American military expert on DPRK rockets: Interception is as complex as flying to the moon

On the air of the American television channel FOX News, they wondered what the Japanese and South Koreans were asking from the very day when the North Korean rocket flew over Japan and fell uncontrollably (from the air defense-missile defense systems) into the ocean. On this occasion, argues military expert Ralph Peters - a retired US Army lieutenant colonel.

Peters' explanations looked more like excuses for the inaction of the missile defense system, which, when deployed in the region, was positioned precisely as a "reliable shield against North Korean missiles."

InoTV leads the translation of "explanations" Peters:

Yes, we do not knock them (missiles) for a number of reasons. First, it is best to estimate the military potential when the rocket enters the dense atmosphere, that is, it is in the latter before the descent stage. At this stage, rockets often break, and we can estimate how poorly they are designed. In addition, the interception of North Korean missiles, of course, would cost us a lot of money.

Then Peters unexpectedly switches to the fact that if the American anti-missile miss suddenly misses, then this would be an additional trump card for Kim Jong-un.

Ralph Peters:

In fact, the principle of intercepting a rocket is similar to the principle of “intercepting” a bullet by a bullet. For us, this is as difficult as for NASA to launch a rocket to the moon.

The American military expert summed up, stating that "Washington does not want to inspire Kim and at the same time he does not know whether he can even intercept all the missiles fired from DPRK ranges."

Comments

[rotmistr60]

interception of North Korean missiles, of course, would cost us a lot of money. For us it is as difficult as for NASA to launch a rocket to the moon.

Information for consideration for Japan and South Korea - is it worth spending a lot of money on the American missile defense or not? In both cases, the hope is only on the American "maybe". Only in the second case will you stay with your money.

[neri73-r]

Quote: rotmistr60

Information for consideration for Japan and South Korea - is it worth spending a lot of money on the American missile defense or not? In both cases, the hope is only on the American "maybe". Only in the second case will you stay with your money.

And who would ask them ....! They said it is necessary to put-buy and will buy !!! A vassal, a slave, an aborigine cannot choose, he only does what his master said! And it does not matter in what form (democracy, elections, tolerance, etc.) it is exposed.

[Vladimir16]

For us it is as difficult as for NASA to launch a rocket to the moon.

In short - neither the first nor the second is possible at this evolutionary stage in the development of mattresses.

[Fei_Wong]

By the way, the theory of the "moon conspiracy" is still open. There are too many inconsistencies in this matter. They both loved the lunar soil (or rather, “we have it, but it’s so secret that we won’t show it to you”), and the NASA cleaner threw the notes in the trash, and “Saturn-5” worked out the moment, and then forgot how to and now they can’t even repeat anything close, buying from us an RD-180, and in general, there’s still a bunch, a bunch of everything ... strange.

[north]

Yes, the darkest thing, especially on the engines. So they were and suddenly did not, from the word at all.

[Fei_Wong]

What is most surprising - Saturn 5 had 13 launches and they were ALL successful! Where is our legendary Korolevskaya R-7, which had an accident in the first place ... That is right after World War II Brown right away, with FAU-2, without any intermediate, unsuccessful models, riveted Saturn-5 amers not, well, there was an experimental Saturn-1, of course, but this is a separate conversation. 100% reliableall launches, I recall, are recognized as successful). the Americans flew to the moon - and that’s how it was cut off. For half a century they haven’t been flying, and somehow they suddenly forgot how to do Saturn-5.

[north]

I rummaged in the internet about the engines, found a whole scientific article. Our somewhere at the bottom, picked up the remnants of the first-stage engine, and determined that he was not able to bring the rocket to a given height. In short, it turns out that the rocket took off, the onlooker hid from his eyes, and then into the ocean. Naturally without a crew.

