The perseverance of the Ukrainian president in trying to get Washington money and at least some lethal weapon worthy of a better use. Perhaps for him, the process of begging has already entered such an ingrained habit that it has become vital to him. As you know, the States agreed to the supply of so-called defensive non-lethal weapons, and there is also approval by the US Congress in providing financial assistance to Kiev, this time in a highly reduced form. The long trip of Poroshenko to the ocean this time did not bring the expected results. Let's look into the dilemma: what the fifth president Square wanted and what he achieved. And also we will finally clarify for ourselves what lethal and non-lethal weapons mean in the language of the Americans, what the financial American aid provided to Kiev is. In addition, President Poroshenko recently very often declares the return of the Crimea and Donbass under the jurisdiction of Ukraine, without explaining how he intends to do this. We estimate the chances of Kiev to realize his words.
MILITARISM IN UKRAINIAN
The President of Ukraine has already bored everyone with his statements, saying that the Ukrainian army is the most powerful in Europe. These his tales have long been amusing no one. Perhaps, in order to return interest to them, Petro Poroshenko signed decree No. 278 / 2017 of September 17, according to which it is planned to spend more than 2018 billion hryvnia for 165 a year, it is approximately $ 6,3 billion. At the same time, the National Security Council (NSS) Square instructed the cabinet to set at least 2018% of gross domestic product in the draft law on the state budget for 5 for national security and defense. Earlier, 13 September 2017, another document was signed “On the proposals to the draft law of Ukraine“ On the State Budget of Ukraine for 2018 Year ”on the articles related to ensuring national security and defense of Ukraine”. In addition, a presidential decree No. 92 of 14 in March 2016 was signed a year and a half ago, which deals with the financing of the state target program for the creation and development of the production of ammunition and special chemistry products for the period up to 2021 and the state target program for reforming and developing industrial complex for the period up to 2021 in the amount of 0,5% of gross domestic product (but not less than 6 billion UAH), in excess of the amount of expenditures on financing the security and defense sector, defined by the Concept p zvitiya defense and security sector of Ukraine.
To implement this decree provides funding for 2018 year. As for the budget allocated for state security and the military department, it seems that Kiev is preparing for a serious war. For the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (Armed Forces of Ukraine) and other security agencies, Kiev intends to allocate 165 billion 372,3 million UAH, 158 billion 997,3 million UAH will deduct the general budget of the state budget and a special fund will empty 6 billion 375 million UAH. The total cost of security for 6,3 billions of US dollars per year will allow Square to get around Egypt and Thailand, but it does not even get into the top 30.
The military department in 2018, possibly, will receive from the main fund 81 billion 689,2 million UAH, and from a special fund 1 billion 625,3 million UAH. The National Guard of Ukraine (NSU) for the same fiscal year owed 1 billion 354 million UAH from the general fund of the state budget and 739,0 million UAH, respectively, from a special fund. To finance the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), 7 billion 491,1 million UAH should be planned at the expense of the general fund and 160,9 million UAH - at the expense of the special fund.
The police can count on 24 billion 277,2 million UAH at the expense of the general fund of the state budget, the special fund will send her 90 million UAH. The main fund of the state budget will transfer 9 billion 10,6 million UAH to the Border Guard Service, and a special fund - 33,2 million UAH. In 2018, from the general fund 9 billion, 774,6 million UAH, plus 969,4 million UAH - from the special fund, will be spent on the maintenance of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine (SSES).
In 2018, priority financing of the security and defense of Ukraine is provided for in the following priority areas: strengthening the state’s air defense system and capabilities aviation Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine; implementation of state policy in the field of cybersecurity, the implementation of measures to develop and modernize special communications and information protection; implementation of the National Intelligence Program for 2016–2020; strengthening counterintelligence protection and the fight against terrorism and sabotage; conducting intensive combat training of units and subunits of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other legitimate military units; arrangement of the state border of Ukraine; implementation of social guarantees for military personnel, first of all, an increase in the structure of monetary support for military personnel in the share of official salaries and salaries for military ranks. True, there is one catch in this leapfrog of documents. The fact is that financial revenues to the above funds, which will then be spent on the needs of the state security and defense of the country, should be provided by the Ukrainian government starting in 2018. And what will happen if it does not cope with this task?
SOURCES OF FINANCING
The question is where to get the money if the country's budget for all items literally bursts at the seams. So the head of state has to “wipe the harem pants on his knees”, begging alms across the ocean. So far, the US Congress has approved the allocation of $ 2018 million to Ukraine for fiscal year 150, but only half of this amount is actually planned to be spent on Independent. Moreover, the decision is not final, because it did not pass all instances of approval provided for by US laws. The indicated amount is much less than that which was given for the needs of Kiev last year. It seems that the decree of Petro Poroshenko No. 278/2017 of September 17, 2017 is not destined to be executed. The APU will have to be content with what is. And the Ukrainian military does not have so many funds at its disposal. In 1992, Nezalezhnaya really had a very significant arsenal, it got the weapons and the entire infrastructure of the Kiev and Carpathian military districts, most of the material resources of the Odessa district and a solid jackpot from the Black Sea shared with Russia fleet. Today, most of all this wealth has been sold abroad (income has settled in the pockets of private individuals), and much of what remains is spent (including by theft) during a punitive operation against the rebellious Donbass. The once-powerful Ukrainian defense industry is now not just lying on its side, but hopelessly dying. Kiev receives the remnants of Soviet weapons and ammunition from the countries of Eastern Europe, former members of the Warsaw Pact, but again, this junk does not get Nezalezhnaya free.
