Opinion D. Rogozin
At the beginning of his speech, the deputy chairman of the government urged to abandon excessive optimism. As is known, our country has the largest territory in the world, but in terms of population and, as a result, in its density, we are far from the first places. The second point to which it is worth paying attention, concerns resources. The Urals, Siberia and the Far East are not the poorest regions in this respect. Therefore, according to Rogozin, now or in the future there will be no easy life, just like our children. Of course, those countries that would like to gain control over the above-named parts of Russia do not take aggressive actions of an aggressive nature. But D. Rogozin worked for many years in the diplomatic sphere, including he had the opportunity to be the representative of Russia to NATO. All this experience allows Rogozin to assert that it is still not worthwhile to suspect the so-called partners of exclusively good intentions.
If the former (are they the former?) Probable opponents decide to take active actions, then we will have to fight them back. And here again there is no reason for optimism or even hats. Referring to General Makarov, Rogozin says that now our army has some problems with recruiting. The reason for this is that the Deputy Prime Minister considers the events of twenty years ago. At its core, it was a real revolution, and such things are almost always not without negative consequences. One of them was a decline in the birth rate, which, after 18-20 years, was “backfired” in the call-up figures. Thus, if something happens, we will have to rely not only on the existing army, but also on reservists. Moreover, their distribution by age will obviously not be in favor of younger people.
The military-political situation in the world requires our country to solve a number of problems as soon as possible. And no one will dare to say that all this will be easy. According to Rogozin, in order to effectively solve the existing tasks and those tasks that may arise in the future, it is necessary, first of all, to accurately predict the situation and to understand what, where and how will happen. In addition to analytics, it is necessary to work out the interaction between the apparatus of the Ministry of Defense, military-oriented scientific institutions and defense enterprises. This interaction should go in four main areas:
- Formation of appearance. All of the above industries should create and work out common concepts. As for all the armed forces as a whole, and for their individual parts, up to specific types of weapons. The same direction includes the formation of technical tasks for armament, organization of production, etc .;
- Strategy. The renewal of the armed forces is unthinkable without careful study of the methods and methods of their use in specific conditions and for specific tasks;
- Project support. It is obvious that any program that is more or less significant for the defense of the country must be controlled at all stages of its creation. This will allow to adjust the technical specifications and concepts of application, and in addition, will provide an opportunity to avoid the extra cost of money and time, which in modern conditions is one of the most priority needs;
- Direct participation in projects. Scientific organizations should participate in the development of new systems at all stages, from R & D to field testing.
In addition, Rogozin put forward one remarkable thesis, which, undoubtedly, can cause many disputes. He believes that the Soviet defense complex was a real role model, not only in terms of the success of projects. Another important point from the Soviet past lies in the fact that before the relationship between the manufacturers and the customer (the Ministry of Defense) was not built according to the market principle. And now, Rogozin believes, we need to return to this. The Ministry of Defense, he says, is not an accidental passer-by who, in passing, "went through the market, to see some goods." The military should not be a buyer of finished products, but in full its customer. They must form the requirements for the necessary equipment or weapons. Only in this case, according to Rogozin, the whole cycle of creating new products will work correctly and efficiently.
Regarding unpleasant tendencies, Rogozin spoke as follows: it is no secret that in some areas there is a serious lag. Now, probably, it makes no sense to try to catch up with competitors. Perhaps at the moment you need to try to understand the current trends in the development of military equipment and weapons and try to cut the corner. In this case, without much loss of time, it will turn out to be more or less good to integrate into common global undertakings.
At the conference in AVN, D. Rogozin touched upon the problem of threats that may appear in the near future. Every year information technologies take more and more strong positions in all spheres of human activity. In addition, for a long time there are various methods with which you can organize sabotage in cyberspace. The most well-known example is the Staksnet virus, which led to the deterioration of equipment at Iranian nuclear facilities. Remarkably, no information was displayed on the operator console. A few years ago, the leading foreign countries understood the danger of such threats and seriously engaged in the so-called. cyber defense. Moreover, more recently in NATO, “cyber attack” is considered to be a sufficient reason to start a war. It turns out, says Rogozin, now you can not close your eyes to the information "war". In the future, an attack with computer viruses can, at the very least, seriously disrupt enemy communications. It is hardly worth closing eyes to this sphere of human activity. Our country now also needs special units that will become involved in IT security of strategic areas.
Theses of General Makarov
Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the RF General of the Army N. Makarov agrees with the Deputy Chairman of the Government regarding optimistic forecasts for the future. As an example of the complexity of the geopolitical position of Russia, Makarov cited Japan. According to him, the Land of the Rising Sun has the same area as Lake Baikal, and its population is not much smaller than in Russia. It should be noted, the general was wrong - Japan is almost twelve times the size of Lake Baikal. However, its almost 380 thousand square kilometers cannot be compared with Russia's seventeen million. In general, the example of Makarov is not entirely successful, but remarkably illustrates the situation.
