Mattis's “secret cookies” to the “school truce” promise an “anthology of cauldrons”. Donbass "at the gate" big change!
The complex of political clowning, mixed with the enormous human grief of the Russian population of Donbass, which has been observed over the past three years on the contact line between the young republics and reaching the “Square” pen, causes not so much the desire to conduct the next prognostic analysis as an endless rush of angry emotions based on the sense of injustice and understanding of the consequences that are expected after any conclusion with the Ukrainian side of any "bread" pseudo-surrogate and other nonsense out agreements with the participation of Kiev and European players. Unfortunately, the “big game” with its sanctions and geostrategic manipulations directed against Russia, partly economically dependent on the West, put the population of such cities of Donbass as Mariupol, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Artyomovsk, Konstantinovka, Volnovakha and Krasnoarmeysk, before the expectation of release corps of the militia will take a considerable period of time, and not so much because of the operational and tactical unavailability of the corps, but in connection with more serious geopolitical issues that require definitely time for permission.
It seems that this “frozen” stage has almost come to an end, just like the completely “Minsk agreements” with the “Norman format”, which Kiev has not fulfilled any of the points over the years. Many analytical and news resources for unknown reasons pinned great hopes on a meeting between Russian Presidential Aide Vladislav Surkov and US Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker; and this despite the fact that literally a month ago, during a visit to the Donbass, Volker made it clear that Washington would continue to take an exclusively pro-Ukrainian position. Moreover, Walker is an ardent supporter of the continuation of Ukrainian aggression aimed at the destruction of the civilian population of Donbass, which was expressed in his initiative to provide new anti-tank weapons to Ukrainian military units. An extremely erroneous and short-sighted opinion on the significance of the Minsk meeting between Surkov and Volker on August 21 was expressed by Lugansk publicist and participant in the South of Russia expert initiative, Tikhon Goncharov. According to him, the further outcome of the conflict in the Donbass could depend on the consultations between senior diplomats. But as expected, the exact opposite happened.
Firstly, as many information specialists point out, the meeting was of an informational nature only: no results were achieved. Moreover, on the eve of the meeting, 20 of August 2017 of the year, at the direction of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, an local offensive "throw" of the 57 units of the separate motorized infantry brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of the front-line settlement of Zhabunki (near Sand, in Donetsk Donetsk) was made. The defensive units of the NM DPR corps were put in a hopeless situation: once again they “wiped off”, having lost several thousand square meters of the territory conquered by blood on the western approaches to Donetsk, or to push the aggressor back to previous positions. The second option was chosen, after which a wide nomenclature of 120-mm min and 122- / 152-mm high-explosive fragmentation shells from D-30 howitzers, Hyacinth-B as well as ACS "Acacia" and "Carnation". This led to the destruction of many private houses and the death of the guard commander of the 3 th fire and rescue unit in Donetsk, the captain of the civil defense service Valery Vdovichenko. NM DPR gunners responded with powerful counter-battery fire to the suppression, which allowed them to calm the enemy, but only temporarily.
Battery 120-mm towed artillery 2B16 "Nona-K" of the Armed Forces of the DPR
Against the background of these reports from Novorossia, V. Surkov met with the subject who supported this aggression, supports and will continue to support. The statement of Vladislav Surkov on “mutual respect and interest” in the root of the Ukrainian problem can be considered nothing other than a diplomatic formality, because we have already seen the true face of Kurt Volcker. Consequently, no de-escalation movements should be expected in the bud. So what should we expect in the foreseeable future, when all the diplomatic loopholes for finding a compromise did not have the desired effect? Naturally, the continuation of the escalation steps, in which there is no more way back. The second step to exacerbate the situation ukry made 22 August 2017 of the year, on the eve of the August march of military units of the NATO member countries on Khreshchatyk 24 August on Independence Day "Square". So, the Ukrainian side has accused the units of 1-th AK NM NMDNR in the shelling of the settlement. Talakovka (a suburb of Mariupol) from the MLRS BM-21 “Grad” approximately in 20: 15. After exactly one hour, a so-called “response” was made from the same type of MLRS. The “dill” strike sector was chosen in a very original way: 10 NURSs tightly formed in the vicinity of Bezymenny, where the Joint Center for Control and Coordination of the Ceasefire is located. Russian and Ukrainian observers were forced to descend into the basement.
