From the Baltic to Southern Europe: Map of European Interests of Russia from Stratfor
Specialists of the brain trust “Stratfor” told the world about the interests of Russia and how far on the map of Europe these very interests extend. According to analysts, the Kremlin is “eyeing out” the “vulnerable” outskirts of Europe. Experts believe that the neighbors of the “great power” “covered the shadow” of Moscow.
In recent years, tensions between Russia and the West have increased, according to the website of the analytical company. "Stratfor". Moscow is increasingly using the methods of hybrid warfare to win and hold positions, competing for power and influence in the world, say the authors of the material.
The next report, Stratfor, explores the geopolitical context, goals and tools of the Russian strategy, as well as the steps taken by its rivals against Russia. "The shadow of a great power" covers its neighbors.
The peoples living on the outskirts of Europe (the Baltics, the Balkans, Central and Southern Europe) are “acutely aware” of a new reality, experts are convinced. States on the periphery of the continent are subject to the manipulations of Russia: the Kremlin seeks to exert pressure because of sanctions and an arms race and to sow internal discord in the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
At the same time, analysts note that the “Russian invasion” into the region is “impossible” or “unlikely”, since the states with which Russia would have to deal either belong to NATO (the Baltic countries) or are located “far enough” from Russia ( in the Balkans), or there is “both that and another” (Central and Southern Europe). However, war is “not the only tool in Moscow’s arsenal.” And "some types of hybrid warfare tactics, including political manipulations, punitive energy and economic measures, cyber attacks, disruptive propaganda and misinformation campaigns, pose a particular threat to countries located on the periphery of Europe."
1. Baltic: "Moscow methods" work.
The Baltic countries, according to experts of the brain trust, were “most vulnerable” to the “Moscow methods”. This is due, in particular, to numerous ethnic Russian communities, which account for 24% of the population of Estonia, 27% of the population of Latvia and 6% of the population of Lithuania. The political parties that serve these segments of society have achieved significant results in the parliamentary elections and thereby "provided Moscow with a certain level of influence on their governments in this process."
In addition, the Kremlin has resorted to other means of undermining local governments. One of such methods is, according to experts, “reducing energy exports”. For example, in 2006, Russia stopped oil supplies to Lithuania and set the “highest natural gas prices in Europe” for the Baltic states. “Eight years later, Moscow imposed restrictions on imports of agricultural products sent from the Baltic countries in response to the region’s support for EU sanctions against Russia for its role in the Ukrainian conflict,” analysts remind.
Along with economic measures, the Kremlin waged an aggressive cyber-information war against the Baltic countries, the Stratfor asserts. In 2007, Russian hacktivists launched mass cyber attacks against banks, ministries and the Estonian parliament.
Expecting to discredit NATO, Moscow distributed a “fake report” on the rape by German soldiers stationed in Lithuania of teenage girls. At the same time, “Russian-speaking news Vesti.lv website claimed that the military in Canada are staffed by homosexual soldiers and that such a contingent in Latvia cannot be trusted. ”
Writing such stories, analysts say, Russia "is trying to undermine the confidence of the Baltic peoples in the Western alliance."
2. Central and Southern Europe: Russians intend to split the continent in two.
Although in the countries of Central and Southern Europe there are no significant ethnic Russian communities that exist in the Baltic countries, their remoteness from Russia gives Moscow "more opportunities for political maneuver." The fact is that most of these countries "largely depend on the Russian energy industry and do not have territorial disputes with Russia, which suppresses any fears about the open invasion of the Kremlin forces". With the exception of Poland (bordering the Kaliningrad region) and Romania (which competes with Russia for influence in Moldova), the countries of Central and Southern Europe tend to adhere to a pragmatic position regarding relations with Moscow, according to Stratfor.
