About the US dollar and the Russian ruble in international settlements of Russia

37


Recently, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov made a statement about possible actions by the Russian Federation in response to the new package of United States economic sanctions. The key point of the proposals of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia is the reduction of our country's dependence in the field of international settlements on the US dollar. Washington needs the Russian side to be “on the hook,” the official said. The dollar as the currency of international reserves and international settlements of the Russian Federation is the same hook.



Similar proposals were heard from the mouth of some Russian officials, State Duma deputies, politicians before, but they were not of such official nature. Specific about how to get off the hook, it is rather, it is not the Foreign Ministry, and the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance. I will try, if possible, to highlight the issue, setting out my vision for solving the problem.

Since 2013, the Bank of Russia has begun publishing statistics on the currency structure of settlements in the Russian Federation for the export and import of goods and services on a quarterly and annual basis. The positions of the three major currencies stand out: the Russian ruble, the dollar and the euro. All other monetary units are included in the article "Other currencies".

Let's see how the currency structure of calculations with all countries of the world in 2013 and 2016 looked. (tab. 1).

The structure of calculations on foreign trade of Russia with all countries of the world by type of currency (%)

About the US dollar and the Russian ruble in international settlements of Russia


Data Table. 1 the following conclusions:

1. The US dollar has been and remains the main currency of Russia's foreign trade settlements;

2. The share of the dollar in export revenues is about twice as high as its share in payments for imports: the fact is that hydrocarbons dominate in Russia's exports, calculations for which for more than forty years are carried out almost exclusively in US dollars. Russia's imports are more diversified in the product mix, many products are traded on the world market for euros, British pounds, and other key currencies; their suppliers often agree to pay in national currencies of the exporter and / or importer;

3. Share of the US dollar over the period 2013-2016 decreased slightly in the calculations for exports, and in calculations for imports. In part, this decrease can be explained by economic sanctions against Russia, which have intensified its efforts to reduce dollar dependence in international settlements;

4. The share of the Russian ruble in international settlements of the Russian Federation today is comparable to the share of the euro. These two currencies somewhat increased their share in the calculations for the period 2013-2016, but still noticeably lag behind the dollar.

Not only Russia is trying to reduce its dependence on the US dollar. Other countries have also made official statements about the need to avoid the monopoly of the dollar, but so far their success has been very modest. According to expert estimates, in international trade about 70% deals are made in US dollars, 20% - in euros, and 10% accounts for the pool of remaining 16 freely convertible currencies CLS (international system of foreign exchange conversion transactions). Every day, about six hundred thousand exchange transactions pass through this system, the total amount of which exceeds 3,5 trillion US dollars. This international clearing center for currency transactions, by the way, does not include the ruble, the Brazilian real, or the yuan (which recently received the official status of the IMF reserve currency).

You can also look at the statistics published by the SWIFT system (international payments information transmission system), which serves the lion’s share of all international payment transactions in the world. According to the latest data (June 2017), in operations passing through SWIFT, the US dollar accounted for 40,47%; on euro - 32,89; British pound sterling - 7,29; Japanese yen - 3,16; for Chinese yuan - 1,98%. As for the ruble, it is somewhere in the middle of the second ten of currencies. It is noteworthy that today China occupies the first place in the turnover of world trade (its share is 13%), and the share of the yuan in SWIFT operations in 20 is less than the share of the US dollar (while the share of the United States in world trade is 12%) . Such imbalances have existed for many decades, there is no cardinal success in overcoming them yet.

The USA (first of all, the owners of money represented by the main shareholders of the Federal Reserve System) receive a huge rent from the fact that the dollar is used as the currency of international reserves and international settlements, and prevent any attempts to change the existing world currency order. The arsenal of methods for maintaining the status quo of the United States dollar is the widest - from propaganda and informational suggestion (“the dollar is the best currency”) to military operations and the destruction of states that encroach on the monopoly of the dollar (Libya is the last vivid example).

However, let us return to the currency structure of international settlements of Russia. Below, according to the Central Bank, the currency structure of calculations with non-CIS countries is given, which last year accounted for 85% of Russia's trade turnover (Table 2).

