Recently, the situation in the world has heated up sharply. Just a few hours ago, the DPRK "surprised the world" by another missile launch. And the most interesting, not in the direction of Guam, but in the direction of the "continental" USA. True, along the way, rockets flew over the territory of Japan. Amazing reaction of Japan. The Japanese did not know that the Korean missiles, if they were launched in the direction of America, would fly over them! ..
I am sometimes blamed for links to my own articles. I almost quote myself! .. I will not write about my answer, but I don’t like to repeat myself, and the thoughts that became the basis for further discussion have already been set forth. It's hard for me to change my position. It is difficult for me to explain the same postulates over and over again. Why postulates? Yes, simply because, for certain reasons, I do not own all the fullness of information. And I draw conclusions on what I personally know.
Yesterday I wrote about potential targets in Europe. About potential victims in the event of a conflict. Naturally, the reaction was not long in coming. Especially from "European" readers. Indeed, it is scary to understand that your home is the goal ... Honestly, I did not plan to continue this topic. But the topic caught up with me. I caught up with reports of an interview with NATO Secretary General Jons Stoltenberg to the Polish edition of Rzeczpospolita.
I am far from thinking that in Europe they do not understand the deadlock of the situation. In essence, today we and NATO are doing what is necessary. In my reflections, I rely on those moments that threaten Russia. At times when our inaction can harm us, our citizens, our economy. Western analysts and experts proceed from the same principle.
Interview Stoltenberg - a wonderful confirmation. Some phrases for understanding this moment, I still highlight.
"The North Atlantic alliance does not want to aggravate relations with Russia. The West does not need a repetition of the Cold War and a new arms race." "NATO continues to actively strengthen its eastern flank. However, the deployment of multinational battalions in Poland and the Baltic countries is a proportionate response" to the actions of Russia, which "is expanding its military capabilities."
As you can see, the NATO Secretary General does not particularly bother to explain his position. In principle, like some of our experts and analysts. As in a children's quarrel. I hit him because he hit me. And I because he is me ... And the end or the beginning in this skirmish is impossible to find. Only "at stake" in this squabble is not a bruise or a bruise, but the lives of hundreds of thousands of civilians in Europe. Russian, Polish, German, Moldavian, Ukrainian ... All Europeans!
But there are some moments in the interview that you should pay attention to, first of all, our foreign opponents.
"Russia must understand that these are consequences of violating international law. Therefore, we support sanctions, therefore we have suspended cooperation, therefore we are strengthening our defense capability. But we don’t want a repetition of the Cold War and open confrontation. Russia will remain our biggest neighbor, and that is why we should conduct a political dialogue with her. "
So let's talk, but will we continue the preparations for the war? At least that's how I perceive these words. May, of course, mistaken. But, too often and too much, we believed in words. And too often we were then hurt for our faith. We were promised that, we were promised this ... And in the end? Where are these promises? We know very well even those "excuses" of NATO officials who will be after. "This is not a bloc did. This is a private initiative of a sovereign state! .. They have the right, we have a democracy" ...
And how do you like this pearl?
“The military bloc is called upon to perform a deterrent function. Currently, it has to“ adapt to new risks, ”which include not only a direct combat threat, but also cyber attacks and a hybrid war. NATO is making efforts to meet these challenges, therefore sends its battalions to the countries bordering on Russia. There is no aggression in this. "To compare 4 thousand soldiers from NATO combat groups and 100 thousand Russians on the other side of the border is a mistake."
It turns out that the emergence of NATO at our borders is no more than a response to our aggression! Aggression toward whom? Variants of explanations "Ukrainian events" do not pass. NATO crawled to our borders and without war in the Donbass. Crawled up exactly with the explanations that I mentioned above. This is the sovereign will of the people ... And Yugoslavia "was smashed" into pieces by the "sovereign will of the people" ... And Georgia attacked South Ossetia by the same "sovereign will" ... And Moldova staged a massacre in Transnistria by "the sovereign will of the people "...
And as for the correlation of forces ... Mr. Stoltenberg distorts him. Many analysts, including myself, wrote about the opportunities that NATO had in connection with the deployment of battalions in Eastern Europe. And they wrote about the stores of heavy military equipment. Moreover, on the basis of an analysis of the situation, even the timelines for the deployment of divisions in "problem countries" were identified. Stoltenberg, probably meant "active defense"? When do defenders come?
