The struggle of the two largest economies of the world is escalating

35
Perhaps, the comparison of the American and Chinese economies has never been as active as it has been recently. Experts and simply interested people are wondering whether China will be able to catch up and overtake the American financial system and, if so, when this can happen. Some are confident that by 2017, China will reach an unconditional place in the world on the scale of the economy, others predict that the loss of economic primacy by the United States can take place no earlier than the next decade. There are those who continue to be confident that neither now, nor after ten, nor even after twenty years will the Americans yield to their leading position in terms of the annual GDP level of any of the countries.

Disputes over the struggle for economic primacy between the United States and the PRC escalated after these two states with colossal financial systems decided to choose, in fact, two opposite options for further development. So, it became known that Washington is ready to print out oil reserves that have accumulated over a number of years. Beijing, on the contrary, continues to fill its oil jug, systematically pouring oil into its storage facilities in Lanzhou. The filling of the so-called first stage of this Chinese repository with more than 103 with millions of barrels of crude oil supplied to the Middle Kingdom from Central Asia has already been completed. By January 2013, the Chinese are planning to put into operation and the second stage of the storage, filling it another 168,6 million barrels.

Experts say that before 2020, Beijing plans to make an oil stabilization fund on the scale of 85 million tons for the development of the country, which is about 625 million barrels. If we consider that oil consumption in China today is about 9,5 million barrels of oil per day, then this reserve, given the growth of the Chinese economy (although slowed down in recent months), the Middle Kingdom is at best enough for a period of about 2's months. It would seem that the period is not so long as to extract huge funds from the budget for the accumulation of oil reserves, but two months is just the time that can guarantee a calm development of the country in the case of another epic with Western victorious wars and an active oil phase. embargo against one of the exporting countries.

It turns out that China is preparing a kind of oil Noah's ark, which will be able to keep the country afloat during the time of the new global economic flood. Whether the PRC “grabs” a pair of each “creature” into this ark is a big question ...

At the same time, it seems that the US authorities finally decided to launch a hand into their own oil storage, which at one time was also intended as a kind of reserve that would save the US economy from negative trends. Apparently, the time to start using the NZ has already arrived, which can only say one thing: the American financial system is experiencing enormous problems today and is trying to save itself by actually keeping oil prices at an acceptable level. After the absolute record of crude oil production was recorded in March last year (almost 90 million barrels per day), a steady decline began. This is mainly due to the situation around Libya, Syria and Iran. The decline in production affected the world prices for “black gold”, and these prices confidently crept upwards.

The recently published scheme of the ratio of oil reserves in US storages and oil prices in the world suggests that by March 2012, the situation is very similar to that observed at the beginning of 2008, the year of the first big crisis wave. The strategic reserves of the United States at that time were at the level of slightly less than 700 million barrels (the mark to which China is aiming), and the level of market prices was equal to 120-130 dollars per barrel of "black gold". Apparently, the statistical report caused an extremely negative reaction in the US government circles and in order to avoid repeating the blow to the economy of the 2008 sample, Washington is ready to make a decision to “drain some oil” for direct consumption. This decision would allow to drop world oil prices. But…

In this case, the reverse reaction can already go. China against the background of falling prices, if desired, may well step up purchases of crude oil in the same Central Asia in order to continue to fill its storage facilities in Lanzhou with double the force. It turns out that the West, led by the United States, will use, among other things, old stocks, trying to curb oil prices, and China, in turn, will take advantage of this to solve its own problems. And as soon as the exchanges realize that China’s level of oil purchases has not only not decreased, but has increased significantly, as the price of a barrel of “black gold” can rise again. It turns out that expecting a serious fall in prices in the near future due to the uncorking of the American oil pod should not be at least because it will only stimulate Chinese demand.

In this regard, Americans may face the problem that filling up storage facilities in Lanzhou will drastically hamper Washington’s plans to reduce global hydrocarbon prices. In this case, the United States and China will have to look for the balance of the ratio “price - volume of reserves” that would suit two giant economies. After all, if such a balance is not found, then both financial systems may provoke a new financial crisis, compared to which the old crisis will seem like nothing more than an ordinary accounting oversight.
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  1. +2
    20 March 2012 08: 18
    The reverse side of China's industrial growth:

