"Peacemaking casus belli" for stripping LDNR from the APU. The rattling of the "Three Hundreds" at the Crimean border: Kiev is again experiencing fate!
An incredibly large amount of “dirt” and criticism in the last week was directed towards the draft resolution on placing peacekeepers on the contact line in the Donbass, which Moscow submitted to the UN Security Council 5 September 2017. Thus, in the half-million community "Reports from the militia of Novorossia" about a dozen war correspondents and front-line journalists from Donbass managed to christen the draft resolution "full discharge of the" Novorossiya "project from Moscow, which supposedly should stop the" sanction shaft "launched by Washington. Those who criticize, like all of us, residents of Donbass, can be easily understood: after all, after the referendum on self-determination of LDNR held in May on 11 in May, we received: a three-year conflict with many thousands of losses without liberation of the occupied Armed Forces of Ukraine left at the mercy of Ukraine for Mariupol and a number of Donbas cities, as well as the constant observance of criminal "Minsk agreements" without permission for a proper counter-battery "otvetku" and local displacement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to Kurakhovo or Krasnoarmeysk, which entails more and more losses among the regular population due to regular shelling.
Against this background, the resolution on the appearance in Donbas of a peacekeeping contingent, announced by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and "conducted" by the newly elected Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzi, at first glance, is associated with the process of "freezing" the conflict in the established boundaries from Shyrokino to Stanitsa Luganskaya, being a mad irritant for the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics. Some “sofa” analysts have already managed to sow real panic, noting in their short notes that the staff of the Defense Ministry of the DPR collect all the “critical” documentation and “their belongings”, and then plan to “push off” in the Russian direction, leaving the republic unarmed in front of Ukrainian armored " boned. " The recent telephone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel finally “blew up” the situation, where the Russian leader confirmed his readiness to update the draft resolution (on the deployment of the peacekeeping contingent in Donbas) with a clause providing permission for the movement of armed UN peacekeepers in all regions of the republics who "Inspects" the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission. For a lot of short-sighted "experts" -panikers, this event was the reason for the publication of analytical notes about "the future hit of the LDNR under Ukrainian control, the stripping of everything Russian, etc.". Meanwhile, if this opinion deserves attention, it is only minimal. Why?
First, the main criterion for introducing a peacekeeping contingent is the “mirror” withdrawal of large-caliber artillery from the line of contact. At the moment, this is akin to a science fiction novel: daily, Ukrainian artillery fire several hundred mortar and artillery shells from 82 to 152 mm caliber across the territory of the republics, and the attempt to withdraw heavy weapons of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of Stanitsa Lugansk repeatedly fails (and there have been such attempts already a few dozen). Moreover, over the past week, the Armed Forces of Ukraine began active transfer to the contact line of additional armored units, as well as tactical and reconnaissance aviation, which will be discussed below.
Secondly, the leadership of the republics is hardly satisfied with the fact that OSCE SMM officers repeatedly “spotted” on the transfer of coordinates of NM LDNR military facilities to Ukrainians will be accompanied by paramilitary peacekeeping units from Belgium, France, Germany, etc. The only format of the peacekeeping contingent, under which Donetsk and Lugansk will sign, is provided by its Russian majority. And now let's imagine a fantastic scenario, in accordance with which the Ukrainian side nevertheless agrees to withdraw large-scale cannon and rocket artillery from the contact line, after which the “watching” OSCE employees begin to be accompanied everywhere by the armed forces of the multinational UN peacekeeping force. Many may say for hours that this inevitable "freeze" for several decades. At the same time, this opinion looks excessively one-sided, especially against the background of modern stories military conflicts of the XXI century, where the August "South Ossetian precedent" 2008 of the year.
Then one of the main "casus belli" to conduct an operation to force Georgia to peace ("Five-Day War") by forces of the 58 Army of the North Caucasus Military District, 76 Guards Air Assault Division, the Air Force and Navy of Russia, as well as the Abkhaz and South Ossetian militias , was both an attempt to carry out an offensive operation with the subsequent seizure of the territory of South Ossetia, and a direct attack on the Russian peacekeeping contingent deployed at 2-x military bases (in the “upper town in Shanghai” and in the central fortified area of Tskhinval, where The commander of the peacekeeping contingent, General Marat Kulakhmetov, was appointed.
It is not a secret that the Ukrainian side will sooner or later go on the “path of aggression”, regardless of the deployment of peacekeeping forces in the Donbas, because almost all similar conflicts often have only military resolution, especially when a pro-Western puppet is in power zombie population of the country. In this case, Russia is quite capable of “playing” bypassing the UN procured by the west and “adapting” the “South Ossetian precedent” to Novorossia to calm the Kiev regime. In the Donbass, such a military-political move will take place much faster than in South Ossetia, since the current Kiev “top” is an order of magnitude greater than the entourage of former Georgian President Saakashvili.
Again, it’s worth repeating that all sorts of thoughts about the deployment of the UN contingent in the Donbass today look like a circus performance comparable in scale to “du Soleil”, because everyone can clearly see that against the background of additional military assistance from the USA, including lethal weapons, about any assignment of heavy weapons is out of the question. On the contrary, we see the concentration of additional artillery batteries in the most important Donetsk and Mariupol operational directions. In particular, according to the statement of the deputy commander of the operational command of the DPR NM, Eduard Basurin, over the past 3 days, 2 arrived in the vicinity of Krasnogorovka tank APU companies consisting of 20 main battle tanks and a platoon of British mercenaries of 30 to 45 troops.
