Military Review

Donald Trump wins in Mosul

26
Iraqi Prime Minister al-Abadi congratulated the troops on the liberation of Mosul. The battles involved Iraqis, Kurds, Shiite militias, Arab Sunni troops. Air support provided aviation US-led coalitions. In addition, the Iraqi command was advised by US military advisers. According to experts, the defeat of militants in Mosul and the surrounding area should be recognized as a victory for D. Trump.




Analysis of the long war with the “Islamic State” (prohibited in the Russian Federation), entrenched in the Iraqi city of Mosul, allows us to identify several main stages of confrontation with terrorists and make assumptions about the future of the fight against militants in the region.

1. Announced a great victory.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi congratulated the troops on the liberation of Mosul from the militants of the extremist Islamic State group. "The commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Haider Al-Abadi, arrived in the liberated city of Mosul and congratulated the heroic fighters and the Iraqi people on a great victory," the official representative’s spokesman said. "BBC".

The militants had been in command in Mosul long ago: the city was captured in the summer of 2014, and made the “second capital” of the so-called caliphate. The Iraqi army, militia and coalition forces entered the confrontation with terrorists in October last year.

2. The price of victory.

Back in 2016, experts predicted the victory of the army and coalition, which will be achieved in a bloody hard struggle. And so it happened: the militants of the IG desperately resisted, and the Iraqi troops suffered serious losses. In addition, a huge number of civilians died. About a million citizens left their homes.

In Mosul, not only houses were destroyed, but also historical building. A significant part of the city is turned into ruins. There are two reasons for the total destruction: 1) for nine months the city was subjected to air raids and bombing by coalition forces; 2) the Islamists themselves previously destroyed a number of historical buildings, including a museum with exhibits of ancient history and the Al-Nuri mosque. However, terrorists deny the destruction of the mosque and point to the American coalition.

There is nothing to breathe on the streets of Mosul, there is no water and electricity in the city. The UN is talking about a humanitarian crisis. United Nations experts estimated the base city recovery in 700 million dollars (also known in the estimate in 1 billion dollars).

“We need to remember that, both in the Mosul region and in other parts of the country, there are vast territories that were literally devastated during this conflict,” the TV channel said "Euronews" a resident of Melanie Markham. “So, if we talk about restoration, we need funds not only for Mosul, but also for all the surrounding areas, there are villages where tens, hundreds, thousands of people lived before, and now they are completely empty.”

3. Violations in the field of humanitarian rights.

The human rights organization Amnesty International believes that the Iraqi army and its coalition allies led by the United States violated international humanitarian law. Moreover, some of the violations can be equated to war crimes.

The report by Amnesty International, which quotes radio "Freedom"It also speaks of violations of humanitarian law by field commanders of the Islamic State. One of these violations, experts considered the use of civilians as human shields.

4. In Iraqi land is a holiday.

Despite the destruction and the difficult humanitarian situation, many residents of the city celebrate the victory and the liberation of the city from the domination of terrorists. Rejoice residents of all of Iraq.

According to Sana Ibrahim, a resident of Basra, “all honest people celebrate victory. If God helps us, we will get rid of not only the militants of the IG, but also those corrupt politicians who helped create the group. We took Mosul. And we will destroy the "IG".

Mahmoud Ahmed, a resident of Baghdad, told the correspondent "Euronews": “See for yourself how happy people are. We pray to Almighty Allah so that peace, tranquility and security will finally prevail in our land. We have suffered a lot in recent years, we hope that the residents of Mosul who returned to their homes sooner or later will get better. ”

5. To a complete victory over the "IG" far.

Nonetheless, it’s too early to talk about a complete victory over IG in Iraq. Rather, we should talk about the loss of part of the territory of the militants. Many analysts, both Russian and foreign, believe that even after the likely release of the “first capital” of IG, the Syrian Raqqa, the war on terrorists will not end. After the territorial split of the “caliphate” with the “state” of the Islamists, it will probably be over, but this does not at all mean that the “IS” will cease its bloody activities. Many militants under the guise of refugees have already successfully moved to Europe, where they organize terrorist attacks, frightening the government and the population. After the defeat in Iraq and Syria, IG can become something like an expanded version of Al-Qaida (banned in the Russian Federation) —a network structure leading an underground war against the infidels around the world. The effectiveness of the actions of the special services against such structures, especially lone militants recruited by radicals and brought up on Islamist propaganda, is not high enough.

