Meanwhile, as the director of the Center for Strategic Studies, Mikhail Bocharov, believes, the population decline is directly related to the economic decline. Over the years of reform, the number of people employed in the real manufacturing sector has decreased by more than 17 million. 80 thousands of enterprises closed.
It is clear that the family of young unemployed will first of all think not about how many children to have, but about the elementary survival.
But there is another problem: the work does not guarantee the wealth needed by the family. Millions of working Russians can not get out of poverty.
According to the Center for Social and Political Monitoring of the RANEPA, more than half (55 percent) of the population receive a salary below 25 thousand rubles, every third earns less than 15 thousand per month, and about 7 million people have only the minimum wage, making 7,5 thousand per month.
The rest are paid more, but not by much: their income level is still below the subsistence minimum. Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets called this situation unique, linking it with the poverty of a working person.
And although the figures cited by the Deputy Prime Minister are somewhat at odds with the data of the RANEPA, everything suggests that the overall situation with the standard of living of Russian families remains alarming.
According to HSE estimates, by May 2017, incomes of the active population of childbearing age were falling 31 for a month in a row. In other words, for almost three years the standard of living of Russian families has steadily declined. As a result, the Russians were depleted by 20 percent. The fall of the income of the common people is also noted by the scientists of the RANEPA.
If only it was not worse?
Worldwide, the standard of living has been learned to raise, stimulating economic growth and labor productivity. Then business flourishes, and employees honestly raise wages. We, fearing rising inflation, are engaged in the eradication of poverty on paper.
Some officials argue this way: let nothing grow, if only it were not worse. Hole in the budget we will cover additional charges. We will throw all forces on the alignment of the minimum wage and the subsistence minimum. If the minimum salary reaches the cherished 11 thousand rubles, then Rosstat will no longer have to report on the millions of poor Russians.
The point is not that due to the directive increase in the minimum wage, someone will have to curtail their activities or pay salaries in envelopes. Although this can not be ignored. It is unlikely that citizens who receive even 11 thousand rubles will no longer consider themselves beggars.
A formal increase in the minimum wage to the level of the subsistence minimum of an able-bodied person, although to some extent helps to alleviate the situation, but does not correct it. And to fix it, it will be necessary to raise not only the minimum wage, but also the size of social benefits.
Disaster areas
There is such an indicator as subjective poverty. According to the same Rosstat, in the first quarter of 21,3, the percentage of Russian households reported that they only have enough money for food, or even not enough for it.
It's one thing when thousands are offered to live on a 11 for a lonely person, and quite another when the beggarly budget is prescribed to a single mother. Even by the most stringent measures taken in the state, the subsistence minimum for a lonely person with a child is 20 457 rubles (about a third of employees receive salaries less than this level).
For a complete family with one child, you need at least 31 158 rubles in order not to die of hunger. So it turns out: the more children in the family, the greater the lack of income. Miserable child benefits, of course, are not able to solve this problem.
The average statistics for Russia, as noted by the head of the department of international capital markets at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Jacob Mirkin, only retouches sharp corners and does not show the whole picture.
With a relatively high standard of living in the capitals, the scientist counted in the country from 15 to 20 these “disaster zones”. This is a huge territory, more than many countries.
For example, in the Republic of Tyva the gross regional product per capita is 66 percent lower than the average for Russia - 2460 dollars per year per person.
According to the observations of another well-known scientist, Deputy Director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations Evgeny Gontmakher, our poor have changed consumer behavior, began to save in stores. It seems, and not such a big drop in income, as he says, but people have a feeling that it will not be better. They buy less from what they would like to buy, and choose cheaper products from those they bought earlier.
Where more give birth
Costs are reduced - and the population is declining. For the fourth consecutive year, the birth rate falls in almost all regions of Russia. If Rosstat recorded 2014 million newborns in 1,942, then less than 2015 million in 1,940, and less than last year - 1,888 million percent less than the same period last year. And this despite the fact that the number of abortions has decreased.
At the same time, the birth rate decreases (the number of people born on 1000). Today it is at the level of 11,4, while the year before it was about 12,8.
The demographic surge is observed only in the Chukotka Autonomous Region: in June 2017, almost a third of the inhabitants were born there more than a year earlier. But even such record figures can not cover the reduction (by more than 107 thousands) of the number of newborns in the rest of the country.
If in Chechnya, the birth rate falls by only a few percent, then in the absolute majority of regions, the fall is measured in double digits. And while the statistics do not even hint at the restoration of the population.
