Military Review

In anticipation of the financial crisis. When will the wallets be empty again?

44
Experts predict a new financial crisis. When will it break out? Is it not 2018 in the year? We celebrate the anniversary of the 2008 crisis of the year, citizens!




Marko Kolanovich, a well-known strategist at JPMorgan, is predicting a new global financial crisis. He even outlined his signs. These very features: liquidity shortage, high inflation, breaking the financial system. In general, the picture looks a lot like historical 2008th year

JPMorgan even came up with the name of the next financial crisis.

Opinion guru JPMorgan leads edition "Business Insider".

The company is not sure about the date of the onset of the so-called Great Liquidity Crisis, but notes that the “tension” will begin to grow as early as 2018, when the Federal Reserve begins to reduce its bloated balance sheet.

The U-turn of the US Fed from unprecedented easing of monetary policy to tightening can really lead to a market crash. It will be a very wicked irony! It is that the mitigation policy was the very incentive that helped save world markets from a disaster in 2008, the year of the last global financial crisis.

Speaking of that crisis, JPMorgan recalls that it, too, was caused by the collapse of liquidity. The current crisis can be just as overwhelming.

The date of the new crisis JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic (Marko Kolanovic) is not exactly able to determine.

According to him, the date will be “largely” determined by the rate of normalization of the balance of the US Federal Reserve, the dynamics of the business cycle and related events. Therefore, "it cannot be known exactly." At the same time, JPMorgan strategist unequivocally argues that the new shocks will be “like the global financial crisis of 2008 of the year,” which analysts made their first predictions back in the year of 2006.

JPMorgan identifies several specific market events that, as it turned out, potentially create “serious liquidity breaches”:

1. Decrease in the volume of assets, a decrease in the activity of investors, a decrease in the market’s ability to prevent a collapse and recover from large drawdowns.

2. Risks associated with private capital. The expert predicts a decrease in activity in the framework of value investment strategies, along with an increase in private capital. This will reduce the current portfolio volatility, but will increase the side liquidity risks. And, unlike state assets, the difficult liquidity situation in the private segment can be disrupted for a long time.

3. The increase in assets transferred to investment firms, in accordance with the strategies of "programmed" sales. Over the past decade, there has been an increase in passive and programmatic strategies that focus on market impulses and asset volatility. Shock shocks lead to lower prices, which triggers “programmed” sales.

4. Trends in liquidity provision. Shift of emphasis from human factor to programmed liquidity based on volatility. This trend reinforces the market momentum and reduces current volatility, but increases the risk of failure.

5. Prediction of portfolio risks. Over the past two decades, most risk models have correctly taken into account the rate on bonds to neutralize risks. However, at a crucial stage, this policy is likely to fail.

6. Inflated valuation. A long time ago, most of the assets reached the historical limits of their estimated value. This is especially noticeable in sectors that are directly comparable to the price of bonds (for example, in the credit sphere, in the field of technology and the Internet).

What is the situation right now? After all, the S & P500 index has reached a record high, and profit growth is still continuing.

Kolanovich “readily acknowledges,” the newspaper notes, that the current conditions are “beautiful.” And this growth of the markets is confirmed by optimism regarding the reform of the tax system and the rotation of the stock market at the sector level.

On the other hand, a financial strategist is concerned about the dangers lurking "in the shadow of the market" - the hidden risks described above, which have already created what lurks in the depths like an iceberg.

A new financial crisis can “wait around the corner,” writes "The Telegraph". The change of the cycle will bring the abolition of the policy of "soft" money in the United States. The decade of "mitigation" is coming to an end!

Since the beginning of the 2008 crisis, central banks have acquired financial assets worth about 15 trillion. dollars. Marko Kolanovich warns: next year the Fed starts to move in the opposite direction, and “potentially” it will lead to a crisis.

An outflow or at least the absence of a new inflow of money due to the cancellation of the previous incentives may lead to “a decrease in assets and disruptions in liquidity,” and this will cause a collapse.

Last month, US Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen announced the transition to a new policy and the sale of securities acquired as part of her quantitative easing program (QE).

