Causes of the crash of Tu-154 flying to Syria remain unclear
A lot of enthusiastic researchers, but, unfortunately, not professionals at all, are struggling to unravel a number of mysterious catastrophes that happened in the last century. The reason for this is often the same - the desire of the authorities to "disown" from past events and remain "fluffy", not stained before the people. Therefore, ordinary people believe different rumors and gossip generated by pseudo-researchers who do not have the knowledge necessary for an objective investigation of events. At the same time, the causes of most tragedies lie on the surface, but this is rarely noticed.So it was with the death of Valery Chkalov and Yuri Gagarin, as well as with the search for the expedition of Sigismund Levanevsky. Among the most “mysterious” incidents of the most recent times are the crash of the Tu-154B2 plane that was heading to Syria, which occurred on December 25 on 2016 of the year. She, by the way, is very similar to the tragedy of the IL-18В aircraft, which occurred in October 1972.
Then, shortly after takeoff (19 h 22 min) from Adler airport, at the height of 150 – 250, the car started right, and then went into a steep left turn and dropped into the water at a distance of 6,5 – 10,5 km from the coast. As a result, 118 people died. The weather for the flights was favorable: the sky was clear, the wind was weak, the air temperature was + 17 ± С, and visibility was over 5 km.
However, some eyewitnesses to the tragedy talked about some kind of flash near the plane just before its fall. Despite all the efforts, the main plane wrecks and flight recorders were never found.
Naturally, immediately after the tragedy of 2016, there was an assumption about some (mystical) connection of these events. But upon closer inspection, all this mystic had to be discarded, because this time the plane took off at night in adverse weather conditions and fell at a distance of about 1,7 km from the coast. Everything was very confusing, and the headline “The Secret Catastrophe” even slipped through to the media. So, maybe, this flight was indeed classified as secret, that only one commander knew about him from the crew?
INEVITABLE QUESTIONS
On the failure of the official version of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on this tragedy, many experts spoke. The only thing you can agree with is the fact that the plane was in good order, which is important.
The Tu-154B-2 liner is one of the highly reliable aircraft, and if you look at the statistics, you will not find the "fault" of the machine in severe flight accidents, except for a few cases. Moreover, this aircraft has the highest thrust-weight ratio and compared to other airliners at the time of its creation, it can safely continue flying if one of the engines fails.
In the case of the Tu-154B-2, which had the tail number RA-85572, several questions not previously voiced immediately appear. The flight to Syria is quite responsible, especially with such eminent passengers - the Ensemble named after A.V. Alexandrova. It has long been known that for such flights in the 8th aviation Special Forces divisions (adon) are usually provided with a double crew, and they are prepared in advance. Moreover, the car and crew must be on combat duty or, as they say briefly, “on the database”. In this case, there can be no question not only of the emergency recruitment of the crew, but also of the search for its commander. Yes, and passengers must be warned in a few days, since there are many civilians among them, whose collection by alarm is impossible. It is not a hay to haul for cows. So why did the command of the videoconferencing arrange an emergency?
Next question. The division includes not only obsolete Tu-154Б-2, but also newer Tu-154М, which have already been to Syria and are capable of carrying commercial cargo or 18 passengers for a distance of 180 km without an intermediate airfield. Its predecessor, the Tu-3900B-154 with a similar load, is capable of covering a distance of 2 km. Agree, a noticeable difference. But it's flowers.
The division has long-range IL-62M aircraft. They are able to carry a large load for a much greater distance. In addition, the IL-62M, with full refueling, can return home using unused fuel. Hmeimim’s airfield with a runway of length 2797 m (assuming an experienced pilot is at the helm of the aircraft, since the required runway length for it depending on the ambient temperature 3000 – 3250 m) allows, in theory, to receive this plane with a run-up length of 2250 m and 1000 m run. For comparison, the An-124-100 “Ruslan” aircraft requires a runway with a length of 3000 m, and it has repeatedly appeared in the sky of Syria.
However, for some reason this car was not offered for a flight to Syria. Why?
But I consider the main issue to be different: why the flight took place at night, and not in the morning, because there is nothing to fly to Syria. Would quietly land at Mozdok, as was done more than once, and forward, to the final destination of the route. But that did not happen.