    http://nnm.ru/blogs/socratesww/shokiruyushie_fotografii_-_zagryaznenie_v_kitae/

    http://fishki.net/comment.php?id=80379

    http://midgard.ws/zagazovannyj-kitaj
    1. +1
      20 March 2012 09: 08
      I could be wrong, but it seems that all economically developed countries started this way ...
      1. Uralm
        +1
        20 March 2012 10: 25
        All these are stock market games about strategic stocks. As a result, the amount is almost funny, and volumes. Such a trifle can concern only exchange players. And for countries, an airbag and just
        1. Churchill
          +3
          20 March 2012 22: 03
          China dumps dollars! And it’s impossible to calculate Chinese oil reserves, they won’t!
          1. +1
            20 March 2012 23: 49
            It dumps not only China. Soon, well, very soon there will be an acute problem of recycling candy wrappers.
  2. +6
    20 March 2012 08: 18
    The struggle is escalating, only the states have less and less financial opportunities to defeat China. The best way for them (and the shortest) is to aggravate relations to an armed confrontation (which, in spite of the frightening face, is beyond their strength) or try to draw the Chinese into the orbit of any integration processes. If you figure in both the one and the other version, China has more trump cards on hand in this game. But, they are narrow-eyed devils, because they are not predictable! Now they are having an internal party brawl, and whoever emerges victorious in it will rule in the wind favorable to him.
    1. +2
      20 March 2012 08: 38
      I agree ... As a result, China is in a better position ... As, in other matters, all young people .. They are growing, and the Americans are trying to save their strength ... Only all the efforts are crushed on colossal expenses for military and political needs ... The Americans launched a lot of expensive projects around the world, and the money stopped flowing in the river .. Hence the policy of stirring up Asia and North Africa, the policy of clashing by any EU countries ...
      1. 0
        20 March 2012 10: 13
        Yes, there is no struggle ... I turned on the thought and realized a simple thing - the hand cannot fight the head ... Tear off the hand (and China is the world industrial zone) - it will die, and the head will work .. But tear off the head and hand kirdyk. ..
        1. Sasha36543
          +1
          20 March 2012 18: 30
          Rather, not the head, but the stomach.
    2. +1
      20 March 2012 09: 26
      Although China has more cards, the United States has jokers up its sleeve: the separatist movement inside the PRC and Iran, by attacking it, will be able to put a stick to our neighbor (at the same time, the rising India will be slowed down).
      What the Americans will do, only time will tell.
      1. +11
        20 March 2012 09: 59
        Quote: RedDragoN
        separatist movement inside China

        Alexander, good day! Do not overestimate the separatist movements within the PRC. China is not Russia with its glance (I hope this will change soon) to "world opinion". They would roll out tanks on the bridge and they didn't care about the opinion of the West. But the West is forced to listen to the opinion of the PRC because tied to the Middle Kingdom with threads that you will not see either at first or second glance --------- bully Now let's compare how the advocates of good and justice react to the violation of the rights of one oligarch and the death of one employee of an American company compared to human rights violations in their main economic partner, China. On which the American economy depends no less than Europe on Russian energy resources.

        I must say that the information below is not secret, it has been in the public domain for many years, but it is rarely covered in the media dealing with human rights violations in Syria, Iran and Russia. We are talking about 36 Chinese death camps, where from 2001 to 2007 at least 41500 political prisoners were subjected to the removal of internal organs. For sale, including to western tourists who came to China for surgery.

        In those not too distant times, transplant tourism to China was quite commonplace. After all, in the USA you can wait for a suitable heart for five years, but in China they guaranteed to pick it up in two weeks. But let's look at the facts in a bit more detail.

        It all started in 1992, when one master of an ancient Chinese school of qigong "Falun Gong" (who does not know what qigong is, is a Chinese analogue of Indian yoga), decided to popularize his school. And the time was the most suitable. In the 70s of the 20th century, the Cultural Revolution swept into which the majority of carriers of spiritual and cultural knowledge in the country were destroyed. That is, there was a kind of spiritual vacuum.

        To what extent the vacuum can be described by the example of Catholics. In China there is an official Catholic Church, which the Vatican does not recognize, because its members do not recognize the authority of the Pope, but are under the direct control of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). And those Chinese who consider themselves to be true Catholics are declared sectarians in China and are persecuted along with Tibetans and Uighurs.

        Against this background, the new philosophical doctrine of spiritual self-cultivation of Falun Gong has become overly popular and has gained about 100 million followers in seven years. And when a statistical study revealed that there were more of his followers than members of the Communist Party, and many communists practiced Falun Gong, which meant they considered his philosophy better than communist ideology.

