"Jamaica" without Usain Bolt
In recent years, the world has associated the Caribbean state of Jamaica with the name of the talented athlete Usain Bolt. The eight-time Olympic champion in sprint has now announced the end of his sports career. Now the island country is mentioned mainly in connection with the possible configuration of the German government coalition, emerging from the results of the parliamentary elections held on Sunday.
The difficult path to the new German government
The black-yellow-green flag of Jamaica became a symbol of the future ruling coalition of Germany. It is expected to include German Conservatives (CDU / CSU), Free Democrats (FDP) and representatives of the 90 / Green Union, who received 33, 10,7 and 8,9 percent of the votes, respectively, at the head of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Political arithmetic brings these three parties into the ruling coalition. Their party colors in general correspond to the range of the state flag of Jamaica, which gave a sharp reason for analysts to introduce a new exotic term into German vocabulary - political “Jamaica”.
As you know, in their best years, the German Conservatives of the CDU / CSU formed the German government in collaboration with free democrats, supported by large banking and industrial capital. At the same time, the junior coalition partner (FDP) traditionally got the key post of Minister of Foreign Affairs.
The 90 / Green party was also noted in the German government. In 1998-2005 she was a junior partner of the Social Democrats in the coalition cabinet of ministers Chancellor Gerhard Schröder. The Greens then also controlled the German foreign affairs agency. They are now being tipped off in the new coalition by the post of deputy prime minister and minister of foreign affairs.
However, the road to it will be long and difficult. First of all, because there is no unity about Germany’s current political agenda even in the CDU / CSU bloc that has won the elections. Bavarian Christian conservatives started talking about creating their own party faction in the Bundestag. An apple of contention among long-standing political partners has become an attitude towards migrants.
This topic was central to the last election. The head of the CSU, the Bavarian Prime Minister Horst Seehofer, insisted on restricting the reception of refugees and offered to let no more than 200 thousands of people per year enter Germany. Angela Merkel actively objected to him, referring to the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Germany, which guarantees the individual right to asylum in the country.
The Greens and Liberals, as well as the CDU, are also against the introduction of quotas for refugees. However, free democrats have their own views on migration. In the pre-election debates, candidates from the FDP supported the recognition of the African Maghreb countries as safe for living. This position opens the way for the simplified expulsion from Germany of North Africans who have not received refugee status, and brings the liberals closer to the Bavarian conservatives.
At the same time, the CSU strongly opposes other initiatives of future coalition partners. In particular, the Bavarians do not agree to recognize Germany as an immigration country, which allows them to give a residence permit and the right to work to "necessary" foreigners - people who meet certain criteria and are in demand in the economy, culture or business.
However, the most acute contradiction between the members of the future coalition was the issue of introducing dual citizenship in Germany. Ethnic Turks who have a strong position in the Green Party have long been fighting for this. Now they were joined by liberals. Christian Democrats hesitate and are willing to seek a compromise. Bavarians are absolutely not ready for it.
In a word, only in matters of immigration law and the rules for granting German citizenship to partners the hottest disputes await. Meanwhile, there are still different views on the future of European integration, internal security, the development of environmental transport and energy, etc. “Greens”, as Deutsche Welle writes, for example, promised “to their voters not to sign a coalition agreement, if the goal of ending the era of internal combustion engines is not written in it”.
Frau Merkel is no longer up to Ukraine and the gas pipeline
It will take time to smooth out all these contradictions. Immediately after the elections, in an interview with journalists, Angela Merkel expressed the hope that Germany would receive a new government before Christmas, that is, about three months later. Skeptics do not share the optimism of the Bundeskanzlerin. And that's why.
The last time, in 2013, after a similar September election, a large coalition of conservatives and Social Democrats officially took shape only by mid-December. Then there were no current contradictions in the conservative bloc, and only two parties agreed on future activities - the CDU / CSU and the SPD. Today, taking into account the special position of the CSU, there are four of them.
The procedure of forming the ruling alliance is quite long. First, the parties will negotiate and agree on the composition of the proposed coalition. Then, at their congresses, they will formalize the ruling coalition and give start to negotiations on the conclusion of a coalition agreement - the action program of the future cabinet.
