Jihadists in Libya retreat, but do not drop weapons
The result of months-long armed confrontation in the Dzhufra area between the Libyan National Army (LNA) under the command of Khalifa Haftar, a coalition of Islamist armed groups consisting mainly of the Third Force from Misrata, the Benghazi Defense Brigade (BZB) and smaller Kaida ”and the organization“ Muslim Brotherhood ”(both are banned in the Russian Federation), became the transition under the control of the LNA of a vast region south of Sirte approximately 300 – 350 km. According to the well-known specialist in modern Libya, Jason Pak, the success of the LNA has led to a change in the balance of power in favor of the eastern center of power in Cyrenaica and put the Islamist coalition on the verge of collapse. Now Khalifa Haftar controls not only all Cyrenaica, except for the Islamist enclave in Derna and several quarters in Benghazi, but also entered the territory of Tripolitania and Fezzan, respectively, the western and southern regions of the country.HIDDED RESERVE
Having captured the airbases in Jufra and Tinkhamenta, as well as the settlements of Hun, Sokna, Waddan and others, Haftar practically cut off the communications connecting the Mediterranean coast with Sebha, the administrative center of Fezzan. This sharply limits, but does not deprive the opponents of the LNA in the south the opportunity to receive reinforcements in manpower, weapon and equipment, the whole desert can not be blocked. In the future, it opens up opportunities to move to the south-west, in the direction of the hydrocarbon deposits, and even block, if necessary, oil pipelines connecting them with terminals on the west coast of Tripolitania.
But the most important thing is that the success in Jufr objectively creates the prerequisites for the further offensive of the LNA on Tripoli. According to the official representative of the LNA, Ahmed Mismari, the units of the 12 Brigade of the LNA under the command of Ben Nail, who seized Jufra, began to advance towards Beni Walid, who is considered the "threshold" of Tripoli.
It is unlikely that Haftar will decide on a direct clash with those forces that support Faiz Saraj, besides, he has not so much strength and resources for this. To attack Tripoli, Haftar needs new strong allies. Of the old allies that exist in western Libya, the marshal can rely mainly on the Zintan group, in particular, on the Abu Bakr Saddyk brigade, the very one that controlled the prison where the eldest son of Gaddafi Seif al-Islam, who had recently left for freedom under the amnesty law passed by parliament in Tobruk.
In this regard, it is worth mentioning that during the May battles in Tripoli, the Tripoli Revolutionary Brigade, commanded by Heisam al-Tajduri, loyal to Faiz Saraj, captured the Hadba prison guarded by Islamist militia, which contained high-ranking officers from the former army of Muammar Gaddafi, and just in case, as it were, by the way, destroyed the house in which the family of prison chief Khaled Sheriff lived. Perhaps it was Seif Al-Islam Gaddafi and one of the former VIP prisoners who could unite those former soldiers who for one reason or another do not trust Khalifa Haftar, but could become his hidden reserve.
Most likely, Haftaru should not count on a noticeable replenishment of the ranks of his supporters at the expense of the armed groups that already exist in western Libya, even those who are opposed to the Islamists today. According to the media close to Faiz Saraj, almost all politicians and police commanders in Tripolitania consider the Commander-in-Chief of the LNA persona non grata, and according to the adviser of the Presidential Security Council Hashim Bisher, Tripoli is “behind the red line”. Although such attempts marshal repeatedly made. In any case, the head of the military council, Sabrata Taher al-Garably, who got into the black list from 75 of the House of Representatives in Tobruk who was suspected of having links with terrorists, said the other day that Khaftar’s emissaries had repeatedly asked him to go to the LNA, but he refused. Although in today's Libya, any, even the most unexpected changes may occur.
OIL TRIANGLE
If LNA decides to go to the capital Tripoli, then in order to, oddly enough, it may seem at first glance, to support its main political rival. The fact is that at the end of May fierce fighting broke out in Tripoli between supporters of the NUP (Government of National Unity) and their opponents from the half-forgotten and terry jihadist “government of national salvation” led by Caliph Gweil.
It was then, at the most tense moment, that a letter from Khalifa Haftar appeared, addressed to the commanders of his loyal units, mainly in Zintan and Virrshifann. In it, the commander-in-chief of the LNA openly called on his soldiers to move to Tripoli in order to “lend a helping hand to the patriots,” and to be ready to repel the attack from the terrorists. The letter does not say directly that it is necessary to support specifically the government of Saraj, but it is quite clear that it is him who is meant by the Libyan marshal, who until recently called almost all non-subordinate armed groups in Tripolitania terrorist. Be that as it may, in the end, the loyal PNE detachments managed to almost completely free Tripoli from their Islamist opponents from the Transitional National Council (PNS).
Other circumstances also played into the hands of Khalifa Haftaru. The shooting of the Coptic pilgrims in the area of the Egyptian city of Minya untied the hands of Cairo. The main ally of Eastern politicians from Baida and Tobruk immediately launched a series of bombing attacks on Derna, an enclave of Islamists linked to Al-Qaida (banned in the Russian Federation) and other localities in which, according to Egyptian intelligence, terrorists were based. Libyan jihadists are closely related to the Egyptian and represent a serious threat to the security, stability and economy of the country of the pyramids. It is primarily about the organization "Ansar Sharia", until recently operating in both countries. Only recently, its Libyan branch declared about self-dissolution. Obviously, considerable merit in this belongs to the Egyptian special services and the “mukhabarat” of Khalifa Haftar.The anti-Kathar campaign unexpectedly launched in the region, launched not without the knowledge of the United States by Saudi Arabia, was immediately joined by the main allies of Haftar Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, as well as the interim government in Baida and the parliament in Tobruk, which also increased the military capabilities of the LNA and the political influence of the eastern center of power. Although Qatar’s influence on the Libyan events and on its Libyan “clients”, for example, from the Government of National Salvation led by Caliph Gweil or from the Islamist coalition “Dawn of Libya” that collapsed today, is much weaker than the Egyptians’s influence on politicians from Cyrenaica, nevertheless, among politicians, military, journalists, acting in the interests of Qatar and Turkey, called many Islamists. Among them, Ali Salabri, a prominent figure of the Muslim Brotherhood, the country's supreme mufti, Sadeq al-Garyani, the chairman of the Vatan party, one of the most odious "revolutionaries" who overthrew the Gaddafi regime, Abdel Hakim Belhadj, former Mayor of Tripoli, Mahdi Harati, etc. .
