Iran: the road to war - or "last chance"?

If Iran declares that its atomic program is aimed at exclusively peaceful purposes - so that there is a current in the sockets - then Israel and the Western countries have an opinion on this matter, which even American intelligence, who reported recently that the work on creating nuclear weapons Tehran stopped in 2003 year.

At the end of February, 2012, according to a report of as many as sixteen (!) American intelligence services, it became clear to the general public that “Iran does not develop nuclear weapons,” The Los Angeles Times writes. According to the newspaper, the intelligence officers came to the conclusion that such studies were discontinued back in 2003 year. ” However, this document also “says that Tehran intends to achieve a level of knowledge that will allow it to create a bomb if necessary. The compilers of the report also note that Israel fully agrees with its main points and conclusions ”(source of both quotes:

The background to the “pre-nuclear crisis” is as follows. Iran has been developing nuclear technology for a long time - since the 80s of the last century, but before it did so quietly, it pretty surprised the experts from the IAEA who came to 2003 in the year to conclude that the Iranians skillfully concealed their nuclear program for eighteen years. Iran announced it was stopping nuclear work, but changed its mind - so much so that in 2006, Tehran announced the continuation of its own nuclear program. To the stubborn Tehran, the UN Security Council responded: in December, 2006 imposed economic sanctions on Iran, including the ban on the supply of technology to Iran that would promote the development of a nuclear missile program. But Tehran is not so easy to scare. In the spring of 2007, as if to everyone in spite, Iran has already declared about industrial enrichment of uranium. Since then, the media began to appear on the military operation, planned against Iran by Israel, together with the United States. But in 2010, Iran officially announced the production of seventeen kilograms of highly enriched uranium, and in January of 2011, the full cycle of nuclear fuel production (for more details see:

In November, the IAEA issued a report to 2011 in which it was suggested that Iran is developing nuclear weapons. But - only an assumption.

15 February 2012 was a Iranian-made uranium fuel rods loaded into a research reactor in Tehran. The rods were made of uranium enriched to 20%. On the same day, a line of centrifuges for uranium enrichment was opened in Natanz.

Nine days before these events, Barack Obama ordered the blocking of Iranian financial assets in the United States, and earlier EU countries imposed economic sanctions against Iran. The US tried to complicate the work of Iranian banks, and the EU - to impede Iran’s trade in oil and oil products. Iran, in response, threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, which transports approximately 1 / 5 of all oil in the world. In addition, Iran, despite the fact that it had to look for new markets for its oil, threatened to freeze oil supplies to Europe - and began with the UK and France.

Quote from the articles by V. Sazhin ("Voice of Russia"):

“Iran produces about 4 million barrels of oil per day, of which about 2 million is exported. The share of Europe, according to various sources, is approximately 500 thousand barrels, that is, 20-25% of all exported oil. At 2011, Iran planned for the first time to receive about 100 billion dollars from oil exports. By the roughest estimates, Iran could lose from an oil embargo from 15 to 20 billion dollars a year.

For the Iranian economy, which is in a difficult condition even without an oil embargo, such a loss would certainly not be catastrophic, but still sensitive. Iranian currency - rial - is falling. A few years ago, one US dollar cost 9700 rials. In November, 2011 is near 11000 rials. And just after the announcement of the possibility of introducing an oil embargo by the EU, the rial rate fell by more than 70% - one dollar equates to 17000 rials. Over the past few months, prices for basic foodstuffs in Iran have increased by 40%. ”

It is not difficult to imagine what awaits the economy of Iran, when EU oil sanctions are introduced and they are joined, perhaps partly by Japan, South Korea and China. The consequence of this will be the inevitable decline in the standard of living of the population, which may well lead to an increase in discontent and intensification of protest activity. ”

22 February The 2012 of the IAEA inspectors, whom Tehran was officially waiting to visit, were not allowed into the Parchin military complex (30 km from Tehran). Earlier, at the end of January, the inspectors were not allowed there either. Experts visited Parchin earlier, in 2005, but they found nothing “criminal” there.

