2019 problem of the year
This year the transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine ends, and Moscow plans to drastically reduce or even stop the transit of gas to Europe through Ukraine. For this year, it is planned to commission the Nord Stream - 2 to Europe, to Germany, which the Ukrainian transit, 50% of Russian gas supplies to Europe, should undertake. These plans today are questionable.
The US Congress, with its recent sanction law, struck the main blow on the Nord Stream - 2, its logic is obvious. It is assumed that if the joint venture 2 is blocked, Russia will be forced to continue the transit of gas to Europe through Ukraine. Then Kiev, and Washington, at the conclusion of a new transit agreement, can set conditions and twist the hands of both Russia and Europe.
If Russia, nevertheless, stops supplying gas via the Ukrainian route, its relations with Europe are torn, broken, both sides will suffer great losses, the European gas market will open to American shale gas: it will become uncontested, despite the fact that it’s doubled more expensive than the Russian pipe. As a result, the European, most German, industry will lose competitiveness due to high energy prices and the loss of the Russian market. America eliminates / absorbs its European, albeit akin, but competitor.
If Russia agrees to continue the Ukrainian transit after 2019, our western colleagues will be completely satisfied: their euro-associated vassal will continue to be financed by Russia, while it will remain on the transit hook from Washington, Brussels and Kiev. In order to replace Russian gas with liquefied gas from America, it is also necessary to prepare the infrastructure, that is, for a while Washington needs to preserve Ukrainian gas transit to Russia.
However, Russia has a trump card: the Power of Siberia gas pipeline to China, which should be commissioned also in 2019, it can compensate Russia for the lost revenues from the cessation of gas supplies to Europe.
Apparently, Russia, and Putin personally, stands on the fact that the extension of the transit agreement with Bandera Ukraine is unacceptable for Russia, so Germany was forced to agree to the construction of a joint venture - 2. In order not to lose 50% of Russian gas. And suddenly Washington threatens Europe and Berlin for this construction with sanctions! Thus, the fate of the joint venture-2 will be the moment of truth for relations between Europe and the United States and Russia.
After all, the gas transit of Russia to Europe is something more than transit: it connects the German industry with Russia, for which the Russian market is simply “fantastic”, by definition, German businessmen. To tear Europe away from Russia, the United States needs to block Russian gas transit, which the United States wants to do, replacing Russian shale gas with Russian gas as a result. In principle, the anti-Russian law of the Congress imposes sanctions even for servicing gas pipelines, that is, it can completely block Russian transit to Europe.
These economic perturbations can have major geopolitical consequences, which are now thought of in Berlin and Brussels. Completely go under America, they, perhaps, would have agreed, in a relative. But this is not at all easy to do in reality. American dissident economist Paul Craig Roberts, among other things, the father of Reaganomics, believes that stopping energy supplies from Russia will turn into “black swans” for Europe: leading to complete destabilization with the collapse of the European Union and NATO.
In other words, an attempt to tear Germany (Europe) away from Russia could lead Europe to the same thing, to which Ukraine’s attempt by the collective West to tear it away from Russia led. In Europe, the Wolfowitz Doctrine of 1992 of the year is probably remembered, which says: The European Union is a dangerous rival for the United States and must be destroyed not only politically but also economically. This can be done just when Europe’s economic ties with Russia are broken.
Therefore, despite the transatlantic partnership, Germany is thinking about Russian gas transit. Brigitte Tsipros, the German Ministry of Economics, spoke out sharply against the sanctions of the US Congress on SP-2. Angela Stent, a professor at Georgetown University (USA), spoke on this topic in a sensational article from the American side: Europe may reconsider its anti-Russian sanctions package, which “will be good for the Kremlin news».
There is one more thing that the German press discusses: does the notorious “Chancellor Act”, which is allegedly signed by every German chancellor on his first trip to Washington, exist, about the unconditional subordination of Germany to the United States?
So, in the 2019 year, Europe may lose 50% of Russian gas supplies if SP-2 is not built, and everything goes to ensure that its construction will be disrupted. Putin does not take back his words. And perhaps 100% of gas supply, if there will be some extraordinary events, for example, in Ukraine.
Europe and Germany supported the Bandera Nazi coup d'état (!) In Kiev, their repression against the Russian-speaking population, and we must answer for this: Russia will not continue with Eurocentric policies, that is, Ukrainian gas transit, as German Foreign Minister Zigmar Gabriel hopes, and will replace him The Power of Siberia "to China.