Earlier, like the publication, the coming crisis was predicted by strategists at Deutsche Bank. They argued that US Fed policies could lead to the next global financial crisis.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is also forced to decide on the fate of its own mitigation program (in the amount of 60 billion euros). He will have to do this in October 2017.

There is another threat.

In addition to reducing the Fed's balance sheet, there are also plans of the US Treasury: in the IV quarter, the Treasury intends to attract $ 500 billion in the domestic market. It is becoming more and more difficult for the United States to service its growing national debt, measured in trillions. “Such a huge loan [500 billion] will lead to an outflow from all markets: to a strengthening of the dollar, an outflow from the market of precious metals, raw assets, primarily oil, from the stock market. Now American exchanges are setting records for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, etc. But such growth cannot go exponentially, and the markets must correct. And, perhaps, such a correction will be connected with these plans of the Ministry of Finance, " Reedus Vice-President of the Golden Coin House, Alexey Vyazovsky.

At the same time, any correction (global sale) is intensified by the actions of exchange robots (by the very “programmed” sales, about which Kolanovich writes. - O. Ch.). On the next “black Tuesday” programs start selling securities, which intensifies the market decline. “Therefore, the more we grow, the more we will fall,” concludes Vyazovsky.

Of course, we note that a collapse or even a small upheaval on world markets will inevitably affect the rate of the Russian ruble: the Russian economy has long been open and strongly influenced by financial crises "from the outside." From the country can flow in a fast flow of capital in the currency, the ruble exchange rate may fall. However, the Central Bank of Russia can develop a program of adequate measures in advance: the crisis has already been predicted, even the term of the first market tension has been appointed - 2018 a year.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
44 comments
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  1. Orel
    Orel 10 October 2017 08: 09
    +3
    If it happens, it will be bad for everyone. And so they have become twice as poor, if you count in dollars, since the last crisis. Many campaigns went bankrupt because of this. Loans in dollars, and revenue in rubles, the rate jumped and you went bankrupt for a couple of months. True, if foreign currency loans become smaller, it will be easier for the economy to survive the crisis, although ordinary people will still feel bad.
    1. kapitan92
      kapitan92 10 October 2017 09: 17
      +6
      The stock market is bloated like a soap bubble. Walking around the world "candy wrappers" are not provided with anything.
      That "explode" is a fact! The process will accelerate in 2018, when China opens RMB hydrocarbon trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
      1. Boa kaa
        Boa kaa 10 October 2017 12: 44
        +4
        Quote: kapitan92
        The stock market is bloated like a soap bubble.
        EVERYBODY knows this ... Nevertheless, they invest in Amer's securities ... De * Bills !? Or "meritorious" ??? Rather, the second! Hello to Plush and K *!
        Quote: kapitan92
        China on the Shanghai Stock Exchange will open trading in hydrocarbons in RMB.
        It’s interesting, but we will have time to get our 127 lards from the “most valuable” Amer papers: well, there’s a piece of gold or a tomeche with IT to buy on the occasion of the end of GREEN !? angry
      2. aybolyt678
        aybolyt678 10 October 2017 13: 12
        +2
        Quote: kapitan92
        Walking around the world "candy wrappers" are not provided with anything.

        they are provided with "oil" of the whole world, as yet.
    2. ID90
      ID90 10 October 2017 10: 16
      +2
      Quote: Orel
      although ordinary people will still be bad.

      and they do not care about ordinary people. what we have, what is abroad.
  2. Kenxnumx
    Kenxnumx 10 October 2017 08: 51
    +4
    In the Middle Ages, a periodic problem of the plague. Now is the financial crisis. We are getting smaller.
    1. aybolyt678
      aybolyt678 10 October 2017 13: 16
      +2
      Production for money - as C E C C for people, money multiplies so much! laughing The financial crisis is the lack of physical production of physical objects. Money doesn’t have a bang!
  3. Serge72
    Serge72 10 October 2017 09: 16
    18
    Robbed Russia once again
    But the base is powerful - the global crisis and battles in Asia with the next Mujahideen
  4. meGrail
    meGrail 10 October 2017 09: 19
    +4
    Another "Omerika is everything! And we are power!" ?

