military specialist or a psychic can notice that the militarization of precisely that section of the East European theater of operations, where all the prerequisites for the new escalation of the Moldovan-Transdniestrian conflict started, started; only an amateur can fail to notice this. But back to the topic of Donbass.
Remember how much attention was paid to the last meeting of advisor to the President of Russia Vladislav Surkov and US Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volcker, which took place in Belgrade on October 7 2017 of the year in Belgrade. The negotiations, which are positioned in the format of “reconciliation of hours”, were held in a completely closed mode in an unknown point of the city and without a press approach that is usual for the media. Obviously, the negotiations were very tense, and none of the parties made concessions, because the states are practically on the war path. Vladislav Surkov later noted the positive outcome of the negotiations, pointing to the found points of contact on the draft UN resolution on Donbas, previously proposed by Russia.
At the same time, in these seemingly positive consultations, you can find a number of serious pitfalls, because the Americans have long supported the Ukrainian format of the initiative to deploy the UN peacekeeping contingent throughout the republics, including the Russian border. It was on them, according to the White House, that the functions would be assigned to prohibit military support for NM LDNR from Russia during the general offensive of the Ukrainian military formations. Russia is certainly not going to change the resolution sent to the UN Security Council under the American format, because this step will completely “kill” our geopolitical authority and destroy the lives of more than 1,5 - 2 million people of Donbass, and other “points of contact” with the States here cannot be by definition. As a result, the statements made can only be interpreted as a reasonable maneuver to divert media attention.
If the negotiations really led to a constructive result, the first indicator of this would be a repeated decrease in the number of shelling of the front-line Donetsk-Makeyevka and Gorlovsko-Enakievo agglomerations. In fact, they received the most powerful evening strike from large-caliber barreled artillery against Gorlovka, as a result of which X-YUMX-year-old father of three children, Viktor Degai, died and more than 47 houses were destroyed and damaged. It happened exactly one day after the negotiations of Surkov and Volcker. Here you have all the "points of understanding"! Instead of trying to establish a dialogue with the Kiev cattle through shtatovskih mentors, it is high time to make an offensive throw at the LDNR western border occupied by the junta. They understand this both in Moscow and in Lugansk. It is well known that at the moment, the APUs have 10-3-xfold numerical superiority over the units of NM LDNR in terms of personnel and a slight superiority in the number of armored vehicles and artillery. At the same time, according to the motivation of the fighters, as well as coherence and tactical experience, the Republicans are noticeably ahead of the APU. In the hands of the sun of Novorossia, the fact that in the south-western section of the contact line along the Dokuchaevsk-Pavlopol line, the Ukrainian military units have only one powerful line of fortified areas on the western coast of Kalmius plays.
In the event of the intensification of hostilities, and after the operation to defend the thin “Telmanovsky Isthmus” from the tank attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the DNR Army will only have to squeeze the enemy out of Volnovakha and move to the south-west IT with a Mariupol tactical boiler and exit to the Crimean border. It is extremely difficult to predict even the approximate date of the escalation of the conflict against the background of so unpredictable moments at the legislative, geopolitical and operational-tactical levels. One thing is certain: one should act immediately (after the very first attempts of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to break through the anti-tank and artillery frontiers of the republics), by the new year Kiev can receive the first tranche of military aid from the USA, Canada and Spain. The danger that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may later receive a “trial” batch of FGM-148 “Javelin” is preserved. An even more serious situation arises with the likely deployment of a joint Spanish-Ukrainian plant for the production of mobile 120-mm mortars such as "Alakran". At first glance, it may seem that these mortars will not provide any significant advantages to the Ukrainian militants, but this is absolutely not the case.
Mobile mortar "Alakran"
The brainchild of the Spanish company “Everis Aerospacial y Defensa SLU” (AED), the Ukrainian version of which is proposed to be called UKR-MMS (Mobile Mortar System), is unified with almost any heavy SUV (from Toyota Land Cruiser to Land Rover Defender) .The retractable combat module is represented by an 120-mm mortar with a range of up to 9 - 10 km (depending on the type of projectile) placed on a folding platform with an elevation and azimuthal hydraulic and electromechanical guidance drives. The combat module extends and retracts along sliding rail guides, also thanks to a hydraulic drive. The main advantage of the Alakran self-propelled mortar complex is the ability to start moving just a few seconds after the shot. Given the high-speed capabilities of the off-road platform, in combat, this may allow you to escape from the enemy’s counter-battery fire, equipped with counter-battery artillery surveillance radars.
Thus, for the confident defeat of the Alacranes to the artillerymen NM LDNR, in addition to the Aistenok and the Zoo, you will need momentary optical-electronic / radar information from UAVs or radio reconnaissance aircraft, because during the flight of the ответ response, the Ukrainian operators of Alacrana can leave from the calculated position far enough.