Military Review

Elections in Iran: A Bitter Pill for the West

18
Elections in Iran: A Bitter Pill for the WestObviously, the first week of March for the West was truly difficult. The election results in two countries at once, to which the United States has increased and clearly unhealthy attention, turned out to be disappointing for Washington, to say the least. The hopes of the White House, that in Russia and Iran everything will be decided by itself, without the need to continue financing opposition forces and increasing the hole in their own budget, crumbled like a house of cards.

Against the background of the presidential campaign in Russia, elections to the Iranian parliament, which took place on March 2, remained in the shadows for most Russians. However, unlike our elections, the results of the Iranian will were far from being so predictable. After the counting of votes by the Iranian counterpart of the Russian CEC, it turned out that now most of the seats in the Mejlis will belong to conservative forces: from moderate to very hard. If local conservatives make a single bloc, then in the Iranian parliament, the country's religious leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, will enlist the support of three-quarters of parliamentarians. This can only mean one thing that today the Iranian majority unconditionally supports the course proposed by Ali Khamenei at one time. And this course, obviously, is aimed at continuing the implementation of the ideas of the Islamic revolution and in no way aims at any rapprochement with the West. However, it is necessary to slightly open the veil of secrecy of the Iranian elections and say that, in fact, only the conservatives participated in them. What is the choice, as the ODIHR would say? And the fact that the choice of Iranians had to do not so much in the ballots, but in whether to go to this election or stay at home.

The reformist forces called on Iranian citizens to boycott the elections, since, according to supporters of the current head of state, they could pass under pressure from political forces with a particular religious bias - a transparent hint of pressure from Khamenei. After the words of the Iranian reformist parties appeared that the boycott of the elections recognized the desire of ordinary Iranians to take the path of reform, the "partners" in the West came to life. By the way, it was precisely at this time that the report of the American intelligence that Iran had no nuclear weapons made a lot of noise weapons. It is possible that the Americans hoped that the appeals of the supporters of Ahmadinejad, a man whom in the United States today is considered to be almost or not the main enemy, can in a fanciful way give an impetus to the growth of protest moods in Iran. But the miracle for Washington did not happen. The people of Iran did not elect elections only by boycotting, but on the contrary: turnout exceeded all expectations of conservative parties and led Ahmadinejad to some confusion. This was the choice - 64% of Iranian citizens who have the right to vote, came to the polls.

The results of the Iranian will showed that the current Iranian president suffered a real fiasco. However, the political structure of Iran is quite bizarre, and the defeat of supporters of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad does not at all mean that the Iranian foreign policy will somehow change. Today, there is no such political force in the country that would oppose itself to values ​​generally accepted in Iran and focused on foreign development models. Moreover, the deputies of the Iranian Mejlis do not have the right to influence foreign state policy, nor the development or, respectively, lack of development of a nuclear program.
It turns out that the conservatives won, but so far the levers of power are still with the current president. Only now Ahmadinejad obviously cannot count on mass support.

Due to the fact that the new Iranian parliament will be conservative in its mass, we should also expect that the next Iranian president may take an even tougher stance towards the United States than the one that Ahmadinejad is occupying today. Yes, the Iranian choice, it is this: either it’s tough with the West, or even tougher - there’s no third option yet. This is what worries the West.

Therefore, the decline of Ahmadinejad, which, by definition, should have impressed the European Union, the United States and, especially, Israel, these states are obviously not impressive. In this regard, it can be assumed that in the near future, American intelligence may suddenly reconsider its findings about the absence of nuclear weapons from the Islamic Republic, and the new Iranian porridge will brew in a large geopolitical pot. But the main thing for today's Iran is not even that. The main thing is that, against the background of the distant aggravation of relations between Ahmadinejad and Khamenei, a certain third force suddenly appeared, which has a tendency to “Orangeism” and can be generously funded from outside to solve its narrow problems of “democratization” of the country.
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  1. Sergh
    Sergh 9 March 2012 09: 10
    +14
    It is necessary to try hard for the oranoids to stir up a small rebellion in Iran, although it is unlikely that they will stumble and hang.
    1. esaul
      esaul 9 March 2012 09: 54
      +11
      Salute, Serea. They have time (about a year) to stir up. From today's Internet it became known that the USs promised Israel the supply of arms during this period and one of the main articles is the supply of long-range tanker aircraft and anti-bunker bombs. So, while these deliveries last, Iran has time to form an effective defense. Time works for Iran. And about the rebellion - you're right - it will not work in Iran.
      1. Civil
        Civil 9 March 2012 10: 19
        +6
        Iran is being shaken from all sides, Syria is being plunged into a civil war, Azerbaijan is claiming territorial claims and is preparing to provide bases in case of war, Kurds are getting help from Iraq .... Israel, Saudis, Qatar, Georgia, Jordan, Turkey are ready to attack on the first order from Washington

        The UAE, Pakistan, and Turkmenistan are hostile to neutrality for various reasons.

