Point of no return passed. The peace initiative of Moscow in the Donbass is thrown "into the furnace": a blank check for Kiev is ready for activation
Within a few days, a whole series of significant events took place, demonstrating the complete failure of the Russian initiative to deploy the UN peacekeeping contingent on the contact line between the LDNR and the territory of the republics occupied by Ukrainian military formations. One of them, without any doubt, can be considered an attack by US Vice President Mike Pence and the illegitimate President of Ukraine P. Poroshenko at the 72 session of the UN General Assembly. The latter decided to leave the hall of the ministerial meeting of the UN Security Council immediately before the speech of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, which can already be perceived as a kind of boycott of any proposals by the Russian Federation on the peaceful settlement of the conflict in the Donbas. However, against the background of the announcement of the provision of additional military assistance to Kiev, including the transfer of several hundred all-wheel drive armored cars HMMWV and 500 million dollars for the development of the defense industry, there is nothing surprising in this.
To the second indicator, we can safely count the results of the last meeting of Sergey Lavrov with US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in New York, held on September 18, according to which the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry made a brief statement that “work on the Russian draft resolution on the deployment of peacekeeping forces in Donbas continues. " Speaking directly, the American side "under no sauce" will not accept the Russian formula for deploying a peacekeeping contingent on the front lines of Novorossia. After all, the West regards the artillery units of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as the basis for the cessation of shelling of residential areas of Gorlovka, Donetsk, Kominternovo and other localities of the republics, and the Ukrainian regular and volunteer military forces, where the so-called "selective peacekeepers" of the UN should clean up these territories a kind of "barrier" of "vultures" and "looking" that will impede the supply of Russian weapons and volunteers across the border when the APU begins to mennuyu artillery training in cities of the republic and the advanced units of the militia LDNR Corps. Such a situation in the root does not suit Moscow, in connection with which the ignore the cunning American proposal was not long in coming.
Moreover, the press secretary of the president of Russia, Dmitry Peskov, said that the UN peacekeeping mission can be located on the contact line only after approval by all the warring parties. The position voiced by the leadership of the republics completely coincides with the Russian one, but, as we see, no one is going to listen to it. What is even more alarming, there are more and more prerequisites that should now force the command of the LDNR people's militia corps to think about their defensive potential and counter-offensive capabilities in the Telman and Debaltsev operational areas. And given the imminent start of deliveries to Kiev of additional armament and radio-electronic equipment for the network-centric war, a significant “north wind” may be required, which was observed only in the summer and autumn of 2014. Delays can lead to fatal consequences for Novorossia and the extremely difficult operational and strategic situation on the western borders of the Southern Military District of Russia. This is clearly evidenced by the large-scale transfer of regular units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the border of the Republic of Crimea.
The last meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group within the framework of Minsk 2.0 pushes even more vague thoughts. This three-year-old “masquerade” has not brought any constructive proposals from the Ukrainian side for a long time; on the other hand, he contributed greatly to the creation of a decree of the military leadership of the Lugansk People’s Republic on the complete prohibition of return counter-battery fire on artillery batteries fired at the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It got to the point that the “Minsk format” became the direct generator of the genocide of the Russian population of the LPR. The picture is really absurd! And what to expect in the near future? To be honest, a regular three-year search for new answers to this boring question has had time to annoy most sensible political analysts and analysts who are preparing predictive works; but if the real hopeless “stagnation” of the conflict in the Donbas was previously observed, then very soon several resolution models may appear at once. As you already understood, none of them provides for a peaceful "loophole", and soon we will be able to make sure of this.
At the time, while Poroshenko continues to amuse the world community with demonstration of documents allegedly by Russian servicemen “in the Donbas in the number of 6 thousand people”, and Saakashvili collects brainless electorate to implement the next “pseudo-maid” plans against the background of issuing the first autumn receipts with increased tariffs on thermal energy, diverting the population from more serious military-political metamorphosis, inevitably approaches a rather important date (October 18), which can be a turning point in the operational-t actual situation in the Donbass theater of military operations, or even completely “pull” the large-scale conflict in the region of the Southern Military District of Russia. On this day, the term “On the Special Status of Donbass” expires and Kiev legally leaves the field of the “Minsk Agreements”. Despite the fact that the Vice-Chairman of the People’s Council of the LPR Vladislav Dane, as well as the Acting The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the DPR, Natalya Nikonorov, more than once officially called on the Ukrainian side to immediately extend the action of this bill, in order to avoid further “surprises”, in Kiev they don’t even think about it.
