Panzer Peremoga
Recently, the topic of reviving the Ukrainian army and the possible transition of Ukraine to decisive actions in relation to the Donbass has been actualized.Statement by the NSDC about new methods of warfare and possible legislative abolition of the ATO with a transition to some more stringent regime, adoption by the Cabinet of Ministers of the re-equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Poroshenko’s talks with the US Secretary of Defense - the belligerence of plans is noticeably increasing.
Ukrainian politics has turned into a show so long ago that now it may seem as though it is quite normal. In order to perceive this show adequately, it is worth understanding the stable canons of the genre.
The Ukrainian political series can even be conditionally divided into several obligatory episodes, which are repeated over and over again during each electoral cycle.
The first year or two after the election, “overcoming the heavy legacy of predecessors” is going on. Then the time comes for “fulfilling promises”, when whenever possible what is being done with which politicians went to the polls, and then the results swell in the media in every way. With the approach of elections, in a year, or even two, it is time for new promises.
Over time, the gap between the promised and fulfilled was constantly growing, which meant that the news received through the press “Peremoga” less and less corresponded to real achievements.
In order to illustrate this evolution, it is worthwhile, of course, to cite a couple of examples from different periods of the newest Ukrainian stories.
In the fall of 1999, a presidential election was to be held, and the then-current President Leonid Kuchma planned to run for a second term. By this time, the economy was already stabilizing and the transition to industrial growth began. However, the mood of the population reached a negative peak.
To reverse these sentiments, Leonid Danilovich needed to demonstrate success in various fields.
So part of the Soviet defense industry, which went to Ukraine, was able to master the closed cycle of production tanks. The tangible success was the production in 1996-1999 of about 300 T-80 tanks for Pakistan, and, unlike many subsequent contracts, the deal was without scandal.
And by the beginning of the pre-election struggle of the Ukrainian industry, it was possible to finish and present the development of the new T-84 Oplot, which had begun in the USSR.
In the speeches of Ukrainian officials and media publications, he was quickly declared the best in the world (except that Abrams compares, but it is twice as expensive) and predicted a victorious march through the markets.
Judge for yourself: 100 tanks per year - such performance was achieved by the Ukrainian industry during the execution of the Pakistani order. Naturally, in the future it is possible to rivet as many “Strongholds” around the world.
Ukrainian tank building was advancing on all fronts: 500 "Strongholds" - for Greece, 200 - for Turkey. Moreover, Turkey got worried and began to look closely at the Ukrainian tank, fearing that Greece is about to have the newest tank in the world.
Similarly with India, and with Pakistan.
The Pakistanis were so pleased with their new Ukrainian-made T-80 that, of course, they decided to buy another “Oplotov”. A hundred tanks to begin with, and then an order for the construction of a tank factory to produce even more new Ukrainian tanks by ourselves.
Naturally, watching Pakistan build up the number of the best tanks in the world, India began to move. We decided to immediately beat Pakistan not only with the number of tanks, but also with technical superiority. There have been reports in the Ukrainian media that India, together with Ukrainian specialists, plans to create its own supertank on the basis of Oplota.
All these radiant news just came in the period of new election promises in the struggle for the presidency.
Of course, the tank theme was only one of the elements of the election campaign of that time, but I would like to stress once again that as an element of public policy, it still had some material basis.
Ukraine did produce several hundred tanks for Pakistan. Ukrainian tanks and the truth are involved in complex ground tests during tenders in Greece and Turkey. On the basis of the Soviet 125-mm tank gun, its Ukrainian version was really developed, and besides, the version with the NATO 120-mm caliber, which allowed the Turks and Greeks to offer their tanks.
In addition, Ukraine was the only country in all tank tenders, which, after ordering a batch of tanks, agreed to fully transfer the technology of their production.
Despite all the material prerequisites, none of these promised “peremogs” ever took place.
However, for the mass consciousness this trifle passed unnoticed. After all, the year of Kuchma’s second presidency has not yet passed, as the Maidan began against him, which started with the murder of journalist Gongadze. Naturally, against the background of these events, the tanks somehow went into the shadows and another stage of the political cycle began.
In the meantime, the “Stronghold” remained the most unstockable of the best tanks in the world. Of course, there was a whole range of reasons for this, but one of them is worth a little more detail.
Ukraine had to organize its own production of a tank gun, since the core manufacturer of barrels for Kharkov tanks remained in Russia. It was decided to master the production at the Sumy Frunze NPO specializing in the production of various, including drilling, equipment for the oil and gas sector.
It should be noted separately that the NPO Frunze is really a engineering gem, inherited by the young “independence”. Based on a machine-building enterprise founded at the end of the 19th century, about 1991 thousand people worked by 15 by the year. Unlike the good half of the machine-building enterprises of Ukraine, he managed to survive the 90.
By the time the war broke out, 2014 of the year produced production lines for the chemical industry, gas turbine power plants of different capacities, industrial compressors and pumps, various technological gas equipment. One of the most important customers of Sumy NPO was, of course, Gazprom, until in May 2015, the company officially refused to purchase at the Sumy enterprise.As for the actual gun barrels, the blanks for them were made at a subsidiary of Sumy NPO Plant of Weighted Drilling and Leading Pipes.
Ukraine was lucky with this plant separately. It was founded in 1988 year and was commissioned on the eve of the collapse of the USSR. Accordingly, in the 90-ies the plant was equipped with the latest equipment for those times. The main specialization, as the name implies, is the manufacture of drilling equipment for the oil and gas industry.
It is known that the tank barrel is, in fact, a pipe, so why not try to produce it on such a modern and advanced pipe plant? As a result, the barrel was manufactured in Sumy, and in Kharkov, at the Malyshev plant, the manufacture and assembly of all other elements of the gun were carried out.
Soon it turned out that the Ukrainian counterpart has a service life of two to three times lower than the original sample of the Soviet cannon: only about 200 shots.
The whole secret was in the alloy, which is used in casting the gun. The experience and technologies accumulated by the citizens of Sumy in the production of drilling equipment did not allow to achieve high results in the weapons business. For some time, attempts were continued to improve the tool with the help of another pearl inherited from the USSR - the Paton Electric Welding Institute in Kiev. But, despite several years of effort, special laser processing did not help either.
Only 15 years after the conclusion of a contract with Pakistan, that is, in 2011, did Ukraine finally sell its own tanks for the second time in history.
The buyer was Thailand, which was contracted to produce 54 machines "Oplot". It was planned that all tanks would be transferred during the 2011 – 2014 period. However, by the beginning of summer, 2017 managed to produce only 35 units, some of which had not even been accepted by the customer. For the most optimistic prospects, the contract will be executed no earlier than the end of next year. The delay in the execution of the contract will be four years.
It should be noted that the production capabilities of the Ukrainian defense industry, which fell in 20 times, from 100 tanks in 1997 to five tanks per year by 2016.
It is characteristic that the guns (and not only they) on these kind of new tanks, not Ukrainian, but of Soviet production, were intended for T-80 tanks. In fact, the T-84, sold by Ukraine to Thailand, is more like a modernized T-80 than a really new tank. As a result, instead of the price tag for upgrading the old model in 1,5 million dollars, Thailand paid 4,5 million dollars for a really new car, as Oplot is positioned.
The fact that tanks with Soviet guns left for Thailand is evidenced by the fact that even in 2008, the Sumy NGO officially refused to participate in the production of a tank gun, although in fact it was minimized earlier. And since then, that is, for at least 10 years, there have been no applications for the resumption of such production from the enterprise.
Not surprisingly, Thailand ultimately refused to cooperate with Ukraine in favor of China.
This whole epic is interesting not only by itself, but also as an illustration of how the gap between the victorious reports of politicians and the real state of affairs has been growing over the past decades.
The last such reports sound around notorious bezviza. If you listen to Poroshenko and the accompanying media, the situation looks as if some historical goal has been achieved, for which Maidan has fought with the police and tyrants.
However, in the 2014 year, visa-free was initially well in the top ten of the goals set by the “revolution of dignity”. The main goals, such as European material well-being, the fight against corruption and, of course, the opening of social elevators in the country, turned out to be unattainable. In practice, the position of the majority of Ukrainian citizens has deteriorated immeasurably in all areas declared by the revolutionaries.
To obscure these realities, the visa-free achievement swells up. After a three-to-four-fold drop in income today, go to rest and learn in Europe is much more difficult than it could be done with the visa regime in the 2013 year. Thus, the strategic and historical struggle to simplify travel to Europe eventually led to their complication.
Similarly with the Ukrainian "defense industry".
In an environment where the issue of visa-free is gradually being exhausted, topical substitutes are badly needed. Since historical peremoga is not foreseen in the near future, it remains to work on creating images of more moderate, but at the same time “strategic” achievements.
Here the former glory of tank builders was useful. At the beginning of 2015, the new head of the Ukroboronprom said that from the production level of five tanks, Ukraine would launch 2017 new vehicles annually by 120.
Before his appointment, Roman Romanov was an oblast-level official for 20 for years and had nothing to do with the defense industry. And because such figures, it seems, took just from the Internet, extrapolating the success of the end of 90-s to the present.
The reality has shown that it is not yet possible to jump above five new tanks a year, which, to a large extent, consist of components of still Soviet production.
But after all, the real state of affairs is not at all a reason for the pre-election situation, in which the Ukrainian political system seems to be permanently present, not to express a desire for new military-industrial heights.
So, in the middle of this month, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine adopted a resolution on plans for the development of the military industry. Among the standard slogans on the creation of an army equipped with the most modern weapons and means, there is also specifics.
In particular, in some perspective, the resumption of production and tank 120-mm guns to NATO standards, which, as mentioned above, at the end of the 90-s tried to produce in Ukraine, was announced. Accordingly, these new guns should be armed with new tanks, which Ukraine is about to buy for the APU.
As the Ministry of Defense said a month earlier, it is planned to spend 2020 billion hryvnas on arms purchases until 100, in total. To assess the reality of production plans for the army of its own tanks, it is interesting to imagine how much of this amount will have to be spent on it.
If it is reasonable to assume that the “Stronghold” can become this new tank, then, accordingly, it will cost about 100 million hryvnias apiece. As a result, in order to re-equip the seven airmobile brigades of Ukraine with new “NATO” tanks, which, according to the state, now have 13 tanks, will have to spend 9 billion hryvnia.
And this is not counting on the fact that, to begin with, it will also be necessary to find means for resuming own production of a number of critical modules, including a gun and armor.
This should be done after the 10 – 20-year break. At the same time, many of those who organized the production of a closed cycle of 20 tanks years ago, have already left the company for age reasons. And many enterprises that participated in the closed cycle at the end of 90, today also no longer exist.
Thus, only the resumption of production of tanks and the rearmament of approximately one-fifth of the army will have to spend 10 – 15% of all declared procurement costs weapons and gear. And it provided that the hryvnia will not depreciate all these four years. If we talk about the full transition of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the new tanks, then it would take at least 60% of the costs for four years.
Much more realistic would be the re-equipment of modernized versions of Soviet tanks from stocks, only with the addition of a part of independently produced elements. At least, it would be several times cheaper.
However, three years of war essentially exhausted stocks in warehouses. Some repair companies that supplied reconditioned equipment after conservation are now being closed again. Having experienced a short rise in the 2014 – 2016 years, they were simply left without the raw materials used by the ready-made Soviet equipment stored at the enterprises.
And for this simple physical reason, it will not be possible to replace the old Soviet equipment with modernized Soviet equipment in the APU in sufficient quantities. Is that not to upgrade the tanks after conservation, and samples that were already in operation and are in the army units.
Summing up, I must say that everything depends on the exhaustion of Soviet resources and the picture of real results will increasingly differ from the declared “peremog”.
Under these conditions, a simple rational view of things critically undermines the foundations of the legitimacy of the Ukrainian ruling elites. Therefore, such rational views on reality should be as small as possible.
The old and proven way to achieve this is emotions, which, as is known, after overcoming a certain threshold, significantly reduce a person’s rational thinking ability. Therefore, the inevitable consequence of the substitution of reality by “peremogs,” as we see it in the case of visa-free or tank plans, is the need to continuously stir up emotions in society.
This task is simplified by the fact that a significant part of Ukrainian citizens - according to various estimates, from 50 to 70% of voters - simply does not participate in the elections. Those who continue to support the legitimacy of the current government with their participation in the electoral process are obviously prone to emotional reactions, as the past few years have shown.
Most parties in the current parliament, and especially such as the “Popular Front”, remember that one of the criteria for their success was the hysteria that prevailed on the territory of Ukraine in 2014 year.
And now the same Turchinov is constantly stirring up the expectations of the new war and the new onslaught of Ukraine against the "rebels" of Donbass. Depending on the course of the pre-election race, various political forces of Ukraine will certainly undertake aggressive attacks towards the republics and the disloyal population. It is possible that provocations will be organized that will cause a wide emotional response in society.
Not only the Ukrainian conflict, but also other examples of current conflicts indicate that the violence and cruelty resorted to for political purposes can take on the most monstrous proportions.
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