Militants actively “broadcast” on the Internet using their “media” and social networks.

According to a study by George Washington University and the International Center to Counter Terrorism, the Islamic State militants have launched fifty-one attacks in Europe and North America since June 2014. Sixty-five radicals participated in the attacks. Of these, a smaller part received combat experience in Iraq and Syria - only twelve people.

There is no doubt that terrorists will use the global information space to recruit and train potential supporters in the future.

6. What's next?

The terrorists still hold the town of Tal-Afar to the west of Mosul, the city of Ana, part of the Rutba districts and the border crossing Kaim in Anbar, part of the western province of Rutba, the city of Khavija, and also around 500 villages in Kirkuk. Kurdish Pesmerga commanders reported Gazeta.Ruthat the operation for the liberation of Mosul should have preceded the release of Haviji. According to the representative of the Peshmerga, Major Sartip Othman, the Iraqi command rejected the offensive.

Now, according to representatives of the Peshmerga, after Mosul, the authorities intend to launch operations against IG in Tal Afar and in Anbar province. Havija will be next. Representatives of the international coalition made it clear to the Kurds that Havija is not the primary goal.

The Kurds, however, are convinced that the operation to free Hawiji cannot be postponed: the presence of militants here poses a danger to Kirkuk, the administrative center of the province, and to all of Iraq.

7. There will be no revenge!

In Iraq, there are areas controlled by "IG". Anton Mardasov, head of the Department of Studies of Middle East Conflicts at the Institute of Innovative Development, an expert of the Russian Council on International Affairs, believes that the revenge of the terrorists will not happen.

"About the revenge of" IG "in the short term, there is no question," he said Gazeta.Ru. - Nevertheless, the caliphate has a presence in many provinces, including Baghdad - in the area of ​​the so-called Baghdad belt, and acts of terrorism in the capital are arranged not only by suicide bombers disguised as traffickers, but also by cars filled with explosives that can be avoided numerous checkpoints. The reason: corruption and the use of expensive cars, which often do not check. "

8. Split the state into parts?

Almost 20% of the Iraqi population, the Kurds, are “going out” together with the whole of Northern Iraq. In a few months, there will be a referendum on independence, recalls in the journal "Expert" analyst Gevorg Mirzayan.

By the way, the following 20% of the population can contribute to the division of Iraq - Sunnis who have long been unhappy with the rule of the Shiite majority.

9. Donald Trump wins.

The capture of Mosul is the most important foreign policy victory of Donald Trump, and above all in the image plan, G. Mirzayan believes. “The American president promised to defeat IG - and now he took one of the two capitals of the group,” the analyst recalls.

In addition, the US has strengthened its position in Syria: Trump is not going to leave this country like Obama. We are already talking about creating new American bases. It is very likely that they will appear in Kurdistan and in the Sunni areas of Iraq (in the same Mosul).

* * *


In a rather short period of time, Donald Trump did what Barack Obama wrote down to curbing his victories in the squeaky museum. The operation to free Mosul, we recall, was initiated by the previous US administration, but it was fully carried out by the Trump team.