In reality, this was pure provocation: there was no shelling of Talakovka, which was confirmed by the population of the Ordzhonikidze, Eastern and Ilyichevsky districts of Mariupol; on the other hand, the eastern districts of Mariupol, proceeding towards Bezymenny, were clearly heard. Unfortunately, this time the Armed Forces of the DPR did not respond to the positions of the Ukrainian artillery, but this is only for the time being, because very soon it will be impossible not to respond. Military aggression from the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is expected, regardless of whether an agreement is reached on a cease-fire by September 1 or not. We also disappoint the percentage of readers who doubt that the OSCE works exclusively in favor of Kiev, and still hopes that this tricky gang with a very “chocolate” wage is neutral. In particular, after the Trudovskiy shelling from the positions of the Donbass battalion 20 on August 2017, correspondents of PolitNavigator and alarmed civilians tried to get the OSCE special mission objective and truthful coverage of the situation on the contact line, to which a predictable remark was made, “We didn’t you do not have to. " A logical question arises: why are the brazen observers of the Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republics, some of whom are also involved in transmitting to the Ukrainian side all the tactical information that they managed to “probe” in the republics. Dusk on the Donbass "blind, deaf and dumb" for a long time. From their side in the course of the forthcoming escalation there will be only unanimous support of the Ukrainian side.
As for the “night” quadrilateral telephone conference between the leaders of the “Norman Four” (V. Putin, Poroshenko, Merkel and Macron) held on August 22, there is literally no point in seeing its results. The agreed ceasefire for September 1 (called the “school truce” in Minsk) is only a short pause before major changes, which European leaders have little influence on, unlike the “big overseas patron” represented by the head of the Pentagon and other representatives of the Masonic Lodge. How many we remember similar arrangements for the last 3 of the year? List extremely difficult! The result is ultimately zero.
A truly impressive spectrum of military-political events is to be seen in the next couple of months around until the protracted conflict is impossible in the Donbass theater of operations. Firstly, this is a working visit to Kiev by US Secretary of Defense James Mattis, to whom 23 August was joined by Kurt Volker. Received a fully justified army nickname "Mad Dog", James Mattis skillfully uses it in his military-political activities. This applies above all to tough anti-Russian rhetoric: at the Brussels meeting of the defense ministers of NATO member states, he stated that it was necessary to speak with Russia only from a “position of strength”. The visit of Mattis, timed to Independence Day of Ukraine, was distinguished by a rather extensive agenda, which included meetings with representatives of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and illegally elected Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak, and a joint press approach with Poroshenko based on bilateral consultations between the military representatives of the states. For more than a week, many Ukrainian military experts and correspondents of central TV channels did not stop trumpeting on the “breakthrough” results of these consultations. Some of them relied on the possible achievement of an agreement on the provision of lethal weapons to Kiev, as which the inveterate pro-American “fennels” see the FGM-148 “Javelin” anti-tank missile system.
Others did not share such an optimistic point of view of the first, pointing only to the possibility of continuing the existing military-technical support in the form of the transfer of anti-battery radar artillery reconnaissance AN / TPQ-36 "Firefinder" and portable AN / TPQ-48, unmanned controlled vehicles of territorial intelligence RQ- 11 "Raven", M82A2 / 3 large-caliber rifles and PSRL-1 hand grenade launchers. Anyway, and whose point of view would not prevail, the material and technical assistance from the Pentagon will be continued or even increased. The statement by Mattis made during the August 24 briefing fully confirmed this. Information about the possible supply of ATGM "Jawellin" is already confirmed in the rhetoric of the head of the US military department, but is not disclosed. From this we draw the appropriate conclusion: Washington will give Kiev the technological opportunity to move on to an attempt to implement the plan, announced at the beginning of 2017, by the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Arsen Avakov. Recall that the notorious minister of the illegitimate government "Square" called on the border units of the National Guard of Ukraine (NSU) to prepare to seize the vacant border between LDNR and the Russian Federation before the end of this year. Later (in June of this year) advisor to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Zoryan Shkiryak announced preparations for the “cleansing” of the republics.
