Popular Science: Do not believe the hype around the Russian hypersonic rocket
Foreign publications on existing and prospective Russian weapons or on military equipment can be divided into several types. Such articles can pretend to objectivity or downplay the effectiveness of Russian developments, while praising their own. Also, materials are often encountered in a screaming manner telling about the impending threat and the impossibility of protection against it. A kind of response to such publications are articles whose authors are trying to reassure the reader and make him understand that the samples described are in fact not as dangerous as claimed.
Recently, the Russian project of a promising hypersonic Zircon rocket has become the topic of active discussions. Very little is known about this product, but the hypersonic theme attracts special attention of the media and the general public. As a result, there are more and more new materials, the authors of which are trying to analyze the available information and draw conclusions. Some conclusions soon turn out to be a reason for refutation articles.
18 June, the American popular science publication Popular Science, has published an article by Kelsey D. Etherton with the saying title "Do not believe the hype around the Russian hypersonic rocket." As is clear from the title, the author tried to consider the existing situation around the Zircon project, primarily the background information surrounding this development. After examining the situation, he made certain conclusions.
The article received a curious subtitle: “it's not about speed, but how to use this speed”. The material was illustrated with a photograph of the Russian heavy nuclear-powered cruiser Peter the Great, at some distance from which the British destroyer HMS Dragon (D35) was captured. The caption to the photo indicated that the 1144 “Orlan” cruiser, according to which Peter the Great was built, will be able to get promising hypersonic Zircon missiles in the future.
His article KD. Atherton begins by pointing out the current state and future promising projects. He calls promising hypersonic missiles capable of overcoming modern anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense systems as the latest developments in a long arms race. The Russian Zirkon rocket can get into the arsenals already in the next 2018 year. At the same time, despite the boldest headlines, the limited amount of data available on this project makes one doubt that such a missile will become an undeniable threat to surface ships.
A few days ago, the Russian state-owned news agency Sputnik published an article about promising developments in the field of rocket weapons. According to Popular Science, Sputnik boasted the prowess of the rockets and noted that the British carrier strike groups will have nothing to answer to the Zircon missiles. The ships of the ship group simply do not have enough fuel to travel the required path and get to the line of interception of the incoming missiles in a timely manner.
The author recalls that anti-ship missiles that can threaten aircraft carriers are a fairly simple and cheap way to counter the deadly threat from the deck aviation. Nevertheless, such methods have long been known and taken into account by naval commanders. For many years, the command of the naval forces does not send aircraft carriers into sailing independently. They are accompanied by other ships carrying radar detection stations, anti-aircraft missiles and missile defense systems. Using proprietary detection systems and weaponSuch ships protect the aircraft carrier from the enemy's strike. In such conditions, according to KD Etherton, a serious threat to ships hypersonic missiles makes not only speed.
He urged to take into account that the highest flight speed is not the goal, but is a means of obtaining the desired results. Interception of the rocket is hampered not only by high speed, but also by how it uses it. To uncover this question, the author of Popular Science sought advice from James Acton, one of the directors of the Carnegie Endowment Program for International Peace. The expert expressed his opinion on hypersonic speeds and their application in practice.
J. Ecton believes that in the context of the Zircon rocket there are several important issues affecting its characteristics. So, he is interested in how far the ship can detect such a threat. In addition, we need information on how the rocket can maneuver in the final segment of the trajectory, near the target ship. According to J. Acton, these questions are much more interesting than the speed indicators by themselves.
Developing the topic of the need to analyze various characteristics and use of speed, KD. Atherton indicates that hypersonic speed alone will not produce the desired effect. The reason for this, he calls the features of the existing missile defense: they have already been built to fight targets, which have even greater speed than Zircon.
The author further quotes David Wright, a member of the Union of Concerned Scientists organization. That indicates that hypersonic flight speed is quite fast for a cruise missile. Nevertheless, if we recall the ballistic missiles, then these figures no longer look so outstanding.