In general, the Russian economy began to grow under sanctions, that is, it was rebalanced and rebuilt from 2014 of the year, notes Julian Rimmer, an independent analyst from London, from us, the Minsk Agreement fulfilled its function.
The US Congress, with its recent sanction law, struck the main blow on the Nord Stream - 2, its logic is obvious. It is assumed that if the joint venture 2 is blocked, Russia will be forced to continue the transit of gas to Europe through Ukraine. Then Kiev, and Washington, at the conclusion of a new transit agreement, can set conditions and twist the hands of both Russia and Europe.
If Russia, nevertheless, stops supplying gas via the Ukrainian route, its relations with Europe are torn, broken, both sides will suffer great losses, the European gas market will open to American shale gas: it will become uncontested, despite the fact that it’s doubled more expensive than the Russian pipe. As a result, the European, most German, industry will lose competitiveness due to high energy prices and the loss of the Russian market. America eliminates / absorbs its European, albeit akin, but competitor.
If Russia agrees to continue the Ukrainian transit after 2019, our western colleagues will be completely satisfied: their euro-associated vassal will continue to be financed by Russia, while it will remain on the transit hook from Washington, Brussels and Kiev. In order to replace Russian gas with liquefied gas from America, it is also necessary to prepare the infrastructure, that is, for a while Washington needs to preserve Ukrainian gas transit to Russia.
However, Russia has a trump card: the Power of Siberia gas pipeline to China, which should be commissioned also in 2019, it can compensate Russia for the lost revenues from the cessation of gas supplies to Europe.
Apparently, Russia, and Putin personally, stands on the fact that the extension of the transit agreement with Bandera Ukraine is unacceptable for Russia, so Germany was forced to agree to the construction of a joint venture - 2. In order not to lose 50% of Russian gas. And suddenly Washington threatens Europe and Berlin for this construction with sanctions! Thus, the fate of the joint venture-2 will be the moment of truth for relations between Europe and the United States and Russia.
After all, the gas transit of Russia to Europe is something more than transit: it connects the German industry with Russia, for which the Russian market is simply “fantastic”, by definition, German businessmen. To tear Europe away from Russia, the United States needs to block Russian gas transit, which the United States wants to do, replacing Russian shale gas with Russian gas as a result. In principle, the anti-Russian law of the Congress imposes sanctions even for servicing gas pipelines, that is, it can completely block Russian transit to Europe.
These economic perturbations can have major geopolitical consequences, which are now thought of in Berlin and Brussels. Completely go under America, they, perhaps, would have agreed, in a relative. But this is not at all easy to do in reality. American dissident economist Paul Craig Roberts, among other things, the father of Reaganomics, believes that stopping energy supplies from Russia will turn into “black swans” for Europe: leading to complete destabilization with the collapse of the European Union and NATO.
In other words, an attempt to tear Germany (Europe) away from Russia could lead Europe to the same thing, to which Ukraine’s attempt by the collective West to tear it away from Russia led. In Europe, the Wolfowitz Doctrine of 1992 of the year is probably remembered, which says: The European Union is a dangerous rival for the United States and must be destroyed not only politically but also economically. This can be done just when Europe’s economic ties with Russia are broken.
Therefore, despite the transatlantic partnership, Germany is thinking about Russian gas transit. Brigitte Tsipros, the German Ministry of Economics, spoke out sharply against the sanctions of the US Congress on SP-2. Angela Stent, a professor at Georgetown University (USA), spoke on this topic in a sensational article from the American side: Europe may reconsider its anti-Russian sanctions package, which “will be good for the Kremlin news».
There is one more thing that the German press discusses: does the notorious “Chancellor Act”, which is allegedly signed by every German chancellor on his first trip to Washington, exist, about the unconditional subordination of Germany to the United States?
So, in the 2019 year, Europe may lose 50% of Russian gas supplies if SP-2 is not built, and everything goes to ensure that its construction will be disrupted. Putin does not take back his words. And perhaps 100% of gas supply, if there will be some extraordinary events, for example, in Ukraine.
Europe and Germany supported the Bandera Nazi coup d'état (!) In Kiev, their repression against the Russian-speaking population, and we must answer for this: Russia will not continue with Eurocentric policies, that is, Ukrainian gas transit, as German Foreign Minister Zigmar Gabriel hopes, and will replace him The Power of Siberia "to China.
In general, the Russian economy began to grow under sanctions, that is, it was rebalanced and rebuilt from 2014 of the year, notes Julian Rimmer, an independent analyst from London, from us, the Minsk Agreement fulfilled its function.
Information