Not urgent in the room. Kiev idea "fixed" became a reality
How many times have I written about my love for the weekend? Readers probably got the impression that I am Monogamous. No, dear, I am also a romantic! I love to dream myself and carefully watch the dreams of others. Maybe this is a peculiar kind of boorishness, I can not accurately define. You know, it’s sort of that the neighbor doesn’t snatch a bigger piece of himself ...
I often find myself thinking, especially after talking with certain people or reading regular world-wide search projects, that it’s easy to be smart nowadays. A fool is probably harder. So we live in the world of smart. Each of which for some reason tries to prove to those around it this fact. I'm smart! Look at the unrecognized genius!
This weekend I talked with the guys from Ukraine. Not on purpose. It just happened. We diligently avoided the topic of Donbass, But, you know, in such situations it is about how to sit in a swamp and not talk about leeches. Remember your conversations with a friend on the phone. Like, come to visit tomorrow. And you do not really want. I can not, a lot of cases, to work the day after tomorrow, we will get drunk again ... Do you remember the counter argument? After which you just can not refuse such hospitality? So what? .. The classic version of 100-percent persuasion.
And you know, from the whole conversation, I learned one, but what an interesting thought of my new acquaintances. Do not believe it, but we, Russia, played on the side of Poroshenko, raising the topic of peacekeepers in the Donbas! This is our essence. Rotten. Not on the side of Donbass, but on the side of Kiev? ..
The fact that women's logic always leaves a mark on the male psyche, I know. But the fact that Ukrainian thinking leaves a trace in logic is really a discovery for me. Hold on to something. It will be a blow now. According to the brain. So, Putin voiced the idea of peacekeepers in the Donbass in order to ...
It is hard to be kind when everyone around is so cunning. And literate. So wanted to develop intrigue. It does not work. So, the idea of peacekeepers was raised in order to ... return the topic of Ukraine to the front pages of American and European newspapers! Not to stop the war, namely for the newspapers. Well, magazines, I guess. The online media themselves narayut ... Do not believe?
The Washington Post: "The peacekeeping mission has the potential to separate both parties to the conflict and strengthen the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) monitoring mission." "And although peacekeepers will not end the conflict, they can make the truce steady and radically change the lives of hundreds of thousands of people living in the area of the front line for the better."
Former US Ambassador to Ukraine Stephen Peifer in an article for The National Interest: “[Vladimir Putin’s proposal should be reformulated. The UN peacekeeping forces could make a serious contribution to ending the Ukrainian-Russian conflict in Donbas - if they had the appropriate mandate.” "Such a mandate will give peacekeeping forces the authority to deploy not only on the line of demarcation, but across the occupied Donbas, including the Ukrainian-Russian border. The mandate should not be issued for an unreasonably short period. The mission should have sufficient authority to [the peacekeeping] forces able to protect and to maintain power in this region; repeating the sad example of the UN Protection Force (UNPROFOR) in Bosnia, the beginning of the 90's will not help [to settle the conflict]. "
Spanish El Pais: "... until now, Ukraine has justified a delay in the implementation of political decisions enshrined in the Minsk agreements (constitutional reform, special status of the territory, amnesty, self-government and elections) by the fact that it cannot proceed to the political part without ensuring conditions security. "
I will not comment on these quotes. In some ways, my Ukrainian interlocutors were right. The topic is really back. And "turned around" a little more than planned. Do you know how in some "alcohol-respecting" personalities the world ceases to be like everyone else? I'm not talking about politics. I'm talking about life.
Everyone knows the classic proverb, to challenge which justice for normal people does not even come to mind. "Being a guest is good, but being at home is better!" Remember? And now I remind some, for example, January 1 of any year. How should this saying sound in reality at this time? "Away is good, at home (in the morning) bad!"
So what is the theme of Ukraine? Yes, the return of old Ukrainian fun. "Let's dream about" Javelins "..." is called. To be honest, I have long thought that these guys should be given American anti-tank complexes. Tired already read about the greatness of American weapons. About the instant technical superiority of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, after the appearance of these complexes. And it is time for the Republican army fighters to master the "modern" American equipment. After all, no one doubts that these complexes will be located immediately on both sides. And for Republicans, they will be at times cheaper to "be delivered."
In the USA, another wave of struggle for Ukraine has begun! Well, not quite a fight. Rather, the wave of struggle for the supply of these same "Javelins" to Kiev. The fact that Obama diligently "spoke" and postponed, is now becoming the main topic of many meetings and forums of political scientists and the military.
