Military Review

Without Russia, An-148 is waiting for complete disappearance

29
All Monday, there were conflicting reports about the fate of the An-148 - Russian-Ukrainian aircraft assembled in Voronezh. Officially, statements about the termination of its production are refuted. Nevertheless, a number of circumstances allow us to make extremely disappointing forecasts for this car. The halt of cooperation will harm both Russia and Ukraine.


Without Russia, An-148 is waiting for complete disappearance


Russia will stop production of the An-148 short-haul aircraft, despite the import substitution achieved by the Voronezh Aircraft Building Association (VASO), reported RIA "News"Citing a source in aviation industry.

“Great interest was in An-148, which was made in Voronezh. Interest was shown by both civilian airlines and the Ministry of Defense. Unfortunately, the policy turned out to be stronger than the reason and the previously established relationship regime, ”the source said. According to him, the assembly of the last two aircraft ends at VASO, after which история An-148 as the type will end.
An-148 - short-haul narrow-body passenger aircraft developed by the Kiev OKB im. Antonov, created at the beginning of 2000-x in cooperation with Russia as a replacement for the outdated Tu-134. Aircraft of this type exploit airlines "Russia" and "Angara", a special flight squad "Russia", as well as the Ministry of Emergency Situations and the Ministry of Defense. An-148 - presidential board of the president of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko.

However, at the Voronezh plant to bury the plane in no hurry. The future of An-148 will depend on the demand for this car, the representative of YOU told Izvestia. At the moment, the plant fulfills the existing contract with the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: this year it remains to hand over three An-148, in 2018-m - two more. “There was no change in the content of the contract,” the plant representative assured. Rostec also denied stopping the production of the aircraft in Voronezh, NSN reported.

Nevertheless, the funeral of An-148 is only a matter of time, says Oleg Panteleev, the editor-in-chief of Aviaport. You just need to fulfill the contract and finish unfinished planes, which have already invested huge amounts of money. But then the project is at an impasse. If not 2017, then 2018 year, most likely, will be the real end of the history of An-148 in Russia.

“The customer of the Voronezh An-148 is only the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, and only other Russian power structures, in particular Rosgvardia, have shown interest. The political factor will not allow Ukrainian companies to supply components for the production of these aircraft in Voronezh for such customers. If, conditionally, it was about deliveries to Cuba, then there would be no problems. But export contracts for Voronezh-made airplanes are not expected, ”says Oleg Panteleev. Yes, and the Russian military would not want to depend on the Ukrainian parts.

In addition, Russia is interested in promoting the export of SSJ-100, and not its direct competitor - An-148. The Russian Defense Ministry, by the way, was considering the option of replacing in its fleet of “carcasses” with SSJ-100, but so far it has refused this idea. Because SSJ-100 can not work on unprepared unpaved runways, with which An-148 can easily cope.
An alternative for the Ministry of Defense will now become, most likely, a IL-114 turboprop. It has a slightly smaller capacity - 64 seats against 75 in An-148, but this is not so bad. “In terms of flight range, the Ilyushin machine is acceptable for a military customer, but in terms of speed, of course, it is far behind. But for now it is necessary to fly the IL-114, ”says Panteleev.

“For the first time, the IL-114 should be suitable for the military, and if it is modernized, it may well become a new standard for the Ministry of Defense,” said First Vice-President of the Russian Union of Engineers Ivan Andrievsky

However, for the time being it is impossible to discount the option of resuming the production of An-148 not from Ukrainian parts. Only it is necessary to calculate and understand how such an option is profitable, says Andrievsky. At least for the Voronezh aircraft factory it would be a good way out. Vaso does not want to lose an important serial project. Now at the enterprise there are two production programs: piece assembly IL-96 and assembly slightly more serial An-148. According to IL-96 from above, the task is given to promote this machine, therefore the assembly of this aircraft will be continued. But with An-148 one way or another will have to part. According to KLA data for 2015 a year, the production of An-148 brought 4,4 billion rubles from the total revenue of VASO to 10,3 billion rubles, that is, almost half.