Moreover, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on a regular basis receives integrated information about the tactical situation in the Donbass theater of military operations from the European command of the US Air Force. The main reconnaissance element in this case is the Global Radio and Optoelectronic Intelligence RQ-4A “Global Hawk” UAV with the call sign UAVGH000, which has been a very frequent guest in the airspace of Donbass for the past two years. Using an onboard AF / AN / ZPY-2 MP-RTIP radar operating in Synthetic Aperture Mode (SAR) at a frequency of the order of 10 GHz, the drone scans the surface of the LDNR territory to a depth of about 170 - 220 km (depending on the proximity of the flight path to the line contact) with the construction of the terrain and the classification of all visible units of armored vehicles and artillery buildings NM LDNR. Recall that in the last 2 of the month, UAVGH000 was seen only 25 km from Mariupol, and this indicates that the US Air Force attempted to get a “package” of optical-electronic reconnaissance information in the form of digital photographs of ultrahigh resolution (a smaller distance to the explored territory reduces the amount of atmospheric distortion for the integrated fiber optic SYERS-2C, which allows not only to classify, but also to identify small ground objects).
Meanwhile, knowing the operational and technical capabilities, motivation, moral and psychological level and combat experience of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it is simply ridiculous to hear any statements from various representatives of the security forces of Ukraine.
Break through the anti-tank frontiers and “break through” through the artillery “barriers” of the DPR People’s Militia Corps in the Donetsk-Makeevka agglomeration area and on the Novoazovsk ONU with the APU even with 2 - 3 -fold numerical superiority in personnel and 1,5 - multiple superiority armored vehicles and artillery units. At the same time, there are less fortified boundaries of the Donetsk People's Republic. To them, without any reflection, can be attributed "Telmanovsky Isthmus" or Debaltsevo HE. The depth of the rear zone in the “Telmanovsky Isthmus” area reaches only 35 km, while at Debaltsevo HE the concentration of personnel and equipment remains at a satisfactory level. Here, “breakthroughs” are possible, but they will not be able to gain a foothold in the new ukry positions, since the defensive units from the Donetsk and Novoazovsk groups of the NM DPR will quickly arrive. The threat is that before such attempts at assault “throws” artillery preparations will occur, destroying the residential infrastructure of the settlements of Novorossia; and with this it is necessary to do something.
An asymmetrical response to such actions appeared at the end of 2014, when the militia then received the militia’s counter-battery 1L271 “Aistonok” counter-battery radar of the artillery reconnaissance. The return fire of the gunners of New Russia has become much more accurate. In particular, the determination of the coordinates of enemy mortar calculations along the ascending and descending branches of the mine trajectory occurs at a distance of 4 (for 82-mm min) and 7 km (for 120 mm min). The range of calculating the coordinates of mortars on the descending branch of the trajectory alone can be from 7 to 12 km, respectively, but the accuracy in this case decreases several times, since the mine manages to undergo meteorological impact. Judging by the reports for 15 and 17, the Aistens allowed to destroy the positions of Ukrainian mortars and artillery ten times faster and more efficiently. The best results were demonstrated at the Donetsk ON, where Ukrainian militants most often use heavy artillery against the defenders of the republics and the peaceful population. Judging by the information received in recent days, the need for active use of these radar systems may arise in the Armed Forces of the DPR very soon.
Portable radar artillery reconnaissance 1L271 "Aistonok" in Donetsk. The station is able to detect a tank-type target at a distance of 20 km (of course, when placed at the proper height)
Despite the next unpromising “school truce” planned with 00: 00 on August 25, the situation on the contact line continues to get complicated. Not only does the intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of the DPR record the transfer of additional artillery batteries and motorized infantry units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to various sectors of the Northern and Southern Fronts of Novorossia, changes in the camp of nationalist volunteer formations that are only partially subordinate to the current Ukrainian top also attract attention. Thus, 17 August 2017, the main military "backbone" of the nationalist regiment "Azov" operating on the new Azov and Telman directions, came under the command of the new militant, nicknamed "Radis", who replaced the ex-commander "Mose". The first commander of “Azov” and the people's deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Andrey Biletsky appointed “Radis”, who arrived for this purpose in the town of Urzuf, located in the 30 km west of Mariupol.