[Kasym]

And immediately the following fact occurred to me. If they don’t know whether Korean missiles will be intercepted or not, then what can we say about the latest Russian developments with a change in the flight path. Their much-praised missile defense system, which is relatively close to the launch site, does not have a high probability of interception - what can we say for a country with the largest territory !?
Can Seoul and Tokyo better work with Israel on the Iron Dome issue? They have small territories, countries are not poor. I think it will be so. Maybe they should work on the issue of electronic warfare systems against Grad missiles. Here the Russian leader.
"Cool" as they are from Una "sausages." And Trump "back" to include from a small DPRK and his young leader without a hand. It is unlikely that there will be a big war, based on the fact that nearby, in the west, are the large army of China and the best land army of the world in the north.

[Fei_Wong]

Nothing saves them from Eun. They themselves know that they have nothing to fear from the DPRK, unless they finally drive the rat into a corner. In the meantime, with all this hysteria sauce, they are successfully pushing the deployment of their missile defense systems in South Korea. And the true purpose of this placement is not counteracting the DPRK, but China and Russia.
Or, do you think, in Poland (and already in Romania, and elsewhere) are the Patriots and other missile defense systems set up purely for the safety of Europe from Iranian missiles? Especially considering that the universal launcher Mk is used. 41, into which, if necessary, you can instantly shove offensive Tomahawks with a nuclear warhead?

[Captain Pushkin]

Quote: Kasym

Maybe they should work on the issue of electronic warfare systems against Grad missiles.

EW against an unguided missile?
Enchanting!
Dare, if successful, the Nobel Prize is guaranteed. From one to five pieces at once.

[Fei_Wong]

Quote: Captain Pushkin

EW against an unguided missile?
Enchanting!
Dare, if successful, the Nobel Prize is guaranteed. From one to five pieces at once.

You are laughing in vain. Google the "Mercury" complex.

Now everywhere, even in NURSs, there are always radio fuses. So, they can be undermined by electronic warfare.

[Mimoprohodil]

A very small area is covered (50 hectares), cities can not be covered with them. Now everywhere there are mechanical fuses.

Equipment

9M28F
- head part 9N55
- mechanical fuse MRV-U (9E244) or radio fuse AR-6 (9E328)
- 9M28 missile unit with 9X168 powder charge

9M28F-1
- head part 9N55
- mechanical fuse MRV-U (9E244) or radio fuse AR-6 (9E328)
- missile part 9M28-1 with a powder charge of 9X168M

[Fei_Wong]

Well, the Armed Forces (and other things), most likely, only those with a mechanical fuse remained (and why not decommunize the damned legacy of the ugly USSR?). And in all MODERN armies of the world for a long time only radio fuses have been used. For they are much more effective.

A very small area is covered (50 hectares), cities can not be covered with them.

If you carefully looked at the video card that I threw, you would understand that the task of "Mercury" is NOT a cover for cities, but a cover their military groups. "Mercury" was created just for this.

[Mimoprohodil]

Here is the new 9M522 projectile from Tornado-G 301V electronic-mechanical remote-contact fuse. Hurricane and Tornado have no radio fuses at all

[Fei_Wong]

It is wonderful.
That's just the "Mercury" was made primarily against the Western "partners", I won’t. And they, everywhere you spit - everywhere fuses. And Tornado-G is definitely not.

[ssergn]

In in. What nah reb against iron bolvpnki.

[Fei_Wong]

Such.
In any MODERN iron disc there is a radio fuse. Does the word "RADIO" hint at something? For example, on Radio electronic warfare (EW)?

[Sirocco]

Quote: Kasym

If they don’t know whether Korean missiles will be intercepted or not, then what can we say about the latest Russian developments with a change in the flight path.

Let's not underestimate the adversary, maybe the whole thing is that the United States knew about the launch, the trajectory, etc., and did not reveal their capabilities, as ours saw during our attack by the Americans on the Tamagawks of Syria, and silently watched, not giving out their frequencies, and other secrets of our air defense in Syria. So could the adversaries. Afraid of the fact that ours will read their system.