The structure of calculations on foreign trade of Russia with foreign countries by type of currency (%)



As you can see, the share of the US dollar in export earnings to foreign countries is higher than the average for all countries. But the share in payments for imports is below the average. Moreover, in 2016, the share of the euro in import calculations came very close to the share of the US dollar. Among the far-abroad countries, the main trading partners of the Russian Federation remain the countries of the European Union (42,8% of Russia's total trade turnover in the past years, or about half of all trade with non-CIS countries), which explains the relatively high level of euro use. The share of the ruble in trade with foreign countries grew, but the increase was very modest.

Now let's see what the currency structure of calculations of Russia with the BRICS countries looks like (table 3).

The structure of calculations on Russian foreign trade with the BRICS countries by type of currency (in%)



The data table. 3 for someone may be unexpected. We constantly hear about negotiations, agreements, joint projects within the group of BRICS countries, which include Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. It seems that an active process of economic and monetary and financial integration of these five countries is taking place. However, the share of the Russian ruble in Russia's export calculations in 2016 with the BRICS countries was the same as with all foreign countries. And if we take the calculations for imports, the share of the ruble is extremely low - 3,2% (against 25,1% with all foreign countries). What is even more surprising: for the period 2013-2016. this proportion has even decreased. Statistics show that monetary integration within the BRICS group exists only on paper.

The Bank of Russia provides the currency structure of settlements of Russia with such important partners as China and India (Table 4 and 5).

The structure of calculations on foreign trade of Russia with China by type of currency (%)



Despite all the declarations on the need for a transition in mutual settlements between Russia and the PRC to national currencies (ruble and yuan), the currency structure of their calculations is characterized by the dominance of the US dollar. Moreover, the share of the Russian ruble is indecently low in import payments (2,1% in 2016), it even fell by one and a half times compared to 2013 (at the end of 2014, the Russian ruble collapsed, which damaged Russia's economic relations with its partners: they revised their intentions to expand settlements in Russian currency and again began to demand from Russia settlements in dollars or other more stable currencies). The share of “other currencies” has increased very noticeably in import payments. I think that behind this position is the yuan. To date, currency asymmetry has arisen in the calculations of Russia and China: the use of Chinese currency is many times higher than the use of the Russian ruble.

But the currency structure of calculations with India (table. 5).

The structure of calculations on foreign trade of Russia with India by type of currency (%)



In trade with India, Russia has a relatively smaller use of the US dollar and uses substantially more rubles, when compared with China. Although in general the share of the Russian ruble in payments for the import of Indian goods and services for 2013-2016. shrunk. The reason is the same - the collapse of the ruble in December 2014, its high volatility and increased distrust of the Russian currency on this basis.

In conclusion, let us consider the currency structure of settlements of Russia with the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) within the Russian Federation, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia.

The structure of calculations on foreign trade of Russia with the countries of the EAEU by type of currency (%)



In the calculations with the four countries - members of the EAEU, the Russian ruble is the leading currency, its share exceeds half in both export and import operations. Over the period 2013-2016. the share of the Russian ruble has noticeably increased in both export receipts and import payments. The share of the US dollar has dropped significantly. This currency structure is encouraging, but there is one "but." The trade turnover of Russia with the EEU member countries in 2016 amounted to 39 billion. Since the total trade turnover of Russia with all countries of the world last year was 471 billion dollars, it turns out that only 8,3% fell to trade within the EAEU. The success of the Russian ruble in trade with four other countries of the EAEU is partly due to the fact that this trade is skewed: exports from Russia to the EAEU countries in 2016 amounted to 25,46 billion dollars, and imports - only 13,58 billion dollars. In fact, the ruble is not used here so much as a tool for settlements in foreign trade, as much as a tool for hidden lending to Russia's partners in the EAEU.
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  1. +14
    19 August 2017 15: 59
    What is the article about? I do not understand. What is the US dollar? Yes, it is the most stable currency supported by the whole world. It is a reflection of the fact that there is quiet and everywhere there is war. The dollar is provided with goods and raw materials around the world, as well as high technology located exclusively in the United States. The number of rubles in the turnover of Russia depends on the number of Gold and foreign currency reserves read dollars !!!! If you dig further, look around - how much will you see Russian ?? the computer you are sitting at, a car, clothes, even food, alcohol. Building materials - everywhere around there are plastic windows from abroad, profile. Where do the ruble settlements come from ??? The ruble is the hypostasis of the dollar. I tried to live buying Russian. Does not work. As it turned out, the country no longer has Caustic, bleach and potassium permanganate, and both turned out to be Chinese. How right was Stalin, buying equipment for factories !!! The latter is the ratio of the dollar to the ruble = the share of imports to the share of own production, goods and not raw materials.
    1. +1
      19 August 2017 16: 51
      Quote: aybolyt678
      How right was Stalin, buying equipment for factories !!!