And to fight Petro Poroshenko is vital, since his rule is based on the idea of "returning" the Donbass, and of the Crimea at the same time. The US’s refusal to supply the so-called lethal weapon the ruler of Ukraine sweetens with the alleged readiness of Canada to take on this tug, but, of course, not for free. The Kyiv ruler, moreover, is confident in the high technical qualities of weapons produced in Ukraine, which, however, is not confirmed by the practice of using them.
US WEAPON FOR KIEV
The Ukrainian president has repeatedly stated the possibility of Kiev receiving military assistance from the United States in the form of supplies of various weapons, both lethal and non-lethal. To deal with these terms finally, it is necessary to return to the events of two months ago, when the possibility of such supplies was discussed with might and main, though it was only defensive armament. Petro Poroshenko, waiting for the visit of US Secretary of Defense James Mattis, said: “The process of providing defense weapons is very active ... moreover, during a meeting with the Minister of Defense, which was confirmed during the meeting in the White House, the position on defense supplies weapons will try to decide more within the current fiscal year. " The head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry prefers not to divide weapons into lethal and non-lethal ones, but to talk only about defensive weapons in the complex. Frankly, I can not imagine how you can draw a line between defensive and offensive weapons. A weapon is a weapon; any sample of it (well, except perhaps mine-explosive obstacles) can be used both in defense and in offensive.
For some reason, this time, Djevelin anti-tank missiles were considered by Americans as a lethal defensive weapon. And the term “non-lethal weapons” meant uniforms, equipment, body armor, training small arms and equipment for shooting ranges, communications equipment and radars for various purposes and other material means, that is, something that does not kill in principle. But how can uniforms be counted as weapons?
But that's not the point. America, for example, denies the delivery of lethal weapons in Nezalezhnaya. But what about the information spread by Ukrainian journalists who clearly do not sympathize with LDNR: “After the delivery of a batch of sniper rifles of 12,7 caliber mm Barrett М82 and М107 to the Armed Forces and the National Guard of Ukraine, the United States made a new delivery - PSRL-1 hand grenade launchers. In April, the National Guard under 2017 bought such grenade launchers from the American company AirTronic USA. ” In the hands of the fighters of the Terbat and the National Guard under the video footage of the war in the Donbass, you can sometimes see American M100 assault rifles and other weapons.
In 2014, light anti-mine radar systems were sent to APU from overseas, but in pieces. In the 2015 year after Great Britain (the useless Saxon armored cars were sold to Kiev), the United States provided Ukraine with unarmed old armored Hummy SUVs, as well as some outfits. Obviously, Washington even then hesitated in its decision to arm or not to arm Nezalezhnaya Square, and to that there were and still are weighty reasons. The issue of supplying Kiev with armaments has been considered several times; it received progress at the end of the presidency of Barack Obama, in September of 2016. Then the House of Representatives of the US Congress unanimously voted for the law, which referred to the supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine, but this document did not have time to pass all instances of approval provided by US law. With the advent of Donald Trump, this law was forgotten.
REINTEGRATION OF DONBASS AND CRIMEA
For a long time, the Kiev authorities have been talking about the return of the Donbass under its jurisdiction, the tone changes from time to time, then it relies on a political settlement, then on purely coercive actions. President Poroshenko, the cabinet of ministers are primarily security officials, and the parliamentary majority do not want to acknowledge the fact that Nezalezhnaya’s military route is not able to overcome the rebellious self-proclaimed republics of the DPR and LPR. That only Kiev did not try. On the battlefield, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard and Volunteer Battalions showed their complete helplessness. The conduct of the war by special operations of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and the SBU is also not very successful. Even attracting foreign soldiers to participate in the hostilities does not give the desired result.
Currently, Kiev is trying to attract foreign military forces under the auspices of the UN (blue helmets) allegedly to conduct a peacekeeping operation, in fact, in this act, the intention to liquidate the self-proclaimed republics is seen. Moscow is not against peacekeepers, but insists on stationing international forces only on the line of confrontation. Kiev put forward its plan (and Washington supported it), according to which peacekeepers should be located throughout the rebellious Donbass, and mainly they should block the border with the Russian Federation. Calculation team Petro Poroshenko is simple, it is based on provocations against blue helmets, if any, will be introduced in the Donbass. Thus, the world community will be drawn into a military conflict against the LDNR, and Moscow will find itself in a difficult situation. It is no secret that Kiev is trying to provoke Russia into military actions of any level, in the hope that the West will provide him with all-round support, including military support.
Therefore, Ukraine is considering the return of the Crimea in conjunction with the Donbas. If international forces are already drawn into the war, why not offer all the same international forces to simultaneously seize the peninsula and return it under the authority of Kiev. In addition, the aspirations of the Ukrainian rulers and Washington towards the peninsula are the same. The United States continues to see it as a convenient place to deploy its military base. America skillfully uses international organizations to achieve its goals. The world community, despite the weighty arguments of Moscow, stubbornly refuses to recognize the Crimea and Sevastopol as Russian. In a recent report, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights calls the peninsula “occupied territory”, keeps statistics (which it receives from Ukrainian sources, mainly from the blogosphere) about alleged human rights violations and recommends Moscow to apply Ukrainian legislation in Crimea and Sevastopol.
So the introduction of peacekeepers into the territory of Donbass, now uncontrolled by Kiev, may well get a very dramatic continuation in the form of a very big war in which Russia will confront another international coalition. Therefore, Moscow needs to be extremely cautious about the very idea of the presence of blue helmets in the south-east of Ukraine; this is a matter of principle for ensuring the security and even the integrity of Russia.
Kiev seeks with the help of the UN mission to return the Crimea and Donbass
- Alexander Sharkovsky