[Kasym]

Vladimir, I agree with you - by the way, I also assumed this and spoke out at the Military District regarding the work of the air defense of the RF Armed Forces in Syria. But the fact is that it was the States that threatened to destroy Eun missiles. We drove the fleet and deployed a missile defense system in Korea ... and all this happened in the sand for the same Koreans and Japanese. Indeed, in their eyes, these bases with the Air Force, Missile Defense and the US Navy somehow "lost face." Especially if they knew about the launch (probably they saw work from the satellite). So on the scales was the prestige of the United States. The Russian Federation in Syria did not threaten to bring down, but only indicated the presence from which the Turks were blown away, while others began to "coordinate actions".
If you read about Japan, Korea or China. For example, D. Clavella is thin. works, you will understand how, in the eyes of the local Yankees (overseas barbarians, devils, uncivilized, haijin - that’s what they call them) "lost face."

[Lord of the Sith]

In other words, he stated: “It’s as impossible as flying to the moon.”

And this despite the fact that on North Korean missiles there are no maneuvering blades, they launched it and it flies like a shell without changing the trajectory.

Unlike the Russian Bulava missile, which has four combat warheads that change their trajectory in height and direction every 45 seconds. It also has ten false warheads and electronic warfare systems.

[voyaka uh]

"every 45 seconds they change the trajectory in height and direction" ///:

Every 45 seconds? Then the missile defense computer will easily calculate their trajectory, no matter how you change it.
After all, the end point (object of attack) is still known. Any changes have an algorithm. And any algorithm miscalculates ahead.

[zarya]

Quote: voyaka uh

Any changes have an algorithm. And any algorithm miscalculates ahead.

But what about random numbers?

[Tda tar]

Do not compose! No “reflection” is even supposed here. For in the USA - in general, everything is exclusively and only “for the sake of money” (to understand this, read About Henry, Mark Twain). And they simply will not allow any of their vassals to refuse to pay for their weapons or services. With such an attempt, they will trivially unleash a war in the “refusing country”.

[Sergerius]

And to hell with them, the main thing is antlers, and the more the better, otherwise it’s expensive and for research purposes, on-duty phrases from an “expert”

[Diana Ilyina]

Well done "expert" ... I immediately remembered the film "Moscow does not believe in tears": "Gosh, with such analytical skills you need to work in the forecast bureau ..."

[bouncyhunter]

This mattress is soul-twisting: in fact, he meant that the interception of the Una rocket would result in an amount exceeding the cost of Hollywood filming a "flight to the moon."

[Diana Ilyina]

Pash, I’m certainly not a great weapons specialist, but judging by the information that I read, in order to bring down one Un rocket they would need to launch a dozen missile defense systems and the result would be 50 to 50. I imagine the reaction around the world if all the same it would not be possible to bring down the rocket ... Especially those countries that are armed with mattresses "Patriots" ... Now that would be a zrada so zrada. I suspect that it was for this reason that they did not try to bring her down!

[bouncyhunter]

That's right, the mattresses do not want the whole world to know which wunderwafel they are pushing him in.

[andrewkor]

During the turmoil in Vietnam, it was necessary to spend up to 10 S-75s on one downed American plane over the North, even U-2s were shot down near Sverdlovsk in a volley, and what to dream about ballistic missiles!

[Sirocco]

Quote: andrewkor

on one downed American plane over the North had to spend up to 10 S-75,

You can read more about these facts, but rather a link from where such information comes from. Pliiiz.

[Sanichsan]

good day to you!
I doubt very much that those who "buy" the American "Patriot" count on their effectiveness. this, in the course of it, is the usual cut of a dummy put on a stream. all consumers of Patriot are US vassals and they have no choice. how the missile defense system is very doubtful, but its shock capabilities are not advertised, and this is a completely different story ....
the truth with Eun is that the usual expectation that aggression can be stopped by the prospect of a retaliatory strike will not work. The United States has already recognized that it cannot even guarantee the destruction of ballistic missile positions, not to mention the artillery positions and the navy. that is, the United States seems to agree that they cannot protect their allies but do not want to advertise this.
this means that Un will safely continue its missile program and have arrived among the nuclear powers.

PS
and soon Iran will do the same. The United States will not lift the sanctions, and stubborn Arabs will begin to build ballistic missiles and enrich uranium or plutonium in the quiet. and then click with a beak when no one abides by the agreement, and the "world gendarme" is wrinkling in front of North Korea ...