Missile defense complexes designed to intercept intercontinental ballistic missiles are now only beginning to show real progress in the course of tests and inspections. In the event of a threat from short-range missiles, anti-aircraft systems of the Patriot family with a certain anti-missile potential can be used. Such complexes are in service with the United States and some foreign countries.
The Patriot missiles have a flight speed of up to M = 4, which is more than enough for the timely interception of an aircraft or a cruise missile of one or another existing model. Tests on the interception of ballistic missiles moving along pre-calculated trajectories, while completed with only partial success: some of the targets were destroyed, while others were able to reach their conditional target.
KD Atherton recalls that a successful interception of a target depends on its speed and early detection. Thus, the combat units of the Minuteman III intercontinental rocket on the descending part of the trajectory develop a speed of the order of M = 20, which is three or four times the expected maximum speed of the anti-ship Zircon. However, ballistic missiles fly in clear and predictable trajectories. First, the rocket goes up, and then goes down. Throughout its flight, the ballistic missile remains “in the clear sky” and can be freely monitored by ground-based radars or spacecraft.
J. Ecton recalled a well-known method of reducing the likelihood of a missile being detected during a flight. It consists in performing a flight at low altitude, beyond the capabilities of radars. The specialist recalled that the complexity of detecting a flying rocket directly depends on the flight profile: “even if you can detect something, you are unlikely to be able to intercept it if it performs maneuvers.” Missiles literally shy away from the means of destruction used to protect the ship.
The author notes that the flight profile will be able to tell about the combat power and effectiveness of Zircon missiles much more than just information about the maximum speed of flight. If a rocket can really move along a low-altitude trajectory, and in the final segment it will perform a sharp jerk with unpredictable maneuvering, then the results of its combat work may well correspond to what the “advertisement” says.
If the prospective Russian missile does not have such capabilities, then the existing anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense of foreign ships may be adequate to the existing threat. Nevertheless, the command and specialists responsible for shaping the appearance of a weapon are unlikely to approve a rocket with such features sharply limiting its effectiveness.
Since such information, which is of particular interest from the point of view of combat use, it is too early to say whether the Zircon missile will provide any significant advantages to the Russian naval the fleet.
The article "Don't believe the hype about the hypersonic missile" ends with another quote from James Acton. He argues that he is not inclined to deny the potential of a promising Russian hypersonic rocket and its future in terms of the threat to the ships of the United States. However, this opinion is based not only on published information about the speed of the rocket, since this parameter is not a fundamental and decisive factor. The media report that the Zircon will be able to fly six times faster than sound, and this will make the rocket unstoppable. However, the expert considers such statements only as speculation on the part of the uninformed.
***
The projects of hypersonic weapons of Russia and foreign countries traditionally attract special attention of specialists and the general public. Nevertheless, the developers of promising weapons and its future operators are in no hurry to disclose all the most interesting information, and are usually limited to only the most general statements. Most often, all available information is limited only to statements about possible weapons carriers, their purpose and maximum flight characteristics. In addition, information about some of the activities of the projects becomes public.
For example, it is known that, to date, the Russian defense industry has completed the development of a sea-based hypersonic anti-ship missile "Zircon", and since the spring of last year has been conducting its tests. The last test launch reported by the media took place in April of this year. This time, during the test, the prototype developed a speed of about M = 8. The carrier platform, flight range and launch results, however, were not specified.
The deadlines for the completion of work and the adoption of advanced weapons for armaments have not yet been specified. Representatives of the military and industry expressed the opportunity to begin operating new complexes after 2020, but the specific plans - even if they exist - remain unknown.
According to previously published information and estimates, the Russian industry is indeed developing a hypersonic maneuvering rocket 3М22 Zircon. It is alleged that the rocket will receive a combined guidance system with inertial navigation and active radar seeker. At speeds up to M = 8, the product will be able to fly at high altitudes and, in the final leg of the flight, decline to the target. The range, according to various estimates, will reach 400-500 km. As carriers of such weapons can be used ships and submarines of both existing types that have undergone appropriate modernization, and new fleet combat units.