“The process of reducing the absolute number of births” is recognized by the Ministry of Labor and is associated with the “demographic hole” of 1993 – 2006. Because, they say, the current generation of potential parents did not ask. And nothing can be done about it, in the coming years we are doomed to a reduction in population.
Indeed, from 1987 to 1993, the number of births has almost halved, and now women and men of that time have entered the child-bearing age.
But it is impossible to dump all the problems in one pit, even if it is demographic! Losing a job is not easy to feed their families. And in order to raise the industry, we do not have machines. But even if we had bought them, neither turners nor millers would be enough. It is impossible to prepare a million specialists in a year or two, as well as drastically increase energy capacities, and they are at our limit. We do not produce powerful generators, on delivery of which Siemens recently “caught”.
Fees and fees
People working in the oil industry or in gas fields do not complain about life. But you cannot write down everyone in the oil industry, and not everybody in the shift workers. Where do people who want to have children work if every tenth plant in Russia, as stated in the August industry review of the Center for Market Studies of the Higher School of Economics, is on the verge of bankruptcy? Enterprises produce less, overgrow with debts, reduce workers.
The share of absolutely prosperous industrial companies with a stable financial position, which development and modernization can afford, remains, according to HSE scientists, no more than 12 – 14 percent. These are the lucky ones who have not been abandoned by the state. They receive bonuses in the form of direct budget and project financing, access to government orders, foreign economic activity, and other preferences are prepared.
But what is characteristic is that among the leaders there are practically no high-tech industries (except for chemical production and individual MIC plants). Even in the key sector of the Russian non-cattle breeding sector, say the HSE scientists, outdated technologies dominate, equipment wear exceeds 55 percent. And if we take as a whole, then a third of all the capacities of the extractive industry are completely worn out according to the existing standards.
A business that gives Russians a job still lives according to the rule: to squeeze all that is possible out of the production he has got, and there is no need to grow grass there.
Nothing but condemnation such an approach does not cause, but business people can understand. Yes, formally taxes do not rise, but business fees are rising. After the transition to the cadastral valuation of land and real estate objects, rental rates increased, a significant part of the tax benefits (primarily for property taxes) were abolished, and tax administration was tightened.
All this has led to the fact that in the fall of profits in the economy as a whole, the FTS reports on an unprecedented increase in fees to the budget. You say, what does this have to do with demographics? The most immediate. Yes, if tax charges are rising, then there will be money for poverty benefits. Today. And tomorrow?..
Forcing factory owners to save on equipment, technology, wages, the state condemns millions of people to a beggarly existence, the business goes into the shadows.
But no matter how difficult it is, and no matter how far-reaching conclusions economists today make, fashionable, sociology and statistics fix improvements in the social health of Russian society. This is indicated not only by opinion polls, but also by very concrete facts: the level of serious crimes, suicides and alcohol consumption falls in the country.
More optimism, gentlemen!
Contrary to gloomy forecasts, the deterioration of the socio-economic situation did not lead to changes for the worse. It must be admitted that all this is undoubtedly a consequence of state policy: from tightening the rules for selling alcohol to law enforcement reform.
He made his contribution and technological breakthrough: there was a completely new layer of activities and entertainment for social groups that are traditionally at risk. Young people began to spend less time on the street for illegal and dangerous activities, but more and more sit on the Internet (although there is not all right) or playing computer toys.
But it must be admitted that it was precisely Russian society, with all its seeming pessimism, that became the main source by which the country was able to overcome the national catastrophe of the nineties and begin a large-scale social transformation.
But little optimism alone. Sane economists advise to move to a mobilization-type economy, as did US President Franklin Roosevelt at one time, introduce progressive taxation, increase taxes for the rich and the super-rich, exempting those who work for pennies from income tax.
It is also necessary to minimize taxes and fees for companies in the real sector, to reduce significantly the rates for transport, electricity, gas and fuel. Completely exempt farmers from taxes, cruelly punish corrupt officials and prevent them from escaping abroad.
To this can be added the increase of the ruble exchange rate to 20 – 25 per dollar, restoring order at customs, prohibiting the use of offshore to officials, companies with state participation and owners of enterprises acquired at mortgage auctions. As well as granting the right to extract oil and gas on a competitive basis, with a fixed fee per unit produced, which will bring the treasury 13 – 16 trillion rubles.
The economy will improve, the labor market will revive, the population will increase, life expectancy will increase ...
But such logic does not seem to suit anyone. They only have one thing in mind: do not change anything. Do not let go of money into the economy, cut expenses, cut benefits and privileges. And you can explain to people about pensions: there is no money, but you hold on ...