Only after that will work begin on the coordination of program positions. This year, she has her differences. Liberals and “greens” have already expressed their support for submitting a coalition agreement for the approval of members of their parties. The fact is that such a format of the ruling coalition in Germany appears for the first time. According to the leaders of these parties, he demands a certain legitimization in German society.
The proposed procedure will take a lot of time and will require significant funds. After all, a written survey of all registered party members is planned. In 90 / Greens Union, more than 60 thousand people need to be interviewed, and about half a million for free democrats. Only after such approval of the coalition agreement will the Bundestag swear in a new government.
All this time, Merkel's office, and the Chancellor herself will be in a rather limbo. They say that the coalition may not overcome the existing contradictions. Then you have to go to the new elections. A premonition of this brings some nervousness to European politicians. Since the German Chancellor - the actual leader of a united Europe - in their actions will be linked to internal problems. Without it, the European Union will become something like a school class without a teacher.
To some extent this has already manifested itself in recent months. The busy electoral agenda of Germany was challenged by the Poles, Germans, Hungarians, Balts. Came out from under the German tutelage of the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko. By the way, he congratulated Angela Merkel on his victory in the parliamentary elections and noted that Merkel’s success “is bringing the restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine closer”.
Given the fact that Poroshenko frankly headed for the forceful return of Donbass to Ukraine, the statement turned out to be quite ambiguous. But Merkel was silent. She even slowed down her activity in the Norman format, as if giving a blank check to the Ukrainian president on his questionable search initiatives. weapons to continue the war with the unrecognized republics. Frau Merkel is no longer up to Ukraine. In Kiev, it felt like nowhere, and even stopped talking about the Minsk agreements.
They sank not only political projects with the participation of Germany, but also economic ones. It has affected Russia. On Tuesday, Vladimir Putin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, said that the future of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline would become clear only after the formation of a new German government.
The examples cited clearly show the real influence of the German government and its leader on stability and predictability in Europe. In light of this, the current games in the political “Jamaica” are no longer an intra-German affair, but a problem for the whole of Europe. The sooner this problem is resolved safely for Germany, the less will there be from its long-term consequences on the continent.
The difficult path to the new German government
The black-yellow-green flag of Jamaica became a symbol of the future ruling coalition of Germany. It is expected to include German Conservatives (CDU / CSU), Free Democrats (FDP) and representatives of the 90 / Green Union, who received 33, 10,7 and 8,9 percent of the votes, respectively, at the head of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Political arithmetic brings these three parties into the ruling coalition. Their party colors in general correspond to the range of the state flag of Jamaica, which gave a sharp reason for analysts to introduce a new exotic term into German vocabulary - political “Jamaica”.
As you know, in their best years, the German Conservatives of the CDU / CSU formed the German government in collaboration with free democrats, supported by large banking and industrial capital. At the same time, the junior coalition partner (FDP) traditionally got the key post of Minister of Foreign Affairs.
The 90 / Green party was also noted in the German government. In 1998-2005 she was a junior partner of the Social Democrats in the coalition cabinet of ministers Chancellor Gerhard Schröder. The Greens then also controlled the German foreign affairs agency. They are now being tipped off in the new coalition by the post of deputy prime minister and minister of foreign affairs.
However, the road to it will be long and difficult. First of all, because there is no unity about Germany’s current political agenda even in the CDU / CSU bloc that has won the elections. Bavarian Christian conservatives started talking about creating their own party faction in the Bundestag. An apple of contention among long-standing political partners has become an attitude towards migrants.
This topic was central to the last election. The head of the CSU, the Bavarian Prime Minister Horst Seehofer, insisted on restricting the reception of refugees and offered to let no more than 200 thousands of people per year enter Germany. Angela Merkel actively objected to him, referring to the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Germany, which guarantees the individual right to asylum in the country.
The Greens and Liberals, as well as the CDU, are also against the introduction of quotas for refugees. However, free democrats have their own views on migration. In the pre-election debates, candidates from the FDP supported the recognition of the African Maghreb countries as safe for living. This position opens the way for the simplified expulsion from Germany of North Africans who have not received refugee status, and brings the liberals closer to the Bavarian conservatives.