      Grandfather Joseph’s business LIVES!
      1. +1
        19 August 2017 20: 36
        Quote: Titsen
        The Case of Grandfather Joseph LIVES

        kind of breathing
    2. +4
      19 August 2017 17: 34
      It doesn’t matter what currency the international payments are made in. Common currencies in international trade are the dollar and the euro. And nothing will change from the position of Russia alone. Yes, and why? It is possible to FORCIDELY transfer all international payments to rubles even now, but it will simply increase transaction costs, which means it will make all Russian goods cheaper and imported ones more expensive.
      Actually, for calculations you need to keep in the currency not so much. The main part is stored as a foreign exchange reserve, including in US treasury bonds. This is where global abbreviations are needed. And for this, you need to abandon the free ruble exchange rate and link it to the world basket of currencies. But our government is afraid of it like fire, and for completely irrational reasons. We have already forgotten that the floating exchange rate of the national currency was introduced to stimulate the inflow of foreign capital. And what are the foreign investments now under the conditions of sanctions?
      Fix the exchange rate of the ruble, and direct the released foreign exchange reserves to refinance foreign currency loans for business and purchase equipment for production.
      1. +9
        19 August 2017 17: 48
        The article that the "dollar" was steering in all accounts with foreign countries, and so it steers now, despite the loud cries of the patriots about its soon replacement with "wooden", it will also steer in the future ... wink
        1. +6
          19 August 2017 19: 55
          Quote: Monster_Fat
          also in the future he will steer ...

          Bucks - a piece of paper, she can not steer. The financial system is excellent - yes .... But you know what mortgage mortgages sailed for in 2007? To collapse. Fed still! spills infusions (kui) into the system, American commitments are nowhere cheaper. The horror is that it contains money from almost the whole world! If you stop your printing press now, you can say there will be no global monetary system. It’s not clear how these mountains of obligations will still be sorted out, it will take about 10 years. So if somewhere in the economy it grunts or the war doesn’t start urgently, the monetary system of not only America, but the rest of the world can be nationalized along with Aig, Freddy Mack, Fanny Mai and other debtors - they wanted to earn, almost any bankruptcy is rounded off by this childish excuse hi
          1. +1
            19 August 2017 20: 52
            Quote: Novel 11
            It is unclear how to sort these mountains of obligations yet, it will take 10 years

            I would highly recommend http://doctormike10.livejournal.com/
            I would be interested in your opinion. just read to the end
            1. +2
              19 August 2017 22: 37
              Quote: aybolyt678
              I would highly recommend http://doctormike10.livejournal.com/
              I would be interested in your opinion. just read to the end

              I looked. There is a sample of opinions for 5 years. If interested, you can discuss in detail.

              You quoted the phrase, but it does not contain doubts about paying off debts, but incomprehensibility, obscurity. The blog has only words and opinions ..... Do you know what psychology is and how it behaves in conditions of general collapse? In 2007, it began with the fact that people there picked up a mortgage that were not provided with their payment rating, it came to a ridiculous one, a cleaning lady bought 5 apartments on credit! Naturally, her rating passed, because it was higher than a certain scale of reliability ..... But bankers - well, they are children, if paper gives good, then please get "happiness" --- and that's it, as one general secretary said, "the process went . " Although bankers can be understood when money flows from all over the world and interest rates are lower than the plinth, then it’s just right to earn money not only on “puffed” mortgages, but in a game of thimbles.