    The crisis in the United States - the economy fell by 3% (2009) !!
    Belarus - the dollar grew 3 times, food prices began to reach for the new dollar, prices for industrial and imported goods (almost everything except food) were so secretly denominated in dollars. Therefore, they immediately rose.
    1. meGrail
      meGrail 10 October 2017 09: 21
      +4
      And yes, I’m completely forgotten! For all local mailboxes: “There is no crisis in Belarus! We have bourges for all rotting ones, we don’t!”
      1. Kenxnumx
        Kenxnumx 10 October 2017 09: 26
        +3
        Strong Belarusian residents. With such problems, the Americans would have thrown the president out of the window a long time ago.
      2. ID90
        ID90 10 October 2017 10: 22
        +5
        Quote: meGrail
        And yes, I’m completely forgotten! For all local mailboxes: “There is no crisis in Belarus! We have bourges for all rotting ones, we don’t!”

        box - a terrible weapon. It hits the brain right away.
        not for nothing in the Crimea, when dill turned off the lights, cars with large screens stood on the squares and broadcast news.
  5. 75 hammer
    75 hammer 10 October 2017 09: 21
    +7
    In fact, all crises are very convenient for the ruling elite, both on a sovereign and a global scale! I explain: under force majeure, and this is how the crisis is explained to ordinary people (a pre-planned extra profit plan), we can write off debts, get into the budget legally, reduce social welfare, etc. The frequency of crises directly depends on the greed of the elite, the greater the need for resources to achieve control over people (the most valuable resource on the planet), the more often our pockets turn out!
    1. meGrail
      meGrail 10 October 2017 09: 33
      +2
      Gidomassony seem around?
      If your "elites" are planning so well and can crank up the global crisis, then why should they go into some kind of budget there and cut back on social programs ??? I will tell you - the elite and should be the state in your conspiracy theory! And if it is a state, then why should it plan a crisis, if everything is under control!
      1. 75 hammer
        75 hammer 10 October 2017 11: 41
        +3
        No need to talk about what I did not say! I did not talk about conspiracy theory, I just explained how crises work in the capitalist system! And leave the rest of the gag to yourself! About the elite and the state, in order to briefly understand the essence of the issue, read the definition of the term "Oligarchy" on Wikipedia or elsewhere! About the processes of social explosions, there are also many works where methods of influencing society are described in detail. including through financial fluctuations! Read it! And conspiracy theory leave Ren tv!
      2. Antianglosax
        Antianglosax 10 October 2017 11: 54
        +3
        Quote: meGrail
        If your "elites" are planning so well and can crank up the global crisis, then why should they go into some kind of budget there and cut back on social programs ???

        Why did they get that this punks are “ours”? They were their own, and they were chhing from a high tower to those whom they had lit up and robbed during the Gorbiebn era.
    2. rotmistr60
      rotmistr60 10 October 2017 11: 31
      +1
      The frequency of crises depends on the greed of the elite

      The frequency of crises directly depends on the "soap bubbles in the American bath." Once again it will burst, and the whole "bathroom" will shake.
      1. aybolyt678
        aybolyt678 10 October 2017 13: 10
        +3
        America has a self-sufficient economy. they have almost everything of their own. But the resources of the world that use dollar loans will shock. I would call the "American bath" non-self-sustaining economies.
        1. gladcu2
          gladcu2 12 October 2017 23: 40
          +1
          What is it self-sufficient, if everything is in debt?
          In the USA, I didn’t work a day, I took a debt from a bank for that day. Or even differently. The day worked and went into debt even deeper, as such earnings do not cover expenses.

          Capitalism always leads to regression.

          But what capitalism is and why it kills, here they understand units. Therefore, they carry all nonsense about the prosperity of the United States and about some elites.
          1. aybolyt678
            aybolyt678 13 October 2017 05: 21
            0
            Quote: gladcu2
            What is it self-sufficient, if everything is in debt?

