October 1 2017 was a referendum on independence in Catalonia. The referendum itself already belongs stories, but the processes they are running, while it is very difficult to predict. Nevertheless, it is clear to the naked eye that it is still developing along the well-known scenario of the color revolution, the first steps towards which were laid 40 years ago.
How it all began.
In 1979, Catalonia gains autonomy, and Catalan becomes the official language of the province. And at the legislative level, he was recognized as the only “historical language” with all the ensuing consequences of this decision for the Spanish language. From this moment begins the victorious march of the Catalan dialect of the great Spanish language in the province. He seized the schools and universities of Catalonia and became the “offended” whose rights the local “patriots” decided to defend.
Doesn't it remind anyone? But further matches will be even greater.
The next, interim stage of the formation of a “non-enthusiastic” Catalonia coincided with the American-European clashes around the status of the euro. The new common European currency has attacked the status of the dollar, and the old continent received several problems at once. The Balkan war became the main one, but Catalonia, on the sly, was able to snatch more powers for itself.
At the end of 2000-x - the beginning of 2010-x, the theme of independence of Catalonia was intensively heated, but everything externally remained civilized. Meanwhile, polls conducted showed almost unambiguous support for the idea of independence. Now they are already forgetting, but in 2014, the situation in Catalonia was similar to the current one, but then local elites reversed and chose to abandon the idea of “gaining” independence. And today, in much worse conditions (support for the idea of independence among the population has fallen markedly) they decided on a very risky game. Why, and most importantly, who started it?
Catalan events are not an impromptu local elite, but part of a serious game of external players. In this I have no doubt. Barcelona itself would not “pull” this process.
Let's turn to recent history and analogies.
Ukraine - Spain 2010-x
Now the events in Catalonia are developing so rapidly that the average reader loses their basic meaning, focusing on the mass of details that it was difficult to imagine a month ago:
100, 300, 400, 700, more than 1000 injured during the clashes. Police beat people and shoot them with rubber bullets. Bloodied faces and beaten in Barcelona urgent headlines News...
Meanwhile, back in mid-August, everyone was peaceful and quiet, and it seemed that everything in Spain was developing according to the Scottish scenario, where the elites agreed and turned the voting process into a farce, which almost meticulous journalists almost ripped off.
The Scots were in favor of independence, and politicians had to work hard to rig the results under their agreements. In places, they allowed blatant blunders, but since everything between the parties had already been decided, no one paid much attention to them.
So, in Spain, everything initially went according to this scenario. Nobody escalated the situation, sociologists published data showing that the Catalans are generally against independence. Behind this visible screen were negotiations between the Catalan elites and Madrid. But at the end of August thunder struck.
29 August 2017. Deputies of the JxSí (“Together for”) and CUP (“Together for National Unity”) parties submitted a bill to the Parliament of Catalonia, actually a “road map” for the withdrawal of Catalonia from Spain. Already on September 8, the provincial parliament, after a heated debate, passed this bill and set a date for the referendum on October 1 on October 2017.
A little more than three weeks have passed since then, and how everything has changed dramatically! The rest of the time before the referendum, both the Catalan and the Spanish government intensified the situation and thereby added fuel to the fire of future clashes. Everything was very similar to the escalation of the situation in 2013, around the signing by Viktor Yanukovych of an association with the EU.
Already at the beginning of last week, after personnel changes in the top of the Catalan police, it became clear that clashes between the Spanish authorities and the population of the region are inevitable. Madrid’s opposition to the referendum played the same catalytic role for the protests as the authorities ’attempts to prevent the protests and the dispersal of the“ on-childrens ”in Kiev in November 2013 of the year. And then, as we remember, 1 followed December of 2013, where tens of thousands of citizens outraged by the arbitrariness of the “bloody regime” took to the streets of the capital of Ukraine.
The Catalan equivalent of this event was October 1 2017, the day of the referendum.
What's next?
Further, by analogy with the Kiev events, we should expect ... negotiations.
Barcelona has proven in deeds that it has the support of the population and is capable of sniffing at the central government, and if it does not make concessions, the independence option of Catalonia will become very real. Barcelona made its move, now it's time for Madrid to make its own. If she continues to shove like a bull on a bullfighter, then we will see an escalation of the conflict and ... an international reaction to the actions of the “bloody regime”.
By the way, it will be possible to evaluate the interest of the parties.
In an amicable way, the central authorities now have to make concessions to Barcelona. Only this will allow to quickly extinguish the protests and restore relative calm to Spain. The sooner Madrid agrees to yield, the cheaper it will cost him. But, as it was in Kiev, not Spain and Catalonia write this script. Europe is strenuously pumped at once in many places, which means we are waiting for the continuation ...