Military Review

On the state and prospects of the Belarusian military industrial complex

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On the state and prospects of the Belarusian military industrial complex



Belarusian military experts, analyzing the state of the military-industrial complex of Belarus, concluded that the army and military infrastructure of the republic are in a catastrophic situation. In 2017, 924 million rubles (about $ 500 million) will be spent on defense from the state budget. Security experts say that this money is barely enough to maintain the military-industrial complex, but not enough to rearm the army. At the same time, the July decisions of the country's leadership make it possible to forecast an increase in the military budget and the financing of the military-industrial complex.

The rearmament program of the army is postponed due to insufficient funding

A vivid example is the state of the republic's military aircraft fleet. If in the early 1990s, after the collapse of the USSR, it consisted of more than a hundred good aircraft at that time, now the country boasts several training Yak-130s that were recently purchased in Russia. Everything else is yesterday aviation.

The main combat vehicles of the Air Force of Belarus, MiG-29 and Su-27, it was decided to replace 2 a year ago. One Russian Su-30 costs $ 30 million, there are no funds even for a squadron set in the budget, therefore, plans for transition to Su-30 were postponed indefinitely.

The current head of the Gosvoenproma of Belarus, Major General Oleg Dvigalev, who previously was the commander of the air force and air defense forces of the republic’s armed forces, in February 2017 of the year clarified that the purchase of Su-30 is planned to be completed before the end of 2020, while the military fleet is coping with combat duty, and with the preparation of flight personnel. (Note: O. Dvigalev was appointed to the new position of 18.07.2017 of the year. According to military observer A. Alesin, his appointment shows the vector of development of the military-industrial complex of Belarus: there will be a bias towards the development and improvement of anti-aircraft missile systems, aircrafts.)

In April 2017 of the year during the meeting of A. Lukashenko with V. Putin in St. Petersburg the question of buying Su-30 for 50% of their value was raised again, but the deal has not yet taken place.



70% of Belarusian MIC products are exported

Information about how much the republic’s budget receives from this activity is closed; according to experts, about $ 300 million per year. Basically Belarus sells old stocks.

For comparison. In 1998-2001 Belarus has sold weapons $ 1 billion. and took on this indicator 11th place in the world. In 2005, the republic was among the twenty most active arms sellers. Officially confirmed sales of aircraft, helicopters, armored personnel carriers, tanks and other equipment in Iran, Sudan, Cote d'Ivoire, Peru, Uganda.

Over the past 12 years, the structure of the Belarusian arms export has changed. In the world arms market, the republic began to specialize in the supply of automated control systems for air defense and aviation; guidance systems for tanks and artillery. In addition, currently Belarus is actively engaged in the modernization of military equipment, sells dual-use technology.



Military experts on the defense budget of Belarus

The Belarusian journalist, economic and military observer A. Alesin confirms that no more than 1% of the country's total budget is spent on defense. There has been no real increase in spending on these goals in recent 3 years. The increase shown by the state is, first of all, “leaps of the Belarusian ruble against the dollar”. The budget "increased" within inflation.

What then does the country export? Perhaps, “the so-called surplus military equipment: what remains of the USSR; ammunition that has expired; other military property; individually old tanks; decommissioned Su-24, possibly Su-27 ".

At the same time, the expert believes that the $ 300 million sounded does not include the income from trading in various electronic systems, electronic intelligence, radars, software, drones, etc. In fact, sales revenue can reach $ 1 billion.

How much is spent on rearmament is unknown. Most of it goes to the MIC's own needs: wages, taxes, and so on.

The head of the Belarus Security Blog analytical project, Andrei Porotnikov, believes that the funds allocated by the budget for defense are not even enough to properly maintain the personnel of the armed forces, not to mention the purchase of new military equipment and training of army personnel. In his opinion, the size of the country's defense budget should be increased at least to 3% of GDP. This can be done through the redistribution of budget expenditures and by combining all extra-budgetary funds.



Prospects for increasing financing of the Belarusian military industrial complex

Already in July this year. On the websites of Belarusian analytical centers, new expert references have appeared, describing a number of trends: the growing influence of the Belarussian army through new personnel appointments; improvement of the power unit management system by the top political leadership of the country; the need for an early resolution of the problem of rational use of the resources of the military-industrial complex, security and defense of Belarus. Separate line passed messages about the expansion of security cooperation with China.

Thus, 25.07.2017 was signed between the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus and the Ministry of Public Security of the People’s Republic of China of a letter of intent to expand cooperation in the fight against terrorism. Interaction involves the exchange of information, joint operations and the provision of technical assistance from China.

President of Belarus A. Lukashenko 27.07.2017 at a meeting with the leadership of the State Secretariat of the Security Council indicated the need to optimize the management system of the country's power unit, the development of a new mechanism for the work of the head of state with the State Secretariat of the Security Council and the security agencies. During the 2017 of the year, the maximum number and amount of funding for each agency should be determined, and areas of work should be clarified. It is assumed that the leadership of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Ministry of Defense will be able to redistribute material and human resources, following current priorities.