Makarov agrees with Rogozin in assessing the impact of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the events that followed. It is no secret that that period struck the army not only with a shortage of draftees after a few years. Due to the lack of funding from the armed forces left a lot of valuable personnel. There were problems with the influx - according to Makarov, two thirds of the graduates of military schools in this period, at the first opportunity, left “for the citizen”. In foreign countries at this time there was some slowdown in development: it was considered that with the end of the Cold War, it was possible not to invest huge sums in their armies. However, there was no complete stop, and the former potential opponents abandoned the resources they had released to reform their armed forces and upgrade their equipment. Of course, the Russian army lagged behind the foreign ones, because for several years it literally had to fight for survival.
The result of work abroad, in particular in the NATO countries, was the emphasis on military operations, the emergence of the concept of cyber security, as well as new “rules” of warfare. Analyzing the latest military conflicts, a clear impression is created that its initial period plays the main role in the outcome of the entire war. In addition, Makarov noted, the current wars can be divided into two stages: the short one, during which active actions are taking place, and the second, post-conflict, longer and going by its own laws. Another trend in the development of foreign armies concerns the quantity and quality. On the one hand, leading countries are reducing their armed forces, and on the other, new technologies, new equipment, etc. are being introduced. As a result, a smaller army has no less combat potential. The overwhelming majority of analysts believe that it is this approach that should make the army of the future out of the modern army.
The need to reform the Russian armed forces is long overdue. Already by the beginning of 90-x, says General Makarov, it was necessary to take some steps towards improvement. However, the events at that time did not contribute to the implementation of all the necessary changes. As a result, the situation has reached a critical point. At the very end of the nineties, the concept of the so-called appeared. "Threatened period". Analysts of the Ministry of Defense calculated that in order to preserve the defense capacity of the entire state only in one two thousand year it was necessary to invest about a trillion rubles in the defense industry and the army. It was a double-edged sword, and both were far from pleasant. Makarov recalled that the military simply did not have such money (they could not even dream of such amounts), and the defense industry complex was no longer able to ensure the successful development of a whole trillion. Describing those events, the Chief of the General Staff even says that by 2000, the army was virtually powerless and unarmed.
A difficult situation, it should be said, at that time was not only in the army and the defense industry, but it was necessary to do something before it was too late. The gradual improvement in the position of the armed forces, according to Makarov, eventually led to the fact that in 2008, at last, there was an opportunity to begin the long overdue reform of the entire army. It was clear that simply and quickly it would not be possible to do all this, but the work was begun. Over the past three years since then, a lot has been done, as if not even more than in previous years 15-20. Almost all areas were changed, including high command and personnel training. Thus, the suspension of enrollment in military schools helped distribute existing graduates into appropriate parts and remove those notorious two-thirds of the cadets who, having received lieutenant shoulder straps, did not want to continue their service. The system of central government departments of the Ministry of Defense was optimized - their number of employees alone was reduced almost four times. Makarov also considers introducing the practice of outsourcing into army life a serious innovation. The general considers this a very useful undertaking, because the fighters are now busy with their direct duties, rather than peeling potatoes and other economic issues. More serious structural changes were also made. Instead of six military districts in our country, there are now four in which there are groups in six main areas. The optimization of the structure of the armed forces has increased their potential, as Makarov said, more than doubled. And this is against the background of talks about the collapse of the army. A new type of military force was created - aerospace defense. Conducted a systematic update technology. Thus, over the past two years, the share of new materiel has grown from 5-6 to 16-18%. By 2015, this indicator should reach 30%, and by 20, to 70%.
Separately, Makarov spoke about the interaction of defense enterprises and the Ministry of Defense. There is a lot of work and no less problems. Especially the military are annoyed by some organizations, which, in the words of the chief of the General Staff, are made by the “Cossacks”, and they charge no less than the price of a real Mercedes. These same "Cossacks" are poorly suitable for the military, and they are in no hurry to buy them. In turn, the cunning "car factory" begins to scream about a dying defense industry, hungry workers, etc. Of course, the domestic manufacturer can and should be supported by the ruble. But not at the cost of defense of the whole country. General Makarov ended the topic of relations between the Ministry and enterprises as follows: “we will start to buy what the army needs and the fleet».
In strategic planning and views on the conduct of modern war, the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation considers it important to abandon the old stereotype methods, even if they have been worked out three times. A good example of a new method of warfare was recently demonstrated by NATO forces during an intervention in Libya. Unlike all previous operations, the ground units of the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance did not fight in Libya. In addition to this feature of the war, it should be noted that in addition to attacks from the air, Gadhafi's forces carried out active informational “blows”. And, judging by the result, such a method of conducting a military operation cannot be called unsuccessful - the loyalists are broken and a tricolor flag flies over Tripoli. Another “stereotypical” moment concerns weapons. Studies on the topic of promising types of weapons have been going on for several years. Until the end of this decade, the United States is going to adopt the so-called. railgun, and in addition, work is underway on the subject of combat lasers. American experiments show a certain effectiveness of these types. weaponsTherefore, according to Makarov, it would not hurt us to actively engage in the fundamentally new weapons.