Moscow, however, is trying to use the pragmatic approach of these states to drive a wedge between EU members on a number of issues, including on the Union sanctions against Russia. The Kremlin used its promises to run the South Stream and 2 Nord Stream pipelines to demonstrate the fact that Russia "still has allies on the continent." In addition, Moscow is focusing on the support of "friendly governments" in Hungary, Greece and Italy, which even called for the lifting of sanctions against Russia. However, the Italian appeals disappeared in vain: the United States and Germany continue to put pressure on the EU states in order to preserve the “united front against Russia”.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin supports the interests of euro skeptics and far-right organizations in Central and Southern Europe. Here and "Five Stars" in Italy, and "Jobbik" in Hungary, and others. Moscow also "continues to launch cyber attacks" against "unfriendly governments." An example is the recent electronic attack by the Polish Foreign Ministry. In addition, there is Russian propaganda, accusing the United States of unleashing a Syrian civil war and a refugee crisis in Europe.
3. Balkans. Here the Russians are teasing with an appetizing carrot and beating it up with a stick. Traditional carrot and stick!
This region is the right place to widen the split of the West. Moscow applies a “more friendly approach” to some countries, providing “concessions, economic assistance and energy discounts.” For example, all this applies to Serbia. Moscow even established closer military cooperation with Belgrade, supplying weapon and creating a joint "humanitarian center", which many consider to be an "outpost for Russian spies". The Kremlin plans to build a similar center in Bosnia and the Republika Srpska, analysts report.
With Montenegro, the Russian did not work. Before it completed its entry into NATO, Russia was reportedly "planning and supporting an attempted coup d'état," intending to overthrow the government in Podgorica.
Through the entire regular report of the brain trust, the thesis about the impossibility of war with Russia is a common thread: “Russian invasion” into any European country on the periphery is either “impossible” or “unlikely.” The basis of such an expert opinion is the opposition of Russia to a powerful NATO bloc, which supposedly holds back the Kremlin’s inclinations. The second reason for the reluctance of the Russians to start a war is the alleged remoteness of other countries experiencing "Kremlin influence" from the Russian borders.
None of the analysts came up with another thesis: the Russians are not going to fight with anyone in Europe. The threat of "invasion" is concentrated exclusively in the Brussels brains.
In recent years, tensions between Russia and the West have increased, according to the website of the analytical company. "Stratfor". Moscow is increasingly using the methods of hybrid warfare to win and hold positions, competing for power and influence in the world, say the authors of the material.
The next report, Stratfor, explores the geopolitical context, goals and tools of the Russian strategy, as well as the steps taken by its rivals against Russia. "The shadow of a great power" covers its neighbors.
The peoples living on the outskirts of Europe (the Baltics, the Balkans, Central and Southern Europe) are “acutely aware” of a new reality, experts are convinced. States on the periphery of the continent are subject to the manipulations of Russia: the Kremlin seeks to exert pressure because of sanctions and an arms race and to sow internal discord in the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
At the same time, analysts note that the “Russian invasion” into the region is “impossible” or “unlikely”, since the states with which Russia would have to deal either belong to NATO (the Baltic countries) or are located “far enough” from Russia ( in the Balkans), or there is “both that and another” (Central and Southern Europe). However, war is “not the only tool in Moscow’s arsenal.” And "some types of hybrid warfare tactics, including political manipulations, punitive energy and economic measures, cyber attacks, disruptive propaganda and misinformation campaigns, pose a particular threat to countries located on the periphery of Europe."
1. Baltic: "Moscow methods" work.
The Baltic countries, according to experts of the brain trust, were “most vulnerable” to the “Moscow methods”. This is due, in particular, to numerous ethnic Russian communities, which account for 24% of the population of Estonia, 27% of the population of Latvia and 6% of the population of Lithuania. The political parties that serve these segments of society have achieved significant results in the parliamentary elections and thereby "provided Moscow with a certain level of influence on their governments in this process."