[Olegovi4]

Quote: SanichSan

Iran will do the same. US will not lift sanctions, but stubborn Arabs

Persians are not Arabs

[Sanichsan]

sorry, yes :)

[Shahno]

I think so too. Good analyst. He substantiated the main thing in detail.

[may Day]

After such statements, the most logical is to give a good kick in the ass of the whole American fraternity, and not spend 5% of GDP on iron ..)

[may Day]

In fact, the United States does not have protection from the righteous revenge of North Korean workers, embodied in the sacred fury of powerful missiles, created under the sensitive guidance of beloved leader and commander Comrade Kim Jong-un. May the heavens burn from Guam to the Sea of ​​Okhotsk! The enslaved capital of the peoples of Japan, China and Russia welcome these swallows of freedom and prosperity, soared from Mount Pektusan!

From your fiery speech, I involuntarily, during the reading, switched to Korean .. Do you happen to write speeches for Un?)

[may Day]

With such masters of syllables and patriotic education as you, and also thanks to the unwavering will of the "Beloved Leader" - the people of the DPRK can sleep peacefully!

[Captain Pushkin]

Quote: SCRAPES, ISLAM and CHUCHKHE

pigs pick up life-giving juices on fat pastures,

Who is there anyway "typing" pigs or dogs?

[andrewkor]

And earlier, probably for Brezhnev, he croaked, in the best sense of this occupation!

[LiSiCyn]

Quote: SCRAPES, ISLAM and CHUCHKHE

welcome these swallows of freedom and prosperity, soaring from Mount Pektusan!

Are you driving ???

[LiSiCyn]

Bot?! .. Or you, so covered?

[NIKNN]

Firstly, it is best to assess the military potential when a missile enters the dense atmosphere, that is, it is in the last stage before the decline. At this stage, missiles often break, and we can evaluate how poorly designed they are.

However, this gives the Koreans the opportunity to fully test and missiles with warheads will not break ...

[andrewkor]

No, well, what a writer, and the style, and the enthusiasm, and the style, the classics nervously smoke aside!

[aszzz888]

The American military expert summed up by stating that “Washington does not want to inspire Kim and does not know will he be able to intercept all missiles fired from the DPRK landfills at all. "

... all praised air defense becomes a screen, a bubble ...

[CAT BAIYUN]

The bottom line: we do not intercept, because it is not able to. Anyway, pay little money.
Hence the question - why the hell did you get in there with your expensive pieces of iron? Pull over your puddle, striped!

[Sergey-8848]

In the Russian dictionary for Americans, the word "jumper"explained how skier in sweatshirt. Now it can be safely extended to the Pentagon command staff (active and in reserve).

[helmi8]

Firstly, it is best to assess the military potential when a missile enters the dense atmosphere, that is, it is in the last stage before the decline. At this stage, missiles often break, and we can evaluate how poorly designed they are.

Super! Top analytical analysis! You can send to competitions with dill "analysts" - who reanalyzes whom ...

[Alexey-74]

So tell Mr. Lieutenant Colonel just piss ........ those are afraid to screw up. To do gun advertising and show it all in Hollywood is one thing, and real fighting is another.

[3vs]

“In addition, intercepting North Korean missiles would certainly cost us a lot of money.”
This could be the end!
Japan already felt once, think, the second time inadvertently flies something,
there was a hunt to spend money on it ...

[Egorovich]

Most likely the mattresses signed their own impotence. It looks like they have a missile defense just for show. The main thing is to tear off more money from lop-eared partners for an imaginary missile defense.

[Yarik76]

Quote: Sergey-8848

In the Russian dictionary for Americans, the word "jumper"explained how skier in sweatshirt. Now it can be safely extended to the Pentagon command staff (active and in reserve).

About skiers pleased - five points!

[mashinist]

People who do not understand, remember how easily the Americans invaded Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya! And now it would be the same if Kim’s missiles could be accurately intercepted! They keep 100% of answers, and the only solution is to physically remove Kim, which is also not yet possible, so they rush around to break him, but the trump card in the form of a hwangsong interrupts all plans ...