According to experts, this is due to the changed diplomatic strategy of the Belarusian authorities towards Russia. Russia is no longer viewed as a guarantor of internal stability and external security of the republic, therefore, it is necessary to look for new points of support in the sphere of internal and external security. The expansion of security cooperation with China is one of the manifestations of a new foreign policy strategy.



The fact that the influence of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus is growing indicates an increase in the share of expenditures in the state budget of the country for the needs of the military-industrial complex.

17.07.2017 was passed the law “On approval of the report on the execution of the republican budget for 2016 year”. Expenditures on the item “Defense and Armed Forces” were initially approved in the amount of 834,6 million Belarusian rubles, then the indicator was updated to 988,6 million, and in total for the year almost 983 million was used (In the open access document, on the basis of which the Defense Ministry Received additional funding, no.)

Experts suggested where additional funding was directed. In their opinion, this is the development of the MLRS "Polonez" in terms of increasing the range to 300 km and the integration of the Chinese Tactical Missile M-20 into the armament complex, including the supply of armament to the troops; modernization of the tank fleet, including to the level of T-72B3 by the forces of the Russian Uralvagonzavod; purchase of vehicles, including armored vehicles "Caiman", V-1, CS / VN3 "Dragon"; the acquisition of an additional batch of unmanned aerial complexes for various purposes, as well as new communications technology, including the Belintersat satellite system.

In addition, commenting on the appointment of Major-General Oleg Dvigalev as chairman of the State Military Industrial Committee, the experts concluded that the status of the GVPK was downgraded and that it was directly subordinate to the Ministry of Defense. The President of Belarus has decided to oblige the GVPK to provide the army with requests improve the quality, reduce the cost of production and comply with the deadlines for project execution



Thus, the Belarusian analytical centers conclude that for the first time in 26 years, there were prospects for the resumption of funding for the military-industrial complex in the proper amount. This is due to the security crisis in Eastern Europe and the change in the priority of threats to the national security of Belarus from domestic and socio-economic to external.
Author:
Photos used:
State Military-Industrial Committee of the Republic of Belarus http://www.vpk.gov.by
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  1. cedar
    cedar 9 August 2017 05: 59
    +3
    Belarusians have nowhere to go, it’s hot ...
    We have situevina no better ...
    There is money, there is no money .. but if "You want peace, prepare for war."
  2. midshipman
    midshipman 9 August 2017 07: 59
    +7
    Of the 9 enterprises of the military-industrial complex subordinate to me in Belarus (MCI of the USSR 1979-1989), practically all do not work. Here is the result of the economic reforms of the labeled and the Alkash. I have the honor.
    1. Monarchist
      Monarchist 9 August 2017 11: 37
      +1
      Michman, that our economic reforms have turned out to be one-sided, I know, but in this case WHY the economy of Belarus is lame? After all, they have a Soviet model?
      1. Pancir026
        Pancir026 9 August 2017 11: 52
        +1
        Quote: Monarchist
        that our economic reforms turned out to be one-sided

        So you realize that the so-called liberal reforms have failed in Russia? How else to explain that the government is guided in its forecasts by the level of development of 1990?
        As for the Republic of Belarus, and answer your own question, is the resource base of the Republic of Belarus comparable with the Russian Federation? And change their places, the answer will be much more obvious. Who would benefit.
        And this is difficult to dispute, even if the data is slightly outdated. Http: //infoabad.com/forum/thread565.html
        Overall
        http://ros-sea-ru.livejournal.com/1418960.html
        Well, as a demonstration, an article with VO.
        "..... after all, there is no more eloquent evidence of the advantages of the Soviet economy over the modern Russian than the figures for industrial production."
        https://topwar.ru/9659-rf-protiv-rsfsr-nekotorye-
        promyshlennye-pokazateli.html
        1. Astoria
          Astoria 9 August 2017 12: 41
          +5
          There was a lot of good in the USSR, but whether it was inherited that a good Republic of Belarus (apart from the advanced industry in 1990 and lack of debt) is a big question.

          After all, they have a Soviet model?
          - Of course it does, tens of billions of dollars of subsidies from the Russian Federation + tens of billions of dollars of debt, and the economy as it was a black hole, so it remains. The model works, and aggregating all its shortcomings: nepotism, corruption, mismanagement, disregard for the quality of the goods produced, cross-subsidization of everything and everything, etc. etc.

          The resource base has nothing to do with it: oil refining in Belarus accounts for 13% of industry and 17% of exports, and at the same time it is unprofitable, another 1,2 billion dollars are needed

          - The woodworking industry is in the red - ate 1 billion euros and still wants to eat.

          - The cement industry is in the red - ate $ 0,5 billion and still wants to eat, revenue in 16 is three times less than 12.

          - Engineering, another black hole, maz already produces cars one and a half times less than factory workers - you need another 1,5 billion dollars.