I recently went for mushrooms. Mushrooms did not find much, but he walked through the forest notably. Do you know why? Because there was one "figure" who with a smart look convinced our women that he was an expert in geography. "I know the short way" ... Three hours around my own car in single file ...
So, now in the United States listen to those who "know the short way." This was what sounded from quite normal people quite recently at a panel discussion organized by the Atlantic Council in Washington. Luke Coffey, director of the Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at the Heritage Foundation, said: “We are very close to starting to arm the Ukrainians. But the administration must understand that this is not a panacea: weapon this is only part of what should help to cope with the Russian aggression. "
Well, the continuation of the speech of the American Minister of Defense Jim Mattis in Kiev is also quite recent: “A defensive weapon does not provoke anyone if you are not the aggressor. And Ukraine is clearly not the aggressor, since the fighting is taking place on its territory.”
And who is arguing? Defensive weapons, they are defensive. Counter-radar radar offensive or defensive weapon? Does the defender have an offensive or defensive weapon? Reconnaissance drone - offensive or defensive weapon? What about communication systems? Even mines? I don’t want to write about sniper rifles anymore ... Any defensive weapon! And any weapon is offensive! You can’t keep a tanker, for example, in defense in one tank, and for the offensive to provide him with another.
Have you ever noticed a strange paradox? I'm talking about how much a person changes when it becomes interested. The Americans, after what our VKS do in conjunction with the Syrian army on the battlefields of Syria, were very much afraid of their own image. Remember how 500 millions were "justified" in the US budget for 2018 a year? I will quote former Ambassador Taylor: "Be sure, we all said clearly and very clearly. No one even talks about offensive weapons, such as tanks, fighter jets and so on."
Beautiful tale, which is fed to the Ukrainians. The tale of the sword clade, which makes the knight invincible. Is it true? Is there something that Ukrainians do not need to know? Americans, those in the subject, need to know, but the Ukrainians do not. In order not to undermine the morale! Agree, a soldier, who, with the word victory, does not have any associations not of soldiers. Soviet soldiers already in 1941 rushed to the Reichstag! Everyone dreamed of “strangling a fascist reptile in a den”. And the Ukrainians? This is what Stephen Pifer, a former ambassador to Ukraine, said. Just on the subject of a soldier’s desire to win: “If we arm Ukrainians with such weapons as Javelin, which soldiers can carry, Ukrainians will not march to Moscow anyway. I have such a point of view from conversations with Ukrainians. Ukrainian military understands that even we will give them such weapons, they still will not be able to defeat the Russians and drive them out of Donbass. "
Moreover, the Americans do not speak about Ukrainians as allies. It's just another tool in the US-Russian hybrid war. It would hurt the Ukrainians. Evelyn Farkas, who previously worked as a senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of American forces in Europe: "The Russians have shown that they are very sensitive to the military losses in Ukraine. And this anti-tank weapon is capable of inflicting losses."
This is how it is. In any queue there is always the last. And the Ukrainians are again the last resort. It is to them the Americans are preparing another "meat grinder." They are preparing, despite the fact that even in Washington there are quite adequate people who openly talk about it. Here is the opinion of political analyst Rajan Menon (Rajan Menon): "Why should Russian President Vladimir Putin not do in response what he can do without much difficulty, that is, strengthen the separatists? Let's speak frankly. Vladimir Putin withstood the sanctions, withstood political isolation, placed his soldiers in the east of Ukraine and even sacrifices their lives for the sake of their aspirations. "
But the opinion of Charles Kupchan (Charles Kupchan), from 2014 to 2017, worked as a senior director for European affairs at the National Security Council: "The main problem is that Putin is much more interested in Ukraine than the United States and Europe, and therefore he is ready to go at a much higher cost. We can start an escalation cycle in which Ukraine will lose. "
I cannot now point out to the citizens of the former brotherly country these "mismatches" of their great "Mriya about" Javelins "and real life, but I am sure that adequate Ukrainians will understand me. And they will start thinking ... Think ... It is clear that orders are not discussed today in Ukraine. This is fraught with acquaintance with the Security Service of Ukraine. Orders are simply not executed. But the brain must be released from under the "Maidan Kettle".
And for more desire, I will give you some more purely military calculations that were made by American, I emphasize, American experts from the events in the Donbas. If anyone is interested, then go ahead in the American media. In particular, pay attention to the American military-analytical publication Defense One. It was there that published a series of articles on this topic. Alas, but again without resentment for the Ukrainians, the Americans are considering the events in the Donbas with the cold head of a military expert. Politicians are politicians, and war is military.