The commander of the group was not commented on, but at the time of his appointment, Biletsky noted that “the new commander will be able to win the war and liberate the Donbass”. We all know well that the leaders of Ukrainian do-it-yourselfers like to rush with loud statements, not supported by the technical capabilities of the groups, but they should not be underestimated. For example, the number of the Azov regiment can reach about 1200 - 1500 people of drugs; at the same time, the regiment is one of the components of the National Guard under and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and therefore receives armored vehicles and small arms from the “common trough” supervised by Avakov. There are several dozen BTR-3 / 4, a similar number of armored Spartan and Cougar SUVs, 23-mm twin anti-aircraft gun ZU-23-2, a certain number of MBT and several dozen transported howitzers D-30 and mortars. Naturally, to oppose this arsenal to the nomenclature of weapons available to various units of the 1-th AK NM NM of the Ministry of Defense of the DPR simply does not make sense; but in some areas of the Mariupol operational direction (and under certain circumstances), even what Azov has can become a significant obstacle on the way to sweeping the environs of Volnovakhi or Mariupol with assault units of the DPR army. In any case, the above statements of the Azov’s leader indicate only readiness for a new stage of the conflict.
Not so long ago, the media focused on one of the main legal components of Minsk-2 - the law “On the special procedure for local self-government in certain areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions” (also known as the law “On the special status of Donbass”), which was adopted September 16, 2014 and entered into force on October 18 of the same year. For the sovereignty and residents of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, as well as in terms of the return of the republics occupied by Ukrainian military forces (Mariupol, Volnovakha, Slavyansk, etc.), this bill is as criminal as the destructive “Minsk Agreements”. The document provides for the phased reintegration of the republics of Novorossia into Ukraine, "under the deadly wing" of those who burned the Russian population of Donbass with rocket and barreled artillery, tactical ballistic missiles "Tochka-U", destroyed aviation Nurses and bombs. Over the past three years, this law has been the legal basis of the Minsk Agreements (it was for such a period of time that it was developed). And now, on September 16, 2017, the document expires from the moment of its signing, and on October 18 - from the moment of its entry into force. The Ukrainian side is not going to think about extending it, avoiding discussion of this issue both within the framework of Minsk and in the Norman format. Where it leads?
Firstly, to the complete loss of legal force of the “Minsk Agreements” for the Ukrainian side, since the abolition of the “special status” will turn the LDNR not into territories where elections are necessary and slow reintegration into “Square”, but into hostile bridgeheads that need to be cleared by force using tactics applied during Operation Storm (almost all Ukrainian radicals rave about it). In the context of the growing economic crisis in Ukraine, the deteriorating state of nuclear power plants, and the possible leakage of bacterial and viral infections from secret US laboratories, the current Kiev regime urgently needs a quick and effective diversion that would distract the population from primary problems. Without any hesitation and doubt, it is possible to attribute to it a large-scale and long-lasting escalation of the conflict in Donbass, which is more logical to continue with the simultaneous refusal to extend the law “On the special status of Donbass”. It is precisely to incite this conflict that Kiev today requested support from Washington.
As you already understood, despite the vivid reminders and. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the DPR, Natalia Nikonorova, on the need to extend the aforementioned law, for Donbass, the termination of the legal background of the “Minsk format” will be a unique “carte blanche” for the use of the full range of responses to aggression from Kiev. And this range will no longer be limited only by a powerful counter-battery "gnawing" of artillery calculations by NM DPR, here we will see new counter-offensive operations, many small and large tactical "boilers" with the subsequent release of all Russian cities of Donbass and Northern Azov. “Zeroing” of the “Special Status” may become the most important autumn event in the continuation of the successful struggle for the “Russian world”, on which we have been relying for more than three years.
Information sources:
https://ria.ru/world/20170824/1501021572.html
http://www.politnavigator.net/mid-dnr-napomnil-kievu-pro-osobyjj-status-donbassa.html
http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/3878472-alternatyvy-zakonu-ob-osobom-statuse-donbassa-net-ekspert
Information