        So soon the denouement, politically everything is ready

        the logic of action is such that the next country will be territory b. THE USSR.
      2. older
        older 9 March 2012 16: 39
        +3
        Kill, but I don’t understand why ours, provided DO NOT START A WAR IN IRAN FOR A YEAR, do not deliver at least with 300пму2 is as much as Iran can pay? Well, and accordingly other weapons ... wink They do not start, and Izrail does not start. Parity, EPT ....
  2. aironfirst
    aironfirst 9 March 2012 09: 17
    +4
    Yes, the Iranian choice, it is this: either tough with the West, or even tougher - a third has not yet been given.

    It turns out that for the US further development of the situation in Iran has two options: either "bad" or "even worse"; which in itself is encouraging. Well, wait and see.
  3. lars
    lars 9 March 2012 09: 44
    +2
    "...the desire of ordinary Iranians to follow the path of reform..." recourse laughing
    what a familiar song drinks
  4. raptor_fallout
    raptor_fallout 9 March 2012 10: 03
    +4
    Quote: aironfirst
    It turns out that for the US further development of the situation in Iran has two options: either "bad" or "even worse"; which in itself is encouraging. Well, wait and see.

    The more time passes, the better for us and especially for Iran.
  5. Норд
    Норд 9 March 2012 10: 23
    +6
    Quote: "But no miracle happened for Washington."
    Such grown-up uncles, but believe in miracles. As a result, instead of "evil" Ahmadinejad, they got "very evil" Khamenei. Surprise!
  6. jar0512rus
    jar0512rus 9 March 2012 11: 46
    +8
    I quote "" After the words of the Iranian reformist parties appeared that the boycott of the elections recognizes the desire of ordinary Iranians to follow the path of reforms, "partners" in the West revived "" !!!

    In the case of Americans, I generally look at such statements !!!! True, I smtryu they stopped taking them lately !!! But if their "democracy" returns to them in the same form in which they carry it to the WORLD, America will wash away with burning tears, but who will regret it then !!! For that to dance on the ruins of "great democracy" "there is a great many !!!
    1. Neighbor
      Neighbor 9 March 2012 11: 49
      +4
      Your words - yes God would be in the ears !!! drinks
    2. porka89
      porka89 10 March 2012 01: 25
      +1
      I don’t know how to dance, but I think that's enough to visit these ruins.
  7. Rodver
    Rodver 9 March 2012 12: 21
    +3
    Most importantly, Iran remains Iran. And no matter how it shakes the Western liberal world, Iran, both internally and externally, will not succeed, because the people. religion and leadership are still united.
  8. VictoRUS123
    VictoRUS123 9 March 2012 13: 05
    +5
    Igor91 Today, 11:27
    In the case of Americans, I generally look at such statements !!!! That's right to the point. Americans around the world bring only grief and suffering to the peoples, work with Alqaida, they also fight zealously, distribute humanitarian aid to the victims of their diabolical deeds in front of the whole World. ... For the Amer, this is a blow to the heart.
  9. 755962
    755962 9 March 2012 16: 10
    +1
    In the event of a crushing defeat of the Ahmadinejad clan, Khamenei can completely abolish the institution of the presidency, which gives him only a headache. Khamenei has been making such hints for a long time.
    1. lars
      lars 9 March 2012 19: 26
      0
      There is another question. Khamenei is a wise wolf! He can do this by distracting the amers, like - our guys are also not all right in their relations with the secular authorities, there is hope to play this card, but if that - I said that he does something wrong. But in fact, only time will tell. But this is also an instruction request
  10. APASUS
    APASUS 9 March 2012 18: 09
    +3
    Yes, the Iranian choice, it is like this: either with the West it is tough, or even tougher - a third has not yet been given

    As I understand it, the USA does not leave Iran any other choice, either lie under the USA or be an adversary !!!
  11. duchy
    duchy 9 March 2012 19: 05
    +3
    I can imagine what squeal the "democratically world" will raise if Iran buys about 1000 sea containers from Russia and disperses them throughout its territory and along the coast of the Gulf. To be more convincing, he will drive the trailer from place to place. You certainly understand what this is about.
  12. Kievan
    Kievan 9 March 2012 22: 28
    0
    It would be interesting to read what the Iranians write about the Russian Federation and Russian in their forums. Does anyone know the addresses of Iranian patriotic forums? Google translator translates from Iranian?
  13. Rostam
    Rostam 10 March 2012 21: 43
    +4
    Kievan
    actually, our language is Farsi (or Persian) Iranians are very positive towards Russian, though we have opp (green) who have been driven underground so far. When they held demonstrations, they screamed against Russia, but their slogans come from the State Department and the people understand this .And generally come better and take a look at our country for 2 weeks, give a visa to the airport upon arrival in Tehran.
    Iranian Rostam