Donbass today is nothing more than a "mock war" of the two superpowers in the non-use of nuclear weapons. By the way, by some coincidence that is not clear to the majority, the articles appeared just against the background of the revival of the discussion of anti-tank systems for Ukraine. The coincidence is so coincidence. Let's not dig ...
I will not talk about all the articles. Those who are interested can independently read them in the original or in translation. But conclusions can be made. Including according to the vaunted Javelins.
American experts based on the analysis of the fighting in the Donbas came to a terrible conclusion for the Ukrainians. The vaunted American ATGM cannot do anything with Russian tanks! .. Not with those that are now in the ranks of the Republicans and once belonged to the APU. Namely, with the Russian. “Simple” “Curtain” reduces the work of the ATGM to near zero. But on the Russian tanks there are other systems of dynamic and active protection. American General McMaster speaks directly about the superiority of Russian tanks over American ones. Not those about whom they say "soon", but those who are already on the battlefields in Syria. In particular about T-90-x. The Americans began to talk seriously about equipping their tanks with counterparts "Curtains". In particular, protection from the Israeli firm "Raytheon".
So? The great Ukrainian dream of "Javelins" is turning into an addition to the list of already completed "Mriyas" of Ukrainian bulkiness "? Hummers, or rather, Humvees. Was it the same? What about the AN-TPQ-200 Firefinder counter-battery radars manufactured by Northrop Grumman and Thales Raytheon Systems, which were specifically "reduced" in range? In order not to "provoke the Russian military" on Russian soil? And the deliveries of the 36 reconnaissance drones AeroVironment Raven RQ-11B Analog, which was eventually quickly removed from the front line for unsuitability and the risks associated with it. Shall we add Javelins? Kohl went such a booze? Walk so walk. Still no debt to pay.
In conclusion, I will tell you a joke. This is about Kiev strategists and those who live in their own, different from the normal, world.
- I'm normal.
- Normal? What is a normal adult will make soldiers of scrambled eggs, and then give them the title?
- Yes, I'm just indulging.
- What are you doing? Then nothing, if I eat this one?
- Do not touch the colonel! This will undermine the morale of the soldiers! ..
In the meantime, there is a growing chance that the great Ukrainian dream of Javelins will be fulfilled. The dream is not always fulfilled. I used to think that the childhood dream of becoming an adult as soon as possible is fulfilled by everyone. It turned out to be wrong. Some still continue to indulge in soldiers from scrambled eggs. Only now the blood from this pampering is the real flow that is ...
I often find myself thinking, especially after talking with certain people or reading regular world-wide search projects, that it’s easy to be smart nowadays. A fool is probably harder. So we live in the world of smart. Each of which for some reason tries to prove to those around it this fact. I'm smart! Look at the unrecognized genius!
This weekend I talked with the guys from Ukraine. Not on purpose. It just happened. We diligently avoided the topic of Donbass, But, you know, in such situations it is about how to sit in a swamp and not talk about leeches. Remember your conversations with a friend on the phone. Like, come to visit tomorrow. And you do not really want. I can not, a lot of cases, to work the day after tomorrow, we will get drunk again ... Do you remember the counter argument? After which you just can not refuse such hospitality? So what? .. The classic version of 100-percent persuasion.
And you know, from the whole conversation, I learned one, but what an interesting thought of my new acquaintances. Do not believe it, but we, Russia, played on the side of Poroshenko, raising the topic of peacekeepers in the Donbas! This is our essence. Rotten. Not on the side of Donbass, but on the side of Kiev? ..
The fact that women's logic always leaves a mark on the male psyche, I know. But the fact that Ukrainian thinking leaves a trace in logic is really a discovery for me. Hold on to something. It will be a blow now. According to the brain. So, Putin voiced the idea of peacekeepers in the Donbass in order to ...
It is hard to be kind when everyone around is so cunning. And literate. So wanted to develop intrigue. It does not work. So, the idea of peacekeepers was raised in order to ... return the topic of Ukraine to the front pages of American and European newspapers! Not to stop the war, namely for the newspapers. Well, magazines, I guess. The online media themselves narayut ... Do not believe?
The Washington Post: "The peacekeeping mission has the potential to separate both parties to the conflict and strengthen the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) monitoring mission." "And although peacekeepers will not end the conflict, they can make the truce steady and radically change the lives of hundreds of thousands of people living in the area of the front line for the better."