Next история it was developing against the backdrop of frequent statements by Israel and the United States about the operation against Iran - and, along with this, about possible retaliatory strikes by Iran. The line of economic sanctions harmoniously intertwined with the political plot.

15 March in the media there was information about the latest financial sanctions against Iran: about disconnecting Iranian banks from the SWIFT system - the Community of Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications. From March 16 "Iran will not be able to receive money for the oil sold, and will not be able to transfer funds for the purchase of goods and services abroad" ("Our cafe"). The executive director of SWIFT said: “Turning off banks is an extraordinary and unprecedented step for SWIFT. It is a direct result of international measures to strengthen financial sanctions against Iran "("News" with reference to the Associated Press). On the portal ISRAland believe that this "means in fact the global isolation of the economy of the Islamic Republic." Русская служба BBC reports: “This step will affect Iranians living abroad, as they will no longer be able to transfer money to their homeland. The Iranian companies operating abroad will also be in jeopardy. ”

The economic outcome of a global scale: “... on the London Exchange in the evening of the 16, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil rose by 2,5% to the dollar 125,7. On the Wall Street exchange, the price of a barrel of Texas oil has increased by 1,8% - to 107,09 dollars ”(ISRAland). (According to RBC data: the price of Brent oil at 16.03.2012 was 125,81 $ per barrel. For comparison: exactly a month ago a barrel of this oil was worth 119,58 $).

Local Economic Outcome: As the newspaper reported 15 March Chicago Tribune (authors of the article: Jonathan Saul and Michael Hogan, Reuters), Iran buys wheat at a frantic pace, and the vessels are queuing up to unload 396832 tons of grain. As the authors write, "Tehran manages to stock up on food to mitigate the influence of tough Western sanctions." The article points out a curious fact: “To weaken the impact of sanctions, Iran even began to buy wheat from its enemy, the United States.” Also, the authors report: "In most years, Iran is close to self-sufficiency in wheat, but needs to be imported with insufficient harvest, and this is what is expected this year."

Against this background, by the way, Saudi Arabia’s market prosperity is noted: Matthew Robinson and Jonathan Saul (“Reuters”) write about this Chicago Tribune from 16 March. Saudi Arabia, as reported by journalists, is participating in the “price race” and is expanding US oil sales. Kingdom shipments "rose 25 percent to the highest level since the middle of the 2008 year, according to preliminary data from the US government ..." Thus, Saudi Arabia is trying to compensate for the volume of oil that the world market will lose due to the application of sanctions against Iran.

The political outcome - "last chance" - described Kommersant (article by V. Solovyov):

“Speaking about the likelihood of a strike by Israel and the United States on Iran, diplomats, including Russian, now instead of the indefinite“ if ”use a specific“ when. ” “The invasion will happen before the end of the year,” a senior Russian Foreign Ministry official told Kommersant on the eve of a meeting of the UN Security Council. - Israelis, in fact, are blackmailing Obama. They put him in an interesting position: either he will support the war, or he himself will lose support (of the influential Jewish lobby. - “Kommersant”) ”.

After the Security Council meeting, the diplomat narrowed the time frame. According to him, in April there will be a meeting of representatives of Iran and the six mediators to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue (Russia, Great Britain, Germany, China, the USA and France), and the Americans insist that this is the last chance for Tehran. This is the position, said the source "b", in negotiations with Sergei Lavrov, designated Hillary Clinton. At the same time, she asked her Russian counterpart to convey this idea to the Iranian authorities, with whom Washington itself does not maintain relations. ”

By the way, Barack Obama at a joint press conference with British Prime Minister David Cameron in the White House said: “We will do everything possible to resolve the issue by diplomatic means, but in the end we need someone on the other side of the table, I took it all seriously, and I hope the Iranian regime understands this ”(Русская служба BBC).