[Old26]

Quote: SanichSan

and soon Iran will do the same. The United States will not lift the sanctions, and stubborn Arabs will begin to build ballistic missiles and enrich uranium or plutonium in the quiet. and then click with a beak when no one abides by the agreement, and the "world gendarme" is wrinkling in front of North Korea ...

Than the same? Build rockets? So if you haven’t been banned in the same “Google” or “Yandex” - hammer in the question “SHAHAB rocket.” And follow the links. You’ll learn a lot for yourself. About the fact that they’ll secretly enrich uranium or plutonium - read the terms of the transaction "1 + 6". especially in the section of centrifuges, their quantity, spent nuclear fuel, heavy water and everything else. What about plutonium enrichment - An urgent application to the Stockholm Nobel Prize Award Committee. I guarantee that you will get a dozen of them right away ....

Quote: 3vs

“In addition, intercepting North Korean missiles would certainly cost us a lot of money.”

In fact, this American expert is not far from the truth, and what he wrote in principle is reasonable. The cost of one missile type "Standard SM-3 Block-2A" - about 24 million. A minimum of 2 is released on a rocket. Only the cost of rockets will result in almost 50 million. Not counting that it was still necessary to drive the destroyer to a certain point, which also costs money.
If they used the GBI complex, then there the cost of one rocket is about 90 million. Therefore, in this case, the expert is right on the financial side. Spending that kind of money to intercept a missile going "nowhere" does not make sense. He is right about one more thing. This launch brought the Americans more benefits than if a rocket were shot down. Koreans FOR THE FIRST TIME launched their BRDS at maximum range. Prior to this, all launches passed along a high-altitude trajectory. Which of course gave the necessary information, but only launches to the maximum range allows you to "close" all issues, including and the behavior and design of the rocket and the behavior of warheads. To conclude on the basis of the fact that they didn’t shoot down, it means they did not know that the ABM drank it and all the rest is stupid. Let's see what the Americans will do at the next launch of a North Korean missile.
As for his statements that it is just as difficult as flying to the moon, this does not mean the expert’s great intelligence and objectivity. But there's nothing to be done. In our country, the higher the rank, the greater the blizzard is carried by experts.
interception in the missile defense system has always been difficult and creating an “Impenetrable” missile defense is impossible both technically and financially

[Olegovi4]

Quote: Old26

The cost of one missile type "Standard SM-3 Block-2A" - about 24 million. At least 2 on the rocket

what kind of money can we talk about when there is the possibility of combat work on a real threat to their territory (especially since the bird flew stupidly into the ocean) ?? !!

[Old26]

Quote: mashinist

People who do not understand, remember how easily the Americans invaded Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya! And now it would be the same if Kim’s missiles could be accurately intercepted! They keep 100% of answers, and the only solution is to physically remove Kim, which is also not yet possible, so they rush around to break him, but the trump card in the form of a hwangsong interrupts all plans ...

Well, it only invades first, and then destroys the enemy’s missile systems. Usually do exactly the opposite. First, they “roll out the country with missile and bomb attacks, and then proceed to the ground phase of the operation. And, I’m sorry, North Korea does not have so many such missiles. There is no trump card from Hwason.” The twelfth has so far been tested at a range of 2700. Whether it will fly to a range of 3500 - so far no one can say for sure (with a 100% guarantee) The intercontinental "Fourteenth" has not been tested to the maximum range either. So far, Korea can get America only in theory. And only practice will show that they can both North Koreans and Americans can do whether they can intercept some (IMHO they can), and whether others can "break through" the missile defense.
Of course, it’s better that this does not happen, but here nothing depends on us

[Eflintuk]

Amerikos turned on the fool - and then they try to comment on the couple ... :) They will shoot down on takeoff without any problems.

[Old26]

Quote: EFLINTuk

Amerikos turned on the fool - and then they try to comment on the couple ... :) They will shoot down on takeoff without any problems.