At the same time, the CSU strongly opposes other initiatives of future coalition partners. In particular, the Bavarians do not agree to recognize Germany as an immigration country, which allows them to give a residence permit and the right to work to "necessary" foreigners - people who meet certain criteria and are in demand in the economy, culture or business.
However, the most acute contradiction between the members of the future coalition was the issue of introducing dual citizenship in Germany. Ethnic Turks who have a strong position in the Green Party have long been fighting for this. Now they were joined by liberals. Christian Democrats hesitate and are willing to seek a compromise. Bavarians are absolutely not ready for it.
In a word, only in matters of immigration law and the rules for granting German citizenship to partners the hottest disputes await. Meanwhile, there are still different views on the future of European integration, internal security, the development of environmental transport and energy, etc. “Greens”, as Deutsche Welle writes, for example, promised “to their voters not to sign a coalition agreement, if the goal of ending the era of internal combustion engines is not written in it”.
Frau Merkel is no longer up to Ukraine and the gas pipeline
It will take time to smooth out all these contradictions. Immediately after the elections, in an interview with journalists, Angela Merkel expressed the hope that Germany would receive a new government before Christmas, that is, about three months later. Skeptics do not share the optimism of the Bundeskanzlerin. And that's why.
The last time, in 2013, after a similar September election, a large coalition of conservatives and Social Democrats officially took shape only by mid-December. Then there were no current contradictions in the conservative bloc, and only two parties agreed on future activities - the CDU / CSU and the SPD. Today, taking into account the special position of the CSU, there are four of them.
The procedure of forming the ruling alliance is quite long. First, the parties will negotiate and agree on the composition of the proposed coalition. Then, at their congresses, they will formalize the ruling coalition and give start to negotiations on the conclusion of a coalition agreement - the action program of the future cabinet.
Only after that will work begin on the coordination of program positions. This year, she has her differences. Liberals and “greens” have already expressed their support for submitting a coalition agreement for the approval of members of their parties. The fact is that such a format of the ruling coalition in Germany appears for the first time. According to the leaders of these parties, he demands a certain legitimization in German society.
The proposed procedure will take a lot of time and will require significant funds. After all, a written survey of all registered party members is planned. In 90 / Greens Union, more than 60 thousand people need to be interviewed, and about half a million for free democrats. Only after such approval of the coalition agreement will the Bundestag swear in a new government.
All this time, Merkel's office, and the Chancellor herself will be in a rather limbo. They say that the coalition may not overcome the existing contradictions. Then you have to go to the new elections. A premonition of this brings some nervousness to European politicians. Since the German Chancellor - the actual leader of a united Europe - in their actions will be linked to internal problems. Without it, the European Union will become something like a school class without a teacher.
To some extent this has already manifested itself in recent months. The busy electoral agenda of Germany was challenged by the Poles, Germans, Hungarians, Balts. Came out from under the German tutelage of the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko. By the way, he congratulated Angela Merkel on his victory in the parliamentary elections and noted that Merkel’s success “is bringing the restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine closer”.
Given the fact that Poroshenko frankly headed for the forceful return of Donbass to Ukraine, the statement turned out to be quite ambiguous. But Merkel was silent. She even slowed down her activity in the Norman format, as if giving a blank check to the Ukrainian president on his questionable search initiatives. weapons to continue the war with the unrecognized republics. Frau Merkel is no longer up to Ukraine. In Kiev, it felt like nowhere, and even stopped talking about the Minsk agreements.
They sank not only political projects with the participation of Germany, but also economic ones. It has affected Russia. On Tuesday, Vladimir Putin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, said that the future of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline would become clear only after the formation of a new German government.
The examples cited clearly show the real influence of the German government and its leader on stability and predictability in Europe. In light of this, the current games in the political “Jamaica” are no longer an intra-German affair, but a problem for the whole of Europe. The sooner this problem is resolved safely for Germany, the less will there be from its long-term consequences on the continent.
Information