Despite the minimum of available information, both domestic and foreign press rarely writes about promising projects. At the same time, domestic publications quite expectedly pay attention to the highest speed of flight and the associated benefits. Foreign journalists do the same, wishing to frighten their readers. Nevertheless, from time to time there are quite successful attempts at analysis.
The article “Don't believe the hype about the life hygiene missile” of Popular Science magazine was an attempt to understand the current situation and determine the real possibilities of a promising Russian missile system, about which very little is known. Despite the lack of accurate information, Kelsey D. Atherton and his consultants were able to come to very interesting and logical conclusions.
It must be admitted that the most interesting feature of the Zircon project, which is its "cornerstone" and which determines all the other features of the future rocket, is precisely the hypersonic flight speed on the cruise flight. Weapons of this kind are not yet available in the arsenals of even the leading countries of the world, which is of particular interest to such subjects from the military, specialists and society. As a result, it is the hypersonic flight speed, as well as methods for achieving it, that turn out to be the main topic of many discussions and publications.
However, the publication Popular Science reminded about other equally important aspects of the project. It's hard not to agree with KD Etherton and his consultants are that the prospective anti-ship missile must differ not only by the speed of flight. It is unlikely that the Russian fleet is interested in creating a rocket capable of reaching the specified area in the shortest possible time, but miss the target. A super speed weapon that can be intercepted with minimal effort is also of no interest to the customer. Thus, it is possible to present approximate requirements for a new rocket, which were observed during the development of the project.
According to fragmentary data, estimates, etc., all the points mentioned in the article Popular Science were taken into account by Russian designers when creating a promising missile system. As a result, the Zircon product will be able to hit targets not only due to the highest flight speed. This would mean that the doubts of American journalists and specialists were unfounded, the press hype had partially justified itself, and the Russian Navy would indeed receive weapons with unique combat capabilities, which posed a serious threat to the potential enemy ship’s connections.
The article "Don't believe in hype about missile hypersonic missile":
http://popsci.com/hype-russia-hypersonic-missile
Recently, the Russian project of a promising hypersonic Zircon rocket has become the topic of active discussions. Very little is known about this product, but the hypersonic theme attracts special attention of the media and the general public. As a result, there are more and more new materials, the authors of which are trying to analyze the available information and draw conclusions. Some conclusions soon turn out to be a reason for refutation articles.
18 June, the American popular science publication Popular Science, has published an article by Kelsey D. Etherton with the saying title "Do not believe the hype around the Russian hypersonic rocket." As is clear from the title, the author tried to consider the existing situation around the Zircon project, primarily the background information surrounding this development. After examining the situation, he made certain conclusions.
The article received a curious subtitle: “it's not about speed, but how to use this speed”. The material was illustrated with a photograph of the Russian heavy nuclear-powered cruiser Peter the Great, at some distance from which the British destroyer HMS Dragon (D35) was captured. The caption to the photo indicated that the 1144 “Orlan” cruiser, according to which Peter the Great was built, will be able to get promising hypersonic Zircon missiles in the future.
His article KD. Atherton begins by pointing out the current state and future promising projects. He calls promising hypersonic missiles capable of overcoming modern anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense systems as the latest developments in a long arms race. The Russian Zirkon rocket can get into the arsenals already in the next 2018 year. At the same time, despite the boldest headlines, the limited amount of data available on this project makes one doubt that such a missile will become an undeniable threat to surface ships.
A few days ago, the Russian state-owned news agency Sputnik published an article about promising developments in the field of rocket weapons. According to Popular Science, Sputnik boasted the prowess of the rockets and noted that the British carrier strike groups will have nothing to answer to the Zircon missiles. The ships of the ship group simply do not have enough fuel to travel the required path and get to the line of interception of the incoming missiles in a timely manner.