Well, he didn’t completely turn on the fool. As for what they will shoot down on take-off - probably yes. But for this it is necessary to fit a dozen missile defense ships to the coast

[afrikanez]

It seems the American air defense system is another nonsense, as well as the flight to the moon "talkers"

[Andrey123]

Che they rock the boat, if not able to shoot down the DPRK? Then the interception of Russian modern missiles for them, like a flight to the constellation Centaurus.

[Andrey123]

Quote: Andrey123

Che they rock the boat, if not able to shoot down the DPRK? Then the interception of Russian modern missiles for them, like a flight to the constellation Centaurus.

[Old26]

Quote: Andrey123

Che they rock the boat, if not able to shoot down the DPRK? Then the interception of Russian modern missiles for them, like a flight to the constellation Centaurus.

Are you sure you are not able to? Conclude based on the fact that THEY DIDN'T KILL her this time?

Quote: Diana Ilyina

Pash, I’m certainly not a great weapons specialist, but judging by the information that I read, in order to bring down one Un rocket they would need to launch a dozen missile defense systems and the result would be 50 to 50. I imagine the reaction around the world if all the same it would not be possible to bring down the rocket ... Especially those countries that are armed with mattresses "Patriots" ... Now that would be a zrada so zrada. I suspect that it was for this reason that they did not try to bring her down!

Well, to be honest, they lie in that "information !. Or what you read on the network from the Murzilok series
The number of missiles needed to destroy the same missile is calculated by the formula

n = log (1-Pn) / log (1-P1) Where, n - the number of interceptor missiles, Pn - the total probability of hitting the target, and P1 - the probability of hitting one missile.

If you need the probability of hitting a target 0,99, then with the probability of hitting a target with one missile in 0.9 (as for example, the SM-3 Standard missile), then substituting these data into the formula you will get that for a missile to be destroyed with a probability of 99% (0,99) necessary TOTAL TWO ROCKETS.

In the phrase you quoted - 10 missile defense and overall probability 0,5 (50 to 50) - the probability of hitting a target with one missile will be 0,07, i.e. total 7%. Sorry, but such anti-aircraft missiles, with such probability just DOES NOT EXIST

As for the reaction of those who are armed, as you write with the “mattress Patriots.” Even at the dawn of their use when shooting at ballistic targets (and they can only be hit by tactical and operational-tactical missiles), they struck with a probability of approximately 0,4-0,6 one interceptor missile, i.e. with a probability of 40-60%. During this time, the HCV "Patriot" RAS-2 has increased up to 80% Bonus terms and conditions apply one rocket, and RAS-3 - up to 90% Bonus terms and conditions apply. So the "zrada" will be exclusively on the "Internet" in the materials written by such specialists, of which you are talking about an article. In their heads will be "zrada"

Quote: Olegovi4

Quote: Old26

The cost of one missile type "Standard SM-3 Block-2A" - about 24 million. At least 2 on the rocket

what kind of money can we talk about when there is the possibility of combat work on a real threat to their territory (especially since the bird flew stupidly into the ocean) ?? !!

In this case, the interception is just HAD NO MEANING. For real, real data on this North Korean missile simply did not exist. Prior to this, all tests took place in completely different conditions. Here, the Americans simply "for nothing" received the real parameters of its flight. Which is much more important than interception in this particular case.

[Fkjydjckfrgh]

Quote: mashinist

People who do not understand, remember how easily the Americans invaded Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya! And now it would be the same if Kim’s missiles could be accurately intercepted! They keep 100% of answers, and the only solution is to physically remove Kim, which is also not yet possible, so they rush around to break him, but the trump card in the form of a hwangsong interrupts all plans ...

No one will attack the DPRK, Kim is convenient for the United States, he can be pulled out at any moment and frightened from the heart. We should not pay attention to this. All this fuss with the DPRK is for internal use by the US electorate. Better remember, Onizh Kimami scared everyone, even when they were "friends" with Iraq against Iran, and where is this Iraq now.

[raw174]

I think that our S-400s would not have been shot down ... After all, I have not heard about the successful combat (non-training) use of air defense systems against missiles ... Does anyone have information?

[raw174]

I believe that only electronic warfare systems can fight more or less effectively with missiles ...

[myrtle]

USA is a dark country, but it is very well miscalculated.