Unlike Barack Obama, the new president expects to increase US influence in the Middle East and significantly weaken Iran’s influence. The military success of the coalition in Mosul, the conclusion of a multibillion-dollar deal with Saudi Arabia, and the obvious course towards overthrowing Assad in Syria, which both the Saudis and other partners of Washington in the region fully endorse, contribute to this. New military bases in Iraq will give the same Iran, an ally of Assad, an unequivocal signal: the Americans are here, and they are not asleep.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
Photos used:
Ahmad Al-Rubaye / AFP / Scanpix / LETA
26 comments
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  1. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 12 July 2017 08: 25
    +3
    What time! It turns out that the States are able to fight! (This is me to our haters).
    1. siberalt
      siberalt 12 July 2017 08: 48
      +5
      The fact that in Mosul is really a humanitarian catastrophe does not count. The main thing is that Trump did what Obama could not - to knock out terrorists from one separate city taken with the help of a coalition from as many as 63 states in just less than a year. belay
      1. vladimirvn
        vladimirvn 12 July 2017 08: 50
        +7
        I will not write about our coalition allies. And in Aleppo there was no humanitarian catastrophe. And we didn’t take Palmyra twice.
      2. krops777
        krops777 12 July 2017 15: 53
        0
        Oh, that in Mosul really humanitarian disaster does not count. The main thing is that Trump did what Obama could not - to knock out terrorists from one separate city taken with the help of a coalition from as many as 63 states in just less than a year.


        Moreover, this so-called coalition of civilians laid more than the terrorists themselves.
        1. Ararat
          Ararat 12 July 2017 20: 08
          +3
          In urban battles, ALWAYS more civilians die than soldiers.
    2. vovanpain
      vovanpain 12 July 2017 11: 48
      +4
      Quote: vladimirvn
      What time! It turns out that the States are able to fight!

      Dollar and from the air.
      The battles involved Iraqis, Kurds, Shiite militias, Arab Sunni troops. Air support was provided by coalition aviation led by the United States. In addition, the Iraqi command was advised by US military advisers.

      Read carefully dear. laughing
      According to experts, the defeat of the militants in Mosul and the surrounding area should be recognized as a victory for D. Trump.

      Yes for God's sake let them defeat someone laughing Bush the cowboy "defeated" the Taliban in the same way, Obama "Al Qaeda", well, let this defeat ISIS, only the vanquished do not know about it. wassat
      1. Ararat
        Ararat 12 July 2017 20: 12
        +1
        From the point of view of the article, you are only right in aviation, and from the point of view of facts, you are not right. The ILC supports the Iraqis with mortars and artillery and from the air. The snipers are supported by the promotion, SEALS and MARSOC working together with the MTR of Iraq and the Kurds, Navy doctors provide medical assistance to both civilian and military.
        1. Nyrobsky
          Nyrobsky 12 July 2017 21: 44
          +5
          Quote: Ararat
          From the point of view of the article, you are only right in aviation, and from the point of view of facts, you are not right. The ILC supports the Iraqis with mortars and artillery and from the air. The snipers are supported by the promotion, SEALS and MARSOC working together with the MTR of Iraq and the Kurds, Navy doctors provide medical assistance to both civilian and military.

          Ararat, everything in this world is relative ..... Now, if the United States hadn’t entered Iraq with a test tube of washing powder, and, under a far-fetched pretext, had not hanged Hussein, then there would have been no need to defeat ISIS. Since the US invasion, about a million residents have died in Iraq, BUT !!!!! there was a substitution of concepts and the root cause of all the troubles of the Iraqi people receded into the background, now the people CELEBRATE the victory of the invaders over the terrorists, whom they are! and spawned (nonsense). At the same time, Iraq is bursting at the seams and falling apart as a result of the support of the Kurds by the Americans, which is in contradiction with Turkey. You say that the Americans are well done ... But what kind of vegetable are they from? They provided support, the AHA - the same bloody “support” now sprinkles with two spoons Libyans and Syrians, and dill on the way ...
          1. Ararat
            Ararat 13 July 2017 03: 11
            +1
            I write what is happening at the moment and not what happened in 2003 (14 years ago!) That we are guilty of causing this chaos is not a secret, but it’s not right to say that the USA does nothing
    3. datur
      datur 13 July 2017 00: 21
      0
      [quote = vladimirvn] In what! It turns out that the States are able to fight! (This is me to our haters) .--- since the Americans? and even better !!! wink
  2. aszzz888
    aszzz888 12 July 2017 08: 26
    +1
    United Nations experts have estimated the restoration of the city at $ 700 million.

