The struggle of the two largest economies of the world is escalating
Disputes over the struggle for economic primacy between the United States and the PRC escalated after these two states with colossal financial systems decided to choose, in fact, two opposite options for further development. So, it became known that Washington is ready to print out oil reserves that have accumulated over a number of years. Beijing, on the contrary, continues to fill its oil jug, systematically pouring oil into its storage facilities in Lanzhou. The filling of the so-called first stage of this Chinese repository with more than 103 with millions of barrels of crude oil supplied to the Middle Kingdom from Central Asia has already been completed. By January 2013, the Chinese are planning to put into operation and the second stage of the storage, filling it another 168,6 million barrels.
Experts say that before 2020, Beijing plans to make an oil stabilization fund on the scale of 85 million tons for the development of the country, which is about 625 million barrels. If we consider that oil consumption in China today is about 9,5 million barrels of oil per day, then this reserve, given the growth of the Chinese economy (although slowed down in recent months), the Middle Kingdom is at best enough for a period of about 2's months. It would seem that the period is not so long as to extract huge funds from the budget for the accumulation of oil reserves, but two months is just the time that can guarantee a calm development of the country in the case of another epic with Western victorious wars and an active oil phase. embargo against one of the exporting countries.
It turns out that China is preparing a kind of oil Noah's ark, which will be able to keep the country afloat during the time of the new global economic flood. Whether the PRC “grabs” a pair of each “creature” into this ark is a big question ...
At the same time, it seems that the US authorities finally decided to launch a hand into their own oil storage, which at one time was also intended as a kind of reserve that would save the US economy from negative trends. Apparently, the time to start using the NZ has already arrived, which can only say one thing: the American financial system is experiencing enormous problems today and is trying to save itself by actually keeping oil prices at an acceptable level. After the absolute record of crude oil production was recorded in March last year (almost 90 million barrels per day), a steady decline began. This is mainly due to the situation around Libya, Syria and Iran. The decline in production affected the world prices for “black gold”, and these prices confidently crept upwards.
The recently published scheme of the ratio of oil reserves in US storages and oil prices in the world suggests that by March 2012, the situation is very similar to that observed at the beginning of 2008, the year of the first big crisis wave. The strategic reserves of the United States at that time were at the level of slightly less than 700 million barrels (the mark to which China is aiming), and the level of market prices was equal to 120-130 dollars per barrel of "black gold". Apparently, the statistical report caused an extremely negative reaction in the US government circles and in order to avoid repeating the blow to the economy of the 2008 sample, Washington is ready to make a decision to “drain some oil” for direct consumption. This decision would allow to drop world oil prices. But…
In this case, the reverse reaction can already go. China against the background of falling prices, if desired, may well step up purchases of crude oil in the same Central Asia in order to continue to fill its storage facilities in Lanzhou with double the force. It turns out that the West, led by the United States, will use, among other things, old stocks, trying to curb oil prices, and China, in turn, will take advantage of this to solve its own problems. And as soon as the exchanges realize that China’s level of oil purchases has not only not decreased, but has increased significantly, as the price of a barrel of “black gold” can rise again. It turns out that expecting a serious fall in prices in the near future due to the uncorking of the American oil pod should not be at least because it will only stimulate Chinese demand.
In this regard, Americans may face the problem that filling up storage facilities in Lanzhou will drastically hamper Washington’s plans to reduce global hydrocarbon prices. In this case, the United States and China will have to look for the balance of the ratio “price - volume of reserves” that would suit two giant economies. After all, if such a balance is not found, then both financial systems may provoke a new financial crisis, compared to which the old crisis will seem like nothing more than an ordinary accounting oversight.
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