In addition, the Kremlin has resorted to other means of undermining local governments. One of such methods is, according to experts, “reducing energy exports”. For example, in 2006, Russia stopped oil supplies to Lithuania and set the “highest natural gas prices in Europe” for the Baltic states. “Eight years later, Moscow imposed restrictions on imports of agricultural products sent from the Baltic countries in response to the region’s support for EU sanctions against Russia for its role in the Ukrainian conflict,” analysts remind.
Along with economic measures, the Kremlin waged an aggressive cyber-information war against the Baltic countries, the Stratfor asserts. In 2007, Russian hacktivists launched mass cyber attacks against banks, ministries and the Estonian parliament.
Expecting to discredit NATO, Moscow distributed a “fake report” on the rape by German soldiers stationed in Lithuania of teenage girls. At the same time, “Russian-speaking news Vesti.lv website claimed that the military in Canada are staffed by homosexual soldiers and that such a contingent in Latvia cannot be trusted. ”
Writing such stories, analysts say, Russia "is trying to undermine the confidence of the Baltic peoples in the Western alliance."
2. Central and Southern Europe: Russians intend to split the continent in two.
Although in the countries of Central and Southern Europe there are no significant ethnic Russian communities that exist in the Baltic countries, their remoteness from Russia gives Moscow "more opportunities for political maneuver." The fact is that most of these countries "largely depend on the Russian energy industry and do not have territorial disputes with Russia, which suppresses any fears about the open invasion of the Kremlin forces". With the exception of Poland (bordering the Kaliningrad region) and Romania (which competes with Russia for influence in Moldova), the countries of Central and Southern Europe tend to adhere to a pragmatic position regarding relations with Moscow, according to Stratfor.
Moscow, however, is trying to use the pragmatic approach of these states to drive a wedge between EU members on a number of issues, including on the Union sanctions against Russia. The Kremlin used its promises to run the South Stream and 2 Nord Stream pipelines to demonstrate the fact that Russia "still has allies on the continent." In addition, Moscow is focusing on the support of "friendly governments" in Hungary, Greece and Italy, which even called for the lifting of sanctions against Russia. However, the Italian appeals disappeared in vain: the United States and Germany continue to put pressure on the EU states in order to preserve the “united front against Russia”.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin supports the interests of euro skeptics and far-right organizations in Central and Southern Europe. Here and "Five Stars" in Italy, and "Jobbik" in Hungary, and others. Moscow also "continues to launch cyber attacks" against "unfriendly governments." An example is the recent electronic attack by the Polish Foreign Ministry. In addition, there is Russian propaganda, accusing the United States of unleashing a Syrian civil war and a refugee crisis in Europe.
3. Balkans. Here the Russians are teasing with an appetizing carrot and beating it up with a stick. Traditional carrot and stick!
This region is the right place to widen the split of the West. Moscow applies a “more friendly approach” to some countries, providing “concessions, economic assistance and energy discounts.” For example, all this applies to Serbia. Moscow even established closer military cooperation with Belgrade, supplying weapon and creating a joint "humanitarian center", which many consider to be an "outpost for Russian spies". The Kremlin plans to build a similar center in Bosnia and the Republika Srpska, analysts report.
With Montenegro, the Russian did not work. Before it completed its entry into NATO, Russia was reportedly "planning and supporting an attempted coup d'état," intending to overthrow the government in Podgorica.
* * *
Through the entire regular report of the brain trust, the thesis about the impossibility of war with Russia is a common thread: “Russian invasion” into any European country on the periphery is either “impossible” or “unlikely.” The basis of such an expert opinion is the opposition of Russia to a powerful NATO bloc, which supposedly holds back the Kremlin’s inclinations. The second reason for the reluctance of the Russians to start a war is the alleged remoteness of other countries experiencing "Kremlin influence" from the Russian borders.
None of the analysts came up with another thesis: the Russians are not going to fight with anyone in Europe. The threat of "invasion" is concentrated exclusively in the Brussels brains.
Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru
- https://worldview.stratfor.com
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