Moreover, they are preparing their own escalation "surprises" there. Bit by bit, the current situation is extremely beneficial for the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics in that after the first attempt to "wash with the blood" of the republic, the NM LPR corps receive carte blanche for very serious retaliatory measures, up to a full-fledged counteroffensive in the main operational areas. This offensive can end both along the borders of the former Donetsk and Lugansk regions, and in the southwestern regions of Ukraine, where an anti-Ukrainian sentiment among the population is being expressed more and more often and on an ever larger scale. The armored potential of the 1st Army Corps of the DNR NM, represented by 250 - 300 MBT T-72A / AV / B and T-64BV, is quite enough to break through the only powerful line of fortified areas of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, located in the area of the Mariupol-Donetsk highway (n. Granitnoe, Anadol, Donskoe, etc.), after which the "Mariupol boiler" will be formed. The most important stage for the 1st AK NM DNR before the counteroffensive will be the timely destruction of Ukrainian artillery batteries carrying out artillery barrage at the same long-suffering settlements of Novoazovsky and Telmanovsky districts, as well as preventing a breakthrough tank platoons of the 59th separate motorized infantry brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Shirokino, Lebedinsky and Talakovka deeper than strongholds in Sakhanka, Zaichenko and October.
Virtually all the data coming in today from the operational command of the NM of the DPR indicate an escalation of the conflict precisely on the southern part of the contact line. So, 19-21 September 2017 of the year, 2 tank platoon (6 tanks) 59 th OMBR moved from the village of Old Crimea (north-western outskirts of Mariupol) in the settlement Primorskoe, which is just 9 -10 km from the contact line. In September alone, no less than 5 was made in the new Azov movement, which means that the front line is constantly updated with new technology designed for the maneuverable phase of the war. In addition to two or three dozen deployed tanks, Priazovskiy theater of operations is saturated with large-caliber barrel artillery, arriving in Sartana, Pavlopol and Granite to support future offensive moves.
Against the backdrop of the apparent refusal of Washington and Kiev from the Russian peacekeeping initiative in the Donbass, it looks very interesting that the almost simultaneous conclusion of a contract with the Polish company WB Electronics SA for the purchase of Warmate unmanned loitering munitions, capable of loitering in the air for up to 30 minutes and attacking ground targets on distance 10 km. Some reviewers and incompetent bloggers claim the data drones do not pose a big threat to the armored units of the NM LDNR, since it is almost impossible to clearly aim a “drone projectile” at a moving target; similar conclusions can be found in the Militia Briefs community. However, this is absolutely not the case.
“Warmit” ammunition "Warmate" with a control panel and a directional antenna post for two-way communication and receiving telemetry information
Firstly, “Warmate”, which has a diving speed of about 200 km / h, is easy enough to send to a large mobile ground object like “tank”, because their glider is represented by a developed direct wing of a large area, which allows you to vigorously maneuver both in horizontal flight and in dive mode. Secondly, the "equipment" can be represented by a cumulative GK-1 warhead with armor penetration from 100 to 120 mm. An experienced operator is fully capable of directing Warmate ammo in such vulnerable areas of the tank as the upper armor-guard of the turret or military equipment. The two Warmate vulnerabilities are the radio command control system and the television homing head.
The electronic intelligence units of the LDNR have vast experience in intercepting and determining the frequency parameters of the analog control radio channel by the American MQ-11 Raven UAVs, and therefore the Polish Drones can complicate the task only if equipped with broadband radio control modules with frequency hopping. On the flight path, it is possible to confuse the operator by setting up a smoke screen from the GPA. Another option is to intercept a drone using the ZU-23-3, or the Osa-AK air defense missile system using a television optical sight, because the widespread use of composite materials can reduce the RCS to 0,02 m2, through which radar detection and tracking stations complex "Osa-AK" do not work. All the facts of the militarization of the Armed Forces of Ukraine demonstrate active preparation for hostilities, not inferior to those observed in the 14th year; events will begin to develop more contrastingly and quickly immediately after the upcoming consultations of the leaders of the "Normandy Four" and after the end of the "crown law" on October 18.
Information sources:
https://www.donetsk.kp.ru/online/news/2875692/
http://www.politnavigator.net/dejjnego-ukraina-ne-sobiraetsya-prodlevat-zakon-ob-osobom-statuse-donbassa.html
http://wb.com.pl/warmate-en/?lang=en
Information