Representative of the US State Department for Iran Alan Eyre, participating in the State Department’s online session, said: “So far, Iran has argued that its nuclear program is peaceful, but if so, why does Iran not cooperate with the IAEA? The sanctions target is the Iranian government, but Iranian citizens are also feeling their influence. We have no other choice ”("Messenger of the Caucasus").

Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon 17 of March said: “With the worst case scenario, Iran could use nuclear weapons” (Interfax). (With a reservation: in the case of access to the latter).

A day earlier, 16 March, Interfax conveyed from Tehran that "Iran is ready to let in the country international observers who will work in the country on a permanent basis, in exchange for the cooperation of Western states in the development of Tehran’s peaceful nuclear program." As the news agency reported, Mohammad Javad Larijani, foreign affairs advisor to the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told 16 in March. Quote: “The adviser to the Ayatollah noted that Iran hopes for cooperation with Western states and that they will sell uranium enriched up to 20% to Tehran”. However, a similar story has already taken place: “Iran was twice offered to enrich uranium abroad, but for a long time the authorities did not agree to this. Finally, in May 2010, Iran agreed to export low-enriched uranium for further enrichment in Brazil and Turkey. However, the Iranian authorities demanded that foreign specialists process uranium faster than possible ”( report).

Israeli News from 17 March 2012 on the subject of new Iranian concessions write the following:

“Larijani did not promise to abandon his own uranium enrichment program, but offered the West to sell uranium enriched up to 20% to Iran for nuclear reactors. As Arutz Sheva notes, this proposal makes sense only in the context of stopping the Iranian nuclear centrifuges - in case of termination of uranium enrichment on its territory, Iran will need to import fuel for nuclear power plants.

The tightening of economic sanctions hurts Iran, and recent polls indicate a decline in the popularity of nuclear research among the Iranian population, notes Atlantic. If in the 2010 year, 87% of the interviewed Iranians supported the development of peaceful nuclear research, then in February, 2011 of the year only 57% of the country's inhabitants declared their support for the domestic “peaceful atom”.

According to the newspaper "Sight", the citizens of America changed their attitude towards the beginning of the war with Iran: "According to polls, more than half of Americans are ready to support aggression against the Islamic state, and most of them would prefer that the Israelis deal a blow on Iran."

However, not everything is so clear about American polls: “Most Americans do not support a possible force scenario against Iran, believing that the United States should be neutral and continue diplomatic pressure, according to a poll released by the independent organization World Opinion and the University of Maryland . ... 69% of respondents believe that the United States, along with its allies, should continue diplomatic pressure on Tehran, so that it abandons its nuclear programs. Even among the supporters of the Republican Party, the majority - 58% - opposes US participation in military conflict. In the event that Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities, 49% believe that the United States should be neutral, while 25% are confident that Washington should in this case provide military assistance to Tel Aviv ”(Kommersant).

In M. Zavadskaya’s article “Iran considers itself stronger than all”, published on March 16 on 2012. "Arutz Sheva" ( quoted the words of the spokesman for President Ali Akbar Javanfekr, said last during a speech in the Lebanese Maran al-Rasa: “The Zionist regime is too weak to carry out its military threats against the Islamic Republic. Iran is not afraid of any enemies, including the occupying forces of the Zionist regime. " “... the consequences of any attack against Iran will not be limited to a blow to the Zionist regime. Washington officials are well aware that the United States and its allies will feel the brunt of Iran’s wrath. ”

A short quote from the newspaper "Sight": “Iran will respond in full force if Israel decides to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, this will mean the end of Israel, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said in an interview with the Danish TV channel TV2 on Thursday.”

Larijani, mentioned above, when giving an interview to CNN, “stressed that in the event of an Israeli or US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, the country's armed forces would be able to respond to the offenders.” “All opportunities are open to us,” explained Khamenei’s advisor. (Source: "Our cafe").

