Chinese corn
Russia has developed a plan to solve the problem of the Korean Peninsula. The United States is invited to abandon the constant escalation of the situation and change course towards detente. The Chinese Foreign Ministry welcomed this step and supplemented it with the idea of "double freezing" - the DPRK nuclear missile experiments and the US-South Korean military exercises. Against this background, it makes sense to consider in more detail what interests a particular country pursues in tackling the problem of North Korea.
We must proceed from the fact that both Russia and China are capable of influencing Pyongyang, and both countries are able to create a system in which such plans can begin to be implemented. Here, the main allies in achieving change will be North Korean officials, who really want to convert their local government into some kind of global opportunity for a good bourgeois life. But at the same time, the Americans are absolutely not interested in normalizing the situation in the DPRK - Pyongyang can be viewed as a kind of hernia, which greatly disturbs Russia and China, but doesn’t bother the United States. Because they will not allow to remove or cure this sore, at least in order to put pressure on China. Beijing has a simple policy: along the borders there should be no hotbeds of a military threat, but it is North Korea that is the main violator of this principle.
The elite of North Korea primarily seeks to survive, here it is completely similar to the Soviet party and economic nomenclature in the last years of the USSR. “Ours” then managed to solve their problems through perestroika and the Yeltsin coup, the North Korean elite are counting on something similar. In Pyongyang, 91 will pass its year, and they will become exactly the same oligarchs and “red directors” that we observed at home. In this case, the interest of the States - in any case, the tension on the peninsula to keep. And no matter what is said about the misfortunes of the divided Korean people, Seoul, being an American satellite, is also not interested in normalizing relations with its northern neighbor, and even more so - in united Korea. As long as there is a “communist” regime, Southerners receive American loans, the most diverse assistance that they are unlikely to want to lose. In addition, there is an understanding that while solving the problem with Pyongyang, Seoul will receive new voltage lines. Rather, not new, but historically formed: Japan will face not one of two relatively weak and dependent on other countries Koreas, but one strong. Korea from the old days was the main cause of conflicts between Japan and China, it was, is and always will be - it is doomed to this by its geographical position. The land of the rising sun is part of the western bloc, but with a special right to be Japan. United Korea will automatically become the cause of the conflict between China and the bloc of the Western powers led by the United States. That is, by and large, Beijing, having solved the North Korean problem, in return will receive a Japanese one, which is unlikely to please it.
There is a big game around North Korea, and no one thinks about the people who inhabit it. Comrade Stalin was the last great politician who, albeit in a peculiar way, was thinking of "people's happiness". Now there are none. Pyongyang is now such a “bad boy” in the team, about which all parents are ready to constantly get together to express their indignation, having drunk a cup of tea and discussed more pressing issues.
Therefore, I believe that the problem of the DPRK will be heated by all the interested countries with the exception of Russia in every possible way, while keeping it in a controlled manner. Suddenly, it will come to peace negotiations - some shelling or other provocations will surely begin. But the big war, too, will not inflame.
We must proceed from the fact that both Russia and China are capable of influencing Pyongyang, and both countries are able to create a system in which such plans can begin to be implemented. Here, the main allies in achieving change will be North Korean officials, who really want to convert their local government into some kind of global opportunity for a good bourgeois life. But at the same time, the Americans are absolutely not interested in normalizing the situation in the DPRK - Pyongyang can be viewed as a kind of hernia, which greatly disturbs Russia and China, but doesn’t bother the United States. Because they will not allow to remove or cure this sore, at least in order to put pressure on China. Beijing has a simple policy: along the borders there should be no hotbeds of a military threat, but it is North Korea that is the main violator of this principle.
The elite of North Korea primarily seeks to survive, here it is completely similar to the Soviet party and economic nomenclature in the last years of the USSR. “Ours” then managed to solve their problems through perestroika and the Yeltsin coup, the North Korean elite are counting on something similar. In Pyongyang, 91 will pass its year, and they will become exactly the same oligarchs and “red directors” that we observed at home. In this case, the interest of the States - in any case, the tension on the peninsula to keep. And no matter what is said about the misfortunes of the divided Korean people, Seoul, being an American satellite, is also not interested in normalizing relations with its northern neighbor, and even more so - in united Korea. As long as there is a “communist” regime, Southerners receive American loans, the most diverse assistance that they are unlikely to want to lose. In addition, there is an understanding that while solving the problem with Pyongyang, Seoul will receive new voltage lines. Rather, not new, but historically formed: Japan will face not one of two relatively weak and dependent on other countries Koreas, but one strong. Korea from the old days was the main cause of conflicts between Japan and China, it was, is and always will be - it is doomed to this by its geographical position. The land of the rising sun is part of the western bloc, but with a special right to be Japan. United Korea will automatically become the cause of the conflict between China and the bloc of the Western powers led by the United States. That is, by and large, Beijing, having solved the North Korean problem, in return will receive a Japanese one, which is unlikely to please it.
There is a big game around North Korea, and no one thinks about the people who inhabit it. Comrade Stalin was the last great politician who, albeit in a peculiar way, was thinking of "people's happiness". Now there are none. Pyongyang is now such a “bad boy” in the team, about which all parents are ready to constantly get together to express their indignation, having drunk a cup of tea and discussed more pressing issues.
Therefore, I believe that the problem of the DPRK will be heated by all the interested countries with the exception of Russia in every possible way, while keeping it in a controlled manner. Suddenly, it will come to peace negotiations - some shelling or other provocations will surely begin. But the big war, too, will not inflame.
Information