              Just between us, they said that crisis they borrowed, which hangs and gradually they think of hooting it, including with the help of such things as: 2. Intra-government debt - the amount of securities by the US Treasury Department purchased by other US government organizations ... That is, the debt is internal, and in this part of the US debt should be on their own, and nothing else should be given to anyone else.

              I will say more, in 2008 they nationalized their monetary system, but not with the help of armored cars, the sailor Zheleznyak and the capture of Zimnyi ...... but with the help of a money machine - emissions. Then they will store this paper with themselves and within 10 years to reset debts, as the USSR forgave everyone wink

              PS In the meantime, they have a support and infusion program, i.e. the patient (financial system) is still on artificial respiration, everyone knows about it and is most afraid of it. Can you imagine what will happen if one day in the morning international trade disappears?
        2. 0
          19 August 2017 21: 23
          Quote: Monster_Fat
          also in the future he will steer ...
          Or maybe in the future cryptocurrency will steer? Bitcoin for example! wink
          1. +1
            20 August 2017 06: 09
            Bitcoin and other crypto-not currency and not money, this is a "thing" and is traded on the exchange. Has no purchasing power and direct conversion.
      2. +3
        19 August 2017 20: 30
        Quote: Nikolai K
        And what are the foreign investments now under the conditions of sanctions?

        Before World War I, there were also investments in the Russian economy. Russia became dependent on them. It got to the point that guns were fired and shells for them were made by England. Investments are a double-edged sword and unfortunately they usually go to the commodity sector or to trade.
      3. +1
        19 August 2017 20: 34
        if the Central Bank was state-owned and if there was a political will to sort out the economy. But besides the economy, there should be Ideology as an additional tool for identifying and eliminating the Enemies of the People and solving other problems
    3. +4
      19 August 2017 18: 56
      Quote: aybolyt678
      What is the US dollar? Yes, it is the most stable currency supported by the whole world. It is a reflection of the fact that there is quiet and everywhere there is war.

      How to know? Today, the buck is on horseback, and tomorrow, under the horse. They have really good performance in the economy. And yet her level is close to full. With further weak growth, some extension of stability is possible, maybe it will continue to the limit of the population, there are 1-2 yards + -. It is not clear how they drown out external debt. In addition, their bonds are not very profitable. Everyone believes in their sustainability - that is what causes doubt. And yet, their production capability curve is lagging too far, and this is not good, life on credit, when almost all the world's money flows into the country? - This is the 2nd alarming moment. There is a third, instability in international trade, mainly with the EU and Asia, and that's all, the collapse of a la mortgages 3 is almost guaranteed, only in the field of finance, since they had an unhealthy overhang since the last crisis, to redeem the obligations of debtors, Now they will smoothly clear out this whole block - it will take about 2008 years, or maybe more. This is where the threat of collapse is hidden, if suddenly there is a recession, recession and other bad things. But their financial system is almost flawless, they did not create it quickly, the whole world uses it, but I repeat - this is the risk, if there is panic, then I will run the emerging markets first ... you just need to remember that nothing lasts forever and strengthen its financial niche, as it does not look fun so far.
  2. 0
    19 August 2017 16: 10
    The trend is obvious. About a percent per year. It would be noticeable 3-4 percent. But! But will Russia not be likened to its neighbors and “shoot” in the foot? We must remain calm and do not forget about the benefits.
    Taking this opportunity, I would like to note that "horror stories" like an embargo on the sale of hydrocarbons from Russia (like Iran) can hardly be realized. Russia's share in production is too large. This would cause such a jump in prices that surely there would be buyers laughing
    1. +4
      19 August 2017 19: 34
      Quote: Mountain Shooter
      Russia's share in production is too large. This would cause such a jump in prices that surely there would be buyers