In addition, on the eve of March 15, “Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran Ali Akbar Salehi said that Iran will continue to finance the Palestinian movement Hamas. In the framework of the meeting in Tehran with the representative of the leadership of the Palestinian movement, Mahmoud Al-Zahar, who is responsible for organizing external relations, the head of the foreign ministry of the republic made his promise (”Federal Press). This is, of course, the very support of the Palestinians, which Israel does not like.

In the appendage more quote from Red Star (The author of the article is A. Orlovich): “... the president of this country, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has repeatedly stated that“ Iran has very serious military capabilities, which differ from those of other countries in the region. Iran will respond to any aggressor, including the United States, and they fear our potential. We will not allow any military action against ourselves. " The same determination is demonstrated by other official representatives of Iran. So, the other day, the Minister of Defense of the Islamic Republic, Ahmad Vahidi, stressed, commenting on the buildup of American military power in the Persian Gulf zone, that the country did not fully disclose its combat capabilities. “Iran has a lot of strength, which, as they say, is pribozheny on a rainy day,” he said. And he added that in the event of such a day, "the United States will face a completely new situation." (Orlovich’s article, by the way, provides a detailed description of the Iranian Armed Forces and describes the “asymmetric war” built on the principles of high motivation, high-quality training of military personnel, and the implementation of “retaliation” by suicide bombers. desalination complexes supplying freshwater 90 to the percent of the population of the Persian Gulf water area. As a result, the region will die of thirst. What no one in the capitals of monarchies doubts. ”So ends article A. Orlovich).

In general, Iran seems to hint: do not iron the kitten against the fur - it will release the claws.

On the subject of a possible military confrontation between Iran and Israel, various television jokes have already appeared about how the two conflicting parties behave. About this tells a note in the newspaper Washington Post from 17 March (with reference to the "Associated Press"). An example of one such joke: "... Israel will not deliver an air strike, because the prices of fighter fuel are too high." Under the jokes, as it is noticed, quite real fears lurk. This post is about the “Last Day” video clip recently posted on YouTube. This "five-minute clip, which scored hundreds of thousands of hits on YouTube, is a realistic film about the end of the world, showing the day after the Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities."

The aggravation of relations between Iran and Israel, which reached military threats, was probably promoted by memorable harsh statements by the Iranian president, which are still in the press to this day. Quote from Jewish newspaper for December 2005 of the year (author of the article is K. Zubkov):

“As the leader of the Iranian Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini, said, Israel needs to be erased from the world map. God wants that. And with God's help, we will soon see a world in which there will be no United States and Zionism! Anyone who recognizes Israel will burn in the fire of Islamic wrath. ” This emotional speech was delivered by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at the opening of the scientific conference “A World Without Zionism”, held within the walls of the Iranian Ministry of Internal Affairs. The Islamic Republican News Agency (the only media in Iran that is allowed to quote senior executives) claims that the president’s words were widely accepted among Tehran students and scholars. ” Iranian ambassadors in European countries attempted to soften the meaning of the words of their president by emphasizing the political engagement of interpretations, but “all the efforts of Iranian and Russian diplomats to smooth out the effect of Ahmadinejad’s speeches were crossed out by him. Speaking at a rally on the occasion of the “Day of Solidarity with the People of Palestine,” the Iranian president said: “I said what I wanted to say. My words are the words of the entire Iranian people. In the West, they can comment on my words as they please, but their reaction means nothing. ” Immediately after this, the ambassadors of Iran to the United Kingdom, France and Germany, who could not really communicate with the heads of the European foreign affairs agencies, were removed from their posts and recalled to their homeland ”(the same source,

Now, after the launch of the SWIFT sanctions, Larijani, an adviser to the Ayatollah, "assured that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that" Israel will be erased from the map "," of course, there was no military sense ", " (a source: Israeli News from 17 March).

Obviously, Larijani is not afraid of dismissal.

Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
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