“But in recent years, the volume of production and the volume of revenue from the production program of the An-148 was so insignificant that we can talk about its loss-making. At this rate of release, it only provides employment at the plant in Voronezh. From a social point of view it is good, but from an economic point of view it is not very good, ”says Panteleev.

In the future, the place of An-148 at the Voronezh aircraft factory may take the production of a light transport aircraft IL-112В. “Probably, next year the plane will safely make the first flight and in the future the mass production will be deployed in Voronezh. This will allow one project to be replaced by another, ”says the head of the Airport.

The only problem is that the IL-112 mass production program will actually begin only after 2020, and before this time the plant will be doomed to losses. But the production volumes at VASO will increase. If for five years 15 An-148 was produced, then with IL-112 the production speed will be much higher - up to 12 machines per year, Andrievsky notes.
The fate of An-148 in Ukraine is also not unclouded. In Russia, this aircraft, albeit in small quantities, but produced. In Ukraine, there is no assembly at all. Although the Ukrainian “Antonov” earlier made a loud statement that it would replace the Russian components (of the order of 50%) on this plane and begin assembling it. But in fact, it is not known what will happen at Antonov.

“Ukrainian JSCB Antonov is capable of making the so-called import substitution, more precisely, the substitution of imports from Russia for imports from European countries. But will such a decision be economically viable? It will take a lot of development work, subsequent tests, "- says Panteleev. After all, in fact, replacing 50% of Russian components with Western ones will mean the creation of a new aircraft.

On the example of the transport An-132D, which made its first flight at the end of March, Ukraine has shown that, in principle, it can assemble an aircraft without Russia. The An-132 is a deep modernization of the Soviet An-32 with the installation of American avionics, Pratt & Whitney Canada PW150A turboprop engines, as well as other Western-made auxiliary equipment.

But the project An-XNUMHD was lucky, because he was interested in Saudi Arabia. The Saudis ordered 132 such machines assembled in their homeland (and not in Ukraine). But will anyone, except Russia, want to give money to Ukraine to resume the production of the An-80 aircraft? The probability of this is extremely low.
Author:
Originator:
https://vz.ru/economy/2017/6/26/876068.html
29 comments
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  1. aszzz888
    aszzz888 1 July 2017 06: 17
    +6
    But will someone - except Russia - want to give money to Ukraine to resume the production of the An-148 aircraft?

    And we need him, "give money to An-148? ... died so died ... angry
    1. Banishing liberoids
      Banishing liberoids 1 July 2017 06: 28
      +3
      And in our place in Voronezh? We are essentially giving ourselves money, just to please the superjet, we decided not to produce this plane further.
      1. You Vlad
        You Vlad 1 July 2017 06: 59
        +1
        Quote: Exorcist Liberoids
        the plane decided not to produce further.

        MOSCOW, June 27. / TASS /. Voronezh Joint-Stock Aircraft Manufacturing Company (VASO) has denied information about the termination of the production of the An-148 passenger aircraft. The company has an order for the production of at least five cars, TASS was told in the press service of the plant on Tuesday.
        An family: from the corn carrier to the largest aircraft in the world
        "PJSC" VASO "has an existing contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense. According to it, three An-148 planes remain to be handed over this year, and two more next year. There was no change in the content of the contract. Will the An-148 be continued, depends on whether there will be customers for this type of aircraft or not, ”the press service noted.
        Earlier in the media there was information that Russia will cease production of the short-range An-148 aircraft. It was reported that the assembly of the last two aircraft is being completed at the Voronezh Aircraft Plant.
        An-148 is a short-haul narrow-body passenger aircraft developed by the Ukrainian Design Bureau named after Antonov, created in the early 2000s in cooperation with Russia as a replacement for the obsolete Tu-134. VASO produces the An-148 under license
        .
        More on TASS:
        http://tass.ru/ekonomika/4367721
      2. Stas157
        Stas157 1 July 2017 07: 02
        +9
        Quote: Expelling Liberoids
        in order to please the superjet, they decided not to produce this plane further.