According to updated data, the British entered the special purpose battalion 46, which openly indicates the preparation of a local assault "throw" of Ukrainian formations in the direction of Staromikhailovka, or the Kirov district of Donetsk, located separately from the main Donetsk fortified area. This prospect looks even more alarming against the background of the so-called “school truce”, under which the command of the People’s Militia of the DPR prohibits counter-battery fire on the enemy. What do we have from the operational-tactical point of view? Both Staromikhailovka and Petrovsky district of Donetsk, in fact, are partially separate enclaves-fortified areas of NM DPR, nominated 8-15 km west of the main part of Donetsk-Makeevka agglomeration. From the western, southern and northern OH, these militia enclaves are surrounded by numerous and “to the teeth” armed Ukrainian militants that are part of the 92 of the separate mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In the course of the coming massed shelling of Donetsk, part of the 92-th OMBR, with the support of the newly arrived 2-tank, it is quite capable of pushing the units of NM DNR from the above enclaves. In order to prevent the arrival of reinforcements of the DPR NM in these Donetsk environs, the Ukrainians may well arrange a long-term artillery bombardment of the main transport "arteries" - st. Petrovsky and st. Kirov, as well as other small transport interchanges in the area. It is quite logical that the British soldiers who received appropriate training according to NATO standards will be in charge of the Ukrainians in this action. If in this case “otvetka” on the part of the Donetsk artillerymen will be banned, one can expect extremely unpleasant results with far-reaching consequences. It remains to hope only that the summer 2-3-kilometer pushing aside Ukrainian militants in the Krasnogorovka area was not useless, and in the new positions the militiamen received all the necessary small arms, anti-tank and artillery weapons.
In the New Azov and Telman directions, intrigue is still preserved. So far, most of the barely knowledgeable Ukrainian population continues to skillfully ram up with a breakthrough of the war criminal Saakashvili across the border, who, according to the statement of the director of the communications department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Artyom Shevchenko, is not going to detain, significant arsenals of large caliber shells are being pulled into the front Mariupol to launch a new round escalation, regardless of all sorts of "peacemaking proposals."
The transfer of arsenals to the New Azov ON (Mariupol)
Video materials coming from residents of Mariupol and its environs indicate that in recent weeks along the highways “Berdyansk-Mariupol”, “Zaporozhye-Mariupol” and “Volnovakha-Mariupol”, several dozen KrAZ trucks were delivered to the city, "MAZ", etc. With hundreds of tons of different shots, here are the prerequisites for observing the cease-fire regime, as well as preparing for the introduction of a peacekeeping mission. The surroundings of the Gnutovo settlement (in 7 km northeast of Mariupol) continue to be saturated with artillery batteries of the Gvozdika SAU 2C1, one of which arrived in the area last week. This may indicate upcoming artillery preparation in the villages of Krasnoarmeyskoye, Primorskoye and Lukovo, the ultimate goal of which is to weaken the defensive capabilities of the 1-AK AK NM DPR in the Telman direction.
It is worth noting that the attack on this sector will be carried out not only by “Sector M” (Mariupol), but also by Volnovakhi, where 7 has long been present - 8 is the thousandth group of Ukrainian troops. Kiev is preparing for a new slaughter on a very large scale. So, both tactical and reconnaissance aircraft, which slowly but surely increase their presence on Avb Kramatorsk, will be used. Its constant has long been the improved Ukrainian reconnaissance / air command center of the An-26РТ type, which is hardware-tuned for the 3-5-hour tactical radio support in the UHF / VHF bands between units of the Armed Forces that are outside the limits of the radio horizon. The destruction of this side should be the task “No.1” for the calculations of the Igla MANPADS and the Osa-AK air defense missile system of the LDNR People’s Militia. It is becoming increasingly clear that a month before the expiration of the law “On the Special Status of Donbass” (October 18 2017) and a few days before the adoption of the so-called “Donbass Reintegration” bill, Kiev plans to make very unexpected adjustments for everyone in the future. Republics of New Russia, and not only her ...
The transfer of equipment to the APU on the Crimean HE
Politician and public figure Alexei Zhuravko continues to collect and publish video information about all movements of Ukrainian military formations in the Kherson and Nikolaev regions. In particular, in recent days alone, more than a hundred Ukrainian Kung fueled with various types of shots, spare parts and special equipment have advanced in the direction of the border with the Republic of Crimea. There was also a strange redeployment of the 30H6E radar for illumination and targeting from a single 5P85C launcher, which are part of the ZRDN C-300PS, the purpose of which is not yet clear. This clearly does not promise anything good, and therefore the idea of the “Great New Russia” does not leave us for a minute.
Information sources:
http://www.mk.ru/politics/2017/08/06/neobyavlennaya-voyna-kak-gruziya-ustroila-rossiyskim-mirotvorcam-osetinskiy-stalingrad.html
https://www.donetsk.kp.ru/online/news/2865111/
https://dnr24.com/main/28063-vsu-perebrosili-v-donbass-transportno-boevye-vertolety-i-samolet-razvedki-an-30.html
Information