Former US Ambassador to Ukraine Stephen Peifer in an article for The National Interest: “[Vladimir Putin’s proposal should be reformulated. The UN peacekeeping forces could make a serious contribution to ending the Ukrainian-Russian conflict in Donbas - if they had the appropriate mandate.” "Such a mandate will give peacekeeping forces the authority to deploy not only on the line of demarcation, but across the occupied Donbas, including the Ukrainian-Russian border. The mandate should not be issued for an unreasonably short period. The mission should have sufficient authority to [the peacekeeping] forces able to protect and to maintain power in this region; repeating the sad example of the UN Protection Force (UNPROFOR) in Bosnia, the beginning of the 90's will not help [to settle the conflict]. "
Spanish El Pais: "... until now, Ukraine has justified a delay in the implementation of political decisions enshrined in the Minsk agreements (constitutional reform, special status of the territory, amnesty, self-government and elections) by the fact that it cannot proceed to the political part without ensuring conditions security. "
I will not comment on these quotes. In some ways, my Ukrainian interlocutors were right. The topic is really back. And "turned around" a little more than planned. Do you know how in some "alcohol-respecting" personalities the world ceases to be like everyone else? I'm not talking about politics. I'm talking about life.
Everyone knows the classic proverb, to challenge which justice for normal people does not even come to mind. "Being a guest is good, but being at home is better!" Remember? And now I remind some, for example, January 1 of any year. How should this saying sound in reality at this time? "Away is good, at home (in the morning) bad!"
So what is the theme of Ukraine? Yes, the return of old Ukrainian fun. "Let's dream about" Javelins "..." is called. To be honest, I have long thought that these guys should be given American anti-tank complexes. Tired already read about the greatness of American weapons. About the instant technical superiority of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, after the appearance of these complexes. And it is time for the Republican army fighters to master the "modern" American equipment. After all, no one doubts that these complexes will be located immediately on both sides. And for Republicans, they will be at times cheaper to "be delivered."
In the USA, another wave of struggle for Ukraine has begun! Well, not quite a fight. Rather, the wave of struggle for the supply of these same "Javelins" to Kiev. The fact that Obama diligently "spoke" and postponed, is now becoming the main topic of many meetings and forums of political scientists and the military.
I recently went for mushrooms. Mushrooms did not find much, but he walked through the forest notably. Do you know why? Because there was one "figure" who with a smart look convinced our women that he was an expert in geography. "I know the short way" ... Three hours around my own car in single file ...
So, now in the United States listen to those who "know the short way." This was what sounded from quite normal people quite recently at a panel discussion organized by the Atlantic Council in Washington. Luke Coffey, director of the Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at the Heritage Foundation, said: “We are very close to starting to arm the Ukrainians. But the administration must understand that this is not a panacea: weapon this is only part of what should help to cope with the Russian aggression. "
Well, the continuation of the speech of the American Minister of Defense Jim Mattis in Kiev is also quite recent: “A defensive weapon does not provoke anyone if you are not the aggressor. And Ukraine is clearly not the aggressor, since the fighting is taking place on its territory.”
And who is arguing? Defensive weapons, they are defensive. Counter-radar radar offensive or defensive weapon? Does the defender have an offensive or defensive weapon? Reconnaissance drone - offensive or defensive weapon? What about communication systems? Even mines? I don’t want to write about sniper rifles anymore ... Any defensive weapon! And any weapon is offensive! You can’t keep a tanker, for example, in defense in one tank, and for the offensive to provide him with another.
Have you ever noticed a strange paradox? I'm talking about how much a person changes when it becomes interested. The Americans, after what our VKS do in conjunction with the Syrian army on the battlefields of Syria, were very much afraid of their own image. Remember how 500 millions were "justified" in the US budget for 2018 a year? I will quote former Ambassador Taylor: "Be sure, we all said clearly and very clearly. No one even talks about offensive weapons, such as tanks, fighter jets and so on."
Beautiful tale, which is fed to the Ukrainians. The tale of the sword clade, which makes the knight invincible. Is it true? Is there something that Ukrainians do not need to know? Americans, those in the subject, need to know, but the Ukrainians do not. In order not to undermine the morale! Agree, a soldier, who, with the word victory, does not have any associations not of soldiers. Soviet soldiers already in 1941 rushed to the Reichstag! Everyone dreamed of “strangling a fascist reptile in a den”. And the Ukrainians? This is what Stephen Pifer, a former ambassador to Ukraine, said. Just on the subject of a soldier’s desire to win: “If we arm Ukrainians with such weapons as Javelin, which soldiers can carry, Ukrainians will not march to Moscow anyway. I have such a point of view from conversations with Ukrainians. Ukrainian military understands that even we will give them such weapons, they still will not be able to defeat the Russians and drive them out of Donbass. "
Moreover, the Americans do not speak about Ukrainians as allies. It's just another tool in the US-Russian hybrid war. It would hurt the Ukrainians. Evelyn Farkas, who previously worked as a senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of American forces in Europe: "The Russians have shown that they are very sensitive to the military losses in Ukraine. And this anti-tank weapon is capable of inflicting losses."