        No. For the sake of a healthy sense! Indeed, even in the article it is written that no one except the Moscow Defense Forces needs AN-148. No one orders! So why build an unnecessary and already obsolete aircraft (at least relative to the same ssz-100)? And in return, the MO will receive native Il114, instead of Ukrainian planes. Who is bad? In general, I think it was a big mistake to produce Ukrainian planes at home, while developing foreign (and not mine!) Aircraft construction.
        1. nov_tech.vrn
          nov_tech.vrn 1 July 2017 12: 46
          +2
          The capacities for the production of the AN-148 were engaged in manufacturing for the Moscow Region and the Ministry of Emergencies, for the "hangars" and "Samara Airlines" went the sides of the ravaged "Flight" and "Aeroflot", and they still had orders in the option. According to the initial plans, VASO was supposed to produce up to 24 AN-148 aircraft a year, now they promise IL-112 to be launched in a series of up to 12 aircraft a year, an order came for 2 IL-96-300, for command posts and it is planned to produce 2- 3 IL-96 - 400, it’s all there in the future, VASO, at one time produced 15 pieces of IL-86 per year, not counting the little things, so that the production area will allow the An-148 to be made, and to change to il - 114, in terms of speed 114 is 2 times inferior, carrying capacity 1,5, and range 2 times, spitting low wing, dust and stones from take-off to the engine with a separate bonus.
    2. siberalt
      siberalt 1 July 2017 08: 31
      0
      Shitty thing. There will be nothing for the generals to fly to meetings in Moscow.
    3. seti
      seti 1 July 2017 11: 30
      +6
      Quote: aszzz888
      And we need him, "give money to An-148? ... died so died ... angry

      Half a billion evergreens have already been invested there, a large number of enterprise employees have been retrained and taught, tremendous work has been done. Is it so easy to give up practically our aircraft with ease? First you need to figure it out and maybe it’s not worth it - maybe it makes sense to let it out in small quantities. And look for a buyer abroad if there is no demand at home. At least until the time comes Il-112.
      1. DOCTOR ZLO
        DOCTOR ZLO 1 July 2017 16: 54
        +4
        Quote: seti
        And look for a buyer abroad if there is no demand at home. At least until the time comes Il-112.

        How do you feel? You suggest forgetting until the “right time” the production of the Il-112 / 114, which should have replaced all Antonov brand planes (except the An-124) and try to look for buyers for the An-148 if they were not needed in the best years except the Moscow Region and the Ministry of Emergencies ...
  2. Olgovich
    Olgovich 1 July 2017 06: 25
    +3
    “The Ukrainian Antonov Joint-Stock Commercial Bank is capable of making the so-called import substitution, or rather, replacing imports from Russia with imports from European countries. But will such a decision be economically justified? It will require large-scale development work, subsequent tests, ”Panteleev says.

    At this rate of production, it only provides employment at the enterprise in Voronezh. It’s good from a social point of view, but not very economically, ”Panteleev says.


    Those. in the end: without Russia and Ukraine, AN 148 is unprofitable in both Russia and Ukraine.

    Well, remembering the bitter experience, you need to build Russian Silt and carcass ....
    1. avt
      avt 1 July 2017 09: 23
      +2
      Quote: Olgovich
      Those. in the end: without Russia and Ukraine, AN 148 is unprofitable in both Russia and Ukraine.

      Bullshit. The car was driven up to 500 hours a month! Only the Red Wings could catch 300 hours on the Super Budget and leaked all the airplanes of Yakutia.
      Quote: Mountain Shooter
      Any replacement-modernization in aircraft must be confirmed by tests - which is long and expensive.