WHY NEED MYSTERNITY
Of the above, the only conclusion that suggests itself is that this flight was originally conceived in order to conceal its purpose from Western special services and militants of the Islamic State (IG, prohibited in the Russian Federation). The fact is that the Mozdok airfield as a military object is probably under the control of US intelligence, which records which board flies there and which one flies away. The attitude of the government and the President of the United States to Russia has long been known, and it is very likely that the Pentagon would share its intelligence with the opposition. The appearance of the Tu-154 or Il-62 in Mozdok (they are currently operated mainly in the VKS) will immediately alert them.
Another thing is the civil airport Adler. When was the last time civilian planes flew to Syria? True, the pilot Volkov on the Tu-154 two months before this took off from Adler. But why and where? Or maybe it was a training flight before the planned voyage to Syria? And the flight itself at a low altitude above the sea, and at night, is not an invention of the crew commander, but rather an order, since it allowed to hide the true intentions of the command. Perhaps it was a good idea, since the experience of Ukraine made it easier to deal with a civilian plane.
But flying at a low altitude is a very complicated matter, especially over land, and requires special training. Above the sea, it is much simpler, especially at the height of 300 m. Passed an imperceptibly necessary section - and gain height in the direction of Turkey (it cannot be excluded that there was an agreement with it), to the place where you are not expected. Only the commander could have known about this. The rest of the crew had only to carry out his orders, and no questions. This was the key to success.
Such mystery should have been promoted by refueling at the airport without unloading passengers so that no one could see them. And this is a violation of all the instructions on preparing the aircraft for re-flight. And if a fire? The car was powered, besides, the auxiliary power plant had to work, not only feeding the necessary minimum of equipment, but also updating the air in the salons.
The flight over the sea was supposed to take place under the condition of radio silence, why the earth did not hear anything after leaving the runway. If this is so, then it becomes clear why they didn’t use the services of IL-62М, because to control such a hulk at low altitude hardly anyone would dare.
Now a few words about overloading the machine. In the media, the words of the crew commander addressed the dispatcher, asking him to start the run-up from the start of the runway (in other words, from its butt) because it is “heavy”. In this regard, another question arises - why was it necessary to overload the car in such a way? Yes, everything is very simple: a low-altitude flight is associated with an over-expenditure of fuel. And this is another confirmation of the version of the secrecy of the mission.
For flight in adverse weather conditions at night, everything necessary was onboard: two artificial horizons (not including emergency ones), a low-altitude radio altimeter (not including barometrics), a list of roll and slip, and a variometer (vertical speed indicator), although somewhat inertial barometric. These devices are quite enough to overcome the initial part of the path at a low altitude. But…
In this situation, it is impossible to exclude poor training (for flying at low altitude) of the crew commander and the absence of such experience from the co-pilot. But it’s not the crew’s fault, but the organizers of the action, which hardly anyone will admit, since it’s easier to blame everything on the crew, which you won’t return.
OUR VARIOUS HABIT
There is in this stories another vague point. As is known, the flight composition of all aircraft, whether civilian or military, is clearly regulated by the so-called flight time, after which any crew member may refuse to fly. This also leads to another question: when did the RA-85572 board commander expire on his flight time, did he have a reserve to fly to Syria?
In conclusion, the final question (since there may still be a lot of them): why was it necessary at all to arrange this window dressing? Indeed, in Syria, there are military people who are prepared for wartime. In addition, the military are not present on a permanent basis, they are rotated. So, they could do without concerts. The answer to this question is also the surface. The organizers of this action needed a political effect, no more. And they actually got it. And what are the relatives of the victims - after all, close people cannot be replaced with material compensation.
It is high time to learn that December is the most intense month of the year, especially its last days, when people, hurrying home, often commit rash acts. Examples can abound. And we, as the successor of the USSR, seem to have a desire to present “gifts” with surprises for holidays and anniversaries. With this vicious practice, it's time to stop.
A different reader may be associated with complete nonsense ... But do not rush to conclusions, because the author’s version, as a last resort, will only be judged by time. When you take on such opuses, you involuntarily ask yourself questions: how right are you in your conclusions and are there any technical errors in the text? Therefore, you have to reread the written several times, stretching this procedure, checking every word. Very much questions and the conclusions that come to mind are responsible. But every time you make sure that everything is logical, you just have to wait for the reaction of those involved in the tragedy. Will she follow?
Information