    ... something is not enough figure, the city was razed to the ground and only 700 lyam? ... maybe lards?
    1. Azim77
      Azim77 12 July 2017 08: 36
      +2
      Well, this is not some European, let alone American city. Just one of the eastern cities. They will say that 700 million is enough and that, most of this amount has already been "invested" in the form of dropped bombs and missiles.
    2. Mart
      12 July 2017 09: 02
      +3
      Quote: aszzz888
      can lard?

      700 million valuation - here. Another estimate, in 1 billion dollars, is here. Experts from the UN do not name the sum more than one billion dollars.
      1. aszzz888
        aszzz888 12 July 2017 10: 27
        +2
        Hello Oleg!
        Thanks for the detailed clarification. wink
  3. Astoria
    Astoria 12 July 2017 08: 42
    +2
    A city in which more than a million people lived before the assault, and in 11, 1,5 million people. - recover for just $ 700 million laughing although if you put up tents for the money, that should be enough.

    This is a Sunni region, Shiites will hammer a bolt for restoration, and in a couple of years a new uprising will rise.
    1. St Petrov
      St Petrov 12 July 2017 17: 44
      0
      This is a Sunni region, Shiites will hammer a bolt for restoration, and in a couple of years a new uprising will rise.


      for nefig. and they will live in a brown substance - that is where they are dear.

      they didn’t want to expel the infidels themselves - Shiites came with the Kurds and with the coalition - they got the destroyed city.

      for others, to give a head to raise one’s lesson on their land.

      1. Astoria
        Astoria 13 July 2017 08: 09
        0
        Well, for Sunnis, barmalei are not infidels.
  4. Flinky
    Flinky 12 July 2017 09: 25
    0
    This is not a victory. Because the barmalei are not destroyed, but stupidly squeezed to the east of Syria.
    1. Astoria
      Astoria 12 July 2017 10: 14
      0
      There’s just nothing to defend
  5. iouris
    iouris 12 July 2017 14: 38
    +2
    The question is posed incorrectly. Subject of research: what exactly (in dollars) the United States and Trump personally won from the victory in Mosul, and what the other parties to the conflict lost.
    1. aybolyt678
      aybolyt678 12 July 2017 15: 16
      0
      Quote: iouris
      Subject of research: what exactly (in dollars) the USA won

      they won the opportunity to manage the military conflict. Scold them for it or praise, the true goal is only that the tension will be maintained and warmed up. Entire countries will be credited for many years to come, and the so-called pieces of paper - dollars will receive here their material support in the form of cheap oil.
  6. Altona
    Altona 12 July 2017 16: 45
    +2

    Mosul under the bloody Saddam Hussein and 14 years later, after Trump's victory over ISIS and the establishment of democracy.
    1. stalkerwalker
      stalkerwalker 12 July 2017 16: 51
      +3
      Quote: Altona
      Mosul under the bloody Saddam Hussein and 14 years later, after Trump's victory over ISIS and the establishment of democracy.

      So then there is the blue dream of an exceptional nation of comrades. Institute of regression in earthly realities (according to Lukyanenko).
  7. Guest171-Again
    Guest171-Again 13 July 2017 00: 41
    0
    He went, saw, won. Alexander Adolfovich Napoleon. Watch and assimilate ..
  8. samarin1969
    samarin1969 13 July 2017 07: 55
    0
    Iran’s influence after Mosul has more likely grown. For Trump and his relatives, this is unacceptable. Now the Americans will arrange bloody “games of thrones” between Shiite formations and Kurds in Syria and in Iraq ... Both of them need a transit of hydrocarbons, and that’s why they’ll come together.
  9. A.
    A. 14 July 2017 17: 00
    +1
    Trump did nothing, it was his Anglo-Zionist cartridges with the Zhidomasons tensed.