            Please do not confuse Americans who for big money are just a source of income, as well as the whole world, with BIG Money!
            Debts that America owes to itself, it will resolve. The debts that the world owes to America, it will recover. Regarding self-sufficiency - America has wonderful agriculture - whose productivity is clearly excessive for one country. Then America is a leader in the production of automatic auto assembly lines. On their lines going to the Chinese Korean and Japanese auto industry. Processors - the cost of which is more than half the cost of the phone and computer is also exclusively There! You can continue for a long time. The whole world holding Treasures in its reserves provides the power of the Dollar.
            And the fact that capitalism is killing - I completely agree with you. Now there are many problems that are best solved by a socialist society. Earth Overpopulation for example.
            1. gladcu2
              gladcu2 14 October 2017 02: 36
              0
              At the expense of overpopulation, leave this tale for yourself.
              The Chinese have solved this problem by the administrative method, and not by withdrawing resources from young families.

              The fact that the Americans can work well in this is not a dispute. They can. But they cannot buy products of their production.

              Liquidity is not enough. That is money.

              And all this is due to the incorrect orientation of the economic system.
              1. aybolyt678
                aybolyt678 14 October 2017 10: 22
                +1
                Quote: gladcu2
                And all this is due to the incorrect orientation of the economic system.

                correctly! so tell me what to focus on? By the way figured out the cost, price and cost?
    3. Sling cutter
      Sling cutter 10 October 2017 11: 39
      +4
      Quote: Hammer 75
      The frequency of crises directly depends on the greed of the elite,

      Therefore, we are from the 90th out of the crisis and do not get out.
      1. aybolyt678
        aybolyt678 10 October 2017 12: 44
        +2
        crisis in Greek means COURT. I would say judicial punishment
  6. Snail N9
    Snail N9 10 October 2017 09: 37
    +7
    When will wallets empty again?


    The author, and you have them (wallets) full? Personally, my friends and I have not been filled since the notorious "crisis" of 2008 .... To the reluctance of the owners of our economy to raise salaries (low productivity, sic), our "expensive" (in the truest sense of the word) is added a government that does not allow them to fill up and constantly rummages through them while extracting money for new "taxes" (with an excuse -type, this is "at the request of the workers" and "as in the West in the" progressive "countries" -ag), “patents”, for housing and communal services, for “Plato”, for gasoline, for toll roads, for “already” actually paid medicine (+ the prices for medicines appeared up so that “mother don’t worry”), for the type “no inflation” ( yourself that is not funny?) and so on and so forth ... repeat
    1. Kenxnumx
      Kenxnumx 10 October 2017 09: 42
      +7
      And for the war in Syria for the integration of Crimea for the support of the Donbass for sports events, the Martians will pay something. You hold on.
    2. aybolyt678
      aybolyt678 10 October 2017 12: 50
      +3
      Quote: Snail N9
      To the reluctance of the owners of our economy to raise salaries (low productivity,

      There is no economy in our country. Neither as a science, because without an object its study is impossible, nor as a phenomenon. We have material values, raw materials and there are masters of this. There are international corporations that sell their goods through our (and not only), there are Oil and gas, and there are offshore companies.
      Regarding low productivity: Money can be a measure of labor - then it is good when it is strong and stable, but it can be a commodity on the exchange, in this case it is better when it is cheaper and more competitive. but everything is turned upside down: on the stock exchange they are more expensive and labor is cheaper !!! hence the performance fool
    3. gladcu2
      gladcu2 12 October 2017 23: 44
      +1
      Snail Man.

      This is why you raise salaries?

      You don’t understand that the economic system works for the impoverishment of the majority.

      Try to distinguish between capitalism and socialism. Maybe it will reach you that asking for resources from the boss is not possible.
  7. Tektor
    Tektor 10 October 2017 12: 33
    +1
    We will solve problems as they become available: it is important to keep track of landmarks. The most important thing is choosing the right guidelines. And the dollar is not one of them ...
    1. aybolyt678
      aybolyt678 10 October 2017 13: 01
      +2
      problem number one - the earth is overpopulated!
      number two - no economy
      number three - the elite (French best) are called the rich, and the term implies that it must be earned
      number four - no science
      number five - no ideology
      ..... what number will we decide? the main benchmark today is the dollar, how will we track it?
    2. aybolyt678
      aybolyt678 10 October 2017 13: 06
      +2
      Quote: Tektor
      And the dollar is not one of them ...