      Yes, horseradish is with them, everything can be localized in Russia, and the airplane was bought out. He is practically ours. BUT! If you exaggerate - any replacement of any screw, or rivets, will require confirmation from Antonov Design Bureau, nobody has canceled the type certification, and Antonov is responsible for the design documentation of the aviation product and the constant compliance of the typical design of the aviation product with the flight standards expiration date. Already faced with this on the 124th. They wanted to rewrite 148 of Russia from Ilyushin to Russia, they merged it into the Volga region and didn’t fly - they only let one car into cannibalism.
      1. Olgovich
        Olgovich 1 July 2017 09: 31
        +1
        Quote: avt
        Bullshit. The car was driven up to 500 hours a month! Only the Red Wings could catch 300 hours on the Super Budget and leaked all the airplanes of Yakutia.

        Brad, not having anything to do with my comment:
        Quote: Olgovich
        Those. in the end: without Russia and Ukraine, AN 148 is unprofitable in both Russia and Ukraine.
        1. avt
          avt 1 July 2017 10: 22
          +1
          Quote: Olgovich
          Brad, not having anything to do with my comment:

          The machine that the operator drove 500 (FIVE HUNDRED) flight hours per month
          Quote: Olgovich
          Without Russia and Ukraine, AN 148 is unprofitable in both Russia and Ukraine.
          by definition it cannot be unprofitable!
          bully Bullshit is the diagnosis of commentary. As I have already explained the symptoms of the diagnosis.
          Quote: avt
          If you exaggerate - any replacement of any screw, or rivets, will require confirmation from Antonov Design Bureau, nobody has canceled the type certification, and Antonov is responsible for the design documentation of the aviation product and the constant compliance of the typical design of the aviation product with the flight standards expiration date. Already faced with this on the 124th.

          That is, in fact, without the now Ukrainian, Antonov Design Bureau, it is not possible to drive a car, even with an administrative resource and import substitution into a large series, along the passenger transport line. So get upside down - normal operation is impossible without RUIN in RUSSIA. If, again but as indicated, with the transporter 124, the Volga-Dnepr "somehow parted ways with the Antonov," then, given the presence of the Super Budget, the 148 has practically no chance. Alas! The machine is quite decent, since the pedigree comes from , Cheburashki. "
          1. Olgovich
            Olgovich 1 July 2017 11: 27
            0
            Quote: avt
            The machine that the operator drove 500 (FIVE HUNDRED) flight hours per month
            by definition it cannot be unprofitable!
            What nonsense is this? belay
            a car can be driven for a thousand hours, but at the same time it will remain unprofitable.
            Read what is profitability.
            1. nov_tech.vrn
              nov_tech.vrn 1 July 2017 12: 09
              +2
              I’m fooling with your qualifications and aplomb, Mr. Olgovich, they undertook to comment, take the trouble to familiarize yourself with the subject. Analitegi from Aeroflot announced that the AN-148 aircraft is unprofitable, due to the fact that it does not provide a 300-hour flight per month, a priori it is believed that the board does not go into flight without being loaded, it is replaced with a smaller aircraft , and with hangars and Samara airlines, flying time is provided over 400 hours. Thus, an - 148 did not stand because of flight insolvency, but because of administrative games.
              1. Olgovich
                Olgovich 1 July 2017 13: 21
                0
                Quote: nov_tech.vrn
                я fool with your qualifications and aplomb, Mr. Olgovich,

                In my opinion, this happened without my modest pressure on your brain. yes
                Quote: nov_tech.vrn
                Analitegi from Aeroflot announced that the AN-148 aircraft is unprofitable, due to the fact that it does not provide a 300-hour flight per month, a priori it is believed that the board does not go into flight without being loaded, it is replaced with a smaller aircraft , and with hangars and Samara airlines, flying time is provided over 400 hours. Thus, an - 148 did not stand because of flight insolvency, but because of administrative games.