      Well no. It depends on what hydrocarbons, if oil, then the world will increase production, + now all OPEC and Neopek oil workers have reduced quotas, so they will start the mechanism to full and compensate. Of course, we are making a very large contribution to the market, but we should not overestimate it in the light of the latest trends. Indeed, look, despite the reduction in volumes, the price is in no hurry to go up! The cartel is considering not only renewing, but also reducing quotas. What is it for? So oil is not required. It is understandable, there are oil shale and alternatives .... for example, the Western auto industry is gradually shifting to the electric motor. That is, the needs decreased, and with them our export revenues, and this puts pressure on the budget deficit, by the way already annually, and there are a million million more pensioners from year to year, in general there are a lot of bad symptoms, as they bet on top oil? Are they cutting into cards, or are they hoping for gas pipelines? It is possible to attach reserve and stabilization funds here, welfare there - now it seems to be combined into one. And where are our “capsules" on a rainy day? And external debt, just don’t fall - 500 yards of green! This is a little, approx. 35% of GNP. In general, no matter how you say it, but apart from criticism, nothing suits. And at the end of the 80s it was similar, it remains to drop oil to 15 green and hello 90 we returned ..... Of course the food base is better than then, but how strong is it we'll see, if God forbid, but the difference is that in the 90s we were not under sanctions.
  3. +1
    19 August 2017 16: 39
    Today is August 19th!
  4. +5
    19 August 2017 17: 31
    it would be more efficient to convert dollars into capital goods, infrastructure and gold
  5. +4
    19 August 2017 19: 43
    The problem is not that we use the dollar for settlements, but that we also trade for the dollar. We ourselves support the US economy, and all this talk, just talk.
    1. +3
      19 August 2017 20: 32
      Quote: APASUS
      The problem is not that we use the dollar for settlements, but that we also trade for the dollar. We ourselves support the US economy, and all this talk, just talk.

      Well, does the Fed praise for nothing to Nabiulin? And how many of them have been introduced in the bowels of the banking and ministerial ...
    2. +1
      19 August 2017 20: 45
      instead of a stabilization fund, you can invest in state-owned factories for the production of consumables for 3D printers, plastic windows and metal profiles, in cement plants and for this production to release your money. We have decidedly all the resources. Is it really impossible to do what is better and cheaper than They ??
  6. +2
    19 August 2017 20: 20
    The article is incomplete: it’s not even an article, but a torn piece.
    That statement Ryabkov surprised indescribably. 1) $ is not a topic for a diplomat. 2) no prerequisites are visible for such a statement. 3) for the dollar of the Russian Federation is a pug for an elephant. And why all this? Ryabkov’s statement looks somehow very ugly.
  7. 0
    19 August 2017 20: 30
    I would recommend an alternative to this article: http://doctormike10.livejournal.com/
    1. 0
      19 August 2017 20: 39
      only I found there an overkill in two places
  8. +1
    19 August 2017 20: 33
    The success of the Russian ruble in trade with four other EAEU countries is partly due to the fact that this trade is skewed: exports from Russia to the EAEU countries in 2016 amounted to 25,46 billion dollars, and imports - only 13,58 billion dollars. In fact, the ruble is used not so much as an instrument of settlements on foreign trade, how much as an instrument of hidden lending to partners of Russia in the EAEU.

    We feed, we feed, and they became insolent and "sat down on our neck, hanging legs" ... Already there is no Comintern since 1943 of the year ... It’s time to think about your own People .... Oh, it's me, naive, when and who thought of him ... Except for Stalin and Brezhnev ....
  9. 0
    19 August 2017 20: 41
    Quote: Monster_Fat
    The article that the "dollar" was steering in all accounts with foreign countries, and so it steers now, despite the loud cries of the patriots about its soon replacement with "wooden", it will also steer in the future ... wink