      absolutely right! here the ruble exchange rate should be more important. Question to what? which landmark? maybe an hour of specialist work?
      1. Tektor
        Tektor 10 October 2017 14: 36
        +1
        Naturally, the exchange rate of the ruble to the renminbi and the cost of a barrel in renminbi and rubles.
        1. Tektor
          Tektor 10 October 2017 15: 41
          +2
          And of course - the cost of gasoline in rubles on our exchange must be stable. Like the value of wheat.
          1. meGrail
            meGrail 10 October 2017 16: 39
            +2
            As soon as the cost of elite cottages on the shores of the seas is stable in rubles, then the ruble will be stable!
            But how else can the whole "elite" live?
            1. aybolyt678
              aybolyt678 10 October 2017 19: 34
              +1
              Quote: meGrail
              as only the cost of elite cottages on the shores of the seas will be stable in rubles,

              Do not confuse the concept of value and price in the economy. The value embodied in the product is labor (constant value), and the price is only an expression of value regulated by supply and demand, as well as the exchange rate and the political situation. those. changing.
              this is where the robbery of countries occurs - on the difference in the purchasing power of currencies
              1. gladcu2
                gladcu2 13 October 2017 00: 46
                +1
                Aibolit

                There is a product of production. Its price is the cost price.

                There is a product. The product is a product of production + surplus value.

                So here. By selling the goods you have received a profit equal to the surplus value.

                Such a transaction is called turnover.

                Having made such a deal, you made money out of nothing.

                The key is from nothing.

                Such an economy is called Capitalism.

                Capitalism always leads to crisis. Because money cannot be made out of nothing.
                1. aybolyt678
                  aybolyt678 13 October 2017 05: 34
                  +1
                  Quote: gladcu2
                  So here. By selling the goods you have received a profit equal to the surplus value.

                  Recall the Soviet era: everywhere there are only enterprises, in stores it is empty. Now some stores are full of goods, and the complete absence of enterprises with productive labor. When selling goods, it is necessary to CREATE the conditions for its implementation, the delivery structure ... which is an integral part of the distribution. You can look at the profit from trade as a salary, considering yourself a worker.
                  but how to calculate the cost? You would have to deal with Marx, with the first part of Capital. Especially in terms of how the cost differs from the cost. And then we speak different languages ​​.. I assure you, better than Marx, no one and nothing explains the laws of money circulation
          2. aybolyt678
            aybolyt678 10 October 2017 19: 41
            +1
            Quote: Tektor
            And of course - the cost of gasoline in rubles on our exchange must be stable. Like the value of wheat.

            Do you propose to measure in kilograms of wheat and liters of gasoline? but are not afraid to break firewood with the issue, and who will carry it out? Banks do not need it.
        2. aybolyt678
          aybolyt678 10 October 2017 19: 29
          +1
          Quote: Tektor
          Naturally, the exchange rate of the ruble to the renminbi and the cost of a barrel in renminbi and rubles.

          With all due respect, I can’t agree. What will the change of the Eagle to the Dragon give? even more Chinese goods that are unattainable for us of quality and price? Even richer "elite" oligarchs?
          I’ll ask one more question: didn’t you notice that the products produced in our country are more expensive than abroad, despite the duties, while we have absolutely all the resources ???
          Like it or not, the whole thing is in the dollar exchange rate beneficial to a foreign producer.
  8. Dedall
    Dedall 10 October 2017 18: 38
    +4
    In the days of the Soviet Union, we laughed while reading notes in the Pravda newspaper about crises. “The collapse at the London Stock Exchange?” We read. “Ha ha, how ridiculous! The growth of the US foreign debt?” They read on. “Ha ha ha ha!” Only once, as I recall, it bothered when they wrote that in Brazil crop failure. Then the prices for it were raised. True, as it turned out, in Brazil itself no one knew about this crop failure. And now you read about crises and you understand that this means another kick in our wallet. And, interestingly, no one notices these crises in countries. A strict system of stabilizing prices and living standards works there, and we will never have this.
  9. sapporo1959
    sapporo1959 12 October 2017 20: 21
    0
    The crisis is in America, and for some reason goods are becoming more expensive only with us. And how can I not understand the relationship between these events? Toli America lives at our expense, or something else ...