The Zapad-2017 exercises are used to test the response of Russia and Belarus to the Maidan in Belarus according to the Ukrainian scenario (if the West tries to destabilize the country through this scenario), Bloomberg claims. According to the publication, the nationalists will be suppressed, after which the West will immediately intervene, and from that moment the war will begin.
- Is such a scenario realistic, and what is actually being worked out at the West-2017 exercises?
- Such a scenario is unlikely. This is fiction. This история specially spins in the media, and far from being neutral. This hysteria about the “threat factor” is especially clearly unwound in Eastern European countries, while the population of these countries, and of Europe as a whole, reacts rather calmly to the fact of the exercises. Does not notice at all. This is interesting.
At the same time, the leadership of the Baltic countries, Poland, these horror stories also support and promote, which speaks about the custom nature of various kinds of similar publications and statements ... They are paid, apparently, not bad, they want more, so there is a promotion of the threat allegedly coming from Russia .
How do we respond? The first is that you shouldn’t react to every barking of the pug, you have to take it calmly. Secondly, we, the Russian public, the media of Russia and Belarus, need to pronounce such a thing: we will not only conquer you, but we will never again protect you.
And these teachings are planned. About them it was known two years ago. The 2015 exercises have ended, and everyone already knew that in 2017 these exercises would again be. The exercises are defensive, defensive operations are worked out on them. The attack factor is always practiced, not an act of aggression.
Indeed, to some extent, these exercises are the answer to these deployments of individual battalions with brigade infrastructure at our borders, constant provocations not only in the form of exercises, but also all sorts of flights, ships entering the surrounding waters, into the airspace.
We see who is behind this. Passed in the northwest last year strategic, aviation NATO exercises, where American strategic aviation was involved. And these maneuvers were clearly directed in our direction. When up to ninety combat aircraft were simultaneously in the air - we did not panic, we strengthened our air defense systems. But these are more dangerous maneuvers than current exercises.
Or the same BALTOPS exercises that NATO regularly conducts in the Baltic Sea zone. They were held at the time of our friendship with NATO and with the United States — at the end of the nineties, and at the beginning of the two thousandth, they were and are being held. And there really is an escalation of aggressive intentions. First, the national armed forces begin their exercises, which seem to reflect the Russian threat, then the main forces of European NATO are connected. Then and then the Americans enter into business, carrying out strategic redeployment to the area of the exercise, to our borders. This is really dangerous.
But we do not see any screeching going up here - the Ministry of Defense is reacting very calmly. Therefore, I would not pay special attention to these paid, customized articles, interviews, and so on.
- According to the attracted expert from the Kennan Institute, Michael Kofman, if earlier Russia was ready to launch a nuclear strike immediately when NATO invaded Belarus or Russia, now the Russian Federation sends a clear message: “First, we oppose the conventional forces to you and only let's strike a nuclear strike on you. ” How true is this reasoning?
- Somewhere close to the position of the Russian Federation, only the first part of this “reasoning”. The fact that we immediately planned to launch a nuclear strike is not so. In our military doctrine, in its second edition, it is prescribed that we will be ready to use nuclear weapon. However, tactical nuclear weapons are meant, and they will be used only against those countries, coalitions or blocs that commit an act of aggression without using nuclear weapons, but if this aggression threatens the existence of our state.
This is our position. Through “if” is not something that we immediately strike. If there is a threat to the existence of Belarus, and especially Russia, we will be ready to use weapons. But this is the norm, which is a warning of large-scale aggression, and, of course, the troops are preparing for it, they must do so.
In these exercises, as far as I know, not even an imitation of the use of nuclear weapons is planned. So - let them guess what they want.