          - Agriculture invested 8,5 billion. dollars - no one has yet seen a profit.
    2. prosto_rgb
      prosto_rgb 10 August 2017 19: 42
      +2
      Quote: midshipman
      Of the 9 enterprises of the military-industrial complex subordinate to me in Belarus (MCI of the USSR 1979-1989), practically all do not work.

      so "rags manager" a famous specialist to twist cows tails
      Well, I brought the enterprises to bankruptcy and drank metal through appointments to the posts of directors and deputies of the same strong business executives
  3. Anton Yu
    Anton Yu 9 August 2017 09: 12
    +6
    Nothing has been written about cooperation with the military-industrial complex of Ukraine, about the repair of military equipment and the sale of weapons, which then kill the Russians in the Donbass.
    1. Ronald Reagan
      Ronald Reagan 9 August 2017 19: 42
      0
      Nothing personal, it's just business.
    2. prosto_rgb
      prosto_rgb 10 August 2017 19: 44
      0
      Quote: Anton Yu
      Russian in the Donbass.

      there are no Russians there, only Ukrainians
      and respected partner Peter Alekseevich
      enough already to throw on the fan.
  4. Astoria
    Astoria 9 August 2017 09: 17
    +5
    The article is agitation. Belarus pays 6 times more in debt than it spends on the army. Given that debts are growing, Professor Vasiliev is overly optimistic.

    The ratio of government debt as a percentage of GDP of Belarus reached a historic maximum.


    But it’s for the better, the competition is less, and the AHL is not eternal, to whom then this weapon will fall into the hands.
    1. prosto_rgb
      prosto_rgb 10 August 2017 19: 46
      +1
      "Strong owners" are great debt collection specialists
      only in the first half of the year the external state debt of the Republic of Belarus grew by 1%
  5. Monarchist
    Monarchist 9 August 2017 11: 55
    +3
    If they were in 11th place in the ranking of arms dealers, and this is a very high position, then they must have good income. If a large part goes to their needs "salaries, taxes" they should winter, but it seems to me that there are bugs dreamers, or rather "money dealers"
  6. APASUS
    APASUS 9 August 2017 12: 56
    0
    At the expense of the rearmament of the army of the Republic of Belarus. It is our people who behave strangely. You can support fraternal Belarus and save money if that is necessary, but here in the West they are not shy to ask for political concessions, but ours are silent. We don’t like the supply of arms to Ukraine, because it’s easy you can discuss, we give you planes for half the price and you turn off your activities in Ukraine. But father is already aware of how the weak army ends
    1. Astoria
      Astoria 9 August 2017 13: 17
      +4
      Ask yourself: Why arm those who can hardly feed Belarus? wink
      1. APASUS
        APASUS 9 August 2017 14: 26
        +2
        Quote: Astoria
        Ask yourself: Why arm those who can hardly feed Belarus? wink

        Here, please, in more detail, whom can this feed RB?
        1. Astoria
          Astoria 9 August 2017 16: 33
          +2
          The head of the Belarus Security Blog analytical project, Andrei Porotnikov, believes that the funds allocated by the budget for defense are not even enough to properly maintain the personnel of the armed forces, not to mention the purchase of new military equipment and training of army personnel. In his opinion, the size of the country's defense budget should be increased at least to 3% of GDP. This can be done through the redistribution of budget expenditures and by combining all extra-budgetary funds.
  7. Panzermensch
    Panzermensch 9 August 2017 13: 17
    +4
    And why the Russian military-industrial complex of Belarus? She is vitally not interested in its existence, because Belarus is primarily a sales market. Belarus cannot have any military-industrial complex except Russia.
  8. Tolik_74
    Tolik_74 9 August 2017 13: 56
    +5
    There are no defense industry enterprises in Belarus, and those that work are miserable jerks inherited from the USSR. And for 1 billion. $ They still sold Soviet weapons to the same Ukraine, more precisely to Bandera
  9. complete zero
    complete zero 11 August 2017 00: 49
    +3
    Quote: Monarchist
    Michman, that our economic reforms have turned out to be one-sided, I know, but in this case WHY the economy of Belarus is lame? After all, they have a Soviet model?

    nor what models (of other economies) in the territory of the former USSR DO NOT WORK and will NEVER work .. except for the Soviet one (it was necessary to reform it and not h.r.r.i.t.) following the example of the same China
  10. erofich
    erofich 15 August 2017 14: 33
    +1
    And why should Belarusians be helped? They are independent! Crimea is not recognized, Ossetia, too, by the way. They want to poke two queens like those gentle calves. And in CE, Europe, and Russia. Was in the winter at home. Privatization, as it were, was appointed on the collective farm. They are selling shares, or rather they are campaigning to vote for them, and a price of 500 green shares is set. Who wants to can buy more. So the salary is now at the level of 200 green and from this you need to pay everything, for electricity, gas, etc., and so on. Is there a brain or not? And on the collective farm there are no more people left, the villages are dying. One dairy complex remained at the expense of its collective farm. Oh!