        In general, the then Communist Party leader Jiang Zemin placed Falun Gong on a par with other repressed religions. (Although Falun Gong is essentially a philosophical, not a religious teaching). For this, a series of provocations were carried out, the description of which will take a very long time, so we omit them. For us, the only important thing is that in 1999, mass arrests of people practicing Falun Gong began. It is also important to say that according to Chinese laws, anyone who violates public peace can be sent to a labor camp without a trial, which is necessary for imprisonment.

        There is article 300 in the Chinese Penal Code on “harming the rule of law through illegal religious activity.” Under which you can bring anything you want. (During the Chinese Olympics, for example, athletes wanted to ban the passage of Bibles to China).

        But back to the arrests. When it became known that after the arrest of one Falun Gong practitioner, all his relatives were either reprimanded with fines at work or completely deprived of it, the arrested stopped giving their names. Thus, thousands, if not tens of thousands of people, without names, i.e. without proper legal clearance. And in 2001, the number of transplant operations in China increased sharply.

        Prior to this, organs were cut from executed prisoners, but the number of official executions has not increased since 2001. Using only open statistical information, human rights activists found that from 2001 to 2007 in China there were 41500 operations in which the organ donor was not indicated. (In the case when the donor, the executed criminal, they wrote about this openly).



        Another digression. Human rights defenders in China are not the same as human rights defenders in Russia, the United States, or elsewhere. In China, their professional risk is bone fractures during arrests, and they don’t go into this profession for Western grants.

        Those who conducted the investigation did very simply. They found on the Internet the sites of major transplant clinics in China and called there under the guise of people in need of organs. In 60% of cases, doctors did not hesitate to say that they themselves select donors from healthy prisoners in labor camps. When callers asked if it was possible to get an organ from a Falun Gong practitioner (they seemed to be healthier than ordinary prisoners), the doctors openly stated that all of their donors were Falun Gong practitioners. (The life of the enemy of the people by which they were declared by the Chinese media is worthless in China). Translations of these records can be read in a special report on the illegal sale of organs of the report "Bloody Harvest".

        If the American senators, as the main fighters for human rights, did not know anything about this, this would explain their zealous struggle against the 15-day detention of the Russian opposition, but they definitely know about it. And they even adopted one resolution condemning the persecution of Falun Gong in China. But either the lives of tens of thousands of Chinese in American eyes cannot compare with the violated rights of several Russians, or politicians are so firmly bogged down in their schizophrenia that they cannot adequately assess, not even their words, but how they are perceived in the world ...
        belay recourse
        1. -3
          20 March 2012 10: 56
          Do not confuse separatism and religion. If the United States begins to pour money into the separatists, then China will begin to have problems
          1. +1
            20 March 2012 12: 24
            The US Commission on Religious Freedom in the World recommended Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to include 16 countries on the list of malicious violators of human rights in the field of religious freedom ...

            Together with Tajikistan and Turkey, the list of those who "systematically and explicitly" violate freedom of religion includes Vietnam, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, North Korea, China, Myanmar, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Eritrea.

            The findings of the Commission on Freedom of Religion in the World are advisory in nature to the US administration. The Department of State annually compiles its own list of malicious violators, which, as a rule, is much smaller than in the commission’s report. However, sanctions may be applied to countries on the list of the Department of State.
        2. ole
          ole
          +2
          20 March 2012 21: 03
          esaul,
          Thank you very interesting infa, it just says that if there is a war with China (God forbid), it will be very cruel and the indigenous population will be uninsured from cutting, they have different morals and assessments and criteria in determining morality.
  3. +2
    20 March 2012 08: 26
    I was at the first and last non-contact karate championship in Russia ... This all reminds me of it ... But full contact seems to be in another place ... no one will recommend a Chinese language textbook ...
    1. +3
      20 March 2012 08: 39
      laughing The tongue is not very important .. The main ryashok needs to be eaten ... so that it was round, you didn’t open your eyes wide and recolor your hair black ...
    2. +1
      20 March 2012 10: 15
      And I’ll fundamentally teach Chukchi .. Until the Chinese reach there laughing A Chinese dragon will never crawl out of a hole ... As in a joke ... A Serpent climbs -Gorynych through an emergency exit from a hole ...- Let the earthworm, let the smelly coward, let it be green .. For that alive .. Well, this Ilya of Muromets ...
      1. vylvyn
        0
        21 March 2012 03: 58
        According to the FMS of the Russian Federation, 1 Chinese is now in Chukotka. He works as a cook. Three or 4 years ago there were 4 Chinese people. One left. In 2008, entrepreneurs applied for work permits for 12 Chinese people. From this or next year, a mass visit of the Chinese is planned (about 5 or 10 thousand people) to work at the Nagornaya coal mine sold to China (Beringovsky settlement, Anadyrsky district, Chukotka Autonomous Okrug). So, brother, you still have to learn Chinese. laughing
  4. Sarus
    0
    20 March 2012 08: 57
    domokl))))
    But I think that such pessimistic thoughts are not necessary.
    China, if it turns up to us, it will be very sorry ..
    It’s not even a matter of getting his army firmly.
    And in ordinary Siberian frosts. Fighting at - 40 or - 45 oh how difficult it is ... But what to fight .. just go along the street ...
    So while it’s cold here in Siberia and the Far East no one is afraid)))
    1. +3
      20 March 2012 10: 17
      But what's the big deal in our frosts? I’m going and nothing ... Only it’s rather difficult in the toilet in the frost and wind ... Until you find something there .. The problem is ... The machine is wrinkled from frost ... laughing
  5. +2
    20 March 2012 09: 38
    Interestingly, in the West, the largest economy is considered to be the one that is in debt like in silk! So the topic "The struggle between the two largest economies in the world is escalating" looks rather controversial in my opinion!
  6. +9
    20 March 2012 10: 36
    The struggle of the two largest economies of the world is escalating