The author recalls that anti-ship missiles that can threaten aircraft carriers are a fairly simple and cheap way to counter the deadly threat from the deck aviation. Nevertheless, such methods have long been known and taken into account by naval commanders. For many years, the command of the naval forces does not send aircraft carriers into sailing independently. They are accompanied by other ships carrying radar detection stations, anti-aircraft missiles and missile defense systems. Using proprietary detection systems and weaponSuch ships protect the aircraft carrier from the enemy's strike. In such conditions, according to KD Etherton, a serious threat to ships hypersonic missiles makes not only speed.
He urged to take into account that the highest flight speed is not the goal, but is a means of obtaining the desired results. Interception of the rocket is hampered not only by high speed, but also by how it uses it. To uncover this question, the author of Popular Science sought advice from James Acton, one of the directors of the Carnegie Endowment Program for International Peace. The expert expressed his opinion on hypersonic speeds and their application in practice.
J. Ecton believes that in the context of the Zircon rocket there are several important issues affecting its characteristics. So, he is interested in how far the ship can detect such a threat. In addition, we need information on how the rocket can maneuver in the final segment of the trajectory, near the target ship. According to J. Acton, these questions are much more interesting than the speed indicators by themselves.
Developing the topic of the need to analyze various characteristics and use of speed, KD. Atherton indicates that hypersonic speed alone will not produce the desired effect. The reason for this, he calls the features of the existing missile defense: they have already been built to fight targets, which have even greater speed than Zircon.
The author further quotes David Wright, a member of the Union of Concerned Scientists organization. That indicates that hypersonic flight speed is quite fast for a cruise missile. Nevertheless, if we recall the ballistic missiles, then these figures no longer look so outstanding.
Missile defense complexes designed to intercept intercontinental ballistic missiles are now only beginning to show real progress in the course of tests and inspections. In the event of a threat from short-range missiles, anti-aircraft systems of the Patriot family with a certain anti-missile potential can be used. Such complexes are in service with the United States and some foreign countries.
The Patriot missiles have a flight speed of up to M = 4, which is more than enough for the timely interception of an aircraft or a cruise missile of one or another existing model. Tests on the interception of ballistic missiles moving along pre-calculated trajectories, while completed with only partial success: some of the targets were destroyed, while others were able to reach their conditional target.
KD Atherton recalls that a successful interception of a target depends on its speed and early detection. Thus, the combat units of the Minuteman III intercontinental rocket on the descending part of the trajectory develop a speed of the order of M = 20, which is three or four times the expected maximum speed of the anti-ship Zircon. However, ballistic missiles fly in clear and predictable trajectories. First, the rocket goes up, and then goes down. Throughout its flight, the ballistic missile remains “in the clear sky” and can be freely monitored by ground-based radars or spacecraft.
J. Ecton recalled a well-known method of reducing the likelihood of a missile being detected during a flight. It consists in performing a flight at low altitude, beyond the capabilities of radars. The specialist recalled that the complexity of detecting a flying rocket directly depends on the flight profile: “even if you can detect something, you are unlikely to be able to intercept it if it performs maneuvers.” Missiles literally shy away from the means of destruction used to protect the ship.
The author notes that the flight profile will be able to tell about the combat power and effectiveness of Zircon missiles much more than just information about the maximum speed of flight. If a rocket can really move along a low-altitude trajectory, and in the final segment it will perform a sharp jerk with unpredictable maneuvering, then the results of its combat work may well correspond to what the “advertisement” says.
If the prospective Russian missile does not have such capabilities, then the existing anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense of foreign ships may be adequate to the existing threat. Nevertheless, the command and specialists responsible for shaping the appearance of a weapon are unlikely to approve a rocket with such features sharply limiting its effectiveness.
Since such information, which is of particular interest from the point of view of combat use, it is too early to say whether the Zircon missile will provide any significant advantages to the Russian naval the fleet.