And remember that today makes the West knock their knees? Well, of course, the Russian-Belarusian teachings "West-2017"! Time goes fast. The teachings of the countries, members of the block have already passed in a multitude. And September is "at the door" ... Russia and Belarus, as if nothing had happened, are preparing for the teachings. Russian subunits have already appeared on the landfills. Headquarters are working.
How many Western politicians "expressed concern" about these teachings? How many tubs of mud were poured on Russian and Belarusian politicians and military? .. What kind of idiotic assumptions have been made. "Military Review" and wrote about it. So what?
Alexander Lukashenko, in response, delivered a “blow” to all this camarilla (forgive me, the Spaniards for using this term). No, Alexander G. did not stoop to a dialogue with these politicians. He clearly follows the age-proven saying: every cricket know your hearth. It’s not good for the president to enter into a discussion with ... He just ... invited Western observers to visit the teachings!
Do you think that everything, talk about the closeness of the teachings stopped? How so! The Secretary General made a clumsy attempt to get out of this situation.
“The Alliance received invitations from Moscow and Minsk to attend this event. But Brussels has not yet made a final decision on the participation.” "I emphasize that this is an invitation for a so-called visit, and not for observation in accordance with international rules arising from the so-called Vienna Document signed within the OSCE."
Do you know who this statement is for? On the average man, including Russian. Alas, overwhelmingly, people are not inclined to read, or at least become familiar with, primary sources. In an age when it is not difficult to do it. I'm talking about the Vienna document. After all, Mr. Secretary is lying. He is lying, albeit a general one ... Everything in the Viennese document is clearly indicated, including the number of participants in the exercises, which require the admission of foreign observers.
"We urge Russia to comply with this agreement, which should ensure predictability and transparency. It is necessary, because we have more and more exercises close to each other, we must avoid accidents, incidents, misunderstandings. And even if it comes to them, we should be sure that they will not be out of control. "
How long have you understood this? And if you understand, why not return to the former format of the relationship? Why can't the military independently, through their own channels, promptly solve incidents that arise more and more often? Why do weekly media reports about aircraft interceptions over neutral territory? And often with demonstrative violations? Is Russia giving up contact? Is the Russian military unwilling to talk to NATO?
I think it is difficult to understand the logic of the secretary general of the “defensive alliance”. And the situation today is such that in NATO itself no one clearly understands what will happen tomorrow. In a country that "girl is having dinner," a mess. The President "fights" with the Congress. The "Left" are fighting with the "Right." White with black. Yes, and the constant "show" with American warriors in various parts of the world. It is difficult to follow such a ship in the fairway. And you can not step aside. American money is mainly in the budget of the alliance.
Not without "calming down" the Baltic and Polish inhabitants. Sleep well, dear! The Alliance will save you, you are always under the protection of democracy!
"The decision to deploy NATO multinational battalions in the Baltic countries and Poland was taken at the Alliance summit in Warsaw last July. Each of these combat groups is about 1 thousands of people. To date, combat groups in Poland, Lithuania and Estonia have reached operational readiness and in Lithuania it will happen in the next few days. "
The interview with the NATO Secretary General is quite revealing. The inconsistency of some provisions is simply impressive. And the distortion of facts is amazing. However, this tactic of negotiation is not new for us. This is a well-established scheme. You can always say everything justifying phrase. "And let's forget. It happened and it should be taken today as a fact. Let's start with a clean slate!"
I, in principle, have nothing against this approach. When I was in school, I used exactly this tactic. If something appeared in the notebook that threatened me with a physical impact on some parts of the body, the notebook immediately disappeared for a known reason: "It is over." And I started a new notebook. From scratch.
But aren't there many such "notebooks" with "threats of physical influence" hidden here? Is it too often we start with a clean slate? After all, if you go back to my school years, a notebook is a notebook, and the grade in the journal still stood. And the "physical impact" was simply transferred to the next parent meeting ... The position of the ostrich with its head in the sand leads to the loss of ... feathers from the ostrich ass. As Soviet multipliers showed in a film about wings, legs and tail ...
The world continues to shudder the policy of the American "showman". The world is hard, but so far peacefully, changing. For Russia, these changes are quite normal. Most readers have already forgotten about the era of stability. Part of this era does not know. Born and raised in a "state of permanent earthquake." But for a stable Europe and the United States are really hard times. We'll see. And we will be ready for anything.