    there is no struggle there, they complement each other very well, but not equally. The Chinese economy is tied to the American economy, investment in the manufacturing sector, staff training, technology transfer - all this comes to China mainly from America.

    The Chinese economy is generally still alive only thanks to the artificially held yuan. Today, no company transfers production to China - it is no longer profitable.

    I have been working with China and the USA for over 10 years. I personally transferred production from California to Shanghai, I can write a book about this. laughing The productivity of Chinese production is at least two times lower than that of the American one; there is no question of quality in general. In the company with which I work, the staff turnover is from 40 to 60% per year and this is in high-tech in a clean production. After the Chinese New Year, about a quarter of workers do not return to the factory from the village, and so every year. What kind of professionalism can we talk about?

    In the city of Suju, 2-3 windows are burning in a huge microdistrict, they cannot sell the rest, but they continue to build so that the pace of economic development does not fall. The price of one meter of housing has almost equaled the European one and overtook the American one. Most workers rent housing in the squad, according to 5-6 people in a small apartment. There are no pensions ...

    One example is indicative. The same company transferred (fired in Philadelphia and hired to Suju) about 150 programmers. More precisely, they fired about 50, and they hired about 150. So the type will still be cheaper. I arrived in China after half a year and did not see a single programmer. It turned out that it was cheaper to pay $ 120000 per year to American programmers than 5 times less to Chinese ...
    1. recitatorus
      +4
      20 March 2012 16: 45
      Well, the book is not needed yet, Professor, and the cycle of articles, to review the situation, is yours!
      1. +3
        20 March 2012 17: 06
        К Military Review it has no relation (the enterprise is exclusively peaceful), but in other places I haven’t written yet. wink