The article "Don't believe the hype about the hypersonic missile" ends with another quote from James Acton. He argues that he is not inclined to deny the potential of a promising Russian hypersonic rocket and its future in terms of the threat to the ships of the United States. However, this opinion is based not only on published information about the speed of the rocket, since this parameter is not a fundamental and decisive factor. The media report that the Zircon will be able to fly six times faster than sound, and this will make the rocket unstoppable. However, the expert considers such statements only as speculation on the part of the uninformed.
***
The projects of hypersonic weapons of Russia and foreign countries traditionally attract special attention of specialists and the general public. Nevertheless, the developers of promising weapons and its future operators are in no hurry to disclose all the most interesting information, and are usually limited to only the most general statements. Most often, all available information is limited only to statements about possible weapons carriers, their purpose and maximum flight characteristics. In addition, information about some of the activities of the projects becomes public.
For example, it is known that, to date, the Russian defense industry has completed the development of a sea-based hypersonic anti-ship missile "Zircon", and since the spring of last year has been conducting its tests. The last test launch reported by the media took place in April of this year. This time, during the test, the prototype developed a speed of about M = 8. The carrier platform, flight range and launch results, however, were not specified.
The deadlines for the completion of work and the adoption of advanced weapons for armaments have not yet been specified. Representatives of the military and industry expressed the opportunity to begin operating new complexes after 2020, but the specific plans - even if they exist - remain unknown.
According to previously published information and estimates, the Russian industry is indeed developing a hypersonic maneuvering rocket 3М22 Zircon. It is alleged that the rocket will receive a combined guidance system with inertial navigation and active radar seeker. At speeds up to M = 8, the product will be able to fly at high altitudes and, in the final leg of the flight, decline to the target. The range, according to various estimates, will reach 400-500 km. As carriers of such weapons can be used ships and submarines of both existing types that have undergone appropriate modernization, and new fleet combat units.
Despite the minimum of available information, both domestic and foreign press rarely writes about promising projects. At the same time, domestic publications quite expectedly pay attention to the highest speed of flight and the associated benefits. Foreign journalists do the same, wishing to frighten their readers. Nevertheless, from time to time there are quite successful attempts at analysis.
The article “Don't believe the hype about the life hygiene missile” of Popular Science magazine was an attempt to understand the current situation and determine the real possibilities of a promising Russian missile system, about which very little is known. Despite the lack of accurate information, Kelsey D. Atherton and his consultants were able to come to very interesting and logical conclusions.
It must be admitted that the most interesting feature of the Zircon project, which is its "cornerstone" and which determines all the other features of the future rocket, is precisely the hypersonic flight speed on the cruise flight. Weapons of this kind are not yet available in the arsenals of even the leading countries of the world, which is of particular interest to such subjects from the military, specialists and society. As a result, it is the hypersonic flight speed, as well as methods for achieving it, that turn out to be the main topic of many discussions and publications.
However, the publication Popular Science reminded about other equally important aspects of the project. It's hard not to agree with KD Etherton and his consultants are that the prospective anti-ship missile must differ not only by the speed of flight. It is unlikely that the Russian fleet is interested in creating a rocket capable of reaching the specified area in the shortest possible time, but miss the target. A super speed weapon that can be intercepted with minimal effort is also of no interest to the customer. Thus, it is possible to present approximate requirements for a new rocket, which were observed during the development of the project.
According to fragmentary data, estimates, etc., all the points mentioned in the article Popular Science were taken into account by Russian designers when creating a promising missile system. As a result, the Zircon product will be able to hit targets not only due to the highest flight speed. This would mean that the doubts of American journalists and specialists were unfounded, the press hype had partially justified itself, and the Russian Navy would indeed receive weapons with unique combat capabilities, which posed a serious threat to the potential enemy ship’s connections.
The article "Don't believe in hype about missile hypersonic missile":
http://popsci.com/hype-russia-hypersonic-missile
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