    Sure? Let’s see! Wooden, yes mine! Why is your pulp better? His time is coming to an end! Due to a stupid policy, you will soon lose such a feeding trough ...
    1. +1
      20 August 2017 06: 10
      Yes, yes, yes, “it’s already coming”, “coming soon”, “not far off”, etc., everything is right. wink
  10. +6
    19 August 2017 20: 48
    International macroeconomics is not my hobby. Well, I am sometimes interested in general indicators in the world, but no more. My country has other problems. However, in this article I was struck by the line:
    "... the total trade turnover of Russia with all countries of the world last year amounted to 471 billion."
    Is this a mistake? Compare with Israel - a tiny country the size of half of the Moscow region, where there is no forest, no oil, no coal for sale, and 2 / 3 of the territory is a rocky desert:
    "The total Israeli trade with foreign countries in 2012 amounted to more than 110 billion dollars."
    A huge country - the population of the Russian Federation is 20 times larger, the territory is 850 times larger, there are countless minerals, forests, etc. But is there any more trade with the countries of the world only 4? Somehow it does not look very ...
    1. +2
      19 August 2017 21: 07
      Russia in almost all economic areas looks weak. Russia's nominal value - $ 1400 billion - 12th place in the world. GDP per capita is $ 10. The average monthly salary in Russia is 000 dollars (in the USA 600 dollars, in Germany 5000 euros, in Estonia 3800 dollars, in Poland 1350 dollars). The GDP growth rate in Russia is 1250-1% (in the USA - 1.5%, in Estonia - 2.6%, in Lithuania and Latvia - 4.4%). According to the standard of living in 4-60 place.
      1. +1
        20 August 2017 05: 17
        Quote: Social Democrat
        GDP growth in Russia 1-1.5%

        financial inflation in the world is 2 percent per year. If we have a growth of 1,5 percent, this is not growth but decline
        1. 0
          20 August 2017 09: 28
          I ask you to forgive me, but GDP growth rates and inflation rates are two completely different financial concepts. hi
          Here, I found, specifically for you, the latest inflation data:
          1. 0
            21 August 2017 06: 14
            Quote: A. Privalov
            but GDP growth and inflation are two completely different financial concepts. hi

            and what do you measure GDP growth? presumably in pans per capita, or maybe in dollars? if all the same in dollars, then the real purchasing power of the dollar on average drops by 2 percent per year, if GDP growth is 1,5 percent, then it does not reach growth, but falls by half a percent.
        2. +1
          20 August 2017 09: 52
          Real GDP growth is calculated by the formula Nominal GDP Growth - Inflation . GDP growth of 1-1.5% is real growth. Nominal growth - 1-1.5% + 4% (inflation) = 5-5.5%.
          1. 0
            21 August 2017 15: 26
            but did not notice that official inflation is very different from nominal? In the city where I live there are no industrial enterprises at all. 3 years ago the dairy closed. And 15 years ago there were: Reinforced Concrete Plant, Brick Factory, Ekran Factory, Weaving Factory, Knitting Factory, White Plant. And it was in a settlement of 30 thousand people. People trade and raise pigs. All!
  11. +1
    19 August 2017 21: 12
    Figures are not about anything. What is the turnover between the Russian Federation and the USA? Who or what makes you pay green for hydrocarbons (as is customary, this is not an excuse) It's just laziness, when concluding contracts, to determine the settlement currency other than the dollar. And the main question! Why do we in Europe buy products for euros, but they do not buy our products for rubles? Where do we get the euro they don’t care why we should be interested, where will they get the rubles request In connection with the sanctions, the demand for currency in the Russian Federation is falling! And the collected taxes are converted into currency, why? The budget in rubles, and reserves in foreign currency, why? The Russian Federation must stop settlements in the currencies of countries that have imposed sanctions on us! And it will be a worthy answer to Chamberlain! And yet - the transfer of foreign currency (withdrawal) to foreign banks should be taxed at 70 percent and then we will forget about the withdrawal of capital, payments under contracts for the supply of products should not be taxed. Think gentlemen economists, think! hi
    1. 0
      20 August 2017 05: 20
      Quote: fif21
      The budget in rubles, and reserves in foreign currency, why?

      Because the Central Bank is not a state, but a division of the IMF
  12. +1
    20 August 2017 05: 22
    I will try to illuminate the issue as far as possible, setting out my vision for solving the problem.


    The author elucidated the question, but did not state his vision of the solution to the problem. Unclear...
    1. 0
      20 August 2017 05: 40
      If this is the same Katasonov, then I'm afraid the article is not in his style, usually he is more erudite, original. I join no conclusions.

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