This is how it is. In any queue there is always the last. And the Ukrainians are again the last resort. It is to them the Americans are preparing another "meat grinder." They are preparing, despite the fact that even in Washington there are quite adequate people who openly talk about it. Here is the opinion of political analyst Rajan Menon (Rajan Menon): "Why should Russian President Vladimir Putin not do in response what he can do without much difficulty, that is, strengthen the separatists? Let's speak frankly. Vladimir Putin withstood the sanctions, withstood political isolation, placed his soldiers in the east of Ukraine and even sacrifices their lives for the sake of their aspirations. "
But the opinion of Charles Kupchan (Charles Kupchan), from 2014 to 2017, worked as a senior director for European affairs at the National Security Council: "The main problem is that Putin is much more interested in Ukraine than the United States and Europe, and therefore he is ready to go at a much higher cost. We can start an escalation cycle in which Ukraine will lose. "
I cannot now point out to the citizens of the former brotherly country these "mismatches" of their great "Mriya about" Javelins "and real life, but I am sure that adequate Ukrainians will understand me. And they will start thinking ... Think ... It is clear that orders are not discussed today in Ukraine. This is fraught with acquaintance with the Security Service of Ukraine. Orders are simply not executed. But the brain must be released from under the "Maidan Kettle".
And for more desire, I will give you some more purely military calculations that were made by American, I emphasize, American experts from the events in the Donbas. If anyone is interested, then go ahead in the American media. In particular, pay attention to the American military-analytical publication Defense One. It was there that published a series of articles on this topic. Alas, but again without resentment for the Ukrainians, the Americans are considering the events in the Donbas with the cold head of a military expert. Politicians are politicians, and war is military.
Donbass today is nothing more than a "mock war" of the two superpowers in the non-use of nuclear weapons. By the way, by some coincidence that is not clear to the majority, the articles appeared just against the background of the revival of the discussion of anti-tank systems for Ukraine. The coincidence is so coincidence. Let's not dig ...
I will not talk about all the articles. Those who are interested can independently read them in the original or in translation. But conclusions can be made. Including according to the vaunted Javelins.
American experts based on the analysis of the fighting in the Donbas came to a terrible conclusion for the Ukrainians. The vaunted American ATGM cannot do anything with Russian tanks! .. Not with those that are now in the ranks of the Republicans and once belonged to the APU. Namely, with the Russian. “Simple” “Curtain” reduces the work of the ATGM to near zero. But on the Russian tanks there are other systems of dynamic and active protection. American General McMaster speaks directly about the superiority of Russian tanks over American ones. Not those about whom they say "soon", but those who are already on the battlefields in Syria. In particular about T-90-x. The Americans began to talk seriously about equipping their tanks with counterparts "Curtains". In particular, protection from the Israeli firm "Raytheon".
So? The great Ukrainian dream of "Javelins" is turning into an addition to the list of already completed "Mriyas" of Ukrainian bulkiness "? Hummers, or rather, Humvees. Was it the same? What about the AN-TPQ-200 Firefinder counter-battery radars manufactured by Northrop Grumman and Thales Raytheon Systems, which were specifically "reduced" in range? In order not to "provoke the Russian military" on Russian soil? And the deliveries of the 36 reconnaissance drones AeroVironment Raven RQ-11B Analog, which was eventually quickly removed from the front line for unsuitability and the risks associated with it. Shall we add Javelins? Kohl went such a booze? Walk so walk. Still no debt to pay.
In conclusion, I will tell you a joke. This is about Kiev strategists and those who live in their own, different from the normal, world.
- I'm normal.
- Normal? What is a normal adult will make soldiers of scrambled eggs, and then give them the title?
- Yes, I'm just indulging.
- What are you doing? Then nothing, if I eat this one?
- Do not touch the colonel! This will undermine the morale of the soldiers! ..
In the meantime, there is a growing chance that the great Ukrainian dream of Javelins will be fulfilled. The dream is not always fulfilled. I used to think that the childhood dream of becoming an adult as soon as possible is fulfilled by everyone. It turned out to be wrong. Some still continue to indulge in soldiers from scrambled eggs. Only now the blood from this pampering is the real flow that is ...
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