                ARTICLE (or my comment) -read, there are reasons for unprofitability production (and the article is about production) both in Russia and Ukraine today.
                Challenge them! Can you No? Of course not.
                well so
                Quote: nov_tech.vrn
                I'm fooling
                farther.
                1. nov_tech.vrn
                  nov_tech.vrn 1 July 2017 15: 06
                  0
                  this article by Olga Samofalova has long been disassembled on the bones on other resources, and leave alone specialists like Panteev from the "airport" and other specialists who substitute economic calculations for blah blah blah, good luck
                  1. Olgovich
                    Olgovich 1 July 2017 15: 38
                    0
                    Quote: nov_tech.vrn
                    that article by Olya Samofalova has long been disassembled on the bones on other resources, and leave alone specialists like Panteev from the "airport" and other specialists who substitute economic calculations for blah blah blah,

                    So, you can’t. What was required to find out.
                    Good luck!
                    1. nov_tech.vrn
                      nov_tech.vrn 1 July 2017 16: 36
                      +1
                      What do you refute? allegations and not a single calculation, boltology
                      1. Olgovich
                        Olgovich 2 July 2017 07: 03
                        0
                        Quote: nov_tech.vrn
                        What do you refute? allegations and not a single calculation, boltology


                        Read their " lol paсfour lol on the profitability of production of AN 148. yes
                        Not me, but the article-refute.
  3. The comment was deleted.
  4. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 1 July 2017 09: 02
    +2
    Aircraft is a complex and responsible car. Any replacement-modernization in aircraft must be confirmed by tests - which is long and expensive. Such things are repulsed by serial production. A few dozen aircraft per year. In case of piece production - replacing dill components, IMHO, will not be profitable.
  5. nov_tech.vrn
    nov_tech.vrn 1 July 2017 11: 49
    +1
    I grieve, the opuses of Olga Samofalova, the 120 level analyzer, migrate, after discussion with Vzglyad, to VO, why? Does VO need copywriting?
  6. sabakina
    sabakina 1 July 2017 12: 41
    +3
    An-148 is a short-haul narrow-body passenger aircraft developed by the Kiev Design Bureau named after Antonov, created in the early 2000s in cooperation with Russia as a replacement for the obsolete Tu-134.

    On Saturday morning, I could be wrong, but the TU-134 will seem to be larger.
  7. Altona
    Altona 1 July 2017 12: 57
    0
    Quote: seti
    Half a billion evergreens have already been invested there, a large number of enterprise employees have been retrained and taught, tremendous work has been done. Is it so easy to give up practically our aircraft with ease?

    -------------------------------
    So I also think that the model is mastered, the equipment is made, all this is not done in one day. If there are orders for it, then it is necessary to produce. Moreover, such a high-wing plan is preferable for our airfields with a "conditional" runway, that is, on a primer.
  8. faiver
    faiver 1 July 2017 16: 10
    0
    Well, what the fuck are we gonna do our own? we’ve got a bombardier in the north instead of an-24,
  9. svp67
    svp67 1 July 2017 16: 28
    +1
    The Saudis ordered 80 such cars, assembled in their homeland (and not in Ukraine).
    It is not a fact that the contract will be executed.
  10. Normal ok
    Normal ok 1 July 2017 20: 20
    +2
    In general, the old song: I shoot myself in the foot, just to spoil ...
  11. nov_tech.vrn
    nov_tech.vrn 3 July 2017 21: 59
    0
    Olgovich,
    just like a dove
  12. andrew xnumx
    andrew xnumx 5 July 2017 20: 44
    0
    We need to promote the large-scale production of IL-114. Turboprop aircraft is highly underestimated. Economical, highly reliable, it has very good prospects.
    1. nov_tech.vrn
      nov_tech.vrn 7 July 2017 11: 19
      0
      no question, it is necessary to develop and promote the domestic aircraft industry, in all directions, il114, this is a completely different niche