        PS.
        Here is another example. Over the course of 5-6 years, Western managers have been appointed managers of the transferred enterprises (they do not trust local ones). At that facility, the CEO was an American. He was shocked when he found out the reason why one machine did not start in the morning. At night, the hard drive from the computer disappeared. He was naive with such in his native California did not come across. Since then, everything that can be locked is locked. And as the flip side of the coin, you can spend hours looking for the key to some cabinet. In Irvine at the factory, the entire instrument was located at hand, and Suju it was all locked ... Mentality however. laughing
        1. +3
          20 March 2012 20: 51
          Professorrequire a series of articles fellow you managed to intrigue us feel especially since your military publications were very good and accurate !!! love
          1. Churchill
            +2
            20 March 2012 22: 07
            I support! The economic base of the likely adversary is precisely the topic of military observation!
  7. +4
    20 March 2012 10: 41
    Eh, I would have read this little article in the 90s, when our liberals, headed by Yegor Gaidarii, were shouting about the "western" model of the market economy. Here it is - a good example of how the planned social economy bends the vaunted American market. Neither "market relations" with "healthy competition" help, nor even the printed green bills, which free of charge get the same oil that the same China buys for real money. Where are they now, these market preachers? Somehow, everyone somehow sank, but they are still quietly grabbing our last state assets. Through American banks.
    Let the guys, we will finally see the light, but even if in the Internet space we somehow struggle with these "market people".
  8. Roman A
    +1
    20 March 2012 10: 59
    I DO NOT like these two economies, both have claims to the former USSR. It’s good that someone would measure it would be easier to breathe with a gun
  9. Patos89
    +1
    20 March 2012 11: 18
    The Chinese economy is dependent on the United States and Western countries, so China is not going anywhere.
  10. in4ser
    0
    20 March 2012 14: 40
    What should worry us more: China, which establishes control of the world, or China, which is crumbling and enthralling the whole world?
    -- neither one nor the other. When demand is curtailed in the west (in America), China automatically drowns, because everything is tied to external demand, and they do not have time to develop internal demand. And those 300 million that still live well will soon suck their paws along with the rest of their fellow citizens who live on $ 4 a day at best. And we know that 100 million of them are beyond the poverty line of $ 1 per day.
  11. 755962
    +1
    20 March 2012 16: 24
    While the United States intends to sell oil from a strategic reserve, China resumes building up strategic reserves.
    The history of two civilizations, one rising and the other declining, can perhaps be summarized by the way they rationally use the most important reserve of the future - energy, in this case - how China and the United States manage their respective strategic oil reserves. While in Washington, the entire political crowd was buzzing about whether the United States would start selling oil from strategic reserves, just to appease those Obama voters who have jobs and need a car to get to it, the US opponent in civilizational conflict acted directly opposite direction. According to Bloomberg, China, "according to official figures from the largest producer of crude oil, has begun filling its strategic storage facilities in Lanzhou, in the northwest of the country." Unlike the United States, where everything is now a function of market liquidity, evil speculators and political ambitions ("rest in peace" supply and demand), China, completely ignoring all this everyday mundane husk, is doing what is right - preparing for "surprises" in the supply of crude oil. "Surprises" are 100% guaranteed if Panetta-McCain is given the green light to "release" Iranian oil, i.e. the process for which all previous years have been preparing will be launched.
  12. 0
    20 March 2012 21: 16
    Americans need to learn to live on the money they earn, and here are two ways:
    The first (but unlikely) Americans will cut their spending to the maximum, withdraw troops from all wars. This will raise the dollar, but drop the influence in the world!
    Second (it seems they are going this way) It is necessary to unleash a colossal conflict with the participation of the same China. This will allow us not to repay our debts and support the dollar and American influence!
    1. Dmitry.V
      0
      21 March 2012 13: 03
      It is unlikely that they would go on the 1st path, I can’t even imagine it. On the 2nd path Russia was drawn in without even asking.
  13. vylvyn
    +3
    21 March 2012 04: 13
    I agree. They have debts, mother dear. And something is inaudible that they give something to someone. It is only we who are so decent. I remember the club of Paris (where the well-known purebred Frenchman Berezovsky was immediately there), when Yeltsin was paid the debts of two hundred years ago. But those who owed us - so we forgave all of them. True, for some reason no one appreciated this - neither those who were paid, nor those who were forgiven.
  14. Ahmar
    0
    21 March 2012 16: 19
    http://www.imperiya.by/politics1-12315.html
    Fighting Middle Eastern Power Centers

"Right Sector" (banned in Russia), "Ukrainian Insurgent Army" (UPA) (banned in Russia), ISIS (banned in Russia), "Jabhat Fatah al-Sham" formerly "Jabhat al-Nusra" (banned in Russia) , Taliban (banned in Russia), Al-Qaeda (banned in Russia), Anti-Corruption Foundation (banned in Russia), Navalny Headquarters (banned in Russia), Facebook (banned in Russia), Instagram (banned in Russia), Meta (banned in Russia), Misanthropic Division (banned in Russia), Azov (banned in Russia), Muslim Brotherhood (banned in Russia), Aum Shinrikyo (banned in Russia), AUE (banned in Russia), UNA-UNSO (banned in Russia), Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People (banned in Russia), Legion “Freedom of Russia” (armed formation, recognized as terrorist in the Russian Federation and banned)

“Non-profit organizations, unregistered public associations or individuals performing the functions of a foreign agent,” as well as media outlets performing the functions of a foreign agent: “Medusa”; "Voice of America"; "Realities"; "Present time"; "Radio Freedom"; Ponomarev; Savitskaya; Markelov; Kamalyagin; Apakhonchich; Makarevich; Dud; Gordon; Zhdanov; Medvedev; Fedorov; "Owl"; "Alliance of Doctors"; "RKK" "Levada Center"; "Memorial"; "Voice"; "Person and law"; "Rain"; "Mediazone"; "Deutsche Welle"; QMS "Caucasian Knot"; "Insider"; "New Newspaper"