Some experts point to the recent signs of disagreement between the Islamists from the “Third Power” misorat coalition and the BZB, which also strengthens the position of Khalifa Haftar. The matter has not yet come to an armed conflict between them, but the split is obvious and the tension is increasing.
Jufra, until recently, remained a source of constant concern for Huftar and his allies. Here, "with the permission" of the Misurati militia, which also hated politicians from the eastern center of power in Tobruk and Baida, were settled by radical jihadists from BOB (Benghazi Defense Brigades), who were forced out of the capital of Cyrenaica by LNA.
Hence, on March 3 of this year, a combined detachment of militants from the BZB, the remnants of the “guard” Ibrahim Jadran, other Islamist groups associated with Al-Qaida, and then the organizational group Ansar al-Sharia, unexpectedly attacked oil facilities in Ras- Lanufe and Sidre, who have been under the control of Haftar since the end of last year. The LNA units were forced to retreat in order not to endanger the oil terminals. Attempts to Stop the Jihadist Offensive by Striking aviation The LNA, part of which was diverted to attack the Islamist enclave in Dern and their positions in Benghazi, was unsuccessful.
According to LNA representative Ahmed Al-Mismari, on the eve of the Islamist attacks, some members of the Presidential Council, who heads Faiz Saraj, met with the leaders of Al-Qaida and the Muslim Brotherhood, and coordinated strikes on the oil triangle. In addition, counterintelligence Khaftar arrested some senior officers and supporters of the LNA, in particular, were detained the chief of police of the city of Ajabiya and the mayor of the city of Bregi, who were accused of conspiracy with BZB. The House of Representatives in Tobruk issued a statement accusing Turkey and Qatar of supporting the Islamists and supplying them with weapons.
However, in a week and a little, Haftar’s troops managed to regain control of Ras Lanuf and Sidr. After that, the fighting spread to a larger area in the Dzhufra area. The fights began for another airbase, Tamnihint near Barak ash-Shaty, and subsided only after the Haftar and Saraj meeting in May in Abu Dhabi. The de facto truce in the Dzhufra area was an indirect confirmation of the fact that the leaders of the main rival factions could reach some non-advertised agreements that the Islamists could regard as a threat to themselves.
Most likely this circumstance was the reason to break the truce and start a military adventure. On May 18, as a result of a massive shelling and a sudden attack on Barak ash-Shaty, militants from the BZB and the Misurati militia, subordinate to the Ministry of Defense PNE in Tripoli, killed around 150 military LNA and civilians. According to representatives of Haftar, most of the soldiers were unarmed and returned from the parade. The Eastern Center of Power immediately accused the government of national unity in Tripoli of breaking the “truce” and proceeded to reciprocal military actions, in which Egyptian aviation took the most active part. She delivered a series of air strikes against Islamist positions in Jufra Huna, Waddana.
THE ROAD TO THE WORLD GOES THROUGH A WAR
Apparently, Faiz Saraj did not want a confrontation with Caliph Haftar. He not only stated that the government of national unity he headed did not give any orders to attack Barak al-Shaty, but also ordered the removal of Minister Mahdi Barhati and the commander of the “Third Force” forces, Jamal al-Treki, from their duties, without waiting the result of an official investigation of their involvement in the attack on Barak ash-Shaty.
The actions taken by Saraj provoked strong discontent among the Islamists and led to a split in the amorphous pro-government coalition, to a confrontation between the motley militia in the western part of Libya, which was written above. Violent battles broke out in Tripoli between supporters of the NUP and their opponents, who support the so-called national salvation government of the Caliph Gweil, which has already been forgotten and consists of terry jihadists. In the conditions of escalation of hostilities, the PNS sharply intensified in the hope of regaining the lost positions. As a result, the loyal PNE troops managed to completely free Tripoli from their opponents.
However, achieving a certain victory over the Islamists and changing the balance of forces in their favor at this stage does not mean securing a triumphal march around the country in the near future. The Islamists will try to consolidate and strike back at the LNA and its allies. In order to successfully confront jihadists, one could make some mutually beneficial alliance between Hoftar and Saraj. A number of indirect signs indicate that between them there may be tacit agreements reached, probably during their meeting in Abu Dhabi.
On the other hand, the resumption of hostilities is fraught with their subsequent escalation and the country's slide into a new large-scale civil war. The statement that a number of politicians in Libya and in neighboring Egypt, who believe that the attempts to solve the Libyan crisis by political means have completely exhausted themselves, also indicate that such a danger is real. In order to assemble a country from fragments, to restore law and order in it, by force of suppressing the resistance of all Islamists to the end, with the current degree of their radicalization and involvement in a profitable criminal business, it will take years. Sooner or later, will have to negotiate or fight without end to the last Libyan. So the triumphal procession in the near future most likely will not. No one.
Information