As for cybernetic threats, in this area our armed forces are ready to begin their work. The Russian army has the opportunity in the very near future to organize special units and so-called. "Cyber command", which will deal with three main areas:
- Violation of the information systems of the enemy, including the introduction of malicious software products;
- Protection of own communication systems and control systems;
- Work with domestic and foreign public opinion through the media, the Internet, etc.
But, as General N. Makarov quite rightly notes, all this will not be easy. The industry is relatively new and, therefore, there will be a lot of “talk to the hunters, but to do it ...” All the required steps should be done as quickly and efficiently as possible, because we do not have much choice. Makarov concluded his speech with a little pretentious, but truthful and useful thesis: “We are a country of winners. The Russian soldier was, is and will be the best soldier in the world. Every officer should know and remember this. ”
A word to General Ostapenko
To date, the main documents relating to the military doctrine of Russia do not contain clear definitions for the military space defense system (WKO). There are only general views on the role of these troops. Therefore, the command of the newly formed branch of the army as a whole and its commander, Lieutenant-General Oleg Ostapenko will have to do very, very much in the very near future.
Despite the very small "age" of the East Kazakhstan region, there is already a general opinion regarding the tasks of these troops. They include:
- Exploration of the situation in outer space, including the detection of threats of various kinds (strategic missiles, spacecraft, etc.);
- Destruction of the warheads of the strategic missiles of the enemy and the suppression / disabling / destruction of enemy space vehicles;
- Control over the airspace of Russia and its allies, warning of air attack and other air defense tasks;
- Electronic intelligence of the situation, electronic protection of own objects of aerospace defense and the protected area.
At the stage of the gradual formation of the appearance of a new kind of troops, General Ostapenko believes, it is necessary to work in closest cooperation with the relevant scientific organizations. This will provide an opportunity to work out all the necessary questions at the right level and with the required quality. EKR troops need a thorough analysis of the current situation and accurate long-term forecasting, which, in particular, the Academy of Military Sciences can handle.
At the moment, in accordance with the order of the Supreme Commander, the Air Force has two operational air defense and anti-missile defense commands (a missile defense division and three air defense brigades), a space command together with the Missile Attack Warning Centers, the Main Space Testing Center, and the Plesetsk Cosmodrome . Thanks to the unification of all these structural subdivisions into one type of military, the defense potential in the sphere of air defense and missile defense has significantly improved. According to Ostapenko, in the future the structure of the aerospace defense will be slightly changed: now the general command and coordination of work is carried out from one command post of the troops of the aerospace defense. A little later, a full-fledged three-level system of control points will be created with the distribution of tasks into tactical, operational and strategic.
In addition to structural tasks, the armed forces troops, according to their commander, have a number of purely technical problems. First of all, there are certain hardships with the efficiency of work and the equipment of the various groups of East Kazakhstan. The space train of aerospace defense troops, for example, is clearly not equipped with enough. The ground material is in the best condition, but still there is still room to develop. One of the most priority areas is the completion of the creation of a low-altitude radar field along the entire length of the state border of the Russian Federation. Otherwise, in the troops of the East Kazakhstan Region, everything is normal and requires only minor improvements.
General Ostapenko singled out two “sets” of measures relating to the development of the armed forces in the near and distant future. First of all, it is required to assemble all the systems of detection, destruction and communications at the disposal of the East-Kazakhstan Oblast troops into a single integrated complex that meets all modern requirements. After that, it will be possible to begin shaping the future for the East Kazakhstan region. The main directions of development for the long term, according to Ostapenko, look like this:
- To increase the orbital grouping for more effective detection of potential threats. To control the northern hemisphere of the planet, there will be enough gain in the form of four spacecraft;
- The commissioning of three new radar stations for early detection and warning. Through the use of new technologies, these stations will completely close all existing gaps in the missile attack warning system;
- Modernization of existing means of observation and reconnaissance, both for air defense and for antimissile defense, with their simultaneous unification within the limits of the possible. Next, you need to create a reduced to a minimum range of electronic equipment.
In the very near future, in part of the Armed Forces of the East Kazakhstan region, the delivery of the C-400 anti-aircraft missile systems will continue, and until 2020, the new C-500 complexes will go to the troops. In general, 2020 year for the troops of the aerospace defense will be the same milestone as for other branches of the troops of our armed forces. The first few years of the remaining time before the end of the decade, the command of the aerospace defense plans to focus on updating the material part. Later, the active development of promising areas, such as new launch vehicles, will begin. At the final stage of the State program of re-equipment, while maintaining other paths of development, the main efforts will be aimed at integrating the control systems and communications of the EKR troops into the general structure of communications and control of all armed forces of the country. According to the current plans of the VKO command, this branch of the military, as a special priority, will receive